Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

[Friar Fanatic]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

And of those 32 only 11 of them came at Petco. All it takes is one good look at the numbers to tell there was a huge difference between him hitting at home and on the road. Just by looking at his career splits without breaking it down to just the Padres he has hit 53 more home runs on the road and is slugging 113 points higher on the road.

Or lets take 2008 and 2009 his biggest power years.

In 2008 at home he had a .247 avg 14HR and slugged .433
on the road those numbers are .308 avg 22HR and slugged .578

In 2009 at home he had a .244 avg 12HR and slugged .446
on the road those numbers are .306 avg 28 HR and slugged .643

It is clear to see there is a huge difference between those numbers. You just might be underestimating the effect Petco has on hitters and lefties even more for that matter.

Hmm what I am saying seems to be getting confused. I do acknowledge that Petco has a big effect, but you don't play 162 games at Petco. AGon was able to put up great numbers on the Padres and playing half his games in Petco.

My point is great hitters will put up great numbers no matter the team.

[bkrich83]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

HR's for LHH at Petco is far and away the single most negatively impacted result from an AB at any stadium in baseball. A LHH HR has a .59 factor at Petco, meaning only 59% of HR's at an average park are HR's at Petco. Then you take Arlington, which is 1.19, literally twice the number of HR's as Petco.

These factors are backed up by massive samples of data and they are simple equations without any sort of bias. There's really no arguing against them. Petco is a beast on lefty power hitters.

Killed Nevin as well, right center field was his power zone. If you look at the HR's he hit at Qualcomm when he was putting up good numbers a large portion of them were to right center field. At Petco that was near impossible, which turned him in to a dead pull hitter, effectively killing his effectiveness.

I truly hate Petco park for so many reasons, this is just another one of them. I don't mind a pitcher friendly park, but it's ridiculous. Although there isn't enough room on the forum to hold the list of complaints about Petco park, both as a baseball fan, but as a visitor of the yard.

[ZB9]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

So let me get this straight. Petco is a pitchers park? What a revelation lol

anyway, here's the "park factor" stats for 2012 so far

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

[Friar Fanatic]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

Killed Nevin as well, right center field was his power zone. If you look at the HR's he hit at Qualcomm when he was putting up good numbers a large portion of them were to right center field. At Petco that was near impossible, which turned him in to a dead pull hitter, effectively killing his effectiveness.

I truly hate Petco park for so many reasons, this is just another one of them. I don't mind a pitcher friendly park, but it's ridiculous. Although there isn't enough room on the forum to hold the list of complaints about Petco park, both as a baseball fan, but as a visitor of the yard.

This is simply not true. He had 26 home runs his first year on the Padres. He was still very effective as a hitter batting .290 with 105 RBI.

Just like I have showed with Adrian Gonzalez, good hitters will produce.

[Coug00]

So let me get this straight. Petco is a pitchers park? What a revelation lol

anyway, here's the "park factor" stats for 2012 so far
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

Meh. Statcorner has much better park factor measurements.

[Friar Fanatic]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

To bring Matt Kemp back into the discussion.

Matt Kemp's skill set would dominate Petco if he played there on a consistent basis. With the deep corners his doubles and triples would rise dramatically.

However, I do not believe Hamilton would be able to produce the same.

Even though I can't stand Kemp, beirng a Padres fan and all, I have to say without a doubt he's one of the top 3 hitters in the NL. Maybe in all of MLB. For that reason I will take him over Hamilton.

[BatsareBugs]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

This is simply not true. He had 26 home runs his first year on the Padres. He was still very effective as a hitter batting .290 with 105 RBI.

Just like I have showed with Adrian Gonzalez, good hitters will produce.

Actually bkrich is right, Phil Nevin's power in his prime (or roids, whatever you want to call it), was mainly to RCF and at Qualcomm, which in itself was a pitching park in its own way, the power alley was not as deep. A 411 power alley certainly hurt Nevin, who probably was still capable of hitting 35 or so home runs considered he had 13 a year before in just 1/3rd of the season played. After the 2005 season, Nevin admitted that he had tried to pull the ball more in his second season at PETCO Park, which explained the drastic downturn that season which was followed by a decent 2006 season.

[snepp]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

Even single season park factors have to be taken with a grain of salt.


Partial season park factors are completely worthless.

[ZB9]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

Even single season park factors have to be taken with a grain of salt.


Partial season park factors are completely worthless.

the link i posted goes back to 2001

The only park in the top 2 just about every season is Coors field. Rangers ball park is usually in the top 12 but it trades places with parks like Yankee stadium and Fenway park at the top, depending on the year.

[ZB9]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

Meh. Statcorner has much better park factor measurements.

Does it use a different formula?

[ZB9]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

btw, Adrian Beltre's best power season came when he was with the Dodgers, not when he was in hitters parks in Fenway or Arlington. He hit 48 home runs playing half of his games in Dodger Stadium fwiw

[snepp]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

the link i posted goes back to 2001

Yes, but you specifically mentioned, and linked to, the 2012 PF's.

That's why I mentioned how completely worthless a sample size like this is, to keep people who may not know from taking them at face value.

Does it use a different formula?

They use a more comprehensive methodology (ESPN PF's are about as basic as you can get), and most importantly they provide splits for right and left handed hitters.

[Friar Fanatic]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

Actually bkrich is right, Phil Nevin's power in his prime (or roids, whatever you want to call it), was mainly to RCF and at Qualcomm, which in itself was a pitching park in its own way, the power alley was not as deep. A 411 power alley certainly hurt Nevin, who probably was still capable of hitting 35 or so home runs considered he had 13 a year before in just 1/3rd of the season played. After the 2005 season, Nevin admitted that he had tried to pull the ball more in his second season at PETCO Park, which explained the drastic downturn that season which was followed by a decent 2006 season.

The point is Nevin was still very effective, just like AGon. I have said this before but for some reason people are not listening. I agree Petco is rough on power hitting lefties, but a great power hitting lefty can still hit out 10-15 HRs in Petco while hitting 20+ on the road giving him a great HR season. You don't have to put up 30 home runs to right field in Petco.

The thing about AGon is he adjusted, majority of his home runs were opposite field. He was able to adjust and take the ball the other way. Once again this is a result of him being a great hitter. Great hitters will produce, that's all there is to it.

[ZB9]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

Yes, but you specifically mentioned, and linked to, the 2012 PF's.

That's why I mentioned how completely worthless a sample size like this is, to keep people who may not know from taking them at face value.

I think everyone realizes that you look at any partial stats or partail seasons with a grain of salt, not just "park factors"

They use a more comprehensive methodology (ESPN PF's are about as basic as you can get), and most importantly they provide splits for right and left handed hitters.

Cool perhaps you can list theirs? I find that site a pain to navigate.

Does that site have players' OPS+? because im curious who's OPS is higher between Kemp and Hamilton

[bkrich83]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

This is simply not true. He had 26 home runs his first year on the Padres. He was still very effective as a hitter batting .290 with 105 RBI.

Just like I have showed with Adrian Gonzalez, good hitters will produce.

Which was down from the 41 he hit in his previous full season. He lost a ton of HR's to RCF. I was there I saw it.

You can not argue that Petco does not have a significant impact on hitting. I've seen too many guys square up on balls just to see it dies before it even gets to the track.

Some interesting quotes.

Norcross wrote, “Playing anywhere other than Petco, Ludwick figures he’d have twice as many homers. “I could be at 10 instead of five, no doubt about it, which builds confidence,” he said. “I’ve told everyone, I’ve had a rough go here (since coming to San Diego from St. Louis last July). “But I think the difference between last year and this year is I’ve made a lot of hard outs, more consistent, hard contact. “Do the fans in San Diego see that? Probably not. Because all they’re doing is looking at the box scores. But my manager sees it. He tells me. And my teammates see it.”
Bartlett also said, “I don’t want this to sound like an excuse, but for the offense, it’s better to get on the road.”

Last week, Tim Sullivan of signonsandiego.com quoted Chase Headley as saying, “I don’t care who you bring into this ballpark, it’s not going to be an offensive club.”
According to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com, Adrian Gonzalez has been quoted as saying, "If you put the best lineup in baseball in our park, the numbers would be bad," He also reportedly said, "When we get on that plane out of San Diego, every hitter is a happy hitter."

Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko were very outspoken about their displeasure with Petco Park. Nevin was quoted as saying, "That's definitely out at Qualcomm, Nevin said a day later. I'll be honest, there's not a park in baseball I would have even thought twice about it not being a homer. I've never hit a ball that good and have it not go out, I know that." Nevin also referred to Petco Park as, “Barry Bonds-proof.”

It’s not just our players taking notice. Current Pirates Manager Clint Hurdle saw a lot of games in Petco Park during his tenure as the Rockies Manager. Hurdle recently said, "The damage that was done was to the home team when this park was built," when asked about Petco Park.

Catcher A. J. Pierzynski has said, "In this park, just throw it down the middle and let them hit it and let the guys in the outfield run it down,

http://www.friarhood.com/voice-of-the-fan/visitors-pass/961-this-is-a-symbol-of-what-it-takes.html