The Confidence Mechanic

[NDAlum]

One word to describe the implementation of this mechanic: terrible

I'll briefly touch on why it's terrible as I'm not a long-winded type of person unless I truly know it's going to make a difference. Actually first off I'll touch on the good:

The Good
- The idea behind it is fresh and could help with immersion
- Getting a ratings boost for high confidence is great in theory
- Having a poor performing player play worse than their ratings is great in theory

The Issues
- You can lose far too much in one week (primarily QB position)
- Your gains are limited on really good games vs bad games
*Example: I throw 3 picks with Luck in a loss and I get -19 confidence. I then throw 4 TD's/0 INT's in a win and get +4 confidence.
*Example 2: Game winning touchdown with Nicks and he gets the "I should've contribute more" message and Trent Richardson with a 115 yd game with a TD and he doesn't get any bonus.

- The current "Player X performed well" formula is way off
*Example: Reggie Wayne catches 2 TD's and gets the "should've contributed more" message

They really need to tone their formula/equation for how players gain/lose confidence. Maybe have some type of fantasy football-esque scoring system to determine if guys had good games or not. An easy scale:

Horrendous game: -10 to -0.1 points (lose 7 confidence points)
Bad game: 0 to 3 points (lose 3 confidence points)
Average game: 3.1 to 9.9 points (no change)
Good game: 10 to 19.9 points (+3 confidence)
Great game: 20 to 24.9 points (+5 confidence)
Phenomenal game: 25+ points (+7 confidence)

Use a 0.5 PPR scoring format for all offensive players and figure out a system for D players. And let's not forget you can add stuff for winning a big game or losing one.

HB gets 100 yards + a TD and he's in the good game area so +3 confidence. I just think something so much easier can be put in this system that would be more accurate of a good/bad game.

To keep it short and sweet I'll end it there. It's a mini-game inside the game. Throw that 3rd pick and you know your QB is going to tank and you have to sink all your game prep time into him. Have a great game and you barely crawl your way out of the confidence hole.

The idea of a confidence system is great in theory but absolutely terrible with regards to implementation.

I really wish I could just turn it off because it's not a good system at this point in time.

[BeantowneS]

Quote: Originally Posted by NDAlum

One word to describe the implementation of this mechanic: terrible I'll briefly touch on why it's terrible as I'm not a long-winded type of person unless I truly know it's going to make a difference. Actually first off I'll touch on the good: The Good - The idea behind it is fresh and could help with immersion - Getting a ratings boost for high confidence is great in theory - Having a poor performing player play worse than their ratings is great in theory The Issues - You can lose far too much in one week (primarily QB position) - Your gains are limited on really good games vs bad games *Example: I throw 3 picks with Luck in a loss and I get -19 confidence. I then throw 4 TD's/0 INT's in a win and get +4 confidence. *Example 2: Game winning touchdown with Nicks and he gets the "I should've contribute more" message and Trent Richardson with a 115 yd game with a TD and he doesn't get any bonus. - The current "Player X performed well" formula is way off *Example: Reggie Wayne catches 2 TD's and gets the "should've contributed more" message They really need to tone their formula/equation for how players gain/lose confidence. Maybe have some type of fantasy football-esque scoring system to determine if guys had good games or not. An easy scale: Horrendous game: -10 to -0.1 points (lose 7 confidence points) Bad game: 0 to 3 points (lose 3 confidence points) Average game: 3.1 to 9.9 points (no change) Good game: 10 to 19.9 points (+3 confidence) Great game: 20 to 24.9 points (+5 confidence) Phenomenal game: 25+ points (+7 confidence) Use a 0.5 PPR scoring format for all offensive players and figure out a system for D players. And let's not forget you can add stuff for winning a big game or losing one. HB gets 100 yards + a TD and he's in the good game area so +3 confidence. I just think something so much easier can be put in this system that would be more accurate of a good/bad game. To keep it short and sweet I'll end it there. It's a mini-game inside the game. Throw that 3rd pick and you know your QB is going to tank and you have to sink all your game prep time into him. Have a great game and you barely crawl your way out of the confidence hole. The idea of a confidence system is great in theory but absolutely terrible with regards to implementation. I really wish I could just turn it off because it's not a good system at this point in time.

I AM SLOW CLAPPING WHILE YOU DROP THE MIC AND WALK OFF THE STAGE. BRILLIANT. Now only if EA would listen.

[The JareBear]

Great post ND. Really hope EA can tune this for online CFMs

[CM Hooe]

I enjoy the Confidence system as-is for a number of reasons as a game mechanic and I really don't think that it is unbalanced when combined with the ability to progress the Consistency rating and the ability to increase a player's confidence with Game Prep. However, I'm not going to focus on what I like about it in this post, rather I'm going to talk about how I think the whole thing could be made better.

I do think that the Confidence system - and the entire game, really - ought to more directly consider context in which stats were accumulated. For example, if a player makes one play in the entire game but it's the game-winning play (be it a TD, INT, sack, 30-yard run which sets up a game-winning field goal, whatever), that player ought to get at least a small boost and the "I should have contributed more!" penalty should be cancelled. The player just won the game, he should be pumped! He came through for his team when he was needed! Conversely, if a player runs for 200 yards, that shouldn't mean much if he lost a fumble which ended up losing the game for his team. Or if you throw for 500 yards but throw a game-losing INT on the final possession a la Tony Romo vs Denver in 2013.

In general everything in Madden CFM is very stats-driven, which while fine in previous years (particularly in a competitive multiplayer setting). I've been very vocally supportive of the current stats-driven gameplay loops of CFM. However, primary stats alone to drive the mode may no longer be sufficient going forward. Primary stats such as yards and touchdowns don't capture the narrative ebb and flow of a football game. A player running for 150 yards and two touchdowns means nothing without context; did those two touchdowns directly help his team win a la MVP season Shaun Alexander, or is the running back just grinding away for yards on a bad team with no other options a la Emmitt Smith in the early 2000s?

A potential solution - tracking win probability over the course of the game could help solve this issue. With that, Win Probability Added could be aggregated per-player, and the player's WPA could be used to mutate any modifications to confidence (and also XP derived from statistical achievements). Click the link for a more thorough explanation, but the idea behind WPA is to figure out how much a player contributed to a hypothetical victory or loss for his team.

Using WPA values calculated by Advanced Football Analytics from the recent Cowboys - Rams game in real life as an example, we can see that even though DeMarco Murray ran for 100 yards, he still had a fumble early which put his team in the hole, and that's accounted for as his WPA is slightly below zero. Rams' TE Jared Cook also ends up with a negative WPA on account of his dropped touchdown pass, even though he statistically torched the Cowboys; he missed an opportunity to really help his team seal the game. Tony Romo ends up with a huge WPA - even in spite of his pick-six to Janoris Jenkins - because the INT didn't contribute much to the Cowboys' likelihood of losing the game (the Cowboys win probability moved from 0.09 to 0.07 when they went from being down by 14 in the 2nd to being down by 21 in the 2nd), and every play Romo made going forward from that point contributed positively to his team's chances of winning, all the way through the completion of the comeback until the Cowboys' win probability is 1.00 (when they won the game and the clock expired).

I realize that's complicated and probably too much thought for me to be putting into something at 2 in the morning, but I digress. I've been thinking about WPA a lot lately and how it could be applied to Madden, and calculating changes in player confidence is just one spot where I think it could be a useful metric to reference.

[ggsimmonds]

I agree that there are ways in which it could be improved upon, but I would not go as far to say it is terrible.

All things considered I think it is a positive addition to the game even with its current shortcomings.

And Hooe -- I often think about implementing PFF grading into Madden. It actually should not be all that difficult. Under the engine the game is driven by equations. Whether a CB gets beat on a route is the result of calculations. Same for line interactions. We would need the game to remember the outcome of each equation, tally up each result for each player, and then convert that to a grade. That would be awesome and add so much. And of course it could affect the confidence mechanic as well.

[therewillbechud]

I haven't had much of an issue with the confidence system. People are saying that if you make a big play to directly affect the outcome of the game you shouldn't lose any confidence. Well look at Morris Claiborne, he made two big plays in the Cowboys game (sack and INT at the end) to seal the deal, and subsequently lost his job.

It makes sense to have poor performance games have a more detrimental effect than good games give you a boost. A bad 3 INT game for a QB should be an anomaly. If he has multiple of those kinds of games, most players in the league won't be starting for long. Most guys go on about their jobs and daily business and don't get recognized much. They should have good games, that's why they're starting and someone else isn't. But a receiver who usually has 8 catches a game suddenly catches 1, you can bet that's going to be noticed and he'll have to answer questions about it.

The confidence system like everything else isn't perfect, but I think it does a decent job of reflecting what goes on in the league.

[wordtobigbird]

FIFA's "form" system shows it can be done right. It should be dynamic based on play by play basis not a checklist at the end of the game with predetermined points.

[smace767]

Confidence is far from perfect and could use tweaking.

-The I could have done more is broke.

-Until DBs play like DBs and WR-DB interaction is handled, Get rid of "I should have had an INT" confidence hits. DBs have bad hands in most cases and to get more realistic interactions. Sliders have to treat what the game calls and makes look like a dropped INT, a pass breakup to keep the qb stats and ratings and DB coverage some what balanced.

-The impact play scoring, good and bad is broke.

-The game rates plays in the highlight reel. If you are on the good side of the great play you should be rewarded, the bad side, take a hit in confidence. -4th qrt and clutch moments should be weighted as well.

- To add depth, a 2k like player importance rating like they are trying to add with FA should impact confidence. If all you care about is money less/no confidence loss for losing, Caring about stats more confidence loss even in a win for a bad stat game. (A Cowboy fan who loves him some TO. But this is the TO/ old DEZ affect)

I have not as much of an issue with confidence after i looked at the bigger picture through a few seasons of play.

1) It is reality to loss confidence easier than it is to gain confidence. Not many people suffer from an overdose of confidence, but many people have self-esteem / confidence issues and it is not easy to address them.

Think Derk Anderson confident pro Bowler/ Derek Anderson no confidence backup, Matt Shaub - super backup to Mike Vick. Matt Shaub terrible Texans QB. Now there is more to those guys fall than just confidence. But confidence become a major part of the problem.

2) 31-79 is normal. A drop is only an issue if it gets below that 30 threshold.

It is not that difficult to get your starters to stay above that line. What some people have to do is do what you hear on Sunday, that OC do to get a QB or player more comfortable and confident. Call his number with simple passes or runs to get him going. Hit the underneath guy. Call screens or HB flares. Dont force the issue with a guy with a confidence problem unless you have to. The idea is to manage confidence during the season an upgrade XP in spots, but primarily during the offseason. I dont have an issue with that.

If you are winning you can develop. If you are losing or playing bad, more of your time is spent on motivational speeches and mental exercises even in real life.

3) Game prep and confidence is forcing what some of you guys wanted anyway. Most of your XP gain and improvement ends up being from weekly and milestone and season goals XP.

Think of it as training camps and offseason workouts. Only so much skill can be worked on during a season. A team on a losing streak has to manage confidence more than building a super team through XP upgrades. When you draft someone. What he is and does is what he will be for a lot of skill positions.

A zone CB with low man cover skills will be hard to make a man cover CB while managing the team confidence. A zone Tampa two CB is who he is. XP wont change that very easy during the season. But the option is there if you want to focus on him, if that's what you really want over other parts of team development.

4) Confidence also makes the draft and free agency more impactful.

From what i have seen there are a number of one dimensional players. Confidence management makes it harder to take that guy and up all his weak areas while managing the rest of the team. There is now an even more visible and tangible benefit to higher development guys. Its easier to manage their confidence and get them to high confidence states.

5) Winning and losing affect confidence more than just pumping points.

The system would not work if you could out point losing or bad performances. Some guys will lose confidence and become almost useless. Happens all the time. Some stars and pro-bowlers fade, while guys like Gates and Wayne still produce. This adds off-season decisions and you will have to cut lose guys now more than ever.

Just like in real life a guy might have the physical skill(ratings) but his head is messed up. He is not that effective and good. I thought that is something we would want.

Not perfect, far from it, but not terrible either and it forces some other things to be viewed in a more real world aspect of thought processes.