CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

[slickdtc]

CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I read an article yesterday about how Hong Kong has screwed up by "relaxing" and slowly getting back to normal. Despite being a "poster child" for how to handle this early on, they have relaxed and have experienced a sharp spike in cases since doing so.

Now, they are tightening back up.

This is definitely going to happen here in the US. Don’t be surprised.

Even this relatively short week or two interruption has totally be****led everything, people are ready to give it up (making it pointless) and let their fellow man die and they’ll make any excuse to do so. The shutdown has been cosmetic for many, a halfhearted show of good faith. Trying to eradicate this thing requires all hands on deck, you either go all in as states are with the shutdowns or you don’t. We’re absolutely fumbling right now. Cut the ****, take this massive L and see where we stand on the other side of it. It’s happening, it’s going to happen, hunker down. Trying to save it now with people’s morale down (regarding their health) will not end well. The market hates uncertainty, yet they think when people fear going to the store, telling everyone to go back to work will assure the markets? We were in free fall before anything even got shut down. The only thing that would go up if we return back to work is body counts.

Of course there’s a discussion of public health safety vs economic impact, but seeing the numbers I don’t think it’s much of a choice. We need to go back, of course we do, but we can’t knowingly put people in harms way with a virus that puts you in the hospital with a *** **** tube jammed down your throat — if you’re lucky enough to get one. Releasing everyone back in to the wild will be absolutely catastrophic on the healthcare system that’s barely holding up as it is.

We can accomplish both safety and economic relief, to a degree. We can offset the tanking of the economy a bit with a little help, but the powers that be seem reluctant to offer it to the millions who need it and would rather hand it, no questions asked, to a handful of corps. Totally failing the people when they need it most. We know where our bread is buttered.

[PVarck31]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

So since my wife is a nurse and potentially exposed. We’ve decided to start social distancing at home. Really sucks.


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My wife is a nurse too. We should do the same. I hugged her when she got home from work tonight. So who knows. Supposedly her nursing home has no cases. But you never know.

I think tomorrow we will start doing 6 feet away from each other.

[JayBee74]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Some Young & Restless actor got the virus and was very ill with pneumonia and an 11-day fever but is on the mend. His spouse and kid got sick but recovered quickly, while he didn't.

He is a 43 year old non-smoker in otherwise good health. I never heard of him because I don't watch Young & Restless.

[mpklub]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Going to leave this right here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...ts-died-italy/

Key excerpt from the article:
"“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.

This does not mean that Covid-19 did not contribute to a patient's death, rather it demonstrates that Italy's fatality toll has surged as a large proportion of patients have underlying health conditions. Experts have also warned against making direct comparisons between countries due to discrepancies in testing."



My intention is not to downplay or pretend COVID-19 is not serious. It is. But articles like this show that there is a lot of noise in the data we do have, and there are a lot of unknowns. I interpret this to mean that if you have health problems COVID-19 is going to make them much worse and cause them to flare up in ways that you will die. My FIL had a heart attack over the summer and is a smoker. There is a good chance if he gets COVID-19 he will die because the virus will cause problems in his system that cause his underlying health problems to flare up.

Yes, we are seeing younger folks being hospitalized and possibly even dying. In any case there will always be outliers in the data. I also haven't seen anything that says how many of them have comorbidities. Of maybe it truly is more lethal than we think.

My point is, there is a lot going on right now and it is hard to draw definitive conclusions. If the Italy death numbers have that type of noise in them, that leads me to believe there is a lot we are still figuring out about COVID-19 as a society. Let's look at the data we do have holistically and go from there. Picking one or two things that articulate and support certain viewpoints doesn't help. It creates fear, panic, and makes people do irrational things.

I am not an epidemiologist or a biostatistician, but I have spent most of my career manipulating data and interpreting data to make business decisions. One of the first things you learn in any data or stats class is that the hardest thing in data analysis is not the actual analysis, but ensuring your data is of good quality and capable of providing you meaningful results. From what I can see in the COVID-19 data we do have it is incomplete and hard to draw conclusions. I think Dr. Fauci has done a great job of trying to help us navigate those waters while emphasizing the bad maybe more than he would otherwise like to because there are a lot of people not listening.

Here is what I think we can definitively take from the data based on what is available:
* COVID-19 is worse than the flu and spreads easier than flu. This seems to be very clear. I think COVID-19 infects twice as many people as one flu patient. For this reason along we need to be careful because the infection spreads so easily.
* It appears to be much more lethal to older populations or those with compromised immune systems
* As with anything, even if you are healthy and young, the risk that this could impact you or kill you is greater than zero
* There is believed to be a large number of people who are asymptomatic and/or have mild symptoms that are not counted in the current data which is based off of confirmed cases


Personally, I think the mortality rate will end being below 1% and if you are healthy and below a certain age it probably will be below .5%. Still much more lethal than the flu, but not the beginning of the zombie apocalypse.

I am not an expert, and I am not trying to downplay. I am just trying to draw conclusions based on what I know about data and what I see in the data we do have. I could be dead wrong. My point is, the facts are still developing and nothing is definitive. If that article is accurate about Italy, it paints a different picture of COVID-19. It means COVID-19 itself is less of a killer, and that it causes extreme harm in underlying medical conditions. Right now its best to listen to the experts and see how things play out. Panicking doesn't help anyone. Young people will get sick and die. Just based on the number of folks this disease has infected and will continue infect that is going to happen. That doesn't mean the virus is going to wipe us out. It means the chance of dying as a younger person of COVID-19 is greater than zero (which we know to be true anyways).

Hopefully people are starting to take social distancing seriously and we get over the hump in the next few weeks. There is a mountain of economic pain coming that will be harder and harder to ignore the longer this goes on, and it won't just be service workers. Hopefully current measures allow us to ramp up production of PPE and get some makeshift hospitals set up. Either way, once the dust settles, I will be interested to see what the Epidemiologists say. Let's take COVID-19 seriously, but also keep in mind it probably isn't the zombie apocalypse.

[slickdtc]

CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I totally agree with your approach to be cautious but not paralyzed. Having a background in analysis as well, this has been a fascinating study in data and how it can be presented and manipulated.

I understand that CV may not be the only cause of death, but certainly seems to be the catalyst for why someone who was alive before it is dead now. I know flu also produces this type of acceleration but this thing seems to be a beast of a virus. I don’t particularly think saying CV is just part of a death helps at all. Though I do agree if we examined every death pre-CV we’d see plenty of cases where there are multiple causes.

I know other countries demographics factor in as well, but are we better off on this basis or worse? Italy is about 7 years older on average, and they smoke, but we’re an obese country by and large with tons of people with medical issues. I think we’re on higher risk end.

A massive country with existing health issues, a bumbling federal government, and a fragile healthcare system. Seems like the perfect storm for disaster when forecasting out the next a month or two.

[mpklub]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I totally agree with your approach to be cautious but not paralyzed. Having a background in analysis as well, this has been a fascinating study in data and how it can be presented and manipulated.

I understand that CV may not be the only cause of death, but certainly seems to be the catalyst for why someone who was alive before it is dead now. I know flu also produces this type of acceleration but this thing seems to be a beast of a virus. I don’t particularly think saying CV is just part of a death helps at all. Though I do agree if we examined every death pre-CV we’d see plenty of cases where there are multiple causes.

I know other countries demographics factor in as well, but are we better off on this basis or worse? Italy is about 7 years older on average, and they smoke, but we’re an obese country by and large with tons of people with medical issues. I think we’re on higher risk end.

A massive country with existing health issues, a bumbling federal government, and a fragile healthcare system. Seems like the perfect storm for disaster when forecasting out the next a month or two.

Yeah I agree.

And I just want to reiterate - I am not trying to say COVID-19 is just the flu. It's clearly not. But I do believe, based on the data and what healthcare professionals are saying, it can be managed. It's just new and we are learning as we go.

I tend to think if PPE and ventilator production gets ramped up things would open back up.

Hopefully in the long term this whole experience teaches us as a society to be more respectful of how illness can transmit and results in better hygiene, less disease spread and some improvements in healthcare to help us better manage a pandemic like this.

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[donkey33]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Isn't it more about the health system not coping due to COVID-19 related deaths whether that be from the virus itself or the fact that COVID-19 has taken a bed or resources and as such, a patient didn't receive the treatment they require or would normally receive?

If that occurs when the health systems are inundated and people pass away due to it, that's still a COVID-19 related death in my opinion and warrants being listed as one.

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

mpk, too long to copy, but good post.

All the scientists can do at this point with CV is look and study the past few months data of China, South Korea, Italy and etc...... I agree with everyone that the mortality rates will probably go down, especially once we flatten the curve.

They only people that I feel is the "zombie apocalypse" category are the people that are hoarding everyday products left and right and I feel they don't represent a majority of sensible people. These people probably have been rat packers their whole life and people that panic a lot under normal conditions.

Most of the people in my circle are sensible get ready to hunker down people and roll their eyes about people panic buying. My wife works in IT for a major manufactures and the governor ordered a Stay at Home guideline starting today. She has been working at home a few days per week before CV came along, but enjoys going into the office late afternoon with no one around her office and arriving home around midnight or later. She is someone that enjoys getting out of the house from time to time(cabin fever), but has decided to bring her work home and not make those odd hour trips to the facility, which is 30 miles away.

Stores in our area are finally putting the clamps down on that.

I hope once this is all said and done we become better and more united than before we started this thing, similar to 9/11.

Social distancing, spiritually connected, which is a different task and norm.

[mercalnd]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Isn't it more about the health system not coping due to COVID-19 related deaths whether that be from the virus itself or the fact that COVID-19 has taken a bed or resources and as such, a patient didn't receive the treatment they require or would normally receive?

If that occurs when the health systems are inundated and people pass away due to it, that's still a COVID-19 related death in my opinion and warrants being listed as one.

Yep. People that focus on the amount of deaths from the virus are missing a big part of the problem. Many who won't die will still need hospitalization which puts a big strain on the medical systems which are already running at max capacity in many places. That's why the spread needs to be spread over a longer period.

[mpklub]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Isn't it more about the health system not coping due to COVID-19 related deaths whether that be from the virus itself or the fact that COVID-19 has taken a bed or resources and as such, a patient didn't receive the treatment they require or would normally receive?

If that occurs when the health systems are inundated and people pass away due to it, that's still a COVID-19 related death in my opinion and warrants being listed as one.

Yes, hence the need to "flatten the curve". This helps slow infection, but what I think isn't brought up enough is it buys time to ramp up production of PPE, ventilators, and to create makeshift hospitals. The more I reflect,I think this is the end game. Lock downs buy us time to ramp up the production of tools we need to fight the virus and treat patients. It also allows hospitals to better prepare to treat.

Flattening the curve prolongs things and ultimately means the same number of people get infected over a longer period of time. I think (and I am speculating) the real goal with these lockdowns is to buy time to give out healthcare system the tools it needs to deal with the influx of patients

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[cima]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Just saw that a former boss of mine died after about a 10 day battle of double pneumonia and RSV. Was also battling 105 degree fevers at the end.

Sure as hell sounds like coronavirus to me. Reading his wife's FB was heartbreaking because she couldn't see him since last Tuesday due to the hospital banning visitors and he died yesterday. He also got denied a transfer to Mayo because of the virus (according to her FB) which is where doctors wanted him transferred.

He was in his mid-late 40s


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[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Just saw that a former boss of mine died after about a 10 day battle of double pneumonia and RSV. Was also battling 105 degree fevers at the end.

Sure as hell sounds like coronavirus to me. Reading his wife's FB was heartbreaking because she couldn't see him since last Tuesday due to the hospital banning visitors and he died yesterday. He also got denied a transfer to Mayo because of the virus (according to her FB) which is where doctors wanted him transferred.

He was in his mid-late 40s


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Sorry to hear Cima, sorry for your loss. Mid to late 40's there is still a lot more life to live.

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Milwaukee's big summer celebration, Summerfest, usually starts between the later part of June till just around July 7th.

The officials postponed it to 9 days in September, Thursdays, Fridays and Saturday's.

It's the right thing to do because around 850,000 people show up. It will be different a lot different celebrating Summerfest in September.

[Caulfield]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

terrible about the couple in Arizona (Phoenix?) that wanted to self-medicate against Covid and didnt even have it. they had heard about how chloroquine could possibly help but since they obviously didnt have the pharmaceutical version they took chloroquine phosphate, used to clean fish tanks & aquariums. the husband died and the wife is in critical condition. I'd link but I'm posting from a PlayStation

[BurghFan]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Just saw that a former boss of mine died after about a 10 day battle of double pneumonia and RSV. Was also battling 105 degree fevers at the end.

Sure as hell sounds like coronavirus to me. Reading his wife's FB was heartbreaking because she couldn't see him since last Tuesday due to the hospital banning visitors and he died yesterday. He also got denied a transfer to Mayo because of the virus (according to her FB) which is where doctors wanted him transferred.


He was in his mid-late 40s


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Sorry for your loss. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a completely different virus from coronavirus and is very common but usually only produces mild to no symptoms in adults. It more a problem in preterm infants and populations with compromised immune systems. It's possible he could have had concurrent infections though. Most respiratory viruses probably produce very similar symptoms so you can't really go on symptoms alone to determine the cause.

terrible about the couple in Arizona (Phoenix?) that wanted to self-medicate against Covid and didnt even have it. they had heard about how chloroquine could possibly help but since they obviously didnt have the pharmaceutical version they took chloroquine phosphate, used to clean fish tanks & aquariums. the husband died and the wife is in critical condition. I'd link but I'm posting from a PlayStation

Here's a link

https://www.abc15.com/news/state/valley-man-dies-wife-hospitalized-after-taking-chemicals-to-protect-from-coronavirus

Not sure of the mode of action for chloroquine, but I will note that malaria is caused by a parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, not a virus.