I'll play along with your theory. I say the most likely playoff teams are Cleveland, Houston, Boston. You can include KC or TB but they seem destined for a WC game. Going strictly off of who is most likely making it, the pitching rotations look like so for a 7 game series: (I'm spitballing here, I don't know how these managers will try to slot their rotations and manage days of rest, home/away, etc.)
Game 1: Severino vs. Kluber/Keuchel/Sale
Game 2: Tanaka vs. Carrasco/McCullers/Price
Game 3: CC vs. Salazar/Morton/Pomeranz
(Guessing here that NY won't use a young arm like Severino on 3 days' rest)
Game 4: Montgomery vs. Kluber/Keuchel/Sale
Game 5: Severino vs. Carrasco/McCullers/Price
Game 6: Tanaka vs. Salazar/Morton/Pomeranz
Game 7: CC vs. Kluber/Keuchel/Sale
I'm sure you'll argue it's not hands down but I've boldened the matchups I think are tilted against NY.
Getting a Sonny Gray makes Game 3 a very winnable, maybe even highly favorable option for the Yankees. Then they can hope Montgomery doesn't kill their bullpen and/or that Tanaka and Severino can steal games 5-6. It's the same reason why Houston and LA on the NL side wants Gray. He's outstanding.
Regarding Houston, who you seem to be treating like a bunch of scrubs: the last time they were in the playoffs, they beat NY and took the eventual champs to 5 games in the ALDS with a much lesser roster than they have currently. Fully healthy, they are the clear-cut best team in the AL. That doesn't mean they'd beat the Indians or Red Sox or Yankees, but they should be heavily favored in every playoff series.
There are 3 main points I want taken away from this whole exchange:
1. Playoff runs aren't guaranteed on an annual basis for the Yankees anymore
2. Torres isn't untouchably good, or you would have never gotten him for a rental reliever. The Cubs felt they'd be just fine with a middle IF 3-some of Baez/Russell/Ian Happ for their own foreseeable future. So please, don't act like he's some all-time great talent in the minors. You guys are acting like he's 20 year old A-Rod.
3. All Star caliber pitchers with years of control like Gray aren't available very often and are a lot more valuable than closers like Chapman, who you got Torres for.
I've said my piece.
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