"This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

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  • SlimKibbles
    Supporter
    • Apr 2004
    • 7276

    #511
    Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

    Originally posted by PhantomPain
    ...So my question is, does any team in MLB or otherwise, user sabermetrics like the above and had success? While it makes sense what you propose, I have not personally seen a team go to that extreme in their lineup. Of course, I can barely catch a game in the past 6 years due to having 3 kids so maybe teams do it and I just haven't seen it yet. But I am curious if there is a success story or if this is all "looks good on paper" stuff?
    You ever seen or read Moneyball? If not, you need to. The Oakland A's had success with it in the early 00's. Theo Epstein, among others, has used some sabermetrics/quantitative analysis when running the Red Sox and I believe he still has an analyst on staff with the Cubs.
    MLB: Cincinnati Reds
    NFL: Cincinnati Bengals
    NCAA Hoops: Xavier Musketeers
    NCAA Football: Miami Hurricanes
    NHL: Calgary Flames

    "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." - Edmund Burke

    "The wisest men follow their own direction." - Euripides

    Comment

    • TheShizNo1
      Asst 2 the Comm Manager
      • Mar 2007
      • 26341

      #512
      Awesome breakdown.
      Originally posted by Mo
      Just once I'd like to be the one they call a jerk off.
      Originally posted by Mo
      You underestimate my laziness
      Originally posted by Mo
      **** ya


      ...

      Comment

      • lonewolf371
        MVP
        • Aug 2009
        • 3420

        #513
        Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

        Originally posted by PhantomPain
        Nice breakdown

        Now I have a serious question for you. I played baseball for 18 years (from little league through semi-pro) and am now 39 years old. My point is, I am an old school guy. The sabermetrics are new to me and so far I have just shrugged them off. With that said, I am starting to see why people like them.

        So my question is, does any team in MLB or otherwise, user sabermetrics like the above and had success? While it makes sense what you propose, I have not personally seen a team go to that extreme in their lineup. Of course, I can barely catch a game in the past 6 years due to having 3 kids so maybe teams do it and I just haven't seen it yet. But I am curious if there is a success story or if this is all "looks good on paper" stuff?
        I believe the Oakland Athletics, Tampa Bay Rays, and Boston Red Sox are all big fans of sabermetrics. I think more MLB teams than not now employ sabermetric analysts.

        The Reds are a little old school, though.
        NFL: Indianapolis Colts (12-6)
        NBA: Indiana Pacers (42-13)
        MLB: Cincinnati Reds (0-0)
        NHL: Detroit Red Wings (26-20-12)
        NCAA: Purdue Boilermakers (FB: 1-11, BB: 15-12), Michigan Wolverines (FB: 7-6, BB: 19-7, H: 15-10-3)

        Comment

        • slickdtc
          Grayscale
          • Aug 2004
          • 17125

          #514
          Those teams may use it, but do they to the extent of basing their lineup around it every day. The speedsters in the 1 and 2 hole, power guys 3-5, etc is still prevalent. What I'm saying is there a manager who heavily uses sabermetrics? I guess too many feelings get hurt if Jonny Power isn't hitting HR's and gets dropped out of his usual spot.
          NHL - Philadelphia Flyers
          NFL - Buffalo Bills
          MLB - Cincinnati Reds


          Originally posted by Money99
          And how does one levy a check that will result in only a slight concussion? Do they set their shoulder-pads to 'stun'?

          Comment

          • jasontoddwhitt
            MVP
            • May 2003
            • 8095

            #515
            Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

            Baseball still has too many old school managers in the game. I can't think of any team that really uses sabermetrics when it comes to the everday lineup. I know Dusty sure doesn't, with him insisting that Zach Cozart hit lead off. Even during the Moneyball Era of the A's, Billy Beane and Art Howe routinely butted heads on day-to-day decisions.

            Shockingly, the only manager I can think of who embraced statistics was...Earl Weaver, and he pre-dated the sabermetric movement.

            Sabermetrics has pretty much invaded most of the front offices in baseball to some degree (even the Reds have a department like this, though I'm sure it's a closet in the basement). However, it still really hasn't trickled down to the field.
            Last edited by jasontoddwhitt; 08-03-2012, 11:28 AM.
            Time Warp Baseball (OOTP 25)

            Comment

            • slickdtc
              Grayscale
              • Aug 2004
              • 17125

              #516
              So what's the point? If the guys the front office gets aren't being utilized as intended.

              I like seeing new face managers. I'm surprised a down on their luck franchise, maybe like the Royals, haven't given a hot shot sabermetric manager hopeful a shot.
              NHL - Philadelphia Flyers
              NFL - Buffalo Bills
              MLB - Cincinnati Reds


              Originally posted by Money99
              And how does one levy a check that will result in only a slight concussion? Do they set their shoulder-pads to 'stun'?

              Comment

              • PhantomPain
                MVP
                • Jan 2003
                • 3512

                #517
                Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

                Originally posted by jasontoddwhitt
                Baseball still has too many old school managers in the game. I can't think of any team that really uses sabermetrics when it comes to the everday lineup. I know Dusty sure doesn't, with him insisting that Zach Cozart hit lead off. Even during the Moneyball Era of the A's, Billy Beane and Art Howe routinely butted heads on day-to-day decisions.

                Shockingly, the only manager I can think of who embraced statistics was...Earl Weaver, and he pre-dated the sabermetric movement.

                Sabermetrics has pretty much invaded most of the front offices in baseball to some degree (even the Reds have a department like this, though I'm sure it's a closet in the basement). However, it still really hasn't trickled down to the field.
                This is what I was talking about but didn't communicate it very well. I was curious if it were used in a large sample as a lineup philosophy. I would love to see a terrible team try it and see if there was a positive effect.
                #WeAreUK

                Comment

                • lonewolf371
                  MVP
                  • Aug 2009
                  • 3420

                  #518
                  Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

                  Originally posted by slickdtc
                  Those teams may use it, but do they to the extent of basing their lineup around it every day. The speedsters in the 1 and 2 hole, power guys 3-5, etc is still prevalent. What I'm saying is there a manager who heavily uses sabermetrics? I guess too many feelings get hurt if Jonny Power isn't hitting HR's and gets dropped out of his usual spot.
                  Originally posted by jasontoddwhitt
                  Baseball still has too many old school managers in the game. I can't think of any team that really uses sabermetrics when it comes to the everday lineup. I know Dusty sure doesn't, with him insisting that Zach Cozart hit lead off. Even during the Moneyball Era of the A's, Billy Beane and Art Howe routinely butted heads on day-to-day decisions.

                  Shockingly, the only manager I can think of who embraced statistics was...Earl Weaver, and he pre-dated the sabermetric movement.

                  Sabermetrics has pretty much invaded most of the front offices in baseball to some degree (even the Reds have a department like this, though I'm sure it's a closet in the basement). However, it still really hasn't trickled down to the field.
                  Sabermetrics isn't about daily lineup adjustments as much as getting maximum value for minimum cost. It has changed the face of baseball. Ten years ago players were judged on batting average and home runs. Pitchers were judged on wins and ERA. Now roster decisions are made using entirely different metrics such as OBP, xFIP, and WAR, particularly for guys that have experience at the major league level (for the minors you still need to rely heavily on scouting).

                  Look at some of the major contracts handed out recently and compare it to their WAR. Sabermetricians will tell you that Joey Votto has been worth roughly $24 million so far in his major league career. His new contract pays him $21 million (but includes age regression which accounts for that $3 million). Mark Teixeira's contract with the Yankees was for $22.5 million per year; prior to that his WAR value was around $20 million. And so on and so forth.
                  NFL: Indianapolis Colts (12-6)
                  NBA: Indiana Pacers (42-13)
                  MLB: Cincinnati Reds (0-0)
                  NHL: Detroit Red Wings (26-20-12)
                  NCAA: Purdue Boilermakers (FB: 1-11, BB: 15-12), Michigan Wolverines (FB: 7-6, BB: 19-7, H: 15-10-3)

                  Comment

                  • Buckeyes_Doc
                    In Dalton I Trust
                    • Jan 2009
                    • 11918

                    #519
                    Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

                    Okay, so with tonight's win the Reds win the series against the Pirates. A win tomorrow and the Reds sweep the 4th straight NL central team they've faced. The Reds are 22-3 in the last 25 games. Dominant.
                    Last edited by Buckeyes_Doc; 08-04-2012, 09:30 PM.
                    Ohio State - Reds - Bengals - Blackhawks - Bulls

                    Comment

                    • TheShizNo1
                      Asst 2 the Comm Manager
                      • Mar 2007
                      • 26341

                      #520
                      Went to the game tonight, crowd was electric in the bottom of the 8th and top of the 9th. As soon as the bullpen door opened for Chapman, everyone was on their feet. I can't imagine the pressure that dude faces.

                      Rolen runs like an old man lol. I thought he was gonna break down on the way to third.

                      I went to games this time last year and don't remember nearly this many people at games. Great time to be a Red's fan.
                      Originally posted by Mo
                      Just once I'd like to be the one they call a jerk off.
                      Originally posted by Mo
                      You underestimate my laziness
                      Originally posted by Mo
                      **** ya


                      ...

                      Comment

                      • SlimKibbles
                        Supporter
                        • Apr 2004
                        • 7276

                        #521
                        Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

                        Originally posted by TheShizNo1
                        ...I went to games this time last year and don't remember nearly this many people at games. ...
                        That's because they kind of sucked. They didn't have great attendance earlier this week when the Padres were in town, which is disappointing but sort of understandable with the Olympics going on. I try to do my part and attend games when I can, but attendance for non-weekend Reds games is pretty pathetic. I know people working and fighting traffic factor into all of that but still. The team with the best record in baseball should be getting at least 30,000 in attendance every night even if it's during the week. The Cardinals can pull that off. Same thing went on in 2010.

                        Check out the attendance for games late in 2010: http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/schedule...incinnati-reds

                        I suspect we'll see something similar this season.

                        (Note: I do understand that St. Louis has a bigger pool to draw from. And, folks in Reds Country like yourself, in areas 30+ miles away from downtown Cincinnati are more likely to go on weekends than during the week.)
                        MLB: Cincinnati Reds
                        NFL: Cincinnati Bengals
                        NCAA Hoops: Xavier Musketeers
                        NCAA Football: Miami Hurricanes
                        NHL: Calgary Flames

                        "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." - Edmund Burke

                        "The wisest men follow their own direction." - Euripides

                        Comment

                        • lonewolf371
                          MVP
                          • Aug 2009
                          • 3420

                          #522
                          Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

                          Originally posted by SlimKibbles
                          That's because they kind of sucked. They didn't have great attendance earlier this week when the Padres were in town, which is disappointing but sort of understandable with the Olympics going on. I try to do my part and attend games when I can, but attendance for non-weekend Reds games is pretty pathetic. I know people working and fighting traffic factor into all of that but still. The team with the best record in baseball should be getting at least 30,000 in attendance every night even if it's during the week. The Cardinals can pull that off. Same thing went on in 2010.

                          Check out the attendance for games late in 2010: http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/schedule...incinnati-reds

                          I suspect we'll see something similar this season.

                          (Note: I do understand that St. Louis has a bigger pool to draw from. And, folks in Reds Country like yourself, in areas 30+ miles away from downtown Cincinnati are more likely to go on weekends than during the week.)
                          I'll put it this way: if I lived in the Cincinnati area, there's no way I wouldn't be going to multiple games most weeks.

                          The best way to fill the stadium during the week though might be for it to be full on the weekends. That way weekend ticket prices would go up and people would consider the mid-week games more.
                          Last edited by lonewolf371; 08-05-2012, 02:26 PM.
                          NFL: Indianapolis Colts (12-6)
                          NBA: Indiana Pacers (42-13)
                          MLB: Cincinnati Reds (0-0)
                          NHL: Detroit Red Wings (26-20-12)
                          NCAA: Purdue Boilermakers (FB: 1-11, BB: 15-12), Michigan Wolverines (FB: 7-6, BB: 19-7, H: 15-10-3)

                          Comment

                          • SlimKibbles
                            Supporter
                            • Apr 2004
                            • 7276

                            #523
                            Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

                            Originally posted by lonewolf371
                            I'll put it this way: if I lived in the Cincinnati area, there's no way I wouldn't be going to multiple games most weeks.

                            The best way to fill the stadium during the week though might be for it to be full on the weekends. That way weekend ticket prices would go up and people would consider the mid-week games more.
                            The thing is though, the Reds already raised ticket prices this season for all weekend series games. I exchanged my two tickets for that rainout against the Cubs back in May for the Friday night game against the Tigers and had to pay another $10 or something like that. So, they actually are using your idea but I don't think fans are taking to it, depending upon the opponent. To this day I still think that baseball in this town hasn't completely recovered from the strike in '94. That and the economy, other entertainment options, etc., have all played a part.

                            Anyway the Reds are actually doing a ticket deal for the series against the Mets next week. You can get field level seats regularly-priced at $34 for only $14. So they are at least trying to get folks to come out during the week. I'm likely going to take advantage of that.
                            MLB: Cincinnati Reds
                            NFL: Cincinnati Bengals
                            NCAA Hoops: Xavier Musketeers
                            NCAA Football: Miami Hurricanes
                            NHL: Calgary Flames

                            "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." - Edmund Burke

                            "The wisest men follow their own direction." - Euripides

                            Comment

                            • jasontoddwhitt
                              MVP
                              • May 2003
                              • 8095

                              #524
                              Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

                              I wish I lived closer to Cincy...I would make it to more than the 2-3 games a year I do make.
                              Time Warp Baseball (OOTP 25)

                              Comment

                              • lonewolf371
                                MVP
                                • Aug 2009
                                • 3420

                                #525
                                Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

                                Originally posted by SlimKibbles
                                The thing is though, the Reds already raised ticket prices this season for all weekend series games. I exchanged my two tickets for that rainout against the Cubs back in May for the Friday night game against the Tigers and had to pay another $10 or something like that. So, they actually are using your idea but I don't think fans are taking to it, depending upon the opponent. To this day I still think that baseball in this town hasn't completely recovered from the strike in '94. That and the economy, other entertainment options, etc., have all played a part.

                                Anyway the Reds are actually doing a ticket deal for the series against the Mets next week. You can get field level seats regularly-priced at $34 for only $14. So they are at least trying to get folks to come out during the week. I'm likely going to take advantage of that.
                                Well I was just thinking weekend games would sell out and then the secondary market like Stubhub and such would be way too pricey. I wasn't necessarily thinking that the team would raise prices.

                                And yes years and years of losing seasons will hurt attendance. Years of winning will fix that.
                                NFL: Indianapolis Colts (12-6)
                                NBA: Indiana Pacers (42-13)
                                MLB: Cincinnati Reds (0-0)
                                NHL: Detroit Red Wings (26-20-12)
                                NCAA: Purdue Boilermakers (FB: 1-11, BB: 15-12), Michigan Wolverines (FB: 7-6, BB: 19-7, H: 15-10-3)

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