The Rise

[Iron Dragon]

OFFSEASON PLAYER IMPROVEMENT REPORT

With the custom regression/progression system, our training isn't quite as straight forward as it is normally. First, here are the position changes:

Cole Macek: FB to MLB
Bryce Holland: C to LG
Alex Aukerman: OLB to MLB
Scott Washle: MLB to OLB
Elijah Riley: SS to CB
Jalen Sharp: CB to FS
Zach Scott: CB to SS

This offseason there were some surprising outcomes due to the work ethic system, all results can be found below, but we'll summarize some key improvements and disappointing results below.

Biggest Improvements
DE Rod Stoddard II - Has the highest work ethic rating on the team, and it shows, the now sophomore DE jumped from a 63 to a 74 OVR. This is a healthy improvement for a position that is set to start two seniors.

OLB Bayle Wolf - Wolf was a backup last season, and despite not being in a position battle at all at the end of the season, his +7 to a 77 OVR puts him in a spot to start at LOLB this season, despite returning starter Kenneth Brinson returning.

QB Ahmad Bradshaw, RB Kell Walker, FB Andy Davidson, DE John Voit - All four of these guys are happy to have top 10 work ethic grades on the team, and they all had good seasons last year to boot.

WR Luke Peterman - Peterman, who saw 0 receptions last year, saw a +6 jump to a 71 OVR, with the rest of the WR group doing literally nothing in training camps, Peterman finds himself in line for tons of PT this year.

Biggest Disappointments
OT Rick Kurz - He was in contention to start, but dropped -2 OVR points to 67.

CB Mike Reynolds - Our #1 corner for most of the 2016 season didn't improve at all and remains at 72 OVR and his starting spot is in danger.

FS Rhyan England/possible starting SS's - Rhyan England only gained 1 OVR point and is in danger of not keeping his starting job. Zach Scott and Boomer Bakich jr. both regressed and seem to have passed the starting SS job to incoming freshman Rob Roy.

Misc Stats
The average gain was 2.6 OVR points
1 player gained more than 10 OVR rating
13 players gained more than 6 OVR rating
7 players gained just 1 OVR rating
10 players regressed
7 players had no OVR change

Full results & notes:

[Iron Dragon]

ARMY 2017 SEASON PREVIEW

LOOKING BACK

Army's 9-4 season was a dream - a win over Navy, a bowl win, and the Commander-in-Chief Trophy - but the number crunchers will dig into that record and note they played the worst strength of schedule in the country. Their three best wins - Navy, Air Force and Tulsa - combined for 19 wins. They gave Duke their only win of the year.

QB Ahmad Bradshaw and FB Andy Davidson both ran for 1,000 yards - and both return. They return one of their defensive stars - DE John Voit - who racked up 11 sacks last year.

LOOKING FORWARD

Army 2017 Football Schedule
8-29 at #13 Washington (Friday, 6:00PM)
9-6 vs Duke (3:30PM)
9-13 at #1 Ohio State (Noon)
9-20 vs Buffalo (Noon)
9-27 vs Temple (8:00PM)
10-4 at BYU (2:30PM)
OFF
10-16 at Tulane (Thurs., 8:00PM)
10-25 vs UTEP (8:00PM)
11-1 vs Air Force (Noon) *
OFF
11-15 at Georgia (Noon)
11-22 vs Rice (Noon)
OFF
12-6 Navy in Philadelphia (3:00PM) *
*Commander-in-Chief Trophy Game

Looking at Army's 2017 schedule - it looks much more challenging on paper. The Black Knights also branch out this year with 2 home night games, 2 non-Saturday games, and 2 away night games.

Breaking it down:
Washington - a playoff contender.
Duke - should be much improved, but still defeated Army last year for only win.
Ohio State - defending national champs who barely lost anyone.
Buffalo - a team Army handled last year.
Temple - looking to bounce back and get revenge on a bitter week 1 defeat last year.
BYU - a challenging place to play and a good team.
Tulane - Option vs Option - Tulane, in its second year of its option attack looks to be much improved.
UTEP - a team that Army fell to early last season
Air Force - Air Force lost some key pieces but always seems to bounce back
Georgia - Part of the classic SEC "tune-up" week, the Bulldogs could be ranked at this time.
Rice - Seems to match up well with Army on paper.
Navy - You don't think they want revenge?

CEILING PROJECTION: 9-3 (losses to Washington, Ohio State, Georgia)
GOOD CHANCE PROJECTION: 6-6 (losses to the above + BYU, Duke and Air Force or Navy)

ARMY 2017 DEPTH CHART

Army offense: Led by senior QB Ahmad Bradshaw (734 pass yards, 1285 yards, 14 total TD) and FB Andy Davidson, the Army offense returns 8 starters, including its top six rushers from last season. New starters include JUCO transfer Les Studholme II, who looks to replace Edgar Poe, who led the team in catches in 2016. The other two are on the left side of the offensive line with freshman Matt Allegrotto and converted center senior Bryce Holland at left guard.

Coach A.J. Jackson has stated he would love to pass the ball more in 2016 - something Army did without a single INT last year. Luke Peterman shot up the WR depth chart this spring, but it seems to be a mess behind him and Studholme. Quintin Parker was much improved as well, and hopes to make a bigger impact at TE.

The rushing game should be largely the same - QB Ahmad Bradshaw, FB Andy Davidson. The coaching staff hopes they see good production from a 3rd and 4th player - safe bets for this would be RB Kell Walker and freshman FB David Poreda III.

Army starts five seniors on offense, including four on the offensive line.

Army defense: While Coach Jackson plays no role in the defense, it is a senior-heavy starting 11.

There are five seniors in the front seven - and the group sees a handful of new starters.

Both MLBs are new, kinda - Alex Aukerman moves over from OLB to MLB, and Cole Macek moves from FB back to MLB, and make up the inside. Bayle Wolf took over the starting LOLB spot from Kenneth Brinson, who is now a reserve LB. Elijah Riley moved from safety to corner and starts over now nickel CB Mike Reynolds. FS Jalen Sharp moved from CB and starts there now. True freshman Rob Roy is the team's opening day starting SS.

Meanwhile, the defensive line is unchanged up front with three seniors leading the way, the strength of the Army defense is easily it's front seven. This defense bailed out Army and put up some fantastic stats in 2016 - they hope to repeat as a top 5 red zone defense again this year.

The season is soon to kickoff and Army is riding the high of 2016 but they hope it doesn't come crashing back down to reality.

[Iron Dragon]

CFB Recap 2017 Preseason Edition

PRESEASON POLL
1. Ohio State
2. Louisville
3. Alabama
4. LSU
5. North Carolina
6. UCLA
7. Oklahoma
8. Tennessee
9. Auburn
10. Baylor
11. Michigan State
12. Clemson
13. Washington
14. Michigan
15. Virginia Tech
16. Stanford
17. Nebraska
18. Florida State
19. Miami
20. Northwestern
21. Ole Miss
22. Notre Dame
23. Indiana
24. USC
25. Texas A&M
29. Western Kentucky
30. Western Michigan
54. Army
55. Air Force
97. Navy

HEISMAN WATCH
J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Soso Jamabo, RB, UCLA
Ito Smith, RB, Southern Miss

FIRST-TEAM PRESEASON ALL-AMERICANS
QB J.T. Barrett, Ohio State
RB Soso Jamabo, UCLA
RB Christian McCaffrey, Stanford
WR Curtis Samuel, Ohio State
WR K.D. Cannon, Baylor
TE Brandon Lingen, Minnesota
OT Roderick Johnson, Florida State
OT Cam Robinson, Alabama
G Brian Allen, Michigan State
G Billy Price, Ohio State
C Coleman Thomas, Tennessee
DE John Voit, Army
DE Derek Barnett, Tennessee
DT Michael Hill, Ohio State
DT Harrison Phillips, Stanford
MLB Deshaun Davis, Auburn
OLB Dre Greenlaw, Arkansas
OLB Jojo Wicker, Arizona State
CB Joshua Kalu, Nebraska
CB Ronald Lewis, Louisiana Tech
FS Chase Dutta, Indiana
SS Derwin James, Florida State
K Rafael Gaglianone, Wisconsin
P Trevor Daniel, Tennessee
RET Adoree Jackson, USC

ID's TOTALLY WRONG PREDICTIONS
National Champions: Ohio State (over Alabama)
Playoff 4: Ohio State, Alabama, Louisville, USC
Heisman: Lamar Jackson, Louisville
Preseason Top 25 teams that will disappoint: Baylor, Northwestern, Indiana
Preseason Top 50 teams that will surprise: USC, TCU, Colorado, Texas
Top Group of Five Team: USF

[Hellisan]

Can just see someone naming their kid Edgar Poe. Love the custom improvement. At an overall improvement of what, like 2.6 points? That's significantly lower than real teams. Which is a built-in help to not becoming too dominant. Mine is a little higher, but not much. There's really no argument against its use unless people just don't want to put in the time. For me, it has been well worth it. A little effort for a huge payoff in realism. If anything, I have been surprised how limited the improvement has been even for players with a very high work ethic rating. They roll 2 and 3 improvement a lot. LOL. I've had very bad players become very good, but I've never had an average player become a 95-99 or something. and I've done about one full improvement cycle with Idaho. Good luck in this upcoming season, Dragon.

[LopaKa]

Damn that's a tough schedule. Excited for Roy to be a day one starter, hopefully he doesn't give up too many big plays lol

[Iron Dragon]

Time to play catch up, thanks for checking in everyone...

Quote: Originally Posted by The Ole Ball Coach

This is great stuff man! And good on Western Michigan getting that New Years Six win!!!

Thanks, was surprised to see WMU dominate Miami like that. I had to CPUvCPU the game and they drove down the field on their first drive like it was nothing and I knew they had a shot.

Quote: Originally Posted by Hellisan

Congrats on an incredible season with some exciting ups and downs. It's pretty hard not to throw INT even if you're mostly throwing it downfield off the play action. I love the ideas that you added to make it more realistic for Army with the weight limit. Like the idea of the work ethic boosts as well. I think the summaries you do on the around the NCAA are succinct yet effective, great stuff. Overall, really enjoyed the first season. Looking forward to the offseason and another year of the Black Knights.

I got lucky with INTs last year for sure, I don't think I've ever thrown the ball away so much though or I would take off with Bradshaw if there was no quick option. Appreciate the feedback - I had gotten behind when I first posted this in season 1 and just skipped over the NCAA summaries but they will be weekly going forward.

Quote: Originally Posted by dabeastmodetey

You did a great job on the first season, very detailed.

Thank you! Went much better than expected but I have made some slight tweaks to sliders and am watching all defensive plays this year.

Quote: Originally Posted by LopaKa

Pretty solid recruiting class there bro, can't wait to see how Roy does!

Yes, it was pretty decent for year one - our rivalry wins were a big win for recruiting. Surprised how many recruits immediately have interest in the service academies. Most of these three-star guys want to come to us, Navy or Air Force.

Quote: Originally Posted by Hellisan

Can just see someone naming their kid Edgar Poe. Love the custom improvement. At an overall improvement of what, like 2.6 points? That's significantly lower than real teams. Which is a built-in help to not becoming too dominant. Mine is a little higher, but not much. There's really no argument against its use unless people just don't want to put in the time. For me, it has been well worth it. A little effort for a huge payoff in realism. If anything, I have been surprised how limited the improvement has been even for players with a very high work ethic rating. They roll 2 and 3 improvement a lot. LOL. I've had very bad players become very good, but I've never had an average player become a 95-99 or something. and I've done about one full improvement cycle with Idaho. Good luck in this upcoming season, Dragon.

I think the custom system is much more realistic after just doing it for one year. There were certain guys that had big years that improved, then there were starters that "slacked" and watched their starting role go away. We had a complete disaster at SS with all the returners regressing, opening the job for a freshman. The results just made everything unpredictable, but much better than will this player improve by +4 or +6? I knew the system was interesting when our biggest improvement came from a DE who just saw enough snaps to not get a redshirt and is now pushing for lots of playing time.

Quote: Originally Posted by LopaKa

Damn that's a tough schedule. Excited for Roy to be a day one starter, hopefully he doesn't give up too many big plays lol

We're actually playing 9 games on Army's actual 2017 schedule - Air Force, Navy, Ohio State, Duke, Buffalo, Tulane, Rice, UTEP and Temple. There was a surprising lack of teams we could schedule in some weeks... Week 1 - we had choices of Washington, Texas A&M, then FCS schools. The week we play Georgia, it was littered with SEC/ACC schools then FCS only. I didn't really want to play a week 1 game since it seems the game never gets that right and only schedules like 4 teams to play, but I wanted to keep that BYE before Navy like it has been for a few years in RL.

Roy was one of the big winners from the custom system, he watched all of his competition slack off in practice.

[The Ole Ball Coach]

How do you assign the Work Ethic rating for each player? Do you just do this for your team, or did you do all teams??

[Iron Dragon]

Quote: Originally Posted by The Ole Ball Coach

How do you assign the Work Ethic rating for each player? Do you just do this for your team, or did you do all teams??

Hellisan's idea - he has a thread about it in the NCAA forum. Done randomly in Excel and random.org. Just for my team.