NBA 2k15 Player Regression in MYLeague Testing

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  • GravesFan9
    Rookie
    • Feb 2006
    • 497

    #226
    Re: NBA 2k15 Player Regression in MYLeague Testing

    We deserve to at least be told by 2K if they are going to fix this or not instead of twisting in the wind. Maybe spend a little less money on Kevin Durant commercials and a little more money on a game that isn't full of bugs.

    After the patch, the game play is truly phenomenal but I can't even enjoy it. Such a shame.
    Check out my WWE2K19 Universe Dynasty - "The Monday Night Wars...REIGNITED" WCW vs. WWE vs. ECW

    Comment

    • BigT34
      Rookie
      • Jun 2003
      • 330

      #227
      Re: NBA 2k15 Player Regression in MYLeague Testing

      I actually don't think it's nearly as unrealistic as people say.

      Average NBA career is 4.8 years. Here's some data from 2013: http://www.besttickets.com/blog/unof...13-nba-census/

      49% of players are 25 or less. 18% are 31 or older. Only 6% are 34 or older.

      Most guys are done by 30. 7-time all-star and 2-time scoring champ Tracy McGrady never averaged double figures scoring past age 29 and retired at age 33. That's more common than not.

      Last year, of the top-20 players in PER, only 3 were over 29: Duncan, Nowitzki, and Wade.

      In my current MyLeague, Durant is 32 and 92 overall, Lebron is 35 and 84 overall, and Melo is 37 and 76 overall. I signed Melo to a 1-year deal to be a back-up 3/stretch-4 off the bench for 15 min/game, and he's perfect for it. Reminds me a lot of Paul Pierce--a borderline starter for the right fit at age 37.

      Just how unrealistic is it, actually? I wonder if some of this is that we don't like seeing our stars tumble so quickly, and that we don't actually appreciate just how short the window to NBA greatness truly is.

      Guys like Korver, Duncan, Ginobli, Nash, Nowitzki are anomalies, not the rule. It'd be cool if 2k could model players like that, guys who have atypical aging curves and continue to improve into their 30s. But this is not a broken game, IMO.

      Comment

      • BigT34
        Rookie
        • Jun 2003
        • 330

        #228
        Re: NBA 2k15 Player Regression in MYLeague Testing

        Originally posted by JA Money14
        I do it subjectively. Someone like LeBron won't regress really until 33 or 34 unlike a role player that would typically start getting worse a little earlier. Just go down the list of 28-32 and make changes based on your personal knowledge.
        I'm not sure how you know that Lebron won't regress until 33 or 34? According to whom?

        Lebron is still a great player. But he's not dominating athletically the way he used to--his athleticism has ALREADY regressed. His PER this season is 25.3, third-lowest of his career and lowest since 2006. He's got the 2nd-lowest rebounding rate of his career, lowest TS% in 6 years, and lowest eFG% in four years.

        Smart money is actually that Lebron is already regressing. He's no longer the most dominant player in the NBA, but he's still a top-5 player. I expect he'll remain top-5/10 for the next few years, but there's no guarantee. If he suffers a couple of injuries, he may regress much more quickly.

        There's a lot of assumptions here that aren't based on any reality. Who would have predicted that 23 year old Tracy McGrady, who led the league in scoring at 32ppg, would be RETIRED by age 33 and wouldn't be a regular starter again past age 29? 27 year old Amare Stoudemire was a superstar. 32 year old Amare is dead weight on a terrible Knicks team.

        My quesiton is this: If we had been having htis exact same discussion in, say, 2006, how many guys would you have said would have been still good at 32-33? How many of them, now, are actually as good as you would have thought?

        I don't think we have the best data on this. I remember listening to Leftos' podcast and he talked about injuries--if this game were TRULY realistic when it came to injuries, nobody would even want to play it. The true rate of injuries in real life is way higher than the game. I think player regression is similar--players regress a hell of a lot faster than we realize. Our perceptions of reality are inherently flawed, and we tend to remember how great a peak player was and overvalue them later in their career.

        Comment

        • darkknightrises
          Banned
          • Sep 2012
          • 1468

          #229
          Re: NBA 2k15 Player Regression in MYLeague Testing

          Originally posted by JRxPHANTOM
          Actually, i'm using player progression at 50 and it's still terrible. That's actually where all my tests come from.


          I have done test with player progression at 0,25,50,75,100 and I noticed no difference with the way guys decline only with the way guys get better. Its terrible no matter what you have the number set to.

          Comment

          • darkknightrises
            Banned
            • Sep 2012
            • 1468

            #230
            Re: NBA 2k15 Player Regression in MYLeague Testing

            Originally posted by BigT34
            I actually don't think it's nearly as unrealistic as people say.

            Average NBA career is 4.8 years. Here's some data from 2013: http://www.besttickets.com/blog/unof...13-nba-census/

            49% of players are 25 or less. 18% are 31 or older. Only 6% are 34 or older.

            Most guys are done by 30. 7-time all-star and 2-time scoring champ Tracy McGrady never averaged double figures scoring past age 29 and retired at age 33. That's more common than not.

            Last year, of the top-20 players in PER, only 3 were over 29: Duncan, Nowitzki, and Wade.

            In my current MyLeague, Durant is 32 and 92 overall, Lebron is 35 and 84 overall, and Melo is 37 and 76 overall. I signed Melo to a 1-year deal to be a back-up 3/stretch-4 off the bench for 15 min/game, and he's perfect for it. Reminds me a lot of Paul Pierce--a borderline starter for the right fit at age 37.

            Just how unrealistic is it, actually? I wonder if some of this is that we don't like seeing our stars tumble so quickly, and that we don't actually appreciate just how short the window to NBA greatness truly is.

            Guys like Korver, Duncan, Ginobli, Nash, Nowitzki are anomalies, not the rule. It'd be cool if 2k could model players like that, guys who have atypical aging curves and continue to improve into their 30s. But this is not a broken game, IMO.


            most guys are done at 30 lol yeah right. I swear some of you guys are acting like 30 is 40 or like 30 in the nba is like 30 in the NFL. 30 is still prim or end of prim age for most players inless they either get in trouble with the law, have a lot of injures or they are a type of player that has trouble staying, getting into the nba in the first place. You talk about tmac and again he had a lot and I mean a lot of injures. Very very few players in the nba are going to decline before 29-30 with out a lot of injues. You have 18% are 31 or older in the nba while in this game by like the 3erd season in franchise mode that dropes to like 9%.

            Comment

            • CWSapp757
              SimWorld Draft Class Guru
              • Aug 2008
              • 4651

              #231
              Re: NBA 2k15 Player Regression in MYLeague Testing

              Originally posted by BigT34
              I'm not sure how you know that Lebron won't regress until 33 or 34? According to whom?

              Lebron is still a great player. But he's not dominating athletically the way he used to--his athleticism has ALREADY regressed. His PER this season is 25.3, third-lowest of his career and lowest since 2006. He's got the 2nd-lowest rebounding rate of his career, lowest TS% in 6 years, and lowest eFG% in four years.

              Smart money is actually that Lebron is already regressing. He's no longer the most dominant player in the NBA, but he's still a top-5 player. I expect he'll remain top-5/10 for the next few years, but there's no guarantee. If he suffers a couple of injuries, he may regress much more quickly.

              There's a lot of assumptions here that aren't based on any reality. Who would have predicted that 23 year old Tracy McGrady, who led the league in scoring at 32ppg, would be RETIRED by age 33 and wouldn't be a regular starter again past age 29? 27 year old Amare Stoudemire was a superstar. 32 year old Amare is dead weight on a terrible Knicks team.

              My quesiton is this: If we had been having htis exact same discussion in, say, 2006, how many guys would you have said would have been still good at 32-33? How many of them, now, are actually as good as you would have thought?

              I don't think we have the best data on this. I remember listening to Leftos' podcast and he talked about injuries--if this game were TRULY realistic when it came to injuries, nobody would even want to play it. The true rate of injuries in real life is way higher than the game. I think player regression is similar--players regress a hell of a lot faster than we realize. Our perceptions of reality are inherently flawed, and we tend to remember how great a peak player was and overvalue them later in their career.
              I think that most of us would agree with you on that. The fact of the matter if that it is not the stars that people have much of a problem with man. To be honest, some of the big time stars actually don't regress ENOUGH in the future. In two of my tests, a 42 year old Tim Duncan was sitting in free agency with a 73 overall.

              Once again for everyone that thinks we are complaining about stars, that is not where our ajor beef lies. The issue is that such mass regression takes place based off of age that later in your league, the entire NBA is dominated by players under the age of 28. And when I say dominated, I mean that many teams have NO players under the age of 30 on their team. If you take a long look at the NBA, we can all agree that is far from accurate. As a matter of fact, this weekend, I will dive deeper in to My League as the tests that I have done have gone 6 or 7 years in at the most.

              Once again, I am not trying to put down your post as I feel that your statements are true. However, I think you are missing the bigger picture here man.
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              Comment

              • BigT34
                Rookie
                • Jun 2003
                • 330

                #232
                Re: NBA 2k15 Player Regression in MYLeague Testing

                MOST players decline by 28-29. The data that support that is absolutely not debatable. The fact that 17/20 guys in the top-20 for PER last year were 29 or younger kind of proves the point that it's exceedingly rare for a player to continue to dominate past age 28.

                I'll check out the age breakdown for my active MyLeague when I get home today. I'm curious to tally the numbers and actually see--I know there are a few guys still sticking around and playing well in their 30s, but they are declining.

                Re: TMac, lots of guys have lots of injuries. Lots of guys who are regressing in this game have lots of injuries, too. I saw a guy who was generated in my first draft class suffer multiple ankle and knee injuries. He's 26, still a great scorer, but his athleticism is not what it was, and I suspect he'll regress faster than he would had he not been injured. When we sim ahead, are people keeping track of each player, injury by injury, and seeing if that has a bearing on things? I would hope it would, but it'd be nice to know.

                I'm not saying regression couldn't be improved in this game (as well as progression). I think there's a ton of room to improve things and generate a richer experience. I just want us to compile better data to compare--if 10 years into MyLeague, only 9% of active NBA players are 31 or older, I agree, that's a huge problem. But let's actually gather that data, first.

                Comment

                • darkknightrises
                  Banned
                  • Sep 2012
                  • 1468

                  #233
                  Re: NBA 2k15 Player Regression in MYLeague Testing

                  Originally posted by BigT34
                  I'm not sure how you know that Lebron won't regress until 33 or 34? According to whom?

                  Lebron is still a great player. But he's not dominating athletically the way he used to--his athleticism has ALREADY regressed. His PER this season is 25.3, third-lowest of his career and lowest since 2006. He's got the 2nd-lowest rebounding rate of his career, lowest TS% in 6 years, and lowest eFG% in four years.

                  Smart money is actually that Lebron is already regressing. He's no longer the most dominant player in the NBA, but he's still a top-5 player. I expect he'll remain top-5/10 for the next few years, but there's no guarantee. If he suffers a couple of injuries, he may regress much more quickly.

                  There's a lot of assumptions here that aren't based on any reality. Who would have predicted that 23 year old Tracy McGrady, who led the league in scoring at 32ppg, would be RETIRED by age 33 and wouldn't be a regular starter again past age 29? 27 year old Amare Stoudemire was a superstar. 32 year old Amare is dead weight on a terrible Knicks team.

                  My quesiton is this: If we had been having htis exact same discussion in, say, 2006, how many guys would you have said would have been still good at 32-33? How many of them, now, are actually as good as you would have thought?

                  I don't think we have the best data on this. I remember listening to Leftos' podcast and he talked about injuries--if this game were TRULY realistic when it came to injuries, nobody would even want to play it. The true rate of injuries in real life is way higher than the game. I think player regression is similar--players regress a hell of a lot faster than we realize. Our perceptions of reality are inherently flawed, and we tend to remember how great a peak player was and overvalue them later in their career.


                  I don't know what the per stat thing is has you don't really hear people talk about it so I don't think that really means any thing. You say he has started to get less athletic but I don't see any less athectism then he used to have at all. He is still the best player in the game and he is just a few days away form 30 and with going form high school to the nba and with all the finals he has been to you can say he is a old 30 with all the games he has already played. I do think he has maybe started to decline some but very little and the only reason I would say he has declined at all is because his rebounding is down.


                  With a guy like James I wonder with how good of a passer he is if he will try to get guys even more involed has he gets older. You talk about tmac and about stoudierm both of them had a lot of injures. The thing is in this game everyone declines like they had a lot of injures. No one declines in this game like they wore heathly. Stoudierm was is a guy that relied to much on his athectism. Guys that realy to much on athectism like a Dwight howard should decline at a earlier age. In this game everyone decines at the same age no matter how much the realie on there athectism or not.

                  Comment

                  • 2_headedmonster
                    MVP
                    • Oct 2011
                    • 2251

                    #234
                    Re: NBA 2k15 Player Regression in MYLeague Testing

                    I think more data is needed on the subject to determine if its really an issue.

                    Reported or not, all players have injuries, and even little nagging one add up over time. It would be interesting to see if thats the underlying issue or is it a matter of skills not compensating for diminished athleticism.


                    Also is what ratings specifically are declining, is it at random or skills tied to athleticism ? (sorry if this was mentioned already )

                    Comment

                    • darkknightrises
                      Banned
                      • Sep 2012
                      • 1468

                      #235
                      Re: NBA 2k15 Player Regression in MYLeague Testing

                      Originally posted by BigT34
                      MOST players decline by 28-29. The data that support that is absolutely not debatable. The fact that 17/20 guys in the top-20 for PER last year were 29 or younger kind of proves the point that it's exceedingly rare for a player to continue to dominate past age 28.

                      I'll check out the age breakdown for my active MyLeague when I get home today. I'm curious to tally the numbers and actually see--I know there are a few guys still sticking around and playing well in their 30s, but they are declining.

                      Re: TMac, lots of guys have lots of injuries. Lots of guys who are regressing in this game have lots of injuries, too. I saw a guy who was generated in my first draft class suffer multiple ankle and knee injuries. He's 26, still a great scorer, but his athleticism is not what it was, and I suspect he'll regress faster than he would had he not been injured. When we sim ahead, are people keeping track of each player, injury by injury, and seeing if that has a bearing on things? I would hope it would, but it'd be nice to know.

                      I'm not saying regression couldn't be improved in this game (as well as progression). I think there's a ton of room to improve things and generate a richer experience. I just want us to compile better data to compare--if 10 years into MyLeague, only 9% of active NBA players are 31 or older, I agree, that's a huge problem. But let's actually gather that data, first.


                      While when I did a sim by just year 3 only 9% of the nba was 31 or older. Now its not just that guys decline at 28-29 but to often guys drop by 4-6 points at age 29-30 ever year where if guys declined by 1-2 points things would look better. Example lets say you have a 80 center who is 28 years old. At 29 he will probly decine by 2-3 points and then at 30 and 31 he will drop another 4-6 points each of those 2 years. Now that means by age 31 he could be all the way down to 65. If instead the player was to decline 2-3 points at age 29 and then again at 30 and 31 he could be a 71 instead of a 65 witch would look a lot better. The other thing is I have seen some simulations where a guy at like 27-28 has a great year doesn't get injured and yet he goes down. I had a simulations where curry only missed a few games and averaged more points then he has before and his assest where right around his carrier high and his FG % was a carrier high yet he droped by 2 points. That shouldn't happened either.

                      Comment

                      • darkknightrises
                        Banned
                        • Sep 2012
                        • 1468

                        #236
                        Re: NBA 2k15 Player Regression in MYLeague Testing

                        Originally posted by 2_headedmonster
                        I think more data is needed on the subject to determine if its really an issue.

                        Reported or not, all players have injuries, and even little nagging one add up over time. It would be interesting to see if thats the underlying issue or is it a matter of skills not compensating for diminished athleticism.


                        Also is what ratings specifically are declining, is it at random or skills tied to athleticism ? (sorry if this was mentioned already )


                        While the thing is I have seen IQ drop for some players in the simulations and that shouldn't happened. Guys are not going to get more stupid has they play more lol. The other thing is something like shooting is something that should decline last and yet there are some simulations where guys or are really good shooters are declining at shooting at like 28-30.

                        Comment

                        • joosegoose
                          Pro
                          • Oct 2014
                          • 889

                          #237
                          Re: NBA 2k15 Player Regression in MYLeague Testing

                          Originally posted by BigT34
                          I actually don't think it's nearly as unrealistic as people say.

                          Average NBA career is 4.8 years. Here's some data from 2013: http://www.besttickets.com/blog/unof...13-nba-census/

                          49% of players are 25 or less. 18% are 31 or older. Only 6% are 34 or older.

                          Most guys are done by 30. 7-time all-star and 2-time scoring champ Tracy McGrady never averaged double figures scoring past age 29 and retired at age 33. That's more common than not.

                          Last year, of the top-20 players in PER, only 3 were over 29: Duncan, Nowitzki, and Wade.

                          In my current MyLeague, Durant is 32 and 92 overall, Lebron is 35 and 84 overall, and Melo is 37 and 76 overall. I signed Melo to a 1-year deal to be a back-up 3/stretch-4 off the bench for 15 min/game, and he's perfect for it. Reminds me a lot of Paul Pierce--a borderline starter for the right fit at age 37.

                          Just how unrealistic is it, actually? I wonder if some of this is that we don't like seeing our stars tumble so quickly, and that we don't actually appreciate just how short the window to NBA greatness truly is.

                          Guys like Korver, Duncan, Ginobli, Nash, Nowitzki are anomalies, not the rule. It'd be cool if 2k could model players like that, guys who have atypical aging curves and continue to improve into their 30s. But this is not a broken game, IMO.
                          The average career is so short because of players who flame out earlier than you would expect, and players who hardly belonged in the first place. Neither example is simulated well currently.

                          The latter example comes in the form of draft busts, which really don't exist in the game the way they do in real life. The former comes from guys who get derailed by injuries and are never the same, and guys who get worse or lose their shot in the league for other reasons. None of these are really represented in 2k15 except for the player who starts to tank out of the league (and fast!) starting around age ~28.

                          Players with much longer careers are certainly not the norm, and they aren't represented in the game either. The only way a guy can be a role player at age 30+ is if he was an all-star caliber player at some point, and the only way someone will be starting is if they were all-NBA. Heck, even LeBron at age 37 is a hair worse than Paul Pierce at age 37 from my experience.

                          As long as every player (current NBA veterans are excluded of course) has roughly the same development curve, there are going to be folks on here disappointed. Nobody is/was expecting an incredibly nuanced system this year, but I can see why there is frustration for the way it is.

                          With the current system, players with short careers are somewhat represented and players with long careers are an impossibility. Alternatively, the regression curve could be more gradual and the options are increased. Players with long careers are now possible. Busts are not really possible, but can be simulated by lowering draft quality and creating less players who enter the league with the ability to actually play. Players with injury-shortened careers also can't be simulated accurately, but you can at least do something if you want by raising the career-ending injury slider. With a more gradual regression curve, the only type of career that can't be somewhat approximated is the player who tanks out of the league in his late 20s.

                          The only way to currently create exceptions to the aging curve is by making edits every single season. This isn't nearly as enjoyable as it could/should be.

                          Originally posted by BigT34
                          I remember listening to Leftos' podcast and he talked about injuries--if this game were TRULY realistic when it came to injuries, nobody would even want to play it. The true rate of injuries in real life is way higher than the game. I think player regression is similar--players regress a hell of a lot faster than we realize. Our perceptions of reality are inherently flawed, and we tend to remember how great a peak player was and overvalue them later in their career.
                          I would love an injury system that were truly realistic. Heck, I want everything in the game as realistic as possible. I want nothing more than the volatility and roster turnover real-life NBA offers. The problem is we don't get players who fall from their peak suddenly and unexpectedly--we get players (again, current NBA vets are obviously excluded) who consistently fall off the map around age 28. That's not fun for anybody.

                          Comment

                          • 2_headedmonster
                            MVP
                            • Oct 2011
                            • 2251

                            #238
                            Re: NBA 2k15 Player Regression in MYLeague Testing

                            Originally posted by darkknightrises
                            I don't know what the per stat thing is has you don't really hear people talk about it so I don't think that really means any thing. You say he has started to get less athletic but I don't see any less athectism then he used to have at all. He is still the best player in the game and he is just a few days away form 30 and with going form high school to the nba and with all the finals he has been to you can say he is a old 30 with all the games he has already played. I do think he has maybe started to decline some but very little and the only reason I would say he has declined at all is because his rebounding is down.


                            With a guy like James I wonder with how good of a passer he is if he will try to get guys even more involed has he gets older. You talk about tmac and about stoudierm both of them had a lot of injures. The thing is in this game everyone declines like they had a lot of injures. No one declines in this game like they wore heathly. Stoudierm was is a guy that relied to much on his athectism. Guys that realy to much on athectism like a Dwight howard should decline at a earlier age. In this game everyone decines at the same age no matter how much the realie on there athectism or not.
                            A look at the stats show its clear James has declined, and imo driving dunks are a huge indicator of athleticism, and his have taken a nose dive. His concern with minutes and wise decision to go a more youthful team also speaks volumes.

                            Comment

                            • darkknightrises
                              Banned
                              • Sep 2012
                              • 1468

                              #239
                              Re: NBA 2k15 Player Regression in MYLeague Testing

                              Originally posted by joosegoose
                              The average career is so short because of players who flame out earlier than you would expect, and players who hardly belonged in the first place. Neither example is simulated well currently.

                              The latter example comes in the form of draft busts, which really don't exist in the game the way they do in real life. The former comes from guys who get derailed by injuries and are never the same, and guys who get worse or lose their shot in the league for other reasons. None of these are really represented in 2k15 except for the player who starts to tank out of the league (and fast!) starting around age ~28.

                              Players with much longer careers are certainly not the norm, and they aren't represented in the game either. The only way a guy can be a role player at age 30+ is if he was an all-star caliber player at some point, and the only way someone will be starting is if they were all-NBA. Heck, even LeBron at age 37 is a hair worse than Paul Pierce at age 37 from my experience.

                              As long as every player (current NBA veterans are excluded of course) has roughly the same development curve, there are going to be folks on here disappointed. Nobody is/was expecting an incredibly nuanced system this year, but I can see why there is frustration for the way it is.

                              With the current system, players with short careers are somewhat represented and players with long careers are an impossibility. Alternatively, the regression curve could be more gradual and the options are increased. Players with long careers are now possible. Busts are not really possible, but can be simulated by lowering draft quality and creating less players who enter the league with the ability to actually play. Players with injury-shortened careers also can't be simulated accurately, but you can at least do something if you want by raising the career-ending injury slider. With a more gradual regression curve, the only type of career that can't be somewhat approximated is the player who tanks out of the league in his late 20s.

                              The only way to currently create exceptions to the aging curve is by making edits every single season. This isn't nearly as enjoyable as it could/should be.



                              I would love an injury system that were truly realistic. Heck, I want everything in the game as realistic as possible. I want nothing more than the volatility and roster turnover real-life NBA offers. The problem is we don't get players who fall from their peak suddenly and unexpectedly--we get players (again, current NBA vets are obviously excluded) who consistently fall off the map around age 28. That's not fun for anybody.


                              Couldn't have said it better my self so for people to say that players decline at 27 most of the time lol because like you said the only reason players have such short cariers on average is because you have a lot of players who don't really belong in the league in the first place or injures or even a little of both.

                              Comment

                              • JA Money14
                                Banned
                                • Mar 2012
                                • 0

                                #240
                                Re: NBA 2k15 Player Regression in MYLeague Testing

                                Originally posted by BigT34
                                I'm not sure how you know that Lebron won't regress until 33 or 34? According to whom?

                                Lebron is still a great player. But he's not dominating athletically the way he used to--his athleticism has ALREADY regressed. His PER this season is 25.3, third-lowest of his career and lowest since 2006. He's got the 2nd-lowest rebounding rate of his career, lowest TS% in 6 years, and lowest eFG% in four years.

                                Smart money is actually that Lebron is already regressing. He's no longer the most dominant player in the NBA, but he's still a top-5 player. I expect he'll remain top-5/10 for the next few years, but there's no guarantee. If he suffers a couple of injuries, he may regress much more quickly.

                                There's a lot of assumptions here that aren't based on any reality. Who would have predicted that 23 year old Tracy McGrady, who led the league in scoring at 32ppg, would be RETIRED by age 33 and wouldn't be a regular starter again past age 29? 27 year old Amare Stoudemire was a superstar. 32 year old Amare is dead weight on a terrible Knicks team.

                                My quesiton is this: If we had been having htis exact same discussion in, say, 2006, how many guys would you have said would have been still good at 32-33? How many of them, now, are actually as good as you would have thought?

                                I don't think we have the best data on this. I remember listening to Leftos' podcast and he talked about injuries--if this game were TRULY realistic when it came to injuries, nobody would even want to play it. The true rate of injuries in real life is way higher than the game. I think player regression is similar--players regress a hell of a lot faster than we realize. Our perceptions of reality are inherently flawed, and we tend to remember how great a peak player was and overvalue them later in their career.
                                It was an example based on likely hood. He has the lower statistics because he's own a new team with great players. But even if those don't fly up, it's not like 2014 Heat LBJ and 2015 Cavs LBJ lost significant talent. He's still the best player in the league.

                                I think we all know how unpredictable the NBA is. If you're trying to rationalize the regression in 2K15, then that's not unpredictable either. Andrew Bogut, Horford, and Iguodala become useless 2 years in. Every time. Without fail. If it only happened sometimes, then other times they stayed the same, I would be ecstatic.

                                You're right, the things we think happen aren't necessarily fact, but you know what else isn't fact? Every NBA player regressing at 27 and 28.

                                But as for LeBron, CHANCES are he won't show serious decline until 33 or 34. I never know honestly because no one is psychic.
                                Last edited by JA Money14; 12-26-2014, 03:38 PM.

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