Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

[Drewski]

Have to say I just simulated a team built around Dwight/CP3 (Magic), with a solid roster all around (Made it to the ECF many, many times. No ring unfortunately), and I also noticed as far as simming that PG stats really suffer. CP3 generally averaged 14-15 points and 6-7 assists per season. And I ran from 2011-2012 all the way through to 2018. Never a year when he was close to even 8 apg.

Is what it is, but no doubt PG's assists are much lower than they should be when simulated.

[ffaacc03]

Quote: Originally Posted by elknavo

Youalreadyknow: Just to clarify I'm talking only about stats from simulated games in season or association mode, NOT actual gameplay. I looked up that spreadsheet and applied the shot and touch tendencies to the entire Nets team. Deron Williams usually averages around 6.5 APG. Those changes seemed to get Deron to around 7 to 7.5 APG. I'm not sure if the touch tendency changes actually affected simmed stats at all, but the shot tendencies did. It's an improvement, but not nearly enough. Another big reason for too few assists is far too many FT's being shot. This is mainly because role players get far too many FTA. Sim a season with the stock roster and you'll find that the lowest FTA team shot around as many FTA as the top FTA team in the NBA- the average team shoots about 500-1000 FTA more than they should, and correspondingly fewer FGA, so fewer assists. This happens not because the foul tendency is too high (fouls are around the correct range) but because Draw Foul tendency is too high for most role players. So, by correcting Draw Foul tendencies and shot tendencies on the Nets, I managed to get Williams to around 8.4 APG. This at least starting to get somewhat reasonable, as it's sort of conceivable that Williams' assists might drop off some in Avery Johnson's slow paced offense. Of course the greatest effect on assists seem to be teammates-- any Mavericks PG will get decent assist numbers. I can't seem to figure out what it is about the mavs teammates that make Kidd get 12 APG while Nash can barely manage 7. I also haven't found any tendency other than shot tendency that actually seems to have a strong effect on assists. And it's not just superstar PG's that lack assists, it's most players and teams. The top assist teams get around the right amount of assists, but the lower assist teams get way too few- around 15/game, while the lowest NBA team last season got 19. Most of the PG's with unrealistically low APG numbers seem to come from these low assist teams. As far as I can tell coach profiles, plabooks and offense ratings have little or no effect on this- player personnel seems to be the main factor. Youalreadyknow, you seem to know a lot about this game's mechanics. If you know what it is that makes high APG possible please tell me- the numbers on that spreadsheet help the issue but double figure APG is still far away for Deron even though he's managed it for 4 consecutive seasons. And I can't seem to get Nash to even hit 8 APG whatever I do, after he led the league.

Elk, did you edited the whole roster ? all teams and players ? ... cause only doing so for 1 or 2 or 5 or 10 teams do not provide the intended result ... if FGs are too few, then all other aspects become too few, like steals, rebounds, assists, blocks ... also, if teams FG%s are low (like they seem to be even after edits) they would also cause fewer assists.

You are right about some of the things mentioned not related to the sim engine, but the things that do, have to be edited for all players and teams in order to see a noticeable effect ... so having a worthy "sim stats roster" (as well as a sim gameplay roster), requires for an extensive (and I mean extensive) editing and testing. I believe that this year, there are flaws within the sim stats engine that wont be entirely overcome by roster edits, thus at this point is just speculation.

Having said that, wait for youalreadyknow work to be done, to see up to what extend has he been able to address such issues, he seems to have studied the game variables and is taking his time (which is a great sign) so we should let him finish so he can then share his findings with us.

[elknavo]

Quote: Originally Posted by Colts18

Touches translated to simmed stats in 2K11. The reason I know is because my Touches (based on usage) always tranferred over to the Metric Stats category of Usage. So I am not sure if this has changed in 2K12, but I know it worked in 2K11. And as far as blocks, that is incorrect. I have seen Dwight average 2.8 blocks in a season during my 2K11 Seasons. Not sure where that information came from.

Just simmed a season with the Clippers, most recent official 2k roster. Blake Griffin (96 Touches tendency) has the following stat line

33.1 MPG
18.7 PPG
1.2 APG
47% FG
62% FT

Same as before, and Blake Griffin's touch tendency is lowered to 0
32.6 MPG
19.1 PPG
1.2 APG
45% FG
67% FT

Note the ridiculously low assists despite decent pass rating and 3.8 APG last year. As with Chris Paul, 2k's sim engine thinks that if you are on the Clippers you are not allowed to get any assists. So yeah, unless Blake Griffin is so good he can put up 19 PPG without touching the ball, this has to prove that the touch tendency means nothing for sim stats.

As for the blocks thing, if you saw Dwight do 2.8 BPG then that is probably the highest simmed season BPG ever recorded since 2k11. Overall though blocks are too low. It's not nearly as horrible as the assists issue where the wrong guy leads the league every year and half the best players in the category do 50% worse than they should, but it's an issue. Guys like Javale McGee block more than 3 shots per 36 minutes, and that is simply flat out impossible in 2k sim stats. And for a laugh try simming a season with the '94 Nuggets and watching Mutombo (4.1 BPG that year, 99 BLK) usually come in under 2 BPG. It's broken. Not as bad as assists, but it's broken.

[elknavo]

Quote: Originally Posted by ffaacc03

Elk, did you edited the whole roster ? all teams and players ? ... cause only doing so for 1 or 2 or 5 or 10 teams do not provide the intended result ... if FGs are too few, then all other aspects become too few, like steals, rebounds, assists, blocks ... also, if teams FG%s are low (like they seem to be even after edits) they would also cause fewer assists. You are right about some of the things mentioned not related to the sim engine, but the things that do, have to be edited for all players and teams in order to see a noticeable effect ... so having a worthy "sim stats roster" (as well as a sim gameplay roster), requires for an extensive (and I mean extensive) editing and testing. I believe that this year, there are flaws within the sim stats engine that wont be entirely overcome by roster edits, thus at this point is just speculation. Having said that, wait for youalreadyknow work to be done, to see up to what extend has he been able to address such issues, he seems to have studied the game variables and is taking his time (which is a great sign) so we should let him finish so he can then share his findings with us.

ffac, I did not edit the whole roster. As I said I edited the Nets and was successful at getting them to approximately the correct amount of field goals made. Even if you do that, they just seem to have ridiculously low numbers of assists, regardless of playbook or coach profile. Editing the rest of the league should not make much of a difference as to the Nets' assists. It's clear that it is possible for teams/players to have high numbers of assists without league-wide edits-- after all, Jason Kidd pulls his career high in APG every single year in 2k's sim engine with default rosters. Michael Conley always does 2 APG more than he ought to. So we know for sure that it is possible- and until I figure out what mechanism actually does control the APG, what point is there to going to the effort of editing the whole league?

What unsolvable issues are there with the sim stats engine? The only one I can identify that is clearly unsolvable is blocked shots, and that one isn't really as bad as the assist thing. Blocked shots have declined in recent years in the real NBA, and nobody's done 4 BPG in a long time. Everything other than assists is, as far as I can tell, pretty accurate or easily editable to be accurate. And I know there's a way to fix the assist issue, which is why I keep racking my brain trying to figure out how.

Youalreadyknow seems to have the secret, but then again he said the key was touches tendency, and I think I just proved that touches tendency has no effect on sim stats at all, so perhaps he doesn't know as much as it seems.

[elknavo]

Quote: Originally Posted by Drewski

Have to say I just simulated a team built around Dwight/CP3 (Magic), with a solid roster all around (Made it to the ECF many, many times. No ring unfortunately), and I also noticed as far as simming that PG stats really suffer. CP3 generally averaged 14-15 points and 6-7 assists per season. And I ran from 2011-2012 all the way through to 2018. Never a year when he was close to even 8 apg. Is what it is, but no doubt PG's assists are much lower than they should be when simulated.

Drewski, this is true but take note that this is only true for some PG's. CP3, Deron Williams, Steve Nash, and Westbrook will always have career low APG. But it's not the case that all PGs will suffer from it. Check out Mike Conley or Jason Kidd- Conley does 2 APG more than his career high, and Kidd leads the league every year with his career high APG while he's nearly 40 years old! ROndo also does just fine with assists.

Trade any of those underperforming PGs to the mavericks or grizzlies and they'll have decent APG. I've ruled out playbooks and coach ratings and coach profiles as the reason- swap the whole roster of the mavs and clippers and you'll still see CP3 with 6.5 APG and Kidd with 11. So there must be something about the ratings of the SG/SF/PF/C of the Mavericks and Grizzlies that enable PGs to get high assist numbers, and something about the ratings of the Clippers/Nets/Thunder/Suns that makes their PGs forget how to pass the ball. If we can figure out what causes this we can fix it.

From my testing the following things help significantly:
1. Draw Foul tendency:
The sim stats engine gives players, especially bench players, way too many FTA. There are a few too many fouls but a huge excess of FTA, so we fix this with the draw foul tendency.

2. Shot Tendency
This works in 2 ways: First, your PG's shot tendency is inversely related to APG. Cut CP3 down to 0 shot tendency, and he goes from 6.5 APG or so to around 10, which would be perfect if it didnt also make him average 2 PPG. Part of why Jason Kidd's assists are too high is that his shot tendency is lower than it should be so he takes about half as many shots as he should. Most star PGs have a shot tendency higher than they should, so this helps some.
Secondly, your temmates' shot tendencies are often ridiculously wrong in the default roster, especially role players. For example DeAndre Jordan will take about 1/3 as many FGA as he did lat season. Correcting these will give the PG more teammates to give assists to.

Using these methods I've managed to get CP3/Deron Williams around 8.4 APG. But there must be other factors I haven't figure out yet- Michael Conley's teammates have decently high shot tendencies and his isn't too high, and the Grizzlies do shoot way too many FTA in the default roster- so why does he overperform his pass rating and stats by so much and get 8.5-9 APG? If we can figure out what it is about the grizzlies, that might be the key.

[qpc123]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think pass rating has a big(or any) effect on assists per game. The 'Pass' rating effects things like accuracy and the ability to throw certain types passes not how often a player passes, but how well they do it(granted better passes will lead to more assists). Shot tendency and attack/pass out will have a greater effect in generating APG IMO.

[elknavo]

simulated season, Mavericks, most recent official 2k roster

Kidd (93 Pass rating) averages 11.3 APG in 33 mpg

Kidd (0 Pass rating) averages 2.1 APG in 33 mpg

You are wrong, so you have been corrected. The Pass rating is one of the primary factors- I just need to figure out the other ones. It can't be attack/pass out because Nash has very high pass out tendency yet has like 40% lower APG in this game than real life.

[youALREADYknow]

Quote: Originally Posted by qpc123

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think pass rating has a big(or any) effect on assists per game. The 'Pass' rating effects things like accuracy and the ability to throw certain types passes not how often a player passes, but how well they do it(granted better passes will lead to more assists). Shot tendency and attack/pass out will have a greater effect in generating APG IMO.

The Pass rating (along with Offensive Awareness) sets the "ceiling" on a player's ability to get assists. The combination of Touches and how those touches are used (Shot Tendency for player and Touches across the rest of the team) determines how close to that ceiling the player gets.