2016 Trade Deadline Thread

**WaitTilNextYear** · 07-30-2016, 07:12 PM

Re: 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sources: Padres sending $10-12 million to Braves in the Kemp-Olivera trade.</p>— Dennis Lin (@sdutdennislin) <a href="https://twitter.com/sdutdennislin/status/759532717931241473">July 30, 2016</a></blockquote>

**LowerWolf** · 07-30-2016, 07:14 PM

Re: 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

From the DOB story:

The San Diego Union-Tribune reported the Padres would pay the Braves between $10 million and $12 million as part of the deal.

That means the Braves would end up paying Kemp somewhere between $13.5 million to $15.5 million annually for three seasons.

**WaitTilNextYear** · 07-30-2016, 07:57 PM

Re: 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

Originally posted by LowerWolf

From the DOB story:

The San Diego Union-Tribune reported the Padres would pay the Braves between $10 million and $12 million as part of the deal.

That means the Braves would end up paying Kemp somewhere between $13.5 million to $15.5 million annually for three seasons.

If the deal is Matt Kemp plus 10 million for Olivera straight up, my math does not agree with theirs...

According to B-Ref, Kemp's remaining contract is 4 years (including this one) at $21.75MM per annum. That's $87MM total. But, the Dodgers are taking care of $3.5MM per season all 4 years, so we subtract out $14MM to get $73MM.

But let's also pro-rate this year's amount. The Padres have played 103 out of 162 games, or 63.6% of the season. Another way to think of that is there is 36.4% of his salary left to pay this season: (.364 * $21.75MM = $7.92MM total) - (.364 * $3.5MM = $1.27MM Dodgers share) = $6.65MM left this season for San Diego to pay. So instead of $73MM due from now to 2019, it's actually $61.4MM ($6.65MM + 3 x $18.25MM).

San Diego taking on all of Hector Olivera's contract (due $55.85MM thru 2020, or about $30MM if you take into account the Dodgers' share and a prorated 2016 amount) saves the Braves $30MM. If we use that as an offset to Kemp's remaining obligation, $61.4MM - $30MM = $31.4MM.

If the Padres are kicking in an additional $10MM, then we subtract again: $31.4MM - $10MM = $21.4MM (this is the amount the Braves are on the hook for thru 2019 with Kemp relative to not having Kemp and keeping Olivera).

If Atlanta is paying the $5MM to finish off the rest of Kemp's 2016 salary, then they're on the hook for $16.4MM in additional salary for 2017, 2018, and 2019 total compared to keeping Olivera. So the Braves are really getting Kemp for about $5-6MM per season more than not having Kemp/keeping Olivera, not the $13-$15MM figure.

**Sportsforever** · 07-30-2016, 07:59 PM

Re: 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

Originally posted by WaitTilNextYear

If the deal is Matt Kemp plus 10 million for Olivera straight up, my math does not agree with theirs...

According to B-Ref, Kemp's remaining contract is 4 years (including this one) at $21.75MM per annum. That's $87MM total. But, the Dodgers are taking care of $3.5MM per season all 4 years, so we subtract out $14MM to get $73MM.

But let's also pro-rate this year's amount. The Padres have played 103 out of 162 games, or 63.6% of the season. Another way to think of that is there is 36.4% of his salary left to pay this season: (.364 * $21.75MM = $7.92MM total) - (.364 * $3.5MM = $1.27MM Dodgers share) = $6.65MM left this season for San Diego to pay. So instead of $73MM due from now to 2019, it's actually $61.4MM ($6.65MM + 3 x $18.25MM).

San Diego taking on all of Hector Olivera's contract (due $55.85MM thru 2020, or about $30MM if you take into account the Dodgers' share and a prorated 2016 amount) saves the Braves $30MM, if we use that as an offset to Kemp's remaining obligation, $61.4MM - $30MM = $31.4MM.

If the Padres are kicking in an additional $10MM, then we subtract again: $31.4MM - $10MM = $21.4MM (this is the amount the Braves are on the hook for thru 2019 with Kemp relative to not having Kemp and keeping Olivera).

If Atlanta is paying the $5MM to finish off the rest of Kemp's 2016 salary, then they're on the hook for $16.4MM in additional salary for 2017, 2018, and 2019 total compared to keeping Olivera. So the Braves are really getting Kemp for about $5-6MM per season more than not having Kemp/keeping Olivera, not the $13-$15MM figure.

I like your math...and if it's correct, not a bad deal at all!

**WaitTilNextYear** · 07-30-2016, 08:02 PM

Re: 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

Originally posted by Sportsforever

I like your math...and if it's correct, not a bad deal at all!

Well, the math is certainly correct. What we don't know is if the underlying assumptions are correct (how much $$$ is actually going to Atlanta from SD and if Olivera is really heading back to SD with the Padres eating his entire contract).

**SPTO** · 07-30-2016, 08:02 PM

Re: 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

Wow, here's an interesting detail on the Kemp/Olivera deal. The Padres would be free of Olivera's 28.5 mil contract if he goes to jail. A mere conviction alone wouldn't do it. Olivera would have to see prison time.

All this from Ken Rosenthal on MLB-N.

**LowerWolf** · 07-30-2016, 08:02 PM

Re: 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

That figure in DOB's story isn't taking into account Olivera's contract; it's just what the Braves will pay Kemp.

When you factor in Olivera's contract, the number is much closer to yours.

Good job with the salary breakdown.

**Sportsforever** · 07-30-2016, 08:03 PM

Re: 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

Originally posted by SPTO

Wow, here's an interesting detail on the Kemp/Olivera deal. The Padres would be free of Olivera's 28.5 mil contract if he goes to jail. A mere conviction alone wouldn't do it. Olivera would have to see prison time.

All this from Ken Rosenthal on MLB-N.

Why would he go to jail? He already had his day in court and was not convicted...is there something I'm missing?

**SPTO** · 07-30-2016, 08:07 PM

Re: 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

Originally posted by Sportsforever

Why would he go to jail? He already had his day in court and was not convicted...is there something I'm missing?

He mentioned it's a domestic abuse case. I dunno anything more than that. I'm repeating what he said just a few minutes ago. Maybe I misheard but here are Rosenthal's tweets:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sources: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Padres?src=hash">#Padres</a> can escape $28.5M obligation to Olivera only if he goes to prison for domestic-violence charge. Case still pending.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/759548658287247360">July 31, 2016</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Padres?src=hash">#Padres</a> expected to DFA Olivera, as others have reported. Mere conviction would not allow SD to void deal. He would need to go to prison.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/759548664020860928">July 31, 2016</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: According to rules, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Padres?src=hash">#Padres</a> cannot void Olivera’s deal. If he goes to prison, he would not be paid during time he could not work.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/759550869037776896">July 31, 2016</a></blockquote>
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**WaitTilNextYear** · 07-30-2016, 08:07 PM

Re: 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

Originally posted by LowerWolf

That figure in DOB's story isn't taking into account Olivera's contract; it's just what the Braves will pay Kemp.

When you factor in Olivera's contract, the number is much closer to yours.

Good job with the salary breakdown.

I see what was meant now originally. It was basically taking Kemp's salary minus the $10-12MM and dividing by 3.

I'd think Braves fans would be more interested in what the total burden would be to their team after doing the deal, however.

**Sportsforever** · 07-30-2016, 08:50 PM

Re: 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

Deal just went official...Matt Kemp for Hector Olivera. Braves will in essence pay Kemp $8M/year for the last 3 years of his contract, if they keep him. I am still in shock they actually got something for Hector Olivera...unreal

**ShowTyme15** · 07-30-2016, 08:55 PM

Re: 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

Marlins now looking at Ivan Nova after Colin Rea left today's start with elbow pain.

**Speedy** · 07-30-2016, 08:55 PM

Re: 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

Why are they paying a nice penny of Kemp''s salary, and then eating Olivera''s salary by DFA'ING him?

I must be missing something.

**LowerWolf** · 07-30-2016, 09:01 PM

Re: 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

Originally posted by Speedy

Why are they paying a nice penny of Kemp''s salary, and then eating Olivera''s salary by DFA'ING him?

I must be missing something.

They're not.

From what I read, the money we got is just the Dodgers' portion of Kemp's contract. So we're on the hook for about $18M of his salary per season. We'll end up paying about $8.5M more season than if we had kept Olivera.

**franch1se** · 07-30-2016, 09:05 PM

Re: 2016 Trade Deadline Thread

The 10 mil padres are sending the braves is the 10 mil the dodgers send us yearly.

Did we just get out of Kemp's contract??

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2016 Trade Deadline Thread

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