Packers Franchise report

[ebongreen]

Intermittently. I've been sick, and then I was in a motorscooter accident, so I haven't been spending a lot of time playing HC lately.

I did make it though the 2012 offseason (finally) and I'm in the opening weeks of the '12-'13 regular season. At the same time, I'll ask your forgiveness that it's sometimes more fun to play than it is to write about.

I've been toying with some sliders lately too, which has taken up time I'd otherwise spend playing. Please be patient with me - I'll get back to it. I've got at least ten seasons of English path yet to make draft sheets for, after all.

[ebongreen]

Coaching & Front Office Changes:

• GM Gary Meese for GM Tom Tedson. Meese has a higher ceiling and can probably go all the way to 99; Tedson was maxed out in the low 70s.
• STC Tom Quinn for STC Mike Stock. Again, Stock was maxed out; Quinn can go higher.

Pre-Draft Cuts:

• MLB Nick Barnett - signed by Redskins. Old at 30, and a very expensive backup.

Free Agents Signed:

• Patriots ROLB Keith Rivers (7 yrs, $65mil, $30mil bonus). I may come to regret this one. It's a very expensive signing, and it may mean I can't sign someone else I'd like to keep later on.

Free Agents Lost:

• LE Aaron Kampman - Rams
• MLB Philip Wheeler - Jaguars
• LOLB Xavier Adibi - Jaguars
• DT [2010 Alabama] - wound up on Colts

RFAs Retained:

• QB Jake Scott
• HB LeRon James
• FB Casey Barone
• WR Jamarion Bellows
• RG Patrick Boma
• DT Patrick Lopez
• LOLB Dexter Knox

RFAs Lost:

• FS Prince Justin - Bills for 2012 3rd. I got good enough value for him, and he was a backup last year to Egypt Jones. I can find younger & cheaper players to be backups.

Pre-draft Trades:

• K Crosby to Bills for 2012 3rd (#68). I decided to go for a younger cheaper kicker with a high upside, namely K [Tulsa].
• WR [2010 Stanford], 2012 4th (#128), and 2012 5th (#160) to Bills for WR DJ Crosby. Crosby is a 6'4" possession (CIT 88) receiver, former 1st rounder. He's slotted in as my #3 WR.
• LT [2010 Tulane], QB Jacob Green, and 2012 6th (#162) for WR Nate Jameel. Jameel is 6'3" elite WR from 2011, coming in as my #2 WR. Under contract for 4 years @ $5+mil/yr.
• DT Devin Gilbert and 2012 5th (#135) to Chiefs for DT Julian Wilson. Wilson is a lot like Patrick Lopez: short, strong, smart, quick, and easy to re-sign (Optimist personality - Lopez is Guru). I expect the two of them to man the middle for a while, unless something better comes along.

Draft Day Trades involving players:

• FS [2011 Navy] to Falcons for 2012 3rd (#73)

Players Drafted (who made the '12-'13 opening day roster):

• 2nd (#55): ROLB Tevin Brew. Now backup to Keith Rivers; AJ Hawk (re-signed last year) has been moved to MLB to backstop Alonzi Simms.
• 2nd (#63): QB Markell Martinez
• 3rd (#71): LOLB [Wyoming]
• 3rd (#83): DT [Tennessee]. Gotta love the Vols DTs in the English path.
• 4th (#103): HB [E. Kentucky]
• 4th (#110): CB [California]
• 4th (#122): QB [Rutgers]
• 4th (#125): K [Tulsa]
• 5th (#142): LE [UNLV]
• 6th (#173): LG [Buffalo]
• 6th (#183): FS [Buffalo]
• 6th (#186): RE [Nevada]
• 6th (#192): CB [Wyoming]
• 7th: SS [Western Michigan]
• 7th: MLB [VMI]
• 7th: CB [Eastern Michigan]

"Named" Players Drafted, Pick & Team:

• DT Martellus Battle - #2, Texans
• QB Shawn Bagley - #4, Bills
• HB Luke Jones - #5, Lions *snicker snicker*
• ROLB Josh Bench - #6, 49ers
• QB Marcus Morris - #7, Dolphins
• MLB Tack Adams - #10, Chargers
• LOLB Jeremy Horne - #11, Redskins - I thought about making a play for him, but I have Dexter Knox already and I don't always run a 3-4. He'd be great in that system.
• DT Earl Whitaker - #15, Bengals
• LE Diamond Williams - #17, Vikings *ha ha!*
• SS Jamie Nelson - #20, 49ers
• SS Marcus Wayns - 4th rd, Jaguars (who already have Will Barkley). I opted not to draft Wayns because I have JJ Collins and SS [W. Michigan] was available later on.

Post-Draft Trades:

• WR Jamarion Bellows to Browns for 2013 2nd. If I were going to draft Bellows again, I'd use him differently than I did with this playbook. He'd probably be much better at drags, crosses & slants - traditional West Coast fare - where he's less likely to be hammered upon catching (CIT 81 max). Other options would be digs (deep ins), deep hitches, or deep outs from the slot. High CIT scores make a major difference in drops in this game, and on that score he's a true #1 receiver like Jamelle Lucas or Nate Jameel. (Example: In my latest game this season vs. the Jags, Lucas was double-covered and got hammered in the endzone by Rashean Mathis and Will Barkley - and came down with the ball to score. Bellows doesn't do that. )
• SS [2010 Illinois] to Titans for 2013 4th & 2014 7th. Backup - made way for [2012 W. Michigan] behind JJ Collins.
• LE [2011 UNLV] to Texans for 2013 2nd & 6th. Backup - made way for [2012 UNLV] behind Kibo Bakari.
• MLB [2011 VMI] to Saints for 2013 7th & 2014 6th

Pre-season Cuts of Note:

• CB Nnamdi Asomugha. I tried to trade him all during the preseason, but nobody bit. He's 30 and in his final year of a contract; essentially I traded paying him for paying a 26-year-old Keith Rivers.

[cloudedskate]

I have the same problems with Bellows. The amount of balls he dropped frustrated me to the point where I traded him to the Texans for 2 1st round picks. Of course he is leading the league in pretty much every receiving stat known to man now.

Luke Jones also went 5th in mine too, but it was the Browns who picked him. Next year as I was looking through the free agent running backs, I see him there. Cutting him was probably the smartest move by the Browns I've ever seen.

[ebongreen]

I'm going to log the contract expectations of my players as part of this franchise; it should give me and you a general idea of what positions are the most expensive and whether it's worth paying the premium for certain players. With approximately 50 players on your roster, I'll need to plan for each player using a little less than 2% of my cap, so every mega-buck contract a player signs means I'll have do use cheap draft picks to for backups.

I'll be giving the initial low-end offer as the benchmark, and dividing that by the salary cap as a whole to get a Cap Used percentage. Since the money in contracts escalates every year, I'm going to generally round percentages down to estimate the % Cap Used. All OVRs listed are from Balanced philosophy.

'12-'13 Salary Cap: $126.79M

*

RG Patrick Boma (OVR 95, Guru): $51.18M/7 Yrs, $30M Bonus

Average $7.31M/yr. $6.5M first year = ~ 5% Cap Used.

Decision tree: I value my offensive line highly. At the same time, in this game the RG is your most important interior pass-blocker, followed by the C and last at LG; at the same time, the game is designed to have you run inside left (at the lesser DT in a 4-3 or MLB in a 3-4), so LG should be your best run-blocker. Pass-blocking is not Patrick's forte, so when I re-sign Patrick, I'm going to flip-flop him to the starting LG position.
Conclusion: As possibly the most devastating run-blocker in the game , re-signing him at this price is pretty much a no-brainer.

*

RE Chris Long (OVR 94, Anchor): $76.18M/7 Yrs, $40M Bonus

Average $10.88M/yr. ~$9.7M first year = ~ 7.6% Cap Used.

Decision Tree: In the real NFL, RE in a 4-3 is a glamour position (see: Allen, Jared; Freeney, Dwight; etc). In my experience in HC, REs are not sack machines. I get many more sacks from my LE & LOLB than my RE due to the C & LG swinging left to help block blind-side. Due to my development efforts of last year (switching him to LE for a while), he's now due for a massive and probably-unaffordable-to-me payday. (He is making $6.7M right now.) I tried trading him this week for a lesser RE, but no-one's biting.
I mismanaged my RE position. I should have either re-signed Calais Campbell (who was adequate and topped out at OVR 89) or left Long alone at the RE position and not developed him as quickly. In the off-season, I'm going to need a replacement RE.
Conclusion: I traded him to the Cowboys (ugh) for a 2013 2nd & 2014 5th round picks. LE [UNLV 2012] (Bal OVR 84) is now my starting RE, and I signed a street FA as my fourth DE.

*

QB Jake Scott (OVR 92, Ally): $67.4M/6 Yrs, $32M Bonus

Average $11.23M/yr. ~$10M first year = ~ 7.9% Cap Used.

Decision Tree: In a football sim dominated by the passing game, I gotta have a good QB. Good QBs cost money. Even with the very promising backups I drafted this year, Scott is a talent.
Conclusion: I'm going to do my best to sign him with as few incentives as possible, because the way I play he's likely to earn every one every year.

*

HB LeRon James (OVR 92, Guru): $48.84/6 Yrs, $10M Bonus

Average $8.14M/yr. $6.7M first year = ~ 5.3% Cap Used.

Decision Tree: I could be a cheap and cheezy b@$tard and use JR Myers as my ultra-cheap primary HB, but I won't. (I'll use him as my relatively cheap backup HB.) Good HBs cost money too, and I doubt I'll find one as good for as little money.
Conclusion: He took the base offer, so I'm good at HB for a few years.

*

MLB Alonzi Simms (OVR 91, Commander): $27.26M/6 Yrs, $5M Bonus

Average $4.54M/yr. ~$3.8M first year = ~ 3% Cap Used.

Decision Tree: That's dirt cheap for an OVR 90+ player, and easy to offset with a draft-pick backup. Sign me up!
Conclusion: Signing him to the minimum may be more difficult, but I'm pretty sure we can come to some agreement.

*

LOLB Dexter Knox (OVR 89, Commander): $32.60/6 Yrs, $6M Bonus

Average $5.43/yr. ~$4.6M first year = ~ 3.6% Cap Used.

Decision Tree: He's a pass-rushing threat (though in this game, most LOLBs are). As a starting linebacker, that's a very reasonable salary. I'm a little surprised that as a lower-rated 'backer, he's requesting more than Simms.
Conclusion: Again, we'll probably meet somewhere in the middle, with a higher-than-base bonus.

*

FB Casey Barone (OVR 89, Ambassador): $2M/2 Yrs, $500K Bonus

Average $1M/yr. ~$900K first year = ~ <1% Cap Used.

Decision Tree: Easy re-signing decision for the run-game and as an outlet receiver on play-action. There's a fullback coming up in next year's draft who might be interesting, but that's for later.
Conclusion: I'll work on signing him.

*

DT Patrick Lopez (OVR 89, Guru): $34.46M/6 Yrs, $6M Bonus

Average $5.74M/yr. $4.7M first year = ~ 3.7% Cap Used.

Decision Tree: Patrick Lopez is basically a tiny, even-tempered version of Albert Haynesworth. He's had some issues staying healthy for me, but he's a heck of a player and comes relatively cheap. He'll spend this year behind Julian Wilson in hopes that he becomes healthy again with a little less work.
Conclusion: Signed him with offer #4 - two incentives. 10 sacks = $1M, 50 tackles = $1M. He's never come close to earning either of those (max sacks/yr=4, max tackles/yr=29), so I think that's a pretty safe contract.

[ebongreen]

Quote: Originally Posted by cloudedskate

Are you going to post like you did with the Packers franchise? I enjoyed that a lot.

I appreciate the kind thoughts and encouragement, 'skate. I haven't decided if/when to resume this particular train.

It's not exactly a dynasty, and not exactly not, so I've never been quite sure where those sorts of thoughts should go. For me, it is/was a way to talk about my experiences as a GM and coach in a regular format, in hopes that others could learn from both my successes and mistakes.

I'm working English path again, so drafting isn't exactly hard. I think I've said what I want to say on that topic.

Things I'd like to see, and plan to post about either in this thread or others: player reviews and contract-demand analysis. I think that player reviews ("I drafted/traded for X, this is his stat-line using these sliders over this term, these are his strengths and weaknesses and favorite plays") would be better suited in draft guide threads than this one. I don't know where contract-demand analysis would be best suited, or if it's interesting to anyone other than me.

What's interesting to you, forum members? Is this a project you'd like to see continued or discontinued, moved, modified or scrapped? I'm open to further feedback.