CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

[Caulfield]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

You could always go to Russia and get the vaccine

in Soviet Russia, vaccine gets you

[Cardot]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

If I told you that Covid-19's IFR(Infection Fatality Rate) was 00.04% compared to that of 00.10% for the flu, and that the flu spread more easily among children than Covid-19 did, and that Covid-19 was less severe for children than the flu was, would your opinions change with regards to lockdowns, school closures, etc.?

Yeah, it sounds like the flu is more than 2X as bad as Covid. You have convinced me. Lets open everything up now.

[KSUowls]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

To answer Canes question, I think you may have have a typo that is pretty important for this discussion. The IFR for the flu is about 0.1% whereas for covid it is between 0.4%-1.5%.

If the numbers were reversed then I would feel better, but based on the potential long term health affects that have been reported that fall short of fatality, there still isn't enough information to be comfortable with that decision, personally.

I don't know where my comfort spot is. Probably just whenever we have a vaccine. It won't be full proof, but the world can't be shut down forever.

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[dubcity]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Now I will point out hyperbole like the statement about half of the teachers dying when the IFR was said to be 00.04% in my post. That's clearly an exaggeration that needs to be shot down immediately because those types of fear mongering comments do no good. A school of 200 teachers would have that 0.00....16 chance o half the teachers dying. They'd have a less than 1% chance of a single teacher dying.

People are just more comfortable with hyperbole in the negative direction, for whatever reason. Might be a product of early media coverage of all this, and people being affected by that long term. It definitely bugs me, but what can you do.

[p_rushing]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Lockdown was to mitigate, not to stop. Flatten the curve, not get rid of it.



Getting rid of it requires time and information, those two will inform the new normal (vaccines, treatments, etc). Finding the middle ground of locking things down and economic viability is what threads the needle and buys us a lot of both.



Apply politics, conspiracies, etc and it's a wreck on a wreck though.

I get that, but once you open back up it was always going to spike. The virus didn't magically go away and the lock down wasn't good enough to cause the virus to die out.

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[NYJets]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I get that, but once you open back up it was always going to spike. The virus didn't magically go away and the lock down wasn't good enough to cause the virus to die out.

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The idea was to lockdown until you got it to a manageable number and then open up slowly in phases maintaining mask wearing and social distancing. Instead many places opened up when they just decided they had enough, not when the data supported it, they didn’t wear masks, and they didn’t start slow.

Yes we’ve seen other countries that had locked down have spikes but a lot of those spikes are nowhere near what’s going on here now.


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[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

To answer Canes question, I think you may have have a typo that is pretty important for this discussion. The IFR for the flu is about 0.1% whereas for covid it is between 0.4%-1.5%.

If the numbers were reversed then I would feel better, but based on the potential long term health affects that have been reported that fall short of fatality, there still isn't enough information to be comfortable with that decision, personally.

I don't know where my comfort spot is. Probably just whenever we have a vaccine. It won't be full proof, but the world can't be shut down forever.

Sent from my S10 using Operation Sports mobile app

Thanks KSU, I thought I was losing my mind because I knew from the onset that Dr. Faucci said the seasonal flu was at a .10 fatality rate and if Covid was at a 1% fatality rate, the difference would be tenfold.

People comparing the seasonal flu to Covid is a bunch of hyperbole, too, but when you hear the same thing early on from the media and our leaders, what can you do?

I will go back to large crowds and sporting events when a vaccine is available.

[canes21]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

To answer Canes question, I think you may have have a typo that is pretty important for this discussion. The IFR for the flu is about 0.1% whereas for covid it is between 0.4%-1.5%.

If the numbers were reversed then I would feel better, but based on the potential long term health affects that have been reported that fall short of fatality, there still isn't enough information to be comfortable with that decision, personally.

I don't know where my comfort spot is. Probably just whenever we have a vaccine. It won't be full proof, but the world can't be shut down forever.

Sent from my S10 using Operation Sports mobile app

IIt's not a typo. That is the IFR for people of any condition under the age of 70, at least it is what I have seen being thrown around a bunch lately. I've not been on my PC at home yet today to look at the data and personally confirm the number, but I've seen that number mentioned a bit the last couple of days.



I purposefully withheld that information because I wanted to jumpstart the conversation. I never claimed in my initial post that that was the official number for all individuals, but I can understand if someone took my post as if that was the official IFR for all people including those 70 and above.



Like I said, I've yet to look at the data and verify it myself, but I do know that elderly people make up not even a quarter of confirmed cases, but are 80+% of the deaths, so I'd say the IFR for all individuals under 70 is probably a very very low number.

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

IIt's not a typo. That is the IFR for people of any condition under the age of 70, at least it is what I have seen being thrown around a bunch lately. I've not been on my PC at home yet today to look at the data and personally confirm the number, but I've seen that number mentioned a bit the last couple of days.



I purposefully withheld that information because I wanted to jumpstart the conversation. I never claimed in my initial post that that was the official number for all individuals, but I can understand if someone took my post as if that was the official IFR for all people including those 70 and above.



Like I said, I've yet to look at the data and verify it myself, but I do know that elderly people make up not even a quarter of confirmed cases, but are 80+% of the deaths, so I'd say the IFR for all individuals under 70 is probably a very very low number.

It's a best case guess at best.

The WHO's latest guess as of August 7th was .6 percent, which is still 6 times greater than seasonal flu. .4% is 4 times greater than seasonal flu.

These are all best guesses. If it plays out at .6 percent, that would be 2 million American's that die of Covid.

Mortality rate greater than IFR for me because it's the bottom line.

Here is the latest I found on infecting people:

Each person with the coronavirus appears to infect 2.2 other people, on average. But the figure is skewed by the fact that the epidemic was not managed well in the beginning, and infections soared in Wuhan and the surrounding province. As an epidemic comes under control, the reproduction number, as it’s called, will fall.

By comparison, the figure for the seasonal flu is roughly 1.3. The reproduction number for the flu of 1918 was about the same as that of the new coronavirus, perhaps higher, but that was before modern treatments and vaccines were available.

I'm going with mortality rate over IFR every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

[KSUowls]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

IIt's not a typo. That is the IFR for people of any condition under the age of 70, at least it is what I have seen being thrown around a bunch lately. I've not been on my PC at home yet today to look at the data and personally confirm the number, but I've seen that number mentioned a bit the last couple of days.



I purposefully withheld that information because I wanted to jumpstart the conversation. I never claimed in my initial post that that was the official number for all individuals, but I can understand if someone took my post as if that was the official IFR for all people including those 70 and above.



Like I said, I've yet to look at the data and verify it myself, but I do know that elderly people make up not even a quarter of confirmed cases, but are 80+% of the deaths, so I'd say the IFR for all individuals under 70 is probably a very very low number.

Ah, I missed the part about being under 70.

From that point I would probably want a more comprehensive set of data as there are a lot of age demographics below 70. In addition to that I'd also want a better understanding of long term effects for those cases that don't result in mortality before I would be comfortable in sending kids back to school.

Also, just when I see things like in my state where schools have been back in session for one week and we're already seeing multiple cases of positive covid tests. That concerns me for those students exposing their older teachers as well as bringing it home. That's my perspective anyway.

[canes21]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

It's a best case guess at best.

The WHO's latest guess as of August 7th was .6 percent, which is still 6 times greater than seasonal flu. .4% is 4 times greater than seasonal flu.

These are all best guesses. If it plays out at .6 percent, that would be 2 million American's that die of Covid.

That's if it held steady at .6 for the entire population and 100% of the population got it. Considering what information we do have, we can break the population down by demographics/age, we can view the confirmed cases and deaths the CDC provides by age, and make a much more accurate guess as to the total death count if the entire country somehow contracted the virus. The number probably doesn't sniff 2 million if we do that.

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

That's if it held steady at .6 for the entire population and 100% of the population got it. Considering what information we do have, we can break the population down by demographics/age, we can view the confirmed cases and deaths the CDC provides by age, and make a much more accurate guess as to the total death count if the entire country somehow contracted the virus. The number probably doesn't sniff 2 million if we do that.

A lot of what if and best guesses, which is all one can do at this point.

I read somewhere recently, based on a study, the virus won't go away completely for 3 or 4 years.

I hope your right it doesn't sniff that total, let's hope vaccines and therapies reduce that total.

[canes21]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

A lot of what if and best guesses, which is all one can do at this point.

I read somewhere recently, based on a study, the virus won't go away completely for 3 or 4 years.

I hope your right it doesn't sniff that total, let's hope vaccines and therapies reduce that total.

I hope it doesn't sniff anything close to even half that. I'd like to think it won't and that we are going to see everything start to slow down moving forward and that a real vaccine will be here sooner rather than later, but it really is guesswork at this point.

[canes21]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Here are some numbers for the IFR value. These are not nation-wide numbers, they are for Minnesota only, but these sourced numbers show how the IFR dives off of a cliff when you take away the elderly individuals. Again, I want to reiterate that these elderly people are people too, and it is difficult to talk numbers without it coming off as insensitive, but in order for us to talk numbers and decisions, people have to be put into groups and this is true for not only pandemic talks, but for the majority of decisions made in life. You're not going to go through life not having to make a decision that doesn't force you to paint people as statistics for a second, especially in leadership roles.

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Yep, agree Canes, and for this virus, I'm living for my parents and grandparents living longer lives than what Covid could give them, it's always been about that and that is how I was raised by my parents.

All four of them are in a vulnerable age group and grandparents are vulnerable in health related areas.

Good find.