CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

[mestevo]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

While true, no one really knows anything yet. Until there is a treatment like the flu and tests are available at regular doctor office, it's all a guess.

It's probably less than 10x the flu because we are already there with little testing being done. It's probably closer to the South Korea numbers or less.

The plan so far has been to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed like in Italy. It is nothing to do with treatment or stopping it. The same thing could happen with the flu if everyone got it at the sametime. Unless 500,000+ people die in the US, it won't be 10x worse than the flu.

Fauci job is to give the worst case scenario and try to save as many people as possible. He isn't concerned with the lives of the living being ruined for 5+ years. Others have to balance the effects on the economy.

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I think you misunderstand Fauci's job. He tells the truth, not the worst case scenario. When someone asks him a question he answers it, he's not there to wear placards on both sides of him and spout the end is nigh. He relies on data and isn't here to prop up the economy or people's stocks, he's here to use science to steer his decisions and guidance.

The worst case scenario here is everyone declaring victory because some arbitrary number has been hit ('we're 8 days into a 15 day plan to stop the spread' was one I saw today) and people actually believe it - like the people who are dead / in critical condition because they took a 'cure' they saw on TV.

[pietasterp]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I think the point being made by p_rushing is no one has accurate data at this point (including Dr. Fauci), because the actual denominator is entirely reliant on reported cases from many countries, some of whom are more accurate than others, and therefore is really unknown.

We know it's off - but is it off by 3x or 30x? That obviously makes a huge difference in discussing the mortality rate.

Of course we're all concerned and all of us have loved ones at risk, but it doesn't help to anything to panic.

[pietasterp]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I think you misunderstand Fauci's job. He tells the truth, not the worst case scenario. When someone asks him a question he answers it, he's not there to wear placards on both sides of him and spout the end is nigh. He relies on data and isn't here to prop up the economy or people's stocks, he's here to use science to steer his decisions and guidance.

The worst case scenario here is everyone declaring victory because some arbitrary number has been hit ('we're 8 days into a 15 day plan to stop the spread' was one I saw today) and people actually believe it - like the people who are dead / in critical condition because they took a 'cure' they saw on TV.

Agreed but I think the whole point is that the actual denominator is unknown. He is relying on available data but the available data is totally incomplete, so he's doing the best he can.

[cusefan74]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

She got the virus and died. You don't even know the details of her health concerns or how long she might have been expected to live had she not contracted the virus. To downplay CV 19's impact to the point that it shouldn't count on the ledger is absurd.

My aunt is 84 and was diagnosed as having A-Fib and heart failure six years and is doing very well (including a recent EXCELLENT report) because of the advances in today's medicine. She could live another 5-10 years.

"sped up what was gonna happen anyways"?. You know how callous that sounds?

I wasn't being callous at all or downplaying anything. They said she did not die from the virus, she had other problems. So if she didn't die from the virus why should it be counted towards it? You're right, I don't know how long she would have lived, but you don't either, so blaming the virus that the doctors said didn't kill her is not right. How many people have died and had it but it didn't have anything to do with their death? Maybe none of them, maybe all the deaths were related to the virus. My point is less then 2% of the people in the U.S. that get it die from it. The number could change in either direction in the future, but as of now that is the number.

Also before you say I'm downplaying anything you should know, I'm a diabetic with a really bad immune system. I also spent 2 weeks in the hospital back in August with a flesh eating bacteria that nearly killed me and had me in surgery 4 times in 8 days. So I am not downplaying crap, I can't afford to downplay anything like this, but I refuse to live my life in fear also. There is always something going around that could kill me.

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Of course we're all concerned and all of us have loved ones at risk, but it doesn't help to anything to panic.

There isn't anything to panic about because there is nothing anyone can to except go by the guidelines.

I don't see anyone panicking, but maybe concern is a better word.

I have a neighbor that is in mid 60's, he won't even go a half block down the road to our house and visit. He had prostrate cancer several years ago. If that is the way some people feel, no one will change their mind.

I have a son that should be getting married in August and his future father in law came into contact with a person at work that tested positive. The future father in law shows no systems and our son has a cough, but he is requesting not to come into contact with people for at least 2 weeks to be on the safe side.

I don't think being cautious or concerned is a bad thing.

Edit-I think it's pretty much given that there are unsubstantiated numbers and the numbers are incomplete with the CV. All we can do is go by the #'s that are out there at this time.

[dubcity]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I think the point being made by p_rushing is no one has accurate data at this point (including Dr. Fauci), because the actual denominator is entirely reliant on reported cases from many countries, some of whom are more accurate than others, and therefore is really unknown.

We know it's off - but is it off by 3x or 30x? That obviously makes a huge difference in discussing the mortality rate.

Of course we're all concerned and all of us have loved ones at risk, but it doesn't help to anything to panic.

Exactly. There is no accurate mortality rate for this. None. We don't even know what % of people who have it ended up going to the hospital, let alone the chances of dying.

[mestevo]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

'we're not sure, so we should consider not taking all these precautions while people are dying to something we know is killing them' is a pretty odd stance to take to me.

[p_rushing]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I think the point being made by p_rushing is no one has accurate data at this point (including Dr. Fauci), because the actual denominator is entirely reliant on reported cases from many countries, some of whom are more accurate than others, and therefore is really unknown.

We know it's off - but is it off by 3x or 30x? That obviously makes a huge difference in discussing the mortality rate.

Of course we're all concerned and all of us have loved ones at risk, but it doesn't help to anything to panic.

Agreed but I think the whole point is that the actual denominator is unknown. He is relying on available data but the available data is totally incomplete, so he's doing the best he can.

That's exactly what I'm saying. In 2-3 weeks we may have tested enough people in the US to start making some determinations. The testing sites are still limiting tests though, my area is 250 per day. That is no where near enough to figure out the mortality rate. You can start to look at the hospitalization rate of positive tests, but that should continue to go down. If it doesn't, then there is a larger problem.

South Korea was testing a ton of people, +300,000, and there deaths are just above 100. They are a little over .01%.


That isn't to say there isn't other factors in play with the demographics of the people testing positive. While the US will probably be higher, it most likely won't be as high as they are saying now with the partial data.

I'm not saying stop the forced isolation now, but in 2-3 weeks we are going to have to do something because the economy dying will create more harm and affect more people.

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[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx have stated at the press conferences the only way they can study the CV is look at the pattern and numbers of China, South Korea, Italy and the EU.

The CV hasn't run it's coarse and until it does, we will be able to further discuss the numbers several month's down the road.

Until then, that's all we got.

We need to see if the curve starts to flatten to make any further decisions based off the 15 day guideline. The Surgeon General stated this will be a bad week for the rise in numbers and NY is experiencing that already.

I agree with p-rushing it will be 2-3 weeks before we see some more results.

[p_rushing]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

'we're not sure, so we should consider not taking all these precautions while people are dying to something we know is killing them' is a pretty odd stance to take to me.

As bad as it sounds, it is a calculation of the odds. People die from the flu, car wrecks, etc. It doesn't cause the government to stop those activities. It is up to people to choose to do those things. Similar to stopping people from driving, it would kill the economy. So is the mortality rate low enough to accept or do we need to stay isolated for months?

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[mestevo]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

As bad as it sounds, it is a calculation of the odds. People die from the flu, car wrecks, etc. It doesn't cause the government to stop those activities. It is up to people to choose to do those things. Similar to stopping people from driving, it would kill the economy. So is the mortality rate low enough to accept or do we need to stay isolated for months?

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Yeah and we've done nothing at all to make driving safer, or learn more about how to prevent cars from killing people.

[pietasterp]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

There isn't anything to panic about because there is nothing anyone can to except go by the guidelines.

I don't see anyone panicking, but maybe concern is a better word.

I have a neighbor that is in mid 60's, he won't even go a half block down the road to our house and visit. He had prostrate cancer several years ago. If that is the way some people feel, no one will change their mind.

I have a son that should be getting married in August and his future father in law came into contact with a person at work that tested positive. The future father in law shows no systems and our son has a cough, but he is requesting not to come into contact with people for at least 2 weeks to be on the safe side.

I don't think being cautious or concerned is a bad thing.

Edit-I think it's pretty much given that there are unsubstantiated numbers and the numbers are incomplete with the CV. All we can do is go by the #'s that are out there at this time.

Agree, I think some people's interpretation of caution is just different than others. Washing your hands, limiting close contact, etc is different than going to Costco and buying up all the toilet paper and making sure you stock up on ammo.

'we're not sure, so we should consider not taking all these precautions while people are dying to something we know is killing them' is a pretty odd stance to take to me.

I think it's all relative. For example, we could probably eliminate the vast majority of traffic deaths in this country by making the national speed limit 5MPH, but we've made a decision that some loss of life is the unfortunate trade-off for convenience/commerce. I'm not saying we're there yet with the current situation, and caution is always of primary concern, but what is the acceptable loss of life in order to continue a national lockdown?

I don't have the answer to that, I'm just trying to articulate that we're all essentially on the same page, it's not that some people care about loss of life and others don't. Let's give each other the benefit of the doubt and assume everyone cares and has loved ones at risk (because we all do), it's a matter of discussing what measures and to what extremes we should go and to what endpoint? Declining cases? Zero cases? I have no idea. But I think it's okay to ask questions.

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Agree, I think some people's interpretation of caution is just different than others. Washing your hands, limiting close contact, etc is different than going to Costco and buying up all the toilet paper and making sure you stock up on ammo.

That is definitely panic mode and I just don't get it.

I heard that our local Wal-Mart SC has put a limit on rolls of TP and other items and it's about time!

[pietasterp]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Another good idea I heard is that Costco isn't accepting any returns on TP, rice, etc. so, buy all you want, but don't bring it back when 2 months from now you are wondering what the hell you are going to do with 150lbs of rice (!)

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I don't have the answer to that, I'm just trying to articulate that we're all essentially on the same page, it's not that some people care about loss of life and others don't. Let's give each other the benefit of the doubt and assume everyone cares and has loved ones at risk (because we all do), it's a matter of discussing what measures and to what extremes we should go and to what endpoint? Declining cases? Zero cases? I have no idea. But I think it's okay to ask questions.

Those are all good questions, but the way I see it, out of my control and hands and goes more towards the leaders of the nation and task force.

Time will tell.

Our governor decided to place a stay at home order starting tomorrow because our cases doubled in number. So, he believes that people should stay with the people they live with, no sleepovers, no cooking dinner with neighbors, etc.... and shutting down all non- essential businesses.

Obviously, he didn't appreciate the numbers he analyzed over the weekend. He wants all hands on deck.

I'd be surprised if restrictions in our state will be lifted any time soon, so, time to talk to the Mrs. more. lol