4th & 1 Discussion

[gopher_guy]

Yeah, this is hard to do without the numbers, since everyone is just guessing.

An article on NFL.com I found after a quick Google says the conversion rate is 72%

If I'm confident in my defense, I think an almost 3/4 chance in my favor is a pretty solid gamble to keep the ball.

[wwharton]

Quote: Originally Posted by gopher_guy

Yeah, this is hard to do without the numbers, since everyone is just guessing. An article on NFL.com I found after a quick Google says the conversion rate is 72% If I'm confident in my defense, I think an almost 3/4 chance in my favor is a pretty solid gamble to keep the ball.

Is that for all 4th down calls? All 4th and 1 calls? Where on the field? What's the score? Etc, etc. Those numbers can't mean anything without context. And honestly, "confident in my defense" requires context too.

[gopher_guy]

Quote: Originally Posted by wwharton

Is that for all 4th down calls? All 4th and 1 calls? Where on the field? What's the score? Etc, etc. Those numbers can't mean anything without context. And honestly, "confident in my defense" requires context too.

4th and 1, 72% conversion rate. Article was from 2008.

I don't know what other context to add to being confident in my defense. If my defense is getting consistently shredded by the offense, I'd probably think twice, and play the field position game, but if I think there's a realistic chance we can hold them to a 3 and out, or maybe just one first down so they'll be attempting a long FG, I'm probably more likely to go for it on 4th and 1.

[wwharton]

Quote: Originally Posted by gopher_guy

4th and 1, 72% conversion rate. Article was from 2008. I don't know what other context to add to being confident in my defense. If my defense is getting consistently shredded by the offense, I'd probably think twice, and play the field position game, but if I think there's a realistic chance we can hold them to a 3 and out, or maybe just one first down so they'll be attempting a long FG, I'm probably more likely to go for it on 4th and 1.

Honestly I didn't expect you to be able to come up with all the possibilities which is what I'm trying to say. Within that 72% how many were around the 50 vs in the red zone? How many were within the last 2 minutes of a losing game? There are too many variables to sum all 4th and 1 situations up in one statistic.

I won't argue that there are some 4th and 1 situations that make sense to go for but coaches don't, but there are so many variables involved that I don't think are being considered with the thought that coaches should go for it "a lot" more than they currently do.

[gopher_guy]

Yeah I really don't care about it enough to delve into it like that, haha.

I'll just leave it at: I think coaches are too conservative, as a rule, but I understand the reasons why they would be timid to go for it, eespecially in the talk radio and twitter culture that NFL coaches have to live with. 4th and 1 fails to convert, other team marches down for a TD: wow, what an idiot, cost us the game. 4th and 1 works, they score a crucial TD: wow, brilliant move, won us the game!

[darkknightrises]

I do think teams should go for it a lot more why? Because most of the time if you run the ball no matter if it is first down second down or 3erd down or even 4th down you can get at least a yard. I would say probly like 80% of the time you run the ball you are going to get a yard or more. So if teams where to go for it on 4th down and 1 you would get the first down.

[TDenverFan]

Quote: Originally Posted by wwharton

I said this when we were talking about it in the Off Topic thread so it's interesting that you bring up video games. It's been a while but I remember playing the "go for it on 4th and short all the time" people. The experience often ended with me putting up lots of point quickly and them pulling the plug on the game before halftime. It's like doubling down on a bet over and over. You can pull all the odds you want, but they can't account for the levels of consequences during the times it doesn't work. EXTREME example here but lets say it's 4th and inches on your own 5 yard line. Even if it's successful 99% of the time, in that situation being in the 1% would be devastating. Again, that's an extreme example, but adjusting any number of variables to a "baseline" that will surely be different based on the team, opponent, score, etc, etc... very long list before we even get to coaching tendencies alone.

Really wouldn't be devastating to fail from the 5. You lose out on a FG, but the opponent has to go 95 yards

[kehlis]

Quote: Originally Posted by TDenverFan

Really wouldn't be devastating to fail from the 5. You lose out on a FG, but the opponent has to go 95 yards

It's a 112 yard field goal from your own 5....