4th & 1 Discussion

[wwharton]

Quote: Originally Posted by Cardot

Isn't the whole 4th and one conversation all about conservative vs aggressive? Doesn't seem like that much of a stretch to me, but I will concede the point none the less. Back to Louisville. The first 4th down call.....I still like. 13 minutes left in the 1st quarter. If you fail, you still pin them deep.

Taking the not so big leap that we disagree on the topic at hand (lumping Kehlis in with me) I don't think anyone feels that was a bad call.

[dsallupinyaarea]

Here's one that's interesting to talk about and has some grey area:

Last night. 4th and goal at NO 14, 12 minutes left. Game 21-7. Ron Rivera kicks a FG. What does a FG accomplish there? You're in a two possession game and you just made it a slightly smaller two possession game (that now requires a 2 pt conversion). What has a higher likelihood of happening, the Panthers gaining 14 yards on 1 play or the Panthers driving the entire length of the field twice in 12 minutes while stopping Drew Brees twice? Even if the Panthers fail, you at least have the Saints pinned deep. You have outs.

I don't think Rivera considered any of this. I think he just saw he was in FG range and wanted some points on the board to make the game look closer than it actually was. He kicked the can down the road. Pushed the difficult decision off when, in actuality, that was probably his best chance to put 7 on the board last night.

[kehlis]

Quote: Originally Posted by dsallupinyaarea

Here's one that's interesting to talk about and has some grey area: Last night. 4th and goal at NO 14, 12 minutes left. Game 21-7. Ron Rivera kicks a FG. What does a FG accomplish there? You're in a two possession game and you just made it a slightly smaller two possession game (that now requires a 2 pt conversion). What has a higher likelihood of happening, the Panthers gaining 14 yards on 1 play or the Panthers driving the entire length of the field twice in 12 minutes while stopping Drew Brees? Even if the Panthers fail, you at least have the Saints pinned deep. You have outs. I don't think Rivera considered any of this. I think he just saw he was in FG range and wanted some points on the board to make the game look closer than it actually was. He kicked the can down the road. Pushed the difficult decision off when, in actuality, that was probably his best chance to put 7 on the board last night.

Sometimes you have to think about the other team scoring as well though.

You go for it there and don't convert a low percentage play all the Saints need to do from there is go down and kick a field goal to make it a three score game.

Make it an 11 point game and you at least give the wiggle room to your defense to hold them to a field goal and still be in it.

[dsallupinyaarea]

I agree. If you don't get it, the game is basically over if your defense doesn't get an immediate 3 & out. I just don't think, at the time of that play, that he would ever see a better chance to come back and win the game. He basically elected to bleed slow and leave himself no chance of escape.

[ImTellinTim]

Long 4th and goals are so hard to convert though. The defense knows exactly where you have to throw the ball. Unless you think you can set up a screen perfectly, it's endzone or bust.

With that much time left I like kicking the field goal from the 14.

[wwharton]

Quote: Originally Posted by dsallupinyaarea

Here's one that's interesting to talk about and has some grey area: Last night. 4th and goal at NO 14, 12 minutes left. Game 21-7. Ron Rivera kicks a FG. What does a FG accomplish there? You're in a two possession game and you just made it a slightly smaller two possession game (that now requires a 2 pt conversion). What has a higher likelihood of happening, the Panthers gaining 14 yards on 1 play or the Panthers driving the entire length of the field twice in 12 minutes while stopping Drew Brees twice? Even if the Panthers fail, you at least have the Saints pinned deep. You have outs. I don't think Rivera considered any of this. I think he just saw he was in FG range and wanted some points on the board to make the game look closer than it actually was. He kicked the can down the road. Pushed the difficult decision off when, in actuality, that was probably his best chance to put 7 on the board last night.

I just don't think it's fair to say what Rivera was thinking there. You just got two good posts on this (you liked them both so I think you agree they were good), but still stick with the conclusion that Rivera didn't think it through... with absolutely no way of knowing. I'm not giving him the credit to say he did but also not going to just assume he didn't... especially since I think it was the right call.

In addition to what was already posted, that was actually a 1st and goal at the 6? The crappy oline and Cam, throwing high all night, turned that into a 4th and 14. Under those circumstances, there is no way in hell I'm going to think my offense can convert a 4th and 14. However the defense, who really shut the Saints out in the 1st half (fumble recovery inside the 5 is an assumed TD) deserves a chance to try to hold them.

[dsallupinyaarea]

Just to clarify, neither options were actually good.

Given the Panthers inability to move the ball (I wasn't really watching but they had 7 pts in the 4Q so I'm making the assumption) and given the quality of QB on the other sideline, I just think you have to take your chances in that spot. Especially considering how much there is to gain by getting 7 there.

[ProfessaPackMan]

In that situation being described, I'm taking the points every time.