MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

[Deuce2223]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

in what universe is a prospect more valueable then a top 5 pitcher in baseball?

I am confused by what part of my answer you don't agree with.

Deal #1, Deal #2, or Deal #3.

If you are talking deal #1, I am saying No way the Price only nets Tampa Bay Castro in the the deal, and no way the Cubs give up Castro and only get Walker.

I am a huge M's fan and a huge Cubs fan, If I only had to give up Walker to get Price, I would do it in a heart beat, but it's not going to happen, Tampa wants the M's farm and after what Chicago got for Shark, they should.

As a Cubs fan, no way I am trading Castro for just Walker. Well I think he has the ability to be great, Castro's current value again is worth more then just 1 prospect.

Sorry if I didn't make that clear.

In deal #2, the 3 players he proposed might be a good starting point for just Price, but no way that Tampa also includes a their #10 prospect (Stanek) whom they drafted in the 1st round in 2013 and was considered a steal at #29.

I would think that Tampa would prefer something more like SP/RP Cody Anderson (#2) SS Dorssys Paulino (#3) or 2B/SS Jose Ramirez (#6) and C. Tony Wolters (#8).

Not sure why they would want Santana unless they believe he could still play behind the plate, or I guess they could move him to 1B.


In deal #3, well there are reports of Hamels to the Dodgers for the 2 prospects he had listed, I believe that Phillie would ask for 1 more player unless Cole was having a bad year in his Franchise, then you could lower his value down enough to maybe get it done with just those 2 players.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Sorry for the double post, just read this article Jim Bowden wrote for ESPN with proposed deals for the Phillies: http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-...e/post?id=9903

For those of you without insider:

Spoiler

1. Hamels to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for center fielder Joc Pederson and left-handed pitcher Julio Urias

The Dodgers have been linked to both David Price of the Tampa Bay Rays and Hamels. According to sources, the Dodgers are willing to part with one of their top-tier prospects but not two. But the reality is that with the real chance of the Dodgers winning a World Series either this year or next -- and the benefits that a pitcher of Hamels ilk would provide to that cause -- it’s hard to envision the Dodgers letting a teenager stand in the way of a deal.

In return, the Phillies will get their long-term solution in center field with Pederson. Pederson profiles out to a 25-homer, 25-steals type of player who has the potential of joining the 30/30 club, especially if he plays half of his games at Citizens Bank Park. He has a lifetime .305/.404/.515 slash line in five minor league seasons and is major league ready. Urias has a chance to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, and he should be ready for the big leagues by September 2015. This deal would be a game-changer for the Phillies' future and a possible legacy-changer for Amaro in the long term.

2. Lee to the New York Yankees in exchange for outfielder Aaron Judge and right-handed starter Luis Severino

The Yankees might be the only team willing to absorb most of Lee’s contract and take the risk of his elbow. The Phillies would get a legitimate impact bat in Judge, who would hit in the middle of their lineup by 2016 and provide an impact with both on-base percentage and power. Severino would give them a powerful arm for either the back of their rotation or in their bullpen.

3. Utley to the Oakland Athletics in exchange for third baseman Renato Nunez and second baseman Chad Pinder

Utley deserves the opportunity to play in another World Series, and it’s not going to happen in Philadelphia. He needs to keep an open mind and accept a deal to Oakland if given an opportunity. I know he'd prefer to stay in Philadelphia and finish his career there, but it really doesn't make sense for him or the Phillies.

The A’s have only one glaring area to upgrade, and that’s second base. Utley would be the final piece to give Billy Beane his first legitimate shot at a title. In return, the Phillies pick up a legitimate bat and power prospect in Nunez, who I just saw at the Futures Game in Minnesota. His bat is legit. His defense is not. But with hard work, he can become adequate. The question will be where to play him. Nunez has a chance to impact the Phillies' lineup in time.

Pinder is a real sleeper second baseman, and although he’s a few years away, he profiles out to an above-average overall player.

4. Right-hander A.J. Burnett and Papelbon to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for right-handed pitcher Hunter Harvey, left-handed pitcher Tim Berry and right-handed hurler Parker Bridwell

This deal would make the Orioles the favorites to win the AL East (if they’re not already). It would allow them to move Zach Britton to the setup role, where he can pitch multiple innings, and add a veteran starter in Burnett, who would give them added stability in the rotation.

The Phillies would get a legitimate future starter in Harvey, just 19 years old, who profiles out to be a No. 2 type of starting pitcher with the potential of 15 wins, an ERA under three and a WHIP near 1.00. Berry, 23, is 4-5 this year with a 3.89 ERA and 1.298 WHIP at Bowie of the Eastern League (Double-A), while Bridwell is 4-7 with a 4.27 ERA in 18 starts at Frederick of the Carolina League (high A), with 94 strikeouts in 99 innings, yielding 88 hits.

5. Right fielder Marlon Byrd to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for outfielder Gabby Guerrero

The Mariners have to improve their offense, and Byrd would do just that. The Phillies might have to be willing to pay half of Byrd’s vesting option, but it would be worth it if they can get Guerrero back. Guerrero doesn’t come with the top-prospect hype, but he’s a real sleeper. He looks like a clone of his uncle Vladimir Guerrero in almost every aspect. He walks like him, talks like him and even swings at bad pitches like him.

The physical talent is there, the blood lines are there and this would be a solid deal for both sides. Guerrero is not expected to be the same type of player as Vladimir, but even if he ends up just north of Byrd’s talent level, then the deal is worth it just to get younger and cheaper.

6. Rollins to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for right-handed reliever Corey Knebel and middle infielder Hernan Perez

The Tigers seem happy with the play of rookie shortstop Eugenio Suarez, both offensively and defensively. However, Rollins' leadership, high energy and postseason success would fit nicely down the stretch and in the postseason. Knebel has a good arm and should be a solid setup reliever in time.

The Phillies know that J.P. Crawford, their top shortstop prospect, isn’t ready yet. But stockpiling young players and reducing future payroll now is far too important in rebuilding a franchise. The Phillies would have to pay a significant amount of Rollins’ remaining contract to make any deal work.

7. Bastardo to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for right-handed pitcher David Hale and infielder/outfielder Edward Salcedo

The Braves want another impact left-handed reliever to bolster their bullpen, and with Bastardo a free agent after next season, the time for the Phillies to move him is now. Hale should develop into a solid starting pitcher in time. Salcedo needs some development with the bat, but he does have 15- to 20-homer power if the bat comes.

That would be awesome if they could pull that off haha... I don't see much of that, if anything, happening though.

Annnnnnd, we see why Jim Bowden is employed by ESPN instead of an MLB club. Some of these are truly horrible. Not near enough for Utley (an All Star on a reasonable contract with a bunch of vesting options). Hunter Harvey for a closer and a SP like Burnett, lol. I have doubts the M's would give up Gabby Guerrero for a Marlon Byrd rental and that RP Knebel would be enough to get Rollins, but that's at least plausible, especially if they want to start grooming a Papelbon replacement.

Finally, so THIS is where this Cole Hamels chatter is coming from. Urias + Pederson is a start, but I doubt the Phils do it for any less than 3 or 4 excellent to good prospects.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Is this still a good trade to make? Looking for a 2B in my Yankees franchise and i like Dee Gordon

Absolutely not. Cervelli for Dee Gordon would be a total heist by the Yankees. Not even close to fair.

[ESexton18]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Annnnnnd, we see why Jim Bowden is employed by ESPN instead of an MLB club. Some of these are truly horrible. Not near enough for Utley (an All Star on a reasonable contract with a bunch of vesting options). Hunter Harvey for a closer and a SP like Burnett, lol. I have doubts the M's would give up Gabby Guerrero for a Marlon Byrd rental and that RP Knebel would be enough to get Rollins, but that's at least plausible, especially if they want to start grooming a Papelbon replacement.

Finally, so THIS is where this Cole Hamels chatter is coming from. Urias + Pederson is a start, but I doubt the Phils do it for any less than 3 or 4 excellent to good prospects.

I wish the Phillies could pull off all those deals, what an instant boost to the farm system that would be haha. But we'd have to be living in an alternate reality for all that to happen.

[blackninja]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Just what b-more needs, another mid 4era starter. Even if they made that trade it won't be for Harvey, he's 19 and destroying it in the minors.

[AC]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Annnnnnd, we see why Jim Bowden is employed by ESPN instead of an MLB club.

He wasn't always, lol.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

He wasn't always, lol.

Ummm, I know that? He was the Reds GM for bout a minute. But he is out of touch now, it would seem.

[hampshirestags]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Joe Kelly really isn't all that great though. He just puts up a nice ERA. He doesn't strike out many guys and he doesn't have the control to get away with it. That adds up to a career adjusted xFIP 7% worse than average. Plus, his swinging strike percentage has gotten even lower. He just doesn't miss bats or have the control to get away with it. He could be a piece in a Hill trade if Hill is doing as badly as IRL, but for Beltre? No way. Beltre is far and away worth his contract.

No, he's not all that great but he's pretty darn good. Using xFIP to define him, or any contact pitcher, isn't fair as K's are too highly valued (not a fan of any 'adjusted for league average' stat but that's for a different day). Using SIERA is a bit better but before you look, yes, that has him below average as well.

He is not a K pitcher, he does not walk batters, he simply starts playoff games and doesn't give up the long ball. Comfortable with runners on base and working from the stretch and does not let them score his era shows.

We could be getting a little tough on Joe and forgetting the 25mm left on the Beltre deal thru next year. Yes, Beltre is on a career BA pace (at 35) but in the scenario provided, there is a stud behind Beltre, Rangers dump salary and get a known commodity in Kelly along with Piscotty and a piece.

Once you finish the Reyes trade, I'll jack Beltre's value up and come at it from the other side

[hampshirestags]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Ummm, I know that? He was the Reds GM for bout a minute. But he is out of touch now, it would seem.

He is just trying to get readers/fans. Nobody would read the column if he suggested trading minor pieces for bullpen arms.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

He is just trying to get readers/fans. Nobody would read the column if he suggested trading minor pieces for bullpen arms.

True, but cry wolf too many times.....readership

[AC]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

But he is out of touch now, it would seem.

One could say that the "now" was unnecessary.

Using xFIP to define him, or any contact pitcher, isn't fair as K's are too highly valued

Any justification for this statement? Studies done have shown there are very few DIPS beaters. Buehrle. Mariano. It takes a TON of innings to prove that. Most guys who pitch to contact are really just hittable.

He is not a K pitcher, he does not walk batters, he simply starts playoff games and doesn't give up the long ball. Comfortable with runners on base and working from the stretch and does not let them score his era shows.

Again, not giving up the longball is something that takes a ton of innings to be able to accurately state. Kelly's HR/FB% is indicative of potential regression, not skill, as it stands. And a career 3.05 BB/9 with a career 5.97 K/9? Less than 2 K/BB. Not attractive at all.

We could be getting a little tough on Joe and forgetting the 25mm left on the Beltre deal thru next year. Yes, Beltre is on a career BA pace (at 35) but in the scenario provided, there is a stud behind Beltre, Rangers dump salary and get a known commodity in Kelly along with Piscotty and a piece.

Or you could be disregarding the massive sample needed for BABIP and HR/FB% to normalize and underrating Beltre. He's a 5 win 3B. In a rational market, that we unfortunately (obviously) aren't in, that's worth WELL over 30 million dollars a year, much less 25. Plus, it's a short term commitment that he projects to surpass in terms of value very, very easily.

Once you finish the Reyes trade, I'll jack Beltre's value up and come at it from the other side

[hampshirestags]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I think multiplying K's by any amount is a disadvantage for contact pitchers. Also xFIP ignores actual HR's given up and replaces it with what he 'should' have given up. Really?

I have is HR/FB% going the other way (11% in 2012 8.9% in 2013). Allowing for the fact I may be reading it backwards, that shows me development not regression.

Sample size, shample size. He doesn't have, are we supposed to wait? Of course not, we project on what has been done to date and what we see. I like him better than you.

You do remember what happened to that little boy in the movie. Stood up for what he believed and ended up on his back. I'm just saying...

[AC]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I think multiplying K's by any amount is a disadvantage for contact pitchers. Also xFIP ignores actual HR's given up and replaces it with what he 'should' have given up. Really?

Yes, really, and fun fact: It's a better estimator than previous year ERA by far. If you prefer descriptiveness, FIP has Kelly below average too. As does SIERA, as you mentioned. The only measure that has him above average is ERA, which is not predictive; it's descriptive. When evaluating a trade, future performance is being forecasted, thus, xFIP is FAR more effective than ERA.

Again. Contact pitchers. Hittable pitchers.

I have is HR/FB% going the other way (11% in 2012 8.9% in 2013). Allowing for the fact I may be reading it backwards, that shows me development not regression.

Fundamental misunderstanding of both the statistic and the term regression. One does not improve their HR/FB%. It fluctuates and more often than not regresses to the mean. As Kelly deviates further from the mean, he becomes more likely to regress to it.

Also, you're confusing regression with retrogression. Regression is the moving of a data point towards the mean, but is consistently confused with retrogression, which is just getting worse.

Sample size, shample size. He doesn't have, are we supposed to wait? Of course not, we project on what has been done to date and what we see. I like him better than you.

Jake Smolinski is hitting like .600 right now. Sample size, shample size!!

Lol, how can you just disregard xFIP and then turn around and say that we need to project? Are you suggesting that we use past ERA as a predictor of future ERA? Oh boy. Oh goody. This could get goooooood.

You do remember what happened to that little boy in the movie. Stood up for what he believed and ended up on his back. I'm just saying...

You should probably finish the Harry Potter series before you comment on the amazingness that is Neville Longbottom.

[hampshirestags]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Yes, really, and fun fact: It's a better estimator than previous year ERA by far. If you prefer descriptiveness, FIP has Kelly below average too. As does SIERA, as you mentioned. The only measure that has him above average is ERA, which is not predictive; it's descriptive. When evaluating a trade, future performance is being forecasted, thus, xFIP is FAR more effective than ERA.

Again. Contact pitchers. Hittable pitchers.

Yes, he gets hit. Nope, doesn't matter on the scoreboard until a batter crosses home. He seems real good at not letting that happen. His ball moves within the strike zone not letting hitters get square. 50%+ ground ball rate primarily due to a moving FB and little sinker.

I disagree with your ERA is not predictive. A college pitcher, age 26, throws 250 innings and gives up 102 runs. I would expect similar numbers over the next 250. We don't expect him to suddenly start getting crushed? The league has had 2 years to study him and I see fairly consistent numbers over that timeframe.

Fundamental misunderstanding of both the statistic and the term regression. One does not improve their HR/FB%. It fluctuates and more often than not regresses to the mean. As Kelly deviates further from the mean, he becomes more likely to regress to it.

Also, you're confusing regression with retrogression. Regression is the moving of a data point towards the mean, but is consistently confused with retrogression, which is just getting worse.

Quit using big math words, I have to look them up. Though I also disagree in that a HR/FB% can be improved. If I move away from the middle of the plate, I will give up less HR. Or did I just make that way too simple?

Jake Smolinski is hitting like .600 right now. Sample size, shample size!!

Lol, how can you just disregard xFIP and then turn around and say that we need to project? Are you suggesting that we use past ERA as a predictor of future ERA? Oh boy. Oh goody. This could get goooooood.

Jake is the best hitter since Ted Williams. And yes, as I mentioned above, I don't see how you can't use era to predict.

You should probably finish the Harry Potter series before you comment on the amazingness that is Neville Longbottom.

I did. But he got his butt whipped that night!

[AC]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I did. But he got his butt whipped that night!

Lol, I got super confused before I realized you responded within the quote. Bold it next time.

Yes, he gets hit. Nope, doesn't matter on the scoreboard until a batter crosses home. He seems real good at not letting that happen. His ball moves within the strike zone not letting hitters get square. 50%+ ground ball rate primarily due to a moving FB and little sinker.

But if he gets hit, batters will eventually cross home.

I disagree with your ERA is not predictive. A college pitcher, age 26, throws 250 innings and gives up 102 runs. I would expect similar numbers over the next 250. We don't expect him to suddenly start getting crushed? The league has had 2 years to study him and I see fairly consistent numbers over that timeframe.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/dips/

Quit using big math words, I have to look them up. Though I also disagree in that a HR/FB% can be improved. If I move away from the middle of the plate, I will give up less HR. Or did I just make that way too simple?

Lol that's not what HR/FB% is. HR/FB% is the ratio of home runs allowed to flyballs allowed. If you move away from the middle of the plate, you'll probably give up less fly balls, so your ratio won't be affected.

Jake is the best hitter since Ted Williams. And yes, as I mentioned above, I don't see how you can't use era to predict.

Again, http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/dips/

I did. But he got his butt whipped that night!

Neville Longbottom is of the utmost boss-ness. No debate necessary.