The future for the NBA?

[pietasterp]

Re: The future for the NBA?

How is it not a "sports league"? .

It's not a professional sports league. College players aren't under contract, and teams don't exist only as a function of the NCAA (they aren't franchises). Way different entities, the NCAA and the NFL. Not even the same discussion.

A hard-cap definitely eliminates the possibility of the Miami Heat thing ever happening because they wouldn't be able to field a team if they tied up that much cash between the 3 of them. They signed for under the max, but that doesn't mean the team is under the cap. It's just that it doesn't matter, because with the NBA's soft cap, you can go over as much as you want (more or less...I'm over-simplifying), you just have to pay the luxury tax. As far as guaranteed contracts go, it's a little more complicated how that led to the current state of NBA hoops, but the upshot is that guaranteed contracts make the market extremely inefficient. Boatloads of cash are tied up in injured, underperforming, or flat-out bad players, which leads to the strategy of stockpiling bad, overwrought, expiring contracts from teams (which in recent years has become the hottest commodity in the NBA) in an effort to simultaneously unload bad contracts and make spots/money available for jackpot signings which will be inescapable from the teams' perspective once the ink goes to paper. The past 2-3 years, the NBA has been doing its impersonation of cap-and-trade, swapping the hottest commodity possible (bad contracts) for a license to go after 3-4 guys who everyone knew were going on the market at the same time....ergo what happened in Miami. The implications of guaranteed contracts are actually much more far-reaching than I can even think of off the top of my head (it's probably a 100-page financial report), but suffice to say they affect every single aspect of the NBA, and almost always in a negative way (except to the players). If you let teams adjust their balance sheets based on the performance/underperformance of their product, just like any other market in the world, the entire landscape of the NBA changes significantly. Teams get competitive more quickly, they can address needs faster/cheaper, and roster spots can be used in any way a team wants. As an added bonus, Vince Carter's last 2 years in Toronto never happen...

I'm not being difficult, just disagreeing with you.

[Cebby]

Re: The future for the NBA?

A hard-cap definitely eliminates the possibility of the Miami Heat thing ever happening because they wouldn't be able to field a team if they tied up that much cash between the 3 of them. They signed for under the max, but that doesn't mean the team is under the cap. It's just that it doesn't matter, because with the NBA's soft cap, you can go over as much as you want (more or less...I'm over-simplifying), you just have to pay the luxury tax.

That's not how the NBA's cap works.

You can only go over the cap by resigning players or through multi-year MLEs. You can't just sign free agents and go over the cap unless they're signing for the minimum.

The Heat would be the only super team that actually would have been able to occur. The Heat basically signed (it was technically a S&T but I believe they only traded picks) Lebron and Bosh and stayed slightly under the cap. Then they signed everyone Miller with the MLE and will fill out their roster with minimum contracts. Mike Miller is the only player who might not be there with a hard cap. You would have to be allowed to go over the cap to sign minimum contract players to fill out a roster.

At worst the Heat would have less depth because of no Mike Miller, but they would actually be in an even better position because the Lakers, Celtics, and Magic never would have been able to come close to assembling their teams if they couldn't resign players over the cap.

The Heat will actually have by far the lowest payroll of any of the top teams. The Thunder is the only team close and that's only because their top 2 players will be on rookie contracts.

[Bornindamecca]

Re: The future for the NBA?

Back on topic... the criticism is for Lebron. If Wade went to Cleveland he would've A)handled the move a lot more professionally even though Miami hasn't been supporting him since he was 12, B)caught less flack bc he's already been the clear MVP on a championship team, and C)caught less flack bc most considered James a better player anyway. Bosh could go wherever he wanted in all of this bc no one has any thought of him carrying a team to greatness anyway.

Also, Miami was not a first place team that has won over 125 games in the past two seasons. Wade also did not quit on his team in the playoffs. The criticism for Lebron isn't just one thing, it's a different part of everything. You take one aspect of what he did and it might raise eyebrows, but put it all together and it was just a classless douchey offseason for him. Again.

[wwharton]

Re: The future for the NBA?

Posts 1, 4, 12, and 16 on the first page of the thread differ, and I didn't go past that for the reference. There have been several posts stating that something in the next CBA should address what has happened here on a systemic level due to the increased possibility of teams intentionally tanking in order to follow this same business model.

I think you're stretching with all of those posts. They're all talking about the problems they have with what happened but I don't see any of them hating on the team for doing it. A couple explain what teams have been doing to allow it but not in a way to express anger for the team's actions. All I see is people upset with Lebron specifically for a number of reasons, and with the NBA for having a flawed system that allowed this team to be put together.

For example, I don't hate the Yankees for throwing tons of money at every big name player they see. I'm mad at the MLB for having a system that lets it happen.

[pietasterp]

Re: The future for the NBA?

That's not how the NBA's cap works.

You can only go over the cap by resigning players or through multi-year MLEs. You can't just sign free agents and go over the cap unless they're signing for the minimum.

The Heat would be the only super team that actually would have been able to occur. The Heat basically signed (it was technically a S&T but I believe they only traded picks) Lebron and Bosh and stayed slightly under the cap. Then they signed everyone Miller with the MLE and will fill out their roster with minimum contracts. Mike Miller is the only player who might not be there with a hard cap. You would have to be allowed to go over the cap to sign minimum contract players to fill out a roster.

At worst the Heat would have less depth because of no Mike Miller, but they would actually be in an even better position because the Lakers, Celtics, and Magic never would have been able to come close to assembling their teams if they couldn't resign players over the cap.

The Heat will actually have by far the lowest payroll of any of the top teams. The Thunder is the only team close and that's only because their top 2 players will be on rookie contracts.

I guess I didn't mean to imply the soft cap equaled a free-for-all MLB-style (although it's closer to that then, say, the NHL's hard cap, hence the impending lockout), but there are a huge number of exceptions and work-arounds such that a team willing to spend can, in essence, almost spend to their hearts' desire. Not only the mid-level exceptions and Larry Birds, but the rookie exception, the biannual exception, early bird, non-qualifying exception, minimum salary exception, traded player exception, etc. etc. It's ludicrous to the point where you can pretty much shoe-horn most guys you want to sign into an exception category and go over the cap. That's what the Knicks have been doing for years...

My argument has to do with the overall health and structure of the league, in its present form. What happened with the Heat is symptomatic of a confluence of forces that led to a relatively down league, bland product, and ability of 2-3 key guys to hijack the competitive balance with relative ease. So even if you parse the minutiae of my arguments to defend the Heat, the up-shot is that the league is not healthy (either financially or in terms of the aesthetic/interest in their product). The NBA is a troubled asset right now, and the owners know it. I'm counting on a lengthy lock-out to create a "market correction" of sorts and hopefully put this product back to where it could/should be.

[slimm44]

Re: The future for the NBA?

I think you're stretching with all of those posts. They're all talking about the problems they have with what happened but I don't see any of them hating on the team for doing it. A couple explain what teams have been doing to allow it but not in a way to express anger for the team's actions. All I see is people upset with Lebron specifically for a number of reasons, and with the NBA for having a flawed system that allowed this team to be put together.

For example, I don't hate the Yankees for throwing tons of money at every big name player they see. I'm mad at the MLB for having a system that lets it happen.

I guess we're either A. reading two different things or B. our reading comprehension is different. The thread was created to avoid the LBJ talk. It was emphasized in the first post and it's four main points were

No 1: First off, Miami is a Dolphins town that is awful for all other pro sports. Heat aren't a huge draw, even when they had Shaq and Wade.

No. 2: It destroys hopes of NBA teams in Cleveland, Toronto, New York and New Jersey. It also harms Boston and Chicago because the team is so stacked. The Nets just got shutout. How about that Mikhail?

No. 3: The NBA needs rivalries. Celtics could beat that team, but they are declining. The Lakers have an aging Kobe Bryant. What happens when the Celts get old? The Magic and Heat battling for the ECF? THAT DESTROYS THE NBA. It makes anything North of the Florida all the way to the West Coast irrelevant.

No 4: It harms the NBA brand. LeBron and Wade need to be competitors. They should be fierce rivals that the NBA could sell. When one wins a title or Wade a second, then they can market them as all-time greats. But, together? They hurt each others legacy.

Yet you still think it focuses on LBJ.

The players orchestrated this situation but the team definitely didn't shy away from it. The team, players and league system all worked together to create the perfect storm. Take the orchestration of the players away, change Miami's willingness to accept what was happening and to gut their entire roster, or change the CBA and this situation doesn't exist. They all played their part.

If anything, I hope the next CBA has some clause about "anti-tanking". Don't know how or if they can, but I hope they work on it.

[Cebby]

Re: The future for the NBA?

I guess I didn't mean to imply the soft cap equaled a free-for-all MLB-style (although it's closer to that then, say, the NHL's hard cap, hence the impending lockout), but there are a huge number of exceptions and work-arounds such that a team willing to spend can, in essence, almost spend to their hearts' desire. Not only the mid-level exceptions and Larry Birds, but the rookie exception, the biannual exception, early bird, non-qualifying exception, minimum salary exception, traded player exception, etc. etc. It's ludicrous to the point where you can pretty much shoe-horn most guys you want to sign into an exception category and go over the cap. That's what the Knicks have been doing for years...

As far as I know the only exceptions the Heat are using are the MLE and the minimum salary. The minimum salary exception exists in every sport and would exist with any negotiations.

I'm counting on a lengthy lock-out to create a "market correction" of sorts and hopefully put this product back to where it could/should be.

And again, if Wade, Bosh, and Lebron are willing to be unselfish and accept lower salaries, there's nothing the league can do.

[Cebby]

Re: The future for the NBA?

No 1: First off, Miami is a Dolphins town that is awful for all other pro sports. Heat aren't a huge draw, even when they had Shaq and Wade.

This is just blatantly wrong. The Heat finished fourth in attendance for the 3 years before, during, and after the championship season with 100%+ capacity.

No. 2: It destroys hopes of NBA teams in Cleveland, Toronto, New York and New Jersey. It also harms Boston and Chicago because the team is so stacked. The Nets just got shutout. How about that Mikhail?

Too bad. Cleveland and Toronto should have built better teams around Lebron and Bosh and the other two just didn't get a major free agent. Washington, OKC, Memphis, and the Clippers all missed out on major free agents when they had cap space. Free agents are "free" for a reason.

No. 3: The NBA needs rivalries. Celtics could beat that team, but they are declining. The Lakers have an aging Kobe Bryant. What happens when the Celts get old? The Magic and Heat battling for the ECF? THAT DESTROYS THE NBA. It makes anything North of the Florida all the way to the West Coast irrelevant.

The NBA will still have rivalries. Miami/LA will be a rivalry. Multiple other smaller rivalries will emerge as they did during the 90s when Chicago was beating everyone.

No 4: It harms the NBA brand. LeBron and Wade need to be competitors. They should be fierce rivals that the NBA could sell. When one wins a title or Wade a second, then they can market them as all-time greats. But, together? They hurt each others legacy.

Did Kobe, Howard, Durant, Amare, Melo, and the 80 great point guards cease to exist in the last week?

The NBA has had super-star teams since the beginning.

In terms of teams that had 2 First Team All NBA players at the same time you have:

Shaq/Kobe Lakers
Jordan/Pippen Bulls
Stockton/Malone Jazz
Bird/McHale Celtics
Magic/Kareem Lakers
Dr. J/Moses 76ers
About 50 combinations of Lakers and Celtics in the 50s and 60s

Those are only 2 first teamers. If you include second teamers it goes through the roof.

[Jukeman]

Re: The future for the NBA?

As far as I know the only exceptions the Heat are using are the MLE and the minimum salary. The minimum salary exception exists in every sport and would exist with any negotiations.



And again, if Wade, Bosh, and Lebron are willing to be unselfish and accept lower salaries, there's nothing the league can do.

Yea I dont understand that...

Only rule that would keep star players from being on a team together is something that will prolly go against a human right...

If players are willing to take pay cuts to play together none of the things he mention would not keep the best players on different teams around the league...

[pietasterp]

Re: The future for the NBA?

What I tried to make clear earlier (and obviously didn't do a good job of), is that my arguments are about the health of the league as a whole; and whether of not any specific rules came into play which begat the Miami deals, the issue is that the whole environment of the league is such that the players a) wanted to and b) were able to put together this cadre of talent in South Beach. It may not be the case that what happened with the Heat would not have happened in another sporting environment, but the NBA's current contract/salary/financial structure are such that these kinds of things are not only possible, but likely (as we just saw). Had the entire environment been different, maybe different/more teams would have been competitive, different/more cities would have been able to build teams differently in a more efficient player market, and the league as a whole would not be one where there were only 3-4 places anyone wanted to go. This has more to do with team structure than just a simple geography argument (South Beach vs Cleveland, for example); in hockey, for instance, for a long period of time (and still to some extent) Detroit was a much more desirable place to play than almost anywhere else. Green Bay and Minnesota, even today, are highly desirable locations for many NFL players. These issues just aren't as straightforward as everyone seems to suggest.

I'm not saying there should be a rule specifically to prevent what happened in Miami from happening (if that were even possible); I'm talking more globally/macroscopically. I'm trying to argue that if the financial structure of the league were fundamentally different, we might have a vastly different free agent and player/team landscape, which may (or may not) be much better than the one we have now.

[wwharton]

Re: The future for the NBA?

I guess we're either A. reading two different things or B. our reading comprehension is different. The thread was created to avoid the LBJ talk. It was emphasized in the first post and it's four main points were

No 1: First off, Miami is a Dolphins town that is awful for all other pro sports. Heat aren't a huge draw, even when they had Shaq and Wade.

No. 2: It destroys hopes of NBA teams in Cleveland, Toronto, New York and New Jersey. It also harms Boston and Chicago because the team is so stacked. The Nets just got shutout. How about that Mikhail?

No. 3: The NBA needs rivalries. Celtics could beat that team, but they are declining. The Lakers have an aging Kobe Bryant. What happens when the Celts get old? The Magic and Heat battling for the ECF? THAT DESTROYS THE NBA. It makes anything North of the Florida all the way to the West Coast irrelevant.

No 4: It harms the NBA brand. LeBron and Wade need to be competitors. They should be fierce rivals that the NBA could sell. When one wins a title or Wade a second, then they can market them as all-time greats. But, together? They hurt each others legacy.

Yet you still think it focuses on LBJ.

The players orchestrated this situation but the team definitely didn't shy away from it. The team, players and league system all worked together to create the perfect storm. Take the orchestration of the players away, change Miami's willingness to accept what was happening and to gut their entire roster, or change the CBA and this situation doesn't exist. They all played their part.

If anything, I hope the next CBA has some clause about "anti-tanking". Don't know how or if they can, but I hope they work on it.

What I said is that people aren't mad at the Heat. MOST of the focus is on LBJ for various reasons, some on the league for allowing this to be possible (though I'm not sure how they could stop it). Nothing you just posted has anything to do with the team doing anything wrong, besides the part about them making moves to allow it to be possible... and that's your personal opinion (one that I agree with), not something that was previously posted.

It seems like we're either saying the same thing or on the same page for the most part. I still don't see anyone upset about anything the Heat has done, which is why I initially responded to you,

[slimm44]

Re: The future for the NBA?

This is just blatantly wrong. The Heat finished fourth in attendance for the 3 years before, during, and after the championship season with 100%+ capacity.



Too bad. Cleveland and Toronto should have built better teams around Lebron and Bosh and the other two just didn't get a major free agent. Washington, OKC, Memphis, and the Clippers all missed out on major free agents when they had cap space. Free agents are "free" for a reason.



The NBA will still have rivalries. Miami/LA will be a rivalry. Multiple other smaller rivalries will emerge as they did during the 90s when Chicago was beating everyone.



Did Kobe, Howard, Durant, Amare, Melo, and the 80 great point guards cease to exist in the last week?

The NBA has had super-star teams since the beginning.

In terms of teams that had 2 First Team All NBA players at the same time you have:

Shaq/Kobe Lakers
Jordan/Pippen Bulls
Stockton/Malone Jazz
Bird/McHale Celtics
Magic/Kareem Lakers
Dr. J/Moses 76ers
About 50 combinations of Lakers and Celtics in the 50s and 60s

Those are only 2 first teamers. If you include second teamers it goes through the roof.

I was quoting the premise the thread began on, not stating that I agree/disagree with any of it.

[Cebby]

Re: The future for the NBA?

I was quoting the premise the thread began on, not stating that I agree/disagree with any of it.

Sorry then.

[slimm44]

Re: The future for the NBA?

Sorry then.

No prob. It happens.

[HMcCoy]

Re: The future for the NBA?

Haven't read through the entire thread, and this has probably already been mentioned...but the only way this is really bad for the league is if it continues. CP3 is already touting yet another big 3 in NY with he and Melo joining STAT. Whats next? Dwight Howard and Deron Williams saying F-it and meeting up with Durantula in Brooklyn in 5 years?

IMO, having the top 12-15 players all playing for four premium destination markets would kill the league.