"This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

[TheShizNo1]

I know yesterday's game was ugly, but I read a report that fans were booing the Reds.

Really? They were on a 10 game win streak including an undefeated road trip.

I can't help but think it's more of the bandwagon fans. I wouldn't Boo, but they were getting slaughtered though.

[slickdtc]

I wouldn't read much into that. Probably a half joking boo after winning 10 straight and like what? We lost and got beat up? Had to end sometime. Now to re-track and pull off some more wins.

I can't believe we hardly put distance between us and PIT though. That worries me. You win 10 straight, you wanna see a decent climb/cushion in the standings. Damn it.

Go Reds.

[Motown]

Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

These guys are really, really good!

Poor Marty!

"Poor MARTY???"...Him shavin' his head HAS to be an improvement over what he's sportin' now...seriously, that poofy do...is Lonnnng overdue bro

[Buckeyes_Doc]

Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

Jonathan Broxton is a Red.

Thoughts?

I really like the trade. We made a very solid bullpen a whole lot better.

In the end, general manager Walt Jocketty made just one move, and it was a deal that no one predicted. Cincinnati acquired Royals closer Jonathan Broxton for Minor League pitchers Donnie Joseph and J.C. Sulbaran.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/...s_cin&c_id=cin

[SlimKibbles]

Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

Joseph might have been a little tough to give up. He was pitching well in the minors. But Broxton was pitching well for KC. Just hope his shoulder doesn't fall apart. I really, really hope somebody can step up from the lead-off spot. That OBP has to go up. Joey needs guys on in order to drive them in.

[PhantomPain]

Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

I like the trade...a lot. Yes, we gave up a good pitching prospect but A) you have to give up something to get something, B) you never know what a pitcher will do once they get to the BIGS. A lot of them do not pan out the way you hope. C) As far as I'm concerned, Jocketty absolutely stuck it to KC. Again, good prospects but you are getting a known commodity for players you cannot predict how good they will be.

What I don't like is not getting a leadoff man. My hope is that when Votto comes back, that Dusty sticks Phillips in the leadoff spot. He did well there last year. He hasn't done so well this year but that was not many games and it was well before Phillips started hitting like Phillips. I think he would be fine there now. At the least, he would be an upgrade.

I halfway think we should do something completely unconventional and have this lineup:

1. Votto - Gets on base the best of anyone. Walks a ton, hits a ton. Very slow speed though.
2. Bruce - Why? because Bruce either strikes out or pops/flys out or hits a home run. This would lessen the chance of Votto getting doubled up on the bases. Lefty/Lefty with Votto and Bruce. Against right handers they could jump on them early. Against left handers Votto still kicks butt and Bruce can strikeout/pop/flyout. No harm.
3. Phillips - Drive Votto home if Bruce didn't already do so.
4. Ludwick - Power. The man has power.
5. Frazier/Rolen - Both have enough power for the 5 spot in my opinion. Frazier seems like he is going to be a fine hitter in the pros.
6. Stubbs/Heisey - Not sure why him here other than we wouldn't have 3 bad to average hitters filling out the remainder if he wasn't here. Heisey - Similar to Frazier in that now that he has a chance he is doing well. Plus it gives us another bat in the bottom portion of the lineup.
7. Cozart - Thinking he would be better in the back half of the lineup.
8. Hannigan/Mesoraco - Hannigan gives a decent bat and Mez will eventually/hopefully have a decent bat as well. Good to have in the 8 spot.
9. Pitcher.

Unconventional, huh? I'm sure you guys think I am nuts even suggesting something like this, and I am definitely kidding for the most part. But the more I think about it the more it doesn't sound so outlandish compared to the lineups we use now. Yeah, I'm kidding...sort of.

[TheShizNo1]

Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

I don't mind it, you present good points, but it will never happen.

[PhantomPain]

Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

I don't mind it, you present good points, but it will never happen.

And I wouldn't expect it to. Just something silly I was thinking of that almost made sense to me.

[jake44np]

Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

I like the trade...a lot. Yes, we gave up a good pitching prospect but A) you have to give up something to get something, B) you never know what a pitcher will do once they get to the BIGS. A lot of them do not pan out the way you hope. C) As far as I'm concerned, Jocketty absolutely stuck it to KC. Again, good prospects but you are getting a known commodity for players you cannot predict how good they will be.

What I don't like is not getting a leadoff man. My hope is that when Votto comes back, that Dusty sticks Phillips in the leadoff spot. He did well there last year. He hasn't done so well this year but that was not many games and it was well before Phillips started hitting like Phillips. I think he would be fine there now. At the least, he would be an upgrade.

I halfway think we should do something completely unconventional and have this lineup:

1. Votto - Gets on base the best of anyone. Walks a ton, hits a ton. Very slow speed though.
2. Bruce - Why? because Bruce either strikes out or pops/flys out or hits a home run. This would lessen the chance of Votto getting doubled up on the bases. Lefty/Lefty with Votto and Bruce. Against right handers they could jump on them early. Against left handers Votto still kicks butt and Bruce can strikeout/pop/flyout. No harm.
3. Phillips - Drive Votto home if Bruce didn't already do so.
4. Ludwick - Power. The man has power.
5. Frazier/Rolen - Both have enough power for the 5 spot in my opinion. Frazier seems like he is going to be a fine hitter in the pros.
6. Stubbs/Heisey - Not sure why him here other than we wouldn't have 3 bad to average hitters filling out the remainder if he wasn't here. Heisey - Similar to Frazier in that now that he has a chance he is doing well. Plus it gives us another bat in the bottom portion of the lineup.
7. Cozart - Thinking he would be better in the back half of the lineup.
8. Hannigan/Mesoraco - Hannigan gives a decent bat and Mez will eventually/hopefully have a decent bat as well. Good to have in the 8 spot.
9. Pitcher.

Unconventional, huh? I'm sure you guys think I am nuts even suggesting something like this, and I am definitely kidding for the most part. But the more I think about it the more it doesn't sound so outlandish compared to the lineups we use now. Yeah, I'm kidding...sort of.

Yes you are nuts! lol
This line up would have Votto batting with the bases empty about 75% of the time. You dont want you best run producer batting 1st. I would be fine with switching Phillips and Votto in your line up tho. Also i just read the other day that lead off hitters in the NL bat with 2 outs and noboby on a ton because of following the pitcher, this would lead to him being pitched around alot.

[PhantomPain]

Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

Yes you are nuts! lol
This line up would have Votto batting with the bases empty about 75% of the time. You dont want you best run producer batting 1st. I would be fine with switching Phillips and Votto in your line up tho. Also i just read the other day that lead off hitters in the NL bat with 2 outs and noboby on a ton because of following the pitcher, this would lead to him being pitched around alot.

Don't bring logic into this, Jake!

[TheShizNo1]

Yes you are nuts! lol
This line up would have Votto batting with the bases empty about 75% of the time. You dont want you best run producer batting 1st. I would be fine with switching Phillips and Votto in your line up tho. Also i just read the other day that lead off hitters in the NL bat with 2 outs and noboby on a ton because of following the pitcher, this would lead to him being pitched around alot.

Before the this run, we weren't doing anything w/ guys on base anyway. Obviously that hasn't been the case as much now.

[redsrule]

Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

Can Ludwick play right field? Both him and Frazier need to be in the lineup. When Votto gets back, that won't happen most likely. Rolen has been hitting really good lately as well.

[slickdtc]

Good to see us rebound from the streak-ending loss with a pair of W's.

The moment I read this I got really nervous. If there is a moment in the schedule for the season to be derailed, it's this portion and playing down to competition. It hasn't started off well with a pair of losses to the D'Backs.

Well, they lived up to the expectations so far.

[jasontoddwhitt]

Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

Two months ago, I evaluated the regular batting order. Now that we are four months into the season, let’s take another look.

Through 104 games, Dusty Baker has used 76 different batting orders. There has been no change in the “regular” lineup since the first of June.

Cozart
Stubbs
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
Ludwick
Frazier
Hanigan

Back in June, this lineup would theoretically score 690 runs over a 162 game season. The latest analysis puts this lineup at generating 718 runs over a 162 game season. That would be an increase of 28 runs (2.8 wins).

So how do we squeeze out every run out of these players? Using Sabermetrics (I know, a dirty word to some) to analyze the order (info comes from Beyond the Box Score). The spots in order of importance are...#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

The Book says OBP is king. The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they're not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him. Joey Votto has the highest OBP at .465, but his .604 SLG would be wasted. The next highest OBP is .354 belonging to....Ryan Hanigan.

The Book says the #4 hitter comes to bat in the most important situations out of all nine spots, but is equal in importance to the #2 hole once you consider the #2 guy receives more plate appearances. The cleanup hitter is the best hitter on the team with power. Votto and his .604 SLG would fill in nicely here.

The Books says the #2 hitter comes to bat in situations about as important as the #3 hitter, but more often. That means the #2 hitter should be better than the #3 guy, and one of the best three hitters overall. And since he bats with the bases empty more often than the hitters behind him, he should be a high-OBP player. Doesn't sound like someone who should be sacrificing, does it? Things have improved a bit here. Whereas last time, we put Jay Bruce and a .318 OPB here, this time, we are putting Brandon Phillips and his .336 OBP in the two hole. He has really improved since the last time I did this.

The Book says the #5 guy can provide more value than the #3 guy with singles, doubles, triples, and walks, and avoiding outs, although the #3 guy holds an advantage with homeruns. After positions #1, #2, and #4 are filled, put your next best hitter here, unless he lives and dies with the long ball. The next best OBP guy is Ryan Ludwick at .333. Plus, he’s really hit his stroke since the All-Star break and has been flashing the power that he once showed in St. Louis.

The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of. Enter Todd Frazier and his .531 SLG.

The old-school book says the rest of the lineup should be written in based on decreasing talent. Hitting ninth is an insult. The Book basically agrees, with a caveat. Stolen bases are most valuable ahead of high-contact singles hitters, who are more likely to hit at the bottom of the lineup. So a base-stealing threat who doesn't deserve a spot higher in the lineup is optimized in the #6 hole, followed by the singles hitters. Drew Stubbs is still our only consistent stolen base threat in the lineup with 22 steals, so he will hit sixth. Batting seventh would be Jay Bruce (.828 OPS). Batting eighth would be Zach Cozart (.681 OPS). The pitcher's spot is 9th. As for that whole batting the pitcher 8th, because the concept only saves you two runs in a season (0.2 wins), it's not significant enough to get away from the traditional lineup.

So how did the lineup change and how would it do?

Hanigan --> Hanigan
Bruce --> Phillips
Cozart --> Frazier
Votto --> Votto
Frazier --> Ludwick
Stubbs --> Stubbs
Phillips --> Bruce
Ludwick --> Cozart

According to analysis, the “prime” lineup would score 729 (up from 702) runs over a 162 game season. That is an increase of 9 runs (0.9 wins) over what Dusty has been rolling out.

What about Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool (which I have problems with, but whatever)? According to them, the optimal Reds lineup has changed as such…

Hanigan --> Votto
Votto --> Ludwick
Phillips --> Phillips
Bruce --> Frazier
Frazier --> Bruce
Ludwick --> Stubbs
Stubbs --> Hanigan
Cozart --> Cozart

That lineup would generate....one less run.

Wait, does that mean I’m better than a line of code from a computer???

[PhantomPain]

Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

Two months ago, I evaluated the regular batting order. Now that we are four months into the season, let’s take another look.

Through 104 games, Dusty Baker has used 76 different batting orders. There has been no change in the “regular” lineup since the first of June.

Cozart
Stubbs
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
Ludwick
Frazier
Hanigan

Back in June, this lineup would theoretically score 690 runs over a 162 game season. The latest analysis puts this lineup at generating 718 runs over a 162 game season. That would be an increase of 28 runs (2.8 wins).

So how do we squeeze out every run out of these players? Using Sabermetrics (I know, a dirty word to some) to analyze the order (info comes from Beyond the Box Score). The spots in order of importance are...#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

The Book says OBP is king. The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they're not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him. Joey Votto has the highest OBP at .465, but his .604 SLG would be wasted. The next highest OBP is .354 belonging to....Ryan Hanigan.

The Book says the #4 hitter comes to bat in the most important situations out of all nine spots, but is equal in importance to the #2 hole once you consider the #2 guy receives more plate appearances. The cleanup hitter is the best hitter on the team with power. Votto and his .604 SLG would fill in nicely here.

The Books says the #2 hitter comes to bat in situations about as important as the #3 hitter, but more often. That means the #2 hitter should be better than the #3 guy, and one of the best three hitters overall. And since he bats with the bases empty more often than the hitters behind him, he should be a high-OBP player. Doesn't sound like someone who should be sacrificing, does it? Things have improved a bit here. Whereas last time, we put Jay Bruce and a .318 OPB here, this time, we are putting Brandon Phillips and his .336 OBP in the two hole. He has really improved since the last time I did this.

The Book says the #5 guy can provide more value than the #3 guy with singles, doubles, triples, and walks, and avoiding outs, although the #3 guy holds an advantage with homeruns. After positions #1, #2, and #4 are filled, put your next best hitter here, unless he lives and dies with the long ball. The next best OBP guy is Ryan Ludwick at .333. Plus, he’s really hit his stroke since the All-Star break and has been flashing the power that he once showed in St. Louis.

The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of. Enter Todd Frazier and his .531 SLG.

The old-school book says the rest of the lineup should be written in based on decreasing talent. Hitting ninth is an insult. The Book basically agrees, with a caveat. Stolen bases are most valuable ahead of high-contact singles hitters, who are more likely to hit at the bottom of the lineup. So a base-stealing threat who doesn't deserve a spot higher in the lineup is optimized in the #6 hole, followed by the singles hitters. Drew Stubbs is still our only consistent stolen base threat in the lineup with 22 steals, so he will hit sixth. Batting seventh would be Jay Bruce (.828 OPS). Batting eighth would be Zach Cozart (.681 OPS). The pitcher's spot is 9th. As for that whole batting the pitcher 8th, because the concept only saves you two runs in a season (0.2 wins), it's not significant enough to get away from the traditional lineup.

So how did the lineup change and how would it do?

Hanigan --> Hanigan
Bruce --> Phillips
Cozart --> Frazier
Votto --> Votto
Frazier --> Ludwick
Stubbs --> Stubbs
Phillips --> Bruce
Ludwick --> Cozart

According to analysis, the “prime” lineup would score 729 (up from 702) runs over a 162 game season. That is an increase of 9 runs (0.9 wins) over what Dusty has been rolling out.

What about Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool (which I have problems with, but whatever)? According to them, the optimal Reds lineup has changed as such…

Hanigan --> Votto
Votto --> Ludwick
Phillips --> Phillips
Bruce --> Frazier
Frazier --> Bruce
Ludwick --> Stubbs
Stubbs --> Hanigan
Cozart --> Cozart

That lineup would generate....one less run.

Wait, does that mean I’m better than a line of code from a computer???

Nice breakdown

Now I have a serious question for you. I played baseball for 18 years (from little league through semi-pro) and am now 39 years old. My point is, I am an old school guy. The sabermetrics are new to me and so far I have just shrugged them off. With that said, I am starting to see why people like them.

So my question is, does any team in MLB or otherwise, user sabermetrics like the above and had success? While it makes sense what you propose, I have not personally seen a team go to that extreme in their lineup. Of course, I can barely catch a game in the past 6 years due to having 3 kids so maybe teams do it and I just haven't seen it yet. But I am curious if there is a success story or if this is all "looks good on paper" stuff?