MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

[AC]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Starling is a prospect. He's aloud to play badly. And like WTNY said, Guzman is a replacement player. 69 OVR D Pot. Those are a dime a dozen. HRs are irrelevant.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Why is he allowed to play badly? Minor league numbers are extremely predictive of major league numbers. If the dude sucks in the minors, he sucks in the minors. And you're just gonna dismiss Guzman's home runs? How many 35 home run hitters are there? From 2008 to 2013, an average of 9.2 players hit 35 home runs or more. Of the 7814 player seasons from 2008-2013, 46 seasons included 35 home runs or more. That's 0.5%. I'd call that very relevant and anything but dime a dozen.

all numbers courtesy the Lahman database and my slowly improving SQL skills

[moth to a flame]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I think you're overstating how predictive minor league numbers are.

Also, it's irrelevant due to the small sample size. Guzman could have just had a hot start. His past shows no signs of being a slugger like that. Something real GMs would consider.

I have Don Kelly batting .400 after one-plus month. It's not relevant to his trade value. IMO.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[AC]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I think you're overstating how predictive minor league numbers are.

Also, it's irrelevant due to the small sample size. Guzman could have just had a hot start. His past shows no signs of being a slugger like that. Something real GMs would consider.

I have Don Kelly batting .400 after one-plus month. It's not relevant to his trade value. IMO.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don't think I'm overstating it. I read somewhere that the predictive value, or correlation coefficient r^2, was over 0.7, which means that minor league numbers explain 70% of a player's major league numbers. That's extremely important.

And it isn't a very small sample size. ND is over halfway done his season. That means that Guzman probably has near 400 plate appearances, assuming he's seen an average amount of playing time (4.3 PA/G I think). That's enough for seasonal stats to stabilize and be indicative of RoS performance. It's been much more than a month. At this point, KC is loading up for a playoff run.

[moth to a flame]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I don't think I'm overstating it. I read somewhere that the predictive value, or correlation coefficient r^2, was over 0.7, which means that minor league numbers explain 70% of a player's major league numbers. That's extremely important.



And it isn't a very small sample size. ND is over halfway done his season. That means that Guzman probably has near 400 plate appearances, assuming he's seen an average amount of playing time (4.3 PA/G I think). That's enough for seasonal stats to stabilize and be indicative of RoS performance. It's been much more than a month. At this point, KC is loading up for a playoff run.

While 400 PAs is certainly enough for power numbers, I'd just have to disagree on the trade. But, I'd very much like to read up on minor league stats and the correlation, if you could remember where you'd seen that. That sounds interesting.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[AC]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

While 400 PAs is certainly enough for power numbers, I'd just have to disagree on the trade. But, I'd very much like to read up on minor league stats and the correlation, if you could remember where you'd seen that. That sounds interesting.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I've been trying to remember lately, funny that it should come up. I'll PM you if I can find something.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I can't believe an organization's top ten prospect went for Jesus Guzman. Even if he is failing to live up to expectations.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Starling is a prospect. He's aloud to play badly. And like WTNY said, Guzman is a replacement player. 69 OVR D Pot. Those are a dime a dozen. HRs are irrelevant.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I agree with your assessment here. But the trade is already done and you can tell the OP at least did it in good faith. It's not as though he, for example....offered his two worst MLB veterans for Byron Buxton and just called it a day. This Guzman/Starling deal is at least in the solar system of fairness if not closely orbiting the sun. Starling still has a pretty good chance of busting out as well. The bigger issue for me was not necessarily the value, but what the heck would KC do with Jesus Guzman? lol

[AC]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I agree with your assessment here. But the trade is already done and you can tell the OP at least did it in good faith. It's not as though he, for example....offered his two worst MLB veterans for Byron Buxton and just called it a day. This Guzman/Starling deal is at least in the solar system of fairness if not closely orbiting the sun. Starling still has a pretty good chance of busting out as well. The bigger issue for me was not necessarily the value, but what the heck would KC do with Jesus Guzman? lol

Slot him at 3B for a playoff run while bringing a big bat over Moose was my thought process.

[NDAlum]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Guzman/Starling trade is decently fair, but might be overestimating decent stats on a replacement-level player like Guzman. Also you have to consider what would KC actually do with Guzman while having Hosmer, Butler, and Gordon already.

No feelings either way on the Toronto deal.

Appreciate the feedback. I'm in Year 2 and Butler was signed by Philly in the off-season. Their other options were: Brett Wallace (AAA), Kevin Kouzmanoff (MLB), Justin Maxwell (MLB).

Based on the circumstances I'm happy with it and think it helps the Royals as Guzman can be their DH and fill in at four positions when guys need a day off. Also in a lineup with a bunch of lefty hitters he can provide a solid bat vs LHP.

Just caught up on moth to a flame's post. I can see that point of view where Starling might be a bit much for Guzman. I do believe this is where you see a guy's name and say "well he isn't any good" just because of his name just as you could see a guy's name and over value him. In the sim season Guzman hit .265 with 23 HR's and 84 RBI. Remember this is year #2 of my franchise as I simmed the first season.

KC has a clear need for a bat in their lineup. Some team stats after adding Guzman:

11th in runs
T-27th in Home Runs *They were 30th before the trade, they clearly need some pop*
12th in SLG%

I think I absolutely cashed in on the maximum value for Guzman at this point. That was 100% my goal.

Royals are 50-41 at this point which is 6.5 games better than the Indians. They have the 2nd best record in the AL and they need a hot bat to put into their lineup. Their offense clearly needs it.

Does this test past the real life eye test? Heck no Guzman is struggling IRL and Starling was a higher pick. In this franchise it makes sense based on what is going on. KC is in "win now" mode this year.

To me it makes sense but I could see how it doesn't make sense to somebody else.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Appreciate the feedback. I'm in Year 2 and Butler was signed by Philly in the off-season. Their other options were: Brett Wallace (AAA), Kevin Kouzmanoff (MLB), Justin Maxwell (MLB).

Based on the circumstances I'm happy with it and think it helps the Royals as Guzman can be their DH and fill in at four positions when guys need a day off. Also in a lineup with a bunch of lefty hitters he can provide a solid bat vs LHP.

Just caught up on moth to a flame's post. I can see that point of view where Starling might be a bit much for Guzman. I do believe this is where you see a guy's name and say "well he isn't any good" just because of his name just as you could see a guy's name and over value him. In the sim season Guzman hit .265 with 23 HR's and 84 RBI. Remember this is year #2 of my franchise as I simmed the first season.

KC has a clear need for a bat in their lineup. Some team stats after adding Guzman:

11th in runs
T-27th in Home Runs *They were 30th before the trade, they clearly need some pop*
12th in SLG%

I think I absolutely cashed in on the maximum value for Guzman at this point. That was 100% my goal.

Royals are 50-41 at this point which is 6.5 games better than the Indians. They have the 2nd best record in the AL and they need a hot bat to put into their lineup. Their offense clearly needs it.

Does this test past the real life eye test? Heck no Guzman is struggling IRL and Starling was a higher pick. In this franchise it makes sense based on what is going on. KC is in "win now" mode this year.

To me it makes sense but I could see how it doesn't make sense to somebody else.

Welp...Thanks for the clarification though I hate seeing an NL team sign a DH. I guess nothing RAJ does would really surprise me.

But, I think with giving Guzman a place to play everyday makes this a more realistic deal than if Butler were there. I sure wouldn't think of playing Guzman at the hot corner.

Only issue I see with you having simmed a season is Guzman was not a young player to begin with, but is now what 31 or 32?

Will be interesting to see how he does for KC if you keep an eye on him. Also interesting to see how you plan on fitting Bubba into your OF going forward.

[NDAlum]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Welp...Thanks for the clarification though I hate seeing an NL team sign a DH. I guess nothing RAJ does would really surprise me.

But, I think with giving Guzman a place to play everyday makes this a more realistic deal than if Butler were there. I sure wouldn't think of playing Guzman at the hot corner.

Only issue I see with you having simmed a season is Guzman was not a young player to begin with, but is now what 31 or 32?

Will be interesting to see how he does for KC if you keep an eye on him. Also interesting to see how you plan on fitting Bubba into your OF going forward.

Guzman is 30
Starling is 22

I'm definitely going to keep an eye on Guzman. I'm going to put Bubba in AAA the rest of the season. If he progresses I'll give him a shot next year to play.

[guayo10]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Scratched the Cubs idea with trading the farm away since I've found one of my older chises with them. Still early (May 19th, playing all the games at all levels). I'm out of the race as I'm currently 13-30. Pen has been a mess thus far starters have pitched well, their win and losses have been atrocious though. I'm going to keep on playing this one, not making any trades till the All Star game or around there, but one that came to mind was this one (Big trade):

Spoiler

Cubs get SP Julio Urias, SP Taijuan Walker, SS Dee Gordon, OF Joc Pederson, SP Luiz Gohara

Dodgers get SP Jeff Samardzija, SS Starlin Castro, SP Hisashi Iwakuma, OF Stefen Romero, OF Dustin Ackley, C/1B Jesus Montero, RP Pedro Strop, SP Danny Hulten

Mariners get 1B Anthony Rizzo, 3B Corey Seager, SP Zach Lee, CF Matt Kemp (Could switch for Andre Ethier/Carl Crawford and make the trade smaller), SP Chad Billingsley, OF Jacob Scavuzzo, SP Travis Wood

Here's my reasoning (part 1)

Spoiler

My inability to play well with Starlin (on a cold streak hitting around .270 thus far) will more than likely see me sell. Also not the biggest Rizzo fan, would rather trade him for a young ace and move Olt to 1B when I bring Bryant up. Thus far I started Bryant and Baez in AA, both are killing it. Will bring Bryant up to AAA in a day or two. See how he does there, Baez should be up by early June. Away from the console but I think the Dodgers are in 1st in the division over the Giants by a game or two; and the M's are 4 or so games out of the West and a couple out of the WC.

Further dissecting of the trade

Spoiler

Way I see it, it's a couple mini trades that make up a big one. Different steps to getting to the big one, so here we go:

Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro, RP Pedro Strop, and SP Jeff Samardzija to the Dodgers for SP Julio Urias, 3B Corey Seager, OF Joc Pederson, SS Dee Gordon and SP Zach Lee (is this fair value? Idk).

Then the Dodgers trade CF Matt Kemp (can be one of the other 2 and make the trade a lot smaller), SP Chad Billingsley and OF Jacob Scavuzzo to the Mariners for SP Hisashi Iwakuma, SP Danny Hultzen, C/1B Jesus Montero, OF Stefen Romero, and OF Dustin Ackley

And finally the Cubs trade 1B Anthony Rizzo, 3B Corey Seager, SP Zach Lee and SP Travis Wood to the M's for SP Taijuan Walker and SP Luiz Gohara

Again not sure if this is fair value to any of these but I'd like to think most of these are close. Can insert CJ Edwards or a young Cubs pitcher if need be.

Scenarios where this would work in my mind:

Spoiler

1.Dodgers in the playoff race (obviously will imo) and Beckett & Haren continue to struggle in their rotation. How scary would a 1-5 be of: Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, Samardzija, & Iwakuma? Also adding Starlin to a loaded line up, would move Hanley to 3rd and bring up Guerrero from AAA. SP Danny Hultzen would go to the minors and Strop would help out in their pen.

2.The M's, if they stay in the race do they do this? While they're trading away a starter and a potential ace (Walker is at AAA) they get back a CF and their 1B of the future. Along with Travis Wood & Chad Billingsley would slot into their rotation, Zach Lee who would be fighting for a rotation spot next year, Corey Seager + Scavuzzo for the future. Also Smoak had been struggling last I saw, so Rizzo would fit in nicely. Would give them 2 good bats to go along Cano.

3.Cubs, get back 2 potential Aces for their rotation along Gohara, Joc Pederson would be able to come in and play LF or go down to AAA. Dee Gordon would be a fill in until Baez arrives or he could play 2B and Barney would be moved. Can also be a trading chip for the future.

Just thinking ahead as Samardzija won't be coming back and I'd like to package him with Castro or Rizzo for a bigger haul.

Realistic? Probably not but it helps all teams imo. Is every team getting fair value back? Should the Cubs get more back, are they getting more than enough back? Are the Dodgers giving up more than they're getting back? Are the M's silently stealing the trade? Yes/no, would appreciate some feedback. Not moving pieces till July so I've got time to think of more moves or a way to move Castro/Rizzo + Samardzija. Also obviously going for fairness and not really realism. Although I can see the M's adding bats to help out Robbie, to the point of trading pitching away? Idk. Ha.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Scratched the Cubs idea with trading the farm away since I've found one of my older chises with them. Still early (May 19th, playing all the games at all levels). I'm out of the race as I'm currently 13-30. Pen has been a mess thus far starters have pitched well, their win and losses have been atrocious though. I'm going to keep on playing this one, not making any trades till the All Star game or around there, but one that came to mind was this one (Big trade):

Spoiler

Cubs get SP Julio Urias, SP Taijuan Walker, SS Dee Gordon, OF Joc Pederson, SP Luiz Gohara

Dodgers get SP Jeff Samardzija, SS Starlin Castro, SP Hisashi Iwakuma, OF Stefen Romero, OF Dustin Ackley, C/1B Jesus Montero, RP Pedro Strop, SP Danny Hulten

Mariners get 1B Anthony Rizzo, 3B Corey Seager, SP Zach Lee, CF Matt Kemp (Could switch for Andre Ethier/Carl Crawford and make the trade smaller), SP Chad Billingsley, OF Jacob Scavuzzo, SP Travis Wood

Here's my reasoning (part 1)

Spoiler

My inability to play well with Starlin (on a cold streak hitting around .270 thus far) will more than likely see me sell. Also not the biggest Rizzo fan, would rather trade him for a young ace and move Olt to 1B when I bring Bryant up. Thus far I started Bryant and Baez in AA, both are killing it. Will bring Bryant up to AAA in a day or two. See how he does there, Baez should be up by early June. Away from the console but I think the Dodgers are in 1st in the division over the Giants by a game or two; and the M's are 4 or so games out of the West and a couple out of the WC.

Further dissecting of the trade

Spoiler

Way I see it, it's a couple mini trades that make up a big one. Different steps to getting to the big one, so here we go:

Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro, RP Pedro Strop, and SP Jeff Samardzija to the Dodgers for SP Julio Urias, 3B Corey Seager, OF Joc Pederson, SS Dee Gordon and SP Zach Lee (is this fair value? Idk).

Then the Dodgers trade CF Matt Kemp (can be one of the other 2 and make the trade a lot smaller), SP Chad Billingsley and OF Jacob Scavuzzo to the Mariners for SP Hisashi Iwakuma, SP Danny Hultzen, C/1B Jesus Montero, OF Stefen Romero, and OF Dustin Ackley

And finally the Cubs trade 1B Anthony Rizzo, 3B Corey Seager, SP Zach Lee and SP Travis Wood to the M's for SP Taijuan Walker and SP Luiz Gohara

Again not sure if this is fair value to any of these but I'd like to think most of these are close. Can insert CJ Edwards or a young Cubs pitcher if need be.

Scenarios where this would work in my mind:

Spoiler

1.Dodgers in the playoff race (obviously will imo) and Beckett & Haren continue to struggle in their rotation. How scary would a 1-5 be of: Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, Samardzija, & Iwakuma? Also adding Starlin to a loaded line up, would move Hanley to 3rd and bring up Guerrero from AAA. SP Danny Hultzen would go to the minors and Strop would help out in their pen.

2.The M's, if they stay in the race do they do this? While they're trading away a starter and a potential ace (Walker is at AAA) they get back a CF and their 1B of the future. Along with Travis Wood & Chad Billingsley would slot into their rotation, Zach Lee who would be fighting for a rotation spot next year, Corey Seager + Scavuzzo for the future. Also Smoak had been struggling last I saw, so Rizzo would fit in nicely. Would give them 2 good bats to go along Cano.

3.Cubs, get back 2 potential Aces for their rotation along Gohara, Joc Pederson would be able to come in and play LF or go down to AAA. Dee Gordon would be a fill in until Baez arrives or he could play 2B and Barney would be moved. Can also be a trading chip for the future.

Just thinking ahead as Samardzija won't be coming back and I'd like to package him with Castro or Rizzo for a bigger haul.

Realistic? Probably not but it helps all teams imo. Is every team getting fair value back? Should the Cubs get more back, are they getting more than enough back? Are the Dodgers giving up more than they're getting back? Are the M's silently stealing the trade? Yes/no, would appreciate some feedback. Not moving pieces till July so I've got time to think of more moves or a way to move Castro/Rizzo + Samardzija. Also obviously going for fairness and not really realism. Although I can see the M's adding bats to help out Robbie, to the point of trading pitching away? Idk. Ha.

Realism score = 0.

Would not recommend.

[AC]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I can't analyze a trade I can't even wrap my head around. I have limits, lol. I'll just say pass on it.

[CameRoN0407]

MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Cubs get SP Julio Urias, SP Taijuan Walker, SS Dee Gordon, OF Joc Pederson, SP Luiz Gohara

Dodgers get SP Jeff Samardzija, SS Starlin Castro, SP Hisashi Iwakuma, OF Stefen Romero, OF Dustin Ackley, C/1B Jesus Montero, RP Pedro Strop, SP Danny Hulten

Mariners get 1B Anthony Rizzo, 3B Corey Seager, SP Zach Lee, CF Matt Kemp (Could switch for Andre Ethier/Carl Crawford and make the trade smaller), SP Chad Billingsley, OF Jacob Scavuzzo, SP Travis Wood

Holy crap. I don't know where to start. I really pray you are not too high on realism. I don't see why Seattle would trade practically their whole team for 3 MLB guys, a reliever, and 2 prospects. also don't see why Dodgers would want pitching, and a DH who is struggling to hit at league average, while giving up their whole farm.

doesn't make any sense.

[Bull_Market]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Scratched the Cubs idea with trading the farm away since I've found one of my older chises with them. Still early (May 19th, playing all the games at all levels). I'm out of the race as I'm currently 13-30. Pen has been a mess thus far starters have pitched well, their win and losses have been atrocious though. I'm going to keep on playing this one, not making any trades till the All Star game or around there, but one that came to mind was this one (Big trade):

Spoiler

Cubs get SP Julio Urias, SP Taijuan Walker, SS Dee Gordon, OF Joc Pederson, SP Luiz Gohara

Dodgers get SP Jeff Samardzija, SS Starlin Castro, SP Hisashi Iwakuma, OF Stefen Romero, OF Dustin Ackley, C/1B Jesus Montero, RP Pedro Strop, SP Danny Hulten

Mariners get 1B Anthony Rizzo, 3B Corey Seager, SP Zach Lee, CF Matt Kemp (Could switch for Andre Ethier/Carl Crawford and make the trade smaller), SP Chad Billingsley, OF Jacob Scavuzzo, SP Travis Wood

Here's my reasoning (part 1)

Spoiler

My inability to play well with Starlin (on a cold streak hitting around .270 thus far) will more than likely see me sell. Also not the biggest Rizzo fan, would rather trade him for a young ace and move Olt to 1B when I bring Bryant up. Thus far I started Bryant and Baez in AA, both are killing it. Will bring Bryant up to AAA in a day or two. See how he does there, Baez should be up by early June. Away from the console but I think the Dodgers are in 1st in the division over the Giants by a game or two; and the M's are 4 or so games out of the West and a couple out of the WC.

Further dissecting of the trade

Spoiler

Way I see it, it's a couple mini trades that make up a big one. Different steps to getting to the big one, so here we go:

Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro, RP Pedro Strop, and SP Jeff Samardzija to the Dodgers for SP Julio Urias, 3B Corey Seager, OF Joc Pederson, SS Dee Gordon and SP Zach Lee (is this fair value? Idk).

Then the Dodgers trade CF Matt Kemp (can be one of the other 2 and make the trade a lot smaller), SP Chad Billingsley and OF Jacob Scavuzzo to the Mariners for SP Hisashi Iwakuma, SP Danny Hultzen, C/1B Jesus Montero, OF Stefen Romero, and OF Dustin Ackley

And finally the Cubs trade 1B Anthony Rizzo, 3B Corey Seager, SP Zach Lee and SP Travis Wood to the M's for SP Taijuan Walker and SP Luiz Gohara

Again not sure if this is fair value to any of these but I'd like to think most of these are close. Can insert CJ Edwards or a young Cubs pitcher if need be.

Scenarios where this would work in my mind:

Spoiler

1.Dodgers in the playoff race (obviously will imo) and Beckett & Haren continue to struggle in their rotation. How scary would a 1-5 be of: Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, Samardzija, & Iwakuma? Also adding Starlin to a loaded line up, would move Hanley to 3rd and bring up Guerrero from AAA. SP Danny Hultzen would go to the minors and Strop would help out in their pen.

2.The M's, if they stay in the race do they do this? While they're trading away a starter and a potential ace (Walker is at AAA) they get back a CF and their 1B of the future. Along with Travis Wood & Chad Billingsley would slot into their rotation, Zach Lee who would be fighting for a rotation spot next year, Corey Seager + Scavuzzo for the future. Also Smoak had been struggling last I saw, so Rizzo would fit in nicely. Would give them 2 good bats to go along Cano.

3.Cubs, get back 2 potential Aces for their rotation along Gohara, Joc Pederson would be able to come in and play LF or go down to AAA. Dee Gordon would be a fill in until Baez arrives or he could play 2B and Barney would be moved. Can also be a trading chip for the future.

Just thinking ahead as Samardzija won't be coming back and I'd like to package him with Castro or Rizzo for a bigger haul.

Realistic? Probably not but it helps all teams imo. Is every team getting fair value back? Should the Cubs get more back, are they getting more than enough back? Are the Dodgers giving up more than they're getting back? Are the M's silently stealing the trade? Yes/no, would appreciate some feedback. Not moving pieces till July so I've got time to think of more moves or a way to move Castro/Rizzo + Samardzija. Also obviously going for fairness and not really realism. Although I can see the M's adding bats to help out Robbie, to the point of trading pitching away? Idk. Ha.

Sorry, this made my head hurt, but hey, its your franchise. 3 team trades where each team is giving up more than a third of their roster is not realistic or fair no matter how you try to justify it.