Yeah...it's that time of year again...catchers and pitchers report Friday, and it looks like the roster is set. So, without futher ado, my predicted lineup/rotation/scouting report for the Jays this year:
Note: All Projections do not take chance of injury into account (if you want those, use Pecota
).
Lineup
SS - Russ Adams
2005 Stats (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, OBP) - .256, 8, 63, 11, .325
Adams would have challenged for the Rookie of the Year last season, but fell off the face of the earth late in the year, with his average dropping from .280 in August to .256 by the end of the season. However, Adams possesses the ability to hit the ball in the gaps well, with ocassional home run power, as well as some speed. His defense, especially his throwing, needs some work.
Projected 2006 Stats - .274, 12, 60, 15, .341
LF - Frank Catalanotto
2005 Stats - .301, 8, 59, 0, .367
Catalanotto is known as a "professional hitter," a player who can shine in the right situation, but falter in others. Frank's specialty is hitting right-handers, whom he hit .302 against in the severe majority of his at-bats (388 vs 31 against lefties). Catalanotto is also not a strong defensive player, and is usually replaced in the late innings by Reed Johnson. Once again, the Cat should have a solid year, but his age might start to affect him.
Projected 2006 Stats - .297, 6, 45, 0, .354
CF - Vernon Wells
2005 Stats - .269, 28, 97, 8, .320
Wells was the go-to guy for this team last year, and although he struggled early (.248 OBP in April), he recovered to have a solid year. Wells can hit the long ball, and with some protection behind him, should return to his 2003 numbers. However, don't be surprised if Wells' walks, which have been at around the 50 mark in the past two years, drop by 25% or so with him seeing more fastballs. Once again, Vernon should show off his gold-glove defense in centrefield, and will be one of the most important players on this club down the stretch.
Projected 2006 Stats - .306, 32, 102, 15, .342
3B - Troy Glaus
2005 Stats (ARI) - .258, 37, 97, 4, .363
Glaus is the prototypical power hitter, low average, high strikeouts, but unlike a lot of power hitters who have passed through Toronto, Glaus possesses a high on-base percentage. Troy may have benefitted from playing in a hitter's park (his sluggin percentage was 100 points higher at the BOB), but Glaus can still hit the longball no matter where he plays. He has virutally no speed, and is a poor fielder, but after watching the Jays struggle to score runners last season, he is a welcome addition.
Projected 2006 Stats - .249, 36, 104, 0, .350
1B - Lyle Overbay
2005 Stats (MIL) - .276, 19, 72, 1, .367
Best known to those who play MLB '06 as the "doubles king," Overbay is a player who will be finding those bright, bright Rogers Centre scoreboards quite a bit. Hitting 87 doubles in the last two years, Overbay, who will now hit in the 5-spot instead of the three, should have far more RBI oppourtunities. Overbay has never been much of a power threat, but that may change with the surrounded protection he will now receive in Toronto. Overbay, although not fleet of foot by any standards, can play gold glove defense when he wants too.
Projected 2006 Stats - .289, 17, 83, 2, .375
DH - Shea Hillenbrand
2005 Stats - .291, 18, 82, 5, .343
Hillenbrand, the lone all-star last season for the Blue Jays, avoided those nasty arbitration hearings, and will go to Dunedin with a new contract already worked out. Hillenbrand is a very unique player, a hard-nosed player who can hit lefites very well. Shea is a consistent .290-15-80 type player who is not the stereotypical DH, but will do the job just fine. He will probably see time at first and third. One troubling thing may be his low average with RISP and two outs, something he will face a lot hitting sixth.
Projected 2006 Stats - .278, 16, 78, 3, .329
C - Bengie Molina
2005 Stats (LAA) - .295, 15, 69, 0, .336
Molina is the newest addition to the Blue Jay family, signing a contract last week, and knocking Gregg Zaun right out of a starting position. One thing that Molina brings to the table is power, which is needed in this lineup. However, unlike Zaun, Bengie has virtually no plate discipline, and it should be interesting to see how this contrasts with John Gibbons' approach. Molina is a very solid defender, and calls a good game.
Projected 2006 Stats - .288, 16, 63, 0, .337
2B - Aaron Hill
2005 Stats - .274, 3, 40, 2, .342
Hill started off like Gangbusters in 2005, hitting a blistering .415 in May and .333 in June. He looked to be the next big thing, but slowed down in the stretch. Hill is still a very good player, a true line-drive hitter with a sweet, Paul Molitor-like swing, and can drive the ball to all fields and work the count. He doesn't have anything special power or speed-wise, and if he can do half the job that Orlando Hudson did at second base, then the Jays will be happy.
Projected 2006 Stats - .302, 8, 53, 6, .351
RF - Alex Rios
2005 Stats - .262, 10, 59, 14, .306
An enigma wrapped in a nutshell is the best way to describe Rios. Once the top prospect in the Blue Jays minor league system, Rios is now the biggest question mark on the roster. If he can tap into his potential, then the $150 I spent way back in 2004 to be the first one to jump on the Alex Rios jersey bandwagon will make me look like a genious. If not, then at least it's still a Blue Jay jersey, right? Anyhow, if Rios can get his timing down, he will be something special, and to keep my hopes up, I say he will. Tool wise, he can run like a gazelle (when he wants), and has a gun for an arm. The best athlete on the roster.
2006 Projected Stats - .275, 21, 68, 23, .316
The Bench
C - Gregg Zaun
2005 Stats - .251, 11, 61, 2, .355
Zaun is still a very good catcher, and although he has been removed from his starters job, should still see some playing time. Zaun can hit for power, but is best known for his ability to take pitches and work at-bats. There was one game in Chicago last season where Zaun had 4 straight 10+ pitch at-bats. Also a solid defensive catcher, and might be trade bait (although, there really aren't many needs).
Projected 2006 Stats - .269, 5, 36, 0, .365
CIF - Eric Hinske
2005 Stats - .262, 15, 68, 8, .333
Hinske had a pretty bad year last year, although it was better then the media would want you to think. Eric hit .294 post-all star break, and started to look again like the player he did in his amazing 2002 year. Hinske will become a utility man this year, and may see time in the outfield. However, I see him being a situational pinch hitter, and I think he can flourish in that role.
Projected 2006 Stats - .276, 9, 40, 3, .348
MIF - John McDonald
2005 Stats (TOR/DET) - .277, 0, 16, 6, .326
One of the few players I've seen with a lower slugging percentage then on-base percentage, McDonald will not play much, but rather serve as a late inning replacement for the defensively challenged Russ Adams. McDonald has a bit of speed, and a good glove, but no real hitting ability to speak of.
Projected 2006 Stats - .249, 1, 12, 4, .307
OF - Reed Johnson
2005 Stats - .269, 8, 58, 5, .332
Johnson is a fan favourite in Toronto, and is one of the better fourth outfielders in the game. A true utility player, Johnson can hit for a bit of power, a bit of contact, has a bit of speed, a pretty good arm, and a half-decent glove. In other words, he is truly average (or, if you want to be more harsh-sounding, mediocre). Reed will hit mostly against left-handed pitching again this season, although I'm sure Gibbons will find a way to get him in against the Red Sox, a team he had 15 of his 58 RBI's against.
Projected 2006 Stats - .274, 7, 48, 9, .341
Sometime this week: The Pitching Staff