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NBA 2K9 Predicts the 2008 Season

Recently, my fellow OS Staff writer Bryan Estrella posted a great article discussing the pros and cons of NBA 2K9’s Association 2.0. Bryan simulated 15 seasons, and was looking at how the CPU ran a self-sustained franchise. He was also kind enough to include some of the information from his simulation:

"In 2014-15, J.R. Smith set a new record for 3-pointers made in a single season, sinking an incredible 393 buckets from downtown. He also holds the record for most 3-pointers made in a career (4,530). And for those interested, going into the 2022-23 season, LeBron is the league’s all-time leading scorer amassing an incredible 45,035 points. Also, the 2K9 cover athlete Kevin Garnett holds the record for most games played, suiting up for 1,736 games."

All of those stats are great and once again bravo to Bryan for simulating 15 seasons. However, I can hear some of you asking, "what about this season?" I’m glad you asked because I have all the answers.

I took it upon myself to run a simulation of the 2008-2009 campaign. But, just about anyone can simulate a season once, so I thought that would have been the easy way out. Instead what I did was simulate the 2008-2009 season a total of 10 times (what can I say, I am just five simulated seasons less cool than Bryan). I then took a look at amount of times a player won an award or led the league in a certain stat, and logged every time a team made the playoffs, won a championship, or failed at life. The results are as follows:

Actually, before the results that follow, I just want to take a second and say that there has been some debate on our forums when it comes to scores and stats while simulating with 12 minutes quarters. The argument is that the scores and stats are too high. I did a few sample simulations and compared them with the actual NBA statistics from the REAL NBA.com (not the one in the 2K9). In real life, last year the Golden State Warriors led the league with 111.03 points per game. The Miami Heat were last in the category with 91.35 ppg, and the average was just around 97.

In 2K9 with 12 minute quarters, the average for teams is around 110 ppg, with the highest being in the 120-plus range. This is clearly too high. However, with 11 minute quarters the results are slightly lower than the real-life counterpart, with the league leaders scoring around 107 ppg. I also would like to take a second and say that while 12 minute quarters were too high in the points department, they were perfect when it came to rebound average (41.80 rpg in real life last season) and assists (median of 21.31). Just to be fair, for my simulation I did half of the seasons with 12 minute quarters and the other half with 11. Now on to those results I discussed earlier. First, the individual awards:

MVP: (All hail King James) In five of my simulations, LeBron James was the league’s MVP. Kobe came in first place in two of the 10 seasons. There were three other winners, so you math majors can tell that each player won one award. Kevin Garnett came on strong during one simulation with 20.9 ppg, 10.4 rpg, and 4.5 apg. D-Wade was another winner, and in the most head-shaking MVP vote of all time, Pau Gasol won the MVP averaging 17 ppg and 7.8 rebounds. After making sure that was actually correct, I realized he received the award because he led the Lakers to a number one seed in the Western Conference, despite Kobe being out for just over three months.

Rookie of the Year: (UCLA Fight Fight Fight!) This one was not even close. Kevin Love of the Minnesota Timberwolves won the ROY award in seven of the 10 seasons. Point guard Russell Westbrook from Oklahoma City was willing to win the two when Love didn’t feel like getting a clean sweep, and O.J. Mayo won one award -- it was Pac-10 all the way. O.J. Mayo fans should not despair too much considering that in addition to his one ROY award, he was also able to grab one…

Sixth Man of the Year Award: As stated above, Mayo, the Memphis Grizzlies combo guard, was one of the winners of this award. Other winners included Andre Miller of the 76ers, and Beno Udrih of the Sacramento Kings? All of the players listed above were only able to notch one award, and all pale in comparison to the Orlando Magic’s Rashard Lewis, who matched Kevin Loves award total with seven. Lewis averaged over 20 ppg coming off the bench. (Yes, I do realize that this is odd).

Defensive Player of the Year: By far, this was the easiest award to guess correctly. Ask any common basketball fan who should win this award this year and the split will be about a 60-40 split of people taking Dwight Howard (people love blocks) over KG -- ratios get slightly higher or lower depending on how close you get to Orlando and Boston respectively. NBA 2K9 sees it the exact same way, with Howard winning the award six times and KG taking home the prize four times.

With the individual awards out of the way, time to look at the team projections.

There were four Western Conference teams that made the playoffs in each of the 10 seasons, and three from the Eastern Conference. Looking over the list I think we will all agree that these teams are definite locks for the playoffs this year in real life. Out of the West we have the Lakers, Hornets, Spurs and Rockets; from the East we have the Pistons, Magic and Celtics. Despite not making the playoffs in every simulation, the Cleveland Cavaliers, Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks (Governor Sarah Palin and Senator John McCain’s favorite team) still made the playoffs more than any other team not listed above. The Cavs were able to play in the second season a total of 8-10 years. The Cavs were followed closely by the Atlanta Hawks, who finished in the top eight in the East a total of seven times.

The Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns, L.A. Clippers and the Utah Jazz all made the playoffs more than half of the time in the West, while the Philadelphia 76ers were the only team to make it over 50 percent of the time in the East. Checking in during exactly half of the time, we have the Chicago Bulls, Toronto Raptors and the Portland Trailblazers.

All told, in the Western Conference there were 12 teams that made the playoffs during the 10 year simulation. In the East we had 13 teams make it into the playoffs. But while that information is all well and good, I think we all really want to know who failed at life?

Out of the West, the Sacramento Kings, the Memphis Grizzlies and the Oklahoma City Thunder were competing in the NBA Draft Lottery in each of the seasons I simulated. The same is true for the Charlotte Bobcats and the Milwaukee Bucks.

I have covered everything that someone looking for a season simulation could ask for. All the individual awards have been given out; I have told you about the playoff teams and lottery teams; and now all we need to do is crown the 2008-2009 NBA Champions.

In seven out of 10 seasons I simulated, a different team was able to take the crown. These teams included some of the usual suspects: Celtics, Spurs, Lakers, Pistons (each of those teams has won a title in the last six years). Also, the Cleveland Cavaliers won one title. I was very surprised to see the Miami Heat win one of the 10. I realize the squad won the Championship just three seasons ago, and with Michael Beasley, D-Wade and Shawn Marion the Heat will be much improved, but after last season it's a stretch to think that the team can win it all. I was also surprised when the Utah Jazz won an NBA title. Then there are the New Orleans Hornets.

Led by All-NBA point guard Chris Paul (who won Finals MVP each time), the Hornets were able to win the title three of the 10 seasons. For those interested, the Hornets played the Cavs twice and the Heat once in the NBA Finals. The Hornets also made it to the finals an additional two times, losing once to the Cavs and once to the Pistons. With a total of five trips to the finals -- more than any other team (the Cavs and Heat came in second with three out of ten, and the Spurs, Lakers, and Pistons made it twice).

It looks like NBA 2K9 has decided that the New Orleans Hornets are the team to beat in 2008-09.


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Member Comments
# 1 Nodima @ 10/28/08 01:45 PM
My one simmed Asociation was interesting - 76ers beat Celtics in 6 to go to the championship round against the Rockets, and Ron Artest was out the entire playoffs for a strained abdomen. But despite the injury the Rockets whipped the floor with the Sixers in 4 games as the city of Houston breathed a massive sigh of relief.
 
# 2 chipper @ 10/28/08 01:48 PM
I really like the part where gasol won the MVP for leading his team to the best record despite a loss of kobe. People look at stats (and even overall ratings) only but it's really nice to see somthing like that.
 
# 3 PaulZweber @ 10/28/08 02:13 PM
Yeah, this looks more realistic than the NBA Live one done. Bobcats in lottery in 2k, in playoffs in Live. I also love the fact that they gave the award to Gausol, if he can carry a Kobe-less Lakers for 3 months he would deserve it.
 
# 4 qpc123 @ 10/28/08 02:46 PM
i did several sims last night to work out ratings for edited rookies and Detroit played the lakers 5 times in a row with LA winning 3 and detroit winning 2. i also saw miami beat houston and indiana??? beat New Orleans, the pacers must pulled off some deals or something i forgot to check, but Granger was the finals mvp i think
 
# 5 Intelx @ 10/28/08 02:50 PM
YES!!!!

An NBA season prediction based off rediculous back door cuts and inflated Points in the paint......

Viable source if I don't say so myself.

Intelx
 
# 6 Peninc @ 10/28/08 05:01 PM
NOH?? ...Kobe aint havin that
 

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