Unrealistic with speed drops in CFM

[SilverBullet19]

I have to agree here, especially defensively. Scandrick became unplayable even at nickel, because by 32 his speed had dropped down to below 80! Sean Lee is 32, his speed has gone from 89 down to 83 already.

Its horrendously unrealistic how quickly they drop. I'm seeing -4 speed in many cases per year, even with a world class trainer.

[kt-od]

Yes. I will agree it's so unrealistic. What sucks too is you got these guys with high contracts from signing this year. By year 3 you have to either bench them or take the CAP hit because they are unplayable.

[SilverBullet19]

Quote: Originally Posted by ajra21

actually, this is not accurate at all. sorry. it's been proven that when it comes to speed & acceleration, players peak in the very early twenties, declining around 24/25yo. sprinters overcome this decline through rigorous training that NFL player to not partake in. for the vast majority of NFL players, their latest sprint times will come during draft season. in general terms, players peak (physically) around 25-27yo in most sports. they maintain their performance by understanding and developing their awareness of how to play the sport they play. guys likes green and young were insane (speed) athletes at their positions. young is on record saying he he was no longer overly fast by the time he was starting for the niners. instead, he learnt angles, jukes etc that enabled him to run past opponents. only last week on KNBR radio he mentioned knowing he was struggling to run around guys during his second season as the starting QB. jerry rice got behind D because his route running & cuts were exceptional and he played in an O that was built on route deception. no DB knew where he was going to cut. equally, his downfield behind D threat was never his best skill because he wasn't overly fast. he was very good at quick movements & finding angles that prevented opponents from getting to him. he often beat CB deep with double moves and not speed. the regression in madden is relatively accurate to real life. improve the players' AWR, PRC & INJ high enough and they'll maintain their OVR. however, there should be more diversity on when different positions and players drop off. it's not perfect and because it's so different from what madden players are used to in past games, many believe it's not a fair reflection. our understanding of physical peaks should not be set by previous madden games. edit: moss' post-NFL career 40 time was dubious to say the least. it was hand timed with other factors that should make us raise an eyebrow.

you bring up good points here, but I still have to say its unrealistic. You're 100% right on young and Jerry Rice. I never saw them as speed demons.

A corner dropping to 78 speed by the time he is 32, after leading the NFL in interceptions, is a bit broken. With that speed, even an average WR is 7-10 points faster than him. If a guy lost steps that fast, he would be forced to retire early.

[timhere1970]

Quote: Originally Posted by SilverBullet19

you bring up good points here, but I still have to say its unrealistic. You're 100% right on young and Jerry Rice. I never saw them as speed demons. A corner dropping to 78 speed by the time he is 32, after leading the NFL in interceptions, is a bit broken. With that speed, even an average WR is 7-10 points faster than him. If a guy lost steps that fast, he would be forced to retire early.

That is the problem they don't retire and by year ten in franchise you have to keep yourself from throwing 15 60 yard plus bombs on them. Cover 1 bomb, cover one bomb, they still won't back off, bomb bomb bomb. How about they get released after allowing a receiver to get 500 yards in a game, nope send them back out there next week. Couldn't play corner in high school with 5.05 speed but still can in madden.

[swanklax]

Quote: Originally Posted by SilverBullet19

you bring up good points here, but I still have to say its unrealistic. You're 100% right on young and Jerry Rice. I never saw them as speed demons. A corner dropping to 78 speed by the time he is 32, after leading the NFL in interceptions, is a bit broken. With that speed, even an average WR is 7-10 points faster than him. If a guy lost steps that fast, he would be forced to retire early.

You mean kind of like what happened to Nnamdi Asomugha? He went from one of the best corners of his generation to out of the league by age 32.

The real problem isn't really the speed regression, it is the CPU's inability to understand that an 85 OVR corner with 80 speed is a terrible functional player in live gameplay (ditto for any other position heavily reliant on speed). It's undoubtedly asking too much of EA, but they clearly need to rebuild the CPU logic for personnel decisions to account for these kind of factors.

[timhere1970]

Quote: Originally Posted by swanklax

You mean kind of like what happened to Nnamdi Asomugha? He went from one of the best corners of his generation to out of the league by age 32. The real problem isn't really the speed regression, it is the CPU's inability to understand that an 85 OVR corner with 80 speed is a terrible functional player in live gameplay (ditto for any other position heavily reliant on speed). It's undoubtedly asking too much of EA, but they clearly need to rebuild the CPU logic for personnel decisions to account for these kind of factors.

The problem is in how they calculate overall. Speed makes up 14% of cb overall. So he can still theoretically be in the eighties with a speed of zero. Overall is a value used by the cpu to determine value and depth chart position. What they need is to add in penaltits to the formulas for failure to meet basic physical requirements to play a position so the cpu will not value them highly and they will retire or remain free agents until they do.

[NinersFan49]

This is all compounded by the fact that the XP trait costs start to skyrocket at age 26. The physical decline is combined with the inability to boost the intangibles. This runs counter to the idea that the physical decline is offset by experience providing boosts to the intangibles.

Of course I have my views over how much ratings actually matter, but that's another subject ...

[Kentaurus]

There are many problems with regression in madden. They are probably close to right with players losing spd/agi/acc/str around 29 years old. The real key even with trying to keep the simple linear regression is adding a limit, with a limit of a player losing ~5-10% (based on dev. trait) of their physical attributes over their career would be fine.

For example a 92 speed normal dev (8%) WR would start to lose speed over time. By age 35 or so his minumum speed would be 84 or 85 depending on rounding. A normal dev player shouldn't still be in the league at this point and probably ends up struggling to find a spot earlier. The same player with star dev (5%) would see a minimum speed of 87 or 88 again depending on rounding and could still be useful well into their 30s.

Yes this means players who come in with elite physical attributes may be useful for a very long time. Which represents reality, guys like DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith, Adrian Peterson are still great players with great athletic ability. I'll use DeSean Jackson as an example, lets say he were to come in with 97spd, and is quick dev (I'm not quite sure I'd call him a star dev guy). The quick dev limit would be 7% (-6.79) would mean his lowest speed would be 90. Which is realistic he is old now but still considered fast.