What do you do?

[kehlis]

I don't see a wrong decision unless your defense is completely inept or if you are playing against the Titans (they call that back side George reverse like no one can).

Whether you go for it and get stopped or miss the field goal you're looking at 60-70 yards to go with 10 seconds (depending on which of the two). If they score in that scenario that's not acceptable.

Punting is probably a pretty good option but because you'll have to pooch it it's not going to take much time off so if properly executed they have 90+ with 10 secs.


What do I do? I just stop them when they get the ball.

[Godgers12]

Fake punt pass, get the snap then run around with my P for as long as possible then if/when I feel a hit is imminent I'll throw it away. That would drain at least 10 secs off the clock, leaving him with 1 hailmerry attempt where unless his QB is Rodgers won't be able to reach the EZ anyway. I wouldn't want to risk punting or kicking a FG and pulling a Browns... Too soon?

[GoJags904]

Sky Punt and because if I can't stop a run back and/or 2 hail Marys in 20 seconds, I don't deserve the win.

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[ForUntoOblivionSoar∞]

Quote: Originally Posted by CM Hooe

Yes, absolutely. Let's do the math! tl;dr - the math says go for it and call a pass play. Let's start by agreeing on some facts. If we convert for a first down on 4th and 5, our win probability (herein WP) is 100%; we don't have to run another play before time runs out and our opponent can't stop the clock, so we are guaranteed to win. In addition, if there is any outcome which results in our opponent getting the ball back, including scoring points to increase our lead, our WP necessarily cannot be 100% because the ridiculous scenarios I outlined are still in play; it is still possible to lose, even if it takes an act of God to do so. Using ProFootballReference's win probability calculator and some models from Advanced Football Analytics: if we turn the ball over on downs and somehow lose six yards doing so (unlikely, but let's say we get sacked), our WP is still 95.59%. More realistically, we simply throw an incomplete pass or throw the ball away to avoid a sack, and our win WP after the turnover is 95.71%. Let's be reasonable and go with the second number. To get both these numbers, I also ran five seconds off the clock for the time it takes to run the play, regardless of the result. If we miss the field goal, that's an automatic seven yard loss for the spot of the kick and five seconds lost, which leaves us a WP of 95.57% for us after the turnover. If we make the field goal and immediately kick a touchback (best case scenario, so no possible kick return but no additional time run off the clock beyond those same five seconds), our WP is 99.86%. The odds of making a field goal from 47 yards out, all things held constant, is 67%, per Advanced Football Analytics. The odds of missing are in turn 33%. Again being reasonable, we will assume for this scenario that if the field goal is blocked, it is not returned; it is same result as if it were simply missed, a seven-yard loss and a turnover. We then calculate expected WP for each scenario using proportions. For the field goal scenario, the expected WP is: 99.86% * 67% + 95.57% * 33% = 98.44% Similarly, to get the expected WP for going for it: 100% * P(1stDown) + 95.71% * (1 - P(1stDown)) = expectedWP(GoForIt) The break-even point in the go-for-it equation - what you have to set P(1stDown) to for both equations to have the same result - is 63.7366%. If you think you have exactly that chance of gaining at least five yards, the decision between going for it and kicking a field goal is a wash. If you think you have better than 63.7366% chance of making it, you should go for it. If you think you have a worse chance of making it, you should kick the field goal. In 2015, all 34 statistically qualifying quarterbacks averaged greater than 6.0 yards per pass attempt, and of those 14 of these quarterbacks completed passes at a rate greater than 63.7366% - Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater, Alex Smith, Sam Bradford, Tom Brady, Joe Flacco, and Jay Cutler. So if you go for it with a passing with one of these 14 quarterbacks under center, your P(1stDown) is necessarily greater than the break-even point, meaning that mathematically it is correct to go for it. Further, not included in those are two more who average greater than 7 yards per pass attempt and greater than 63.7366% completion percentage for their careers - Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo, giving you fully half the league which should go for it in this situation rather than kick a field goal on the strength of quarterback play alone, based on the simple math of "I have at least this percentage chance to gain five yards or more". If simple math isn't good enough for you and you want to use the same proportional math to calculate proportional yards each quarterback will move you forward, you have to switch over yards-per-completion. You do this so you don't double-count the negative result of an incompletion going zero yards (yards per attempt is yards / attempts, which necessarily factors in incompletions and interceptions). So our formula for this is yardsPerCompletion * completionPercentage + 0 * (1 - completionPercentage) = proportionalYardsPerCompletion When you do this math using career yards per completion and completion percentages for all active quarterbacks, every single such qualifying active quarterback - from superstars such as Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady to more marginal talents such as Matt Cassel and Mark Sanchez - posts a proportional yards per completion value greater than 6.0 yards. In conclusion: go for it, and call a pass play. EDIT: I should note that in calculating the WP for the "made field goal + touchback" scenario, I spotted the ball at the 20-yard line following the touchback. With the new NFL rules placing the ball on the 25 yard line, your WP is instead 99.81%, which will reduce the break-even point and result in more quarterbacks qualifying as good enough to justify the "go for it" decision. EDIT 2: for completeness - if you punt and down the ball on the 1-yard line, your WP is 98.7%. Let's call a failure a touchback which puts the ball on the 20-yard line following punts - this puts your WP at 97.02%. If your punt team can down the ball on the 1-yard line at an 84.7% clip, you can match the break-even rate of the field goal scenario. It gets more complicated than that depending on what you call a success for a punt, but generally speaking I'd guess it's the worst decision to make in this scenario, compared to going for it or the field goal attempt.

Your calculation for completing the pass is based on general passing stats and not situational passing stats. The defense knows you have one chance, and they know you have to pick up 6 yards, and they know you have to pass to pick up those yards. That probably lowers the success rate.


Edited to add: of course we are talking about Madden, in which money plays exist and pass rush is virtually non -existant. If this were real football I would point out the situation matters, as does the roster. But it's Madden so...

Case in point:

Quote: Originally Posted by NDAlum

HB toss and run the length of the field for a safety while zig zagging all the way.

[fballturkey]

Thinking about it further I think the FG is the worst decision. 30 yards isn't a gimme and it could end up blocked, which sets up the possibility of a return for a touchdown. The right routes called on a pass play greatly reduce the chances of an INT, or especially an INT returned for a touchdown. I wouldn't be comfortable with a run play when every defender is going to be playing a 'can't give up 5' defense, but a pass where the QB just goes down if the pressure starts to come is probably the best bet.

If there were 45 seconds left I think it'd be different and the chance for 3 points would mean a lot more.

[CM Hooe]

Quote: Originally Posted by ForUntoOblivionSoar∞

Your calculation for completing the pass is based on general passing stats and not situational passing stats. The defense knows you have one chance, and they know you have to pick up 6 yards, and they know you have to pass to pick up those yards. That probably lowers the success rate.

Already addressed that - the math is just fine. Just because you know I am passing - which you don't on defense - doesn't mean you know what pass concept I am running or that you will stop it. For example, if you call Cover 2 to squat at the five yard distance while I call a Smash, Four Verts, or some other concept which specifically manipulates Cover 2, I'm going to have a guy open and whether I get a first down is solely dependent on whether I execute.

I also don't have to throw a five-yard pass (not six) to get the five yards I need for a first down. My receivers can still run after the catch - for example if I call a bubble screen - and I also have the option to throw for more than five yards.

As to situational stats - I spot checked two quarterbacks, Tony Romo and Ryan Tannehill. You tell me which stats are most appropriate - 4th down passing stats, 4-6 yard passing stats, or 4th down and 4-6 yards to go passing stats - and my math still works out in my favor as long as I have a good quarterback. Romo's proportional yards per completion with any of the stat splits is greater than 5.0 yards in all three of these cases, Tannehill's do not.

The prevailing wisdom in this thread and in football circles is a classic case of the psychology of loss aversion - people are psychologically wired to favor avoiding losing something as opposed to gaining something, even when the latter is obviously an economically and mathematically better decision.

[The JareBear]

Wow.

This went next level.

I kick the field goal. Every single time. I don't think anyone can tell me I'm right or wrong. I think a lot of NFL coaches do the same thing. I'm sure there are a lot of NFL coaches who go for it, too.

Different people have different philosophies, different approaches to calling a football game. I've seen the situation play out each way in real life, other than kneeling (not sure why that was an option).

[mrprice33]

Quote: Originally Posted by The JareBear

Wow. This went next level. I kick the field goal. Every single time. I don't think anyone can tell me I'm right or wrong. I think a lot of NFL coaches do the same thing. I'm sure there are a lot of NFL coaches who go for it, too. Different people have different philosophies, different approaches to calling a football game. I've seen the situation play out each way in real life, other than kneeling (not sure why that was an option).

Kneeling is theoretically the absolute zero-risk option. You lose a yard of field position in exchange for a couple of seconds, but no chance of missed field goal, blocked field goal, or a blocked punt.