MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

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  • DocHolliday
    Farewell and 'ado
    • Oct 2002
    • 4698

    #76
    Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

    I think it is safe to say that this is not going to be fixed this year.

    I only hope this is not one of the bugs that, for some reason, lingers in the system for years to come.
    GT: Event Horizon 0

    Comment

    • zfgzdg
      Banned
      • Jan 2015
      • 3

      #77
      Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

      I agree as well and my decision on whether or not to purchase the game may hinge on whether this issue will be addressed.

      Comment

      • vardano
        Banned
        • Nov 2013
        • 22

        #78
        Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

        Well, at least if they would come here and say in any manner.. that they do know about the issue and it will be addressed, I'd be somewhat satisfied. We all know why none of 2k team leplying here, but we better than that. Let's do this game better together.

        Comment

        • Guccilafluer
          Rookie
          • Aug 2012
          • 315

          #79
          MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

          Originally posted by vardano
          Well, at least if they would come here and say in any manner.. that they do know about the issue and it will be addressed, I'd be somewhat satisfied. We all know why none of 2k team leplying here, but we better than that. Let's do this game better together.

          Not trying to be pessimistic here but what sports video game company has ever came out and admitted a mistake and then attempted a fix, in the same year? I feel like the answer is none, and will always be none.


          Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

          Comment

          • BigT34
            Rookie
            • Jun 2003
            • 330

            #80
            Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

            I think it might be helpful if we started by thinking about what happens in the real world. I've posted before the percentage breakdown of NBA players. Basketball-reference.com has an easily sortable table that includes players age and is downloadable in excel format, so I compared this year and the 2011 season.

            First, age breakdown for this year:
            483 players are listed--essentially anyone who actually played a game this year. Their ages are as follows:

            38: 4
            37: 5
            36: 4
            35: 6
            34: 17
            33: 13
            32: 19
            31: 16
            30: 23

            In total, 22% of the league is age 30 or older, 14% is OVER 30, and 3.9% is 35 or older.

            So, it seems like the issue is that people are complaining about players regressing too much, too soon. In general, the data suggest that NBA players peak around age 26, and indeed, this season, 26 year olds are the single largest group in the NBA. So I decided to compare 30 year olds to their former selves at age 26, and went back to the 2011 season to see who was in the league then and what became of them. I also looked at 28 year olds and 30 year olds. There was an unusually large cohort of 30 year olds in the NBA then, a total of 37 players.

            Comparing 2011 and 2015:
            -40 players aged 26
            -22 still in the league now (one addition is Chris Copeland, who joined the league in 2012)
            -If average PER is 15, NONE of the players out of the league now were even league average at age 26
            -Most notable players out of the league by 30: Brandon Roy, Sasha Vujacic, Travis Outlaw

            -31 players aged 28
            -15 still in the league
            -Notable players out of the league: Will Bynum (PER 15.1), Hakim Warrick (PER 16.5, Luther Head, Kwame Brown

            -37 players aged 30
            -18 still in the NBA at age 34
            -notably no longer still in the NBA: Yao Ming, Keith Bogans, Dahntay Jones, Al Harrington, Troy Murphy

            From 31 to 35, the drop is even more pronounce:
            -19 players 31 years old in, only 6 still in the NBA at age 35 (Jannero Pargo was out of the league for that one season, so it's 5/19 + Pargo
            -Notably out of NBA now: Lamar Odom, Tracy McGrady, Corey Maggette, Metta World Peace, Baron Davis, Rashard Lewis, Mehmet Okur. 5 of those guys were all-stars, Odom had a great career, and Artest was DPOY on top of that
            -Worth nothing that many of those guys had productive seasons, including Odom (PER of 19), Davis (PER of 17), and Maggette (PER of 15.8).
            -Rasual Butler is the only player left who has a PER of 15 or better
            -Elton Brand is still around, but he has fallen from a PER of 18.6 to a PER of 11.6

            Granted, I'm using PER as a catch-all metric, but you can use whatever measure you want.

            This isn't a large enough sample size to build a real model, but the data is pretty clearly there. Injuries obviously play a huge role--but that's true in the game, too--I've seen guys regress horribly after injuries in 2K15. But this is why it's risky to give big contracts to veterans--that max deal you give to a 28 year old all-star might buy you a couple of good seasons, and then you'll find yourself spending tons of cap space on a mediocre role player.

            I think the regression system in the game needs tweaking, especially because it'd be cool to see guys evolve better over time, a la Duncan/Dirk/Carter. But let's remember how truly rare those are.

            This should give people doing testing at least some useful info to work with, I hope.

            Comment

            • JumpOffMang
              Rookie
              • May 2014
              • 206

              #81
              Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

              Does this happen in myGm aswell or only myleague?

              Comment

              • dickey1331
                Everyday is Faceurary!
                • Sep 2009
                • 14285

                #82
                Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

                Originally posted by JumpOffMang
                Does this happen in myGm aswell or only myleague?

                Both......
                MLB: Texas Rangers
                Soccer: FC Dallas, Fleetwood Town
                NCAA: SMU, UTA
                NFL: Dallas Cowboys
                NHL: Dallas Stars
                NBA: Dallas Mavericks

                I own a band check it out

                Comment

                • vcvxhj
                  Just started!
                  • Jan 2015
                  • 4

                  #83
                  Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

                  I agree as well and my decision on whether or not to purchase the game may hinge on whether this issue will be addressed.

                  Comment

                  • BigT34
                    Rookie
                    • Jun 2003
                    • 330

                    #84
                    Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

                    Originally posted by vcvxhj
                    I agree as well and my decision on whether or not to purchase the game may hinge on whether this issue will be addressed.
                    IMO, this is not an issue so big as to prohibit buying this game.

                    It's one if countless things that aren't perfect, but it's not nearly as bad as some people are claiming.

                    Comment

                    • dickey1331
                      Everyday is Faceurary!
                      • Sep 2009
                      • 14285

                      #85
                      Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

                      Originally posted by BigT34
                      IMO, this is not an issue so big as to prohibit buying this game.



                      It's one if countless things that aren't perfect, but it's not nearly as bad as some people are claiming.

                      I'm pretty sure he's spam. He's like the 5th person to say the exact same thing.
                      MLB: Texas Rangers
                      Soccer: FC Dallas, Fleetwood Town
                      NCAA: SMU, UTA
                      NFL: Dallas Cowboys
                      NHL: Dallas Stars
                      NBA: Dallas Mavericks

                      I own a band check it out

                      Comment

                      • timmuh1515
                        Pro
                        • Aug 2009
                        • 546

                        #86
                        Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

                        I only play offline and have always liked the control of a myLeague type format. That makes this regression disappointing.

                        I finished up season one the other day and went through changing ages to end the FA cycle. I can deal with it...although I would rather be playing in the little free time I have...but more disappointing to me is the lack of variability. For all the amazing things they do with this game...to think that every player is going to end up basically the exact same every time is a let down.

                        Comment

                        • xggj
                          Just started!
                          • Jan 2015
                          • 4

                          #87
                          Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

                          I agree as well and my decision on whether or not to purchase the game may hinge on whether this issue will be addressed.

                          Comment

                          • Guccilafluer
                            Rookie
                            • Aug 2012
                            • 315

                            #88
                            Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

                            Originally posted by timmuh1515
                            I only play offline and have always liked the control of a myLeague type format. That makes this regression disappointing.



                            I finished up season one the other day and went through changing ages to end the FA cycle. I can deal with it...although I would rather be playing in the little free time I have...but more disappointing to me is the lack of variability. For all the amazing things they do with this game...to think that every player is going to end up basically the exact same every time is a let down.

                            Not every player "ends up the same" man.. It's actually pretty cool to see who resists the regression and who doesn't. My buddy and I have a franchise that's in 2025.. We have seen a lot of variability, and surprises.. In fact the regression has never been much of an issue.




                            Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

                            Comment

                            • annan
                              Banned
                              • Feb 2004
                              • 355

                              #89
                              Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

                              Originally posted by Guccilafluer
                              Not every player "ends up the same" man.. It's actually pretty cool to see who resists the regression and who doesn't. My buddy and I have a franchise that's in 2025.. We have seen a lot of variability, and surprises.. In fact the regression has never been much of an issue.




                              Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
                              Maybe you aren't noticing the regression? It seems strange that this issue would affect so many people but you and your friend Dont have the same problem. Care to share your MyLeague settings? Perhaps you've set yours up in a way that mitigates the regression problems that plague everyone else's game.

                              Comment

                              • BigT34
                                Rookie
                                • Jun 2003
                                • 330

                                #90
                                Re: MyLeague Regression - (Because the issue should not be forgotten)

                                Originally posted by Guccilafluer
                                Not every player "ends up the same" man.. It's actually pretty cool to see who resists the regression and who doesn't. My buddy and I have a franchise that's in 2025.. We have seen a lot of variability, and surprises.. In fact the regression has never been much of an issue.




                                Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
                                Completely agree.

                                For some reason, Brandon Knight, Jeremy Lin, and Corey Joseph all resisted regression in OVR significantly. Knight and Joseph were both over 80 OVR at age 33, and Lin was a very solid mid-70s. I'm really not sure why that is. It'd be worthwhile to sim multiple 10-year myleagues and see if guys always regress the same way.

                                I've also gotten to a point where CPU-generated draft picks are hitting their early/mid-30s, and some guys are regressing big-time and others aren't. And some guys have regressed in OVR but still have a lot of skills and are putting up very respectable numbers in the simulated stats, despite having dropped from, say, 87 to 79 OVR. I'll post more later when I get the chance to comb through my current league.

                                I wonder if it has to do with injury effects--maybe this has been done already, but has anyone played with toning down injury effect sliders? I've noticed that my players have made huge regressions, at times, with injuries. Perhaps reducing the effects slider would result in less regression?

                                I've also noticed that when I've set in-season training intensity to less than medium, I saw guys regress. I had a couple of stars around age 27-28 and decided to lower the intensity to low in order for them to have more energy during games, and they both regressed that off-season, and then stopped regressing when I changed my approach to that.
                                Last edited by BigT34; 01-13-2015, 02:47 PM.

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