MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

[Godgers12]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

An A-POT starter for Tanner Scheppers?? lol, no thank you. That's a horrible trade for the other team. No one trades a prized young A-POT arm for middle relief bullpen help.

I made Scheppers their closer, since he has a 0.89 ERA in late May, and Zack Britton has an 8.87 ERA. And the pitching prospect they sent to the Rangers is still a couple years away only being a 68 OVR.

[KBLover]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Again. Contact pitchers. Hittable pitchers.

Except that's not always true in MLB:TS.

High H/9 + low K/9 + any decent BB/9 = contact pitcher who can thrive. If he has high BB/9, he's going to be pretty insane, locating where ever and inducing a lot of bad contact because he won't be in the middle of the plate.

Taylor Guerrieri for me in MLB13 is a good example. Pure contact pitcher - but his H/9 was high (and growing rapidly) and his BB/9 was good enough. Got a ton of ground balls with him, probably around 70% and upwards of 80% if he's really on.

In real life, that probably wouldn't work - or at least not that well. For one, not many pitchers put up borderline to 80% GB rates, and if they do, they probably don't have consistent .240 BABIPs.

But the game just sees "High H/9" and I worked him low in the zone constantly because he was a contact pitcher (so only mistakes were up most of the time) so that generated a very extreme groundball type pitcher that induced poor contact.

Fundamental misunderstanding of both the statistic and the term regression. One does not improve their HR/FB%. It fluctuates and more often than not regresses to the mean. As Kelly deviates further from the mean, he becomes more likely to regress to it.

Would it not regress to the pitcher's mean, not always the league's average? Every pitcher's ability to prevent HR is probably not league average. It would fluctuate for sure, but the pitcher has some level of base ability as well.

If Kelly is better than average at HR/FB% (I don't know if he is or isn't) - he won't necessarily drop to league average. Just like Felix Hernandez - he's not regressing to league average. He had 3 years of 11% or above (which was below average) and hasn't been over 10% since. He's fluctuated around 7.5% and 10% for the last 6 seasons - his "worst" season is league average. His best (not counting this year's 5%) is solidly above. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

[Xcavs31x]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Don't mean to double post but I didn't get an answer. Was thinking about moving either. Considering to the rays for zobriest. Any ideas?

[AC]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Except that's not always true in MLB:TS.

High H/9 + low K/9 + any decent BB/9 = contact pitcher who can thrive. If he has high BB/9, he's going to be pretty insane, locating where ever and inducing a lot of bad contact because he won't be in the middle of the plate.

Taylor Guerrieri for me in MLB13 is a good example. Pure contact pitcher - but his H/9 was high (and growing rapidly) and his BB/9 was good enough. Got a ton of ground balls with him, probably around 70% and upwards of 80% if he's really on.

In real life, that probably wouldn't work - or at least not that well. For one, not many pitchers put up borderline to 80% GB rates, and if they do, they probably don't have consistent .240 BABIPs.

But the game just sees "High H/9" and I worked him low in the zone constantly because he was a contact pitcher (so only mistakes were up most of the time) so that generated a very extreme groundball type pitcher that induced poor contact.

That's the key here. I'm operating by real life standards. I go by realism.

Would it not regress to the pitcher's mean, not always the league's average? Every pitcher's ability to prevent HR is probably not league average. It would fluctuate for sure, but the pitcher has some level of base ability as well.

It takes 1320 batters to stabilize, before which we regress to the mean, but honestly, most pitchers hover around 9-12% anyways, don't they? Most others are outliers.

If Kelly is better than average at HR/FB% (I don't know if he is or isn't) - he won't necessarily drop to league average. Just like Felix Hernandez - he's not regressing to league average. He had 3 years of 11% or above (which was below average) and hasn't been over 10% since. He's fluctuated around 7.5% and 10% for the last 6 seasons - his "worst" season is league average. His best (not counting this year's 5%) is solidly above. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

I have no idea how this became about HR/FB%. My argument is that Kelly's PD stats are extremely underwhelming and his peripherals are bad, amounting to a below average SP.

[hampshirestags]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Lol, I got super confused before I realized you responded within the quote. Bold it next time.



But if he gets hit, batters will eventually cross home.

But multiple hits have to be strung together for that runner to cross.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/dips/



Lol that's not what HR/FB% is. HR/FB% is the ratio of home runs allowed to flyballs allowed. If you move away from the middle of the plate, you'll probably give up less fly balls, so your ratio won't be affected.



Again, http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/dips/



Neville Longbottom is of the utmost boss-ness. No debate necessary.

I read that little write up by an author so proud of his work, I couldn't find his name anywhere. "ERA - which depends upon the quality of the defense behind the pitcher"...I almost stopped reading. The examples given are exceptions and not the standard. At this level, most guys don't fall off a cliff.

Yeah, I know HR/FB% but I I move the ball left to right, it will impact how much of the bat touches the ball. If I move the ball up and down, that will impact my FB rate. So if I spot a fastball vs. groove it, only the best power hitters will do damage.

Kelly has 250 innings of MLB ball. He gave up 100 runs. This scout doesn't need a formula that changes the pitchers actual numbers to what 'should' have happened and then tell me what he is going to be. Sounds like witchcraft to me (bringing it full circle).

I tried to go back and edit the bold, no joy. Tried again this time, think I got it. I will get this before Barry Bonds makes the HOF, I swear.

[AC]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I read that little write up by an author so proud of his work, I couldn't find his name anywhere. "ERA - which depends upon the quality of the defense behind the pitcher"...I almost stopped reading. The examples given are exceptions and not the standard. At this level, most guys don't fall off a cliff.

You don't like supporting your arguments, do you? ERA is very dependant on the defense behind the pitcher. If you put David Ortiz in CF and a ball goes over his head, it's not an error, so apparently it's the pitcher's fault. There is extreme fluctuation in the amount of balls in play that go for hits for pitchers. To eliminate this fluctuation, we use DIPS.

Yeah, I know HR/FB% but I I move the ball left to right, it will impact how much of the bat touches the ball. If I move the ball up and down, that will impact my FB rate. So if I spot a fastball vs. groove it, only the best power hitters will do damage.

There's actually some data on this but it's unpublished. None of this has anything to do with Kelly though.

Kelly has 250 innings of MLB ball. He gave up 100 runs. This scout doesn't need a formula that changes the pitchers actual numbers to what 'should' have happened and then tell me what he is going to be. Sounds like witchcraft to me (bringing it full circle).

See: FIP. What actually happened.

[hampshirestags]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

You don't like supporting your arguments, do you? ERA is very dependant on the defense behind the pitcher. If you put David Ortiz in CF and a ball goes over his head, it's not an error, so apparently it's the pitcher's fault. There is extreme fluctuation in the amount of balls in play that go for hits for pitchers. To eliminate this fluctuation, we use DIPS.

If I really, really have to I will. This is a bad example for support though.

There's actually some data on this but it's unpublished. None of this has anything to do with Kelly though.



See: FIP. What actually happened.

256.1 innings 102 runs is what happened. FIP is another attempt at explaining it.

[AC]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

256.1 innings 102 runs is what happened. FIP is another attempt at explaining it.

A sub-2 K/BB actually happened too.

[KBLover]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

That's the key here. I'm operating by real life standards. I go by realism.

How do you use real life standards in a game that doesn't?

I mean, I don't disagree with what you're saying, but the game doesn't think or operate that way. How do you mesh the two?

For example, what I know about pitcher BABIP and how the game sort-of approaches BABIP aren't the same. How can I reconcile what the game does with real life as I play the game (since it's not using real life models)?

[cardinal511]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Just to add to the Kelly debate, a big problem I have with him is he's not efficient with his pitches. He's only gone 7 innings in 2 of his 36 career starts (including the last one which I got to see in person). I like that he doesn't surrender a lot of runs, and that can work in playoff starts despite shorter outings, as your best bullpen arms are usually always available, but over the course of a 162 game season it can be detrimental. When his BB/9 stats were mentioned, I was honestly shocked that they weren't higher, because it seems like he has a ton of 3 ball counts. Unless he can get deeper into games, I don't think he'll ever be more than a back of the rotation/ reliever for a playoff team.

Also, as a Cardinals fan, I'd take a Piscotty+ Kelly for Beltre deal today and not question it, which probably means more would need to be added to make the deal fair/realistic.

[AC]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

How do you use real life standards in a game that doesn't?

I mean, I don't disagree with what you're saying, but the game doesn't think or operate that way. How do you mesh the two?

For example, what I know about pitcher BABIP and how the game sort-of approaches BABIP aren't the same. How can I reconcile what the game does with real life as I play the game (since it's not using real life models)?

I think k_mac said it best when he said we have to use our imaginations.

[eoebucco23]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

just started a mariners franchise with custom rosters.. I'm wondering if this is a fair/ legit trade:


Mariners trade:
22 yr old Erasmo Ramirez- SP- B pot 82 ovr- 440K final year
30 yr old Franklin Gutierrez- CF- B pot 80 ovr- 1M final year
22 yr old Chris Taylor- SS- B pot 75 ovr- 430k final year
total salary: 1.89M

Royals trade:
26 yr old Billy Butler- 1B- A pot 82 ovr- 825k 2 years left
30 yr old Jason Vargas- SP- B pot 86 ovr- 1.9M final year
total salary: 2.80M

I need a south paw starting pitcher and an upgrade at 1B. I'm fairly deep at short stop with nick franklin (78 ovr) and brad miller(79 ovr) so I can afford to move Chris Taylor. It looks fair to me, but I want to get a second opinion.

[Deuce2223]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

just started a mariners franchise with custom rosters.. I'm wondering if this is a fair/ legit trade:


Mariners trade:
22 yr old Erasmo Ramirez- SP- B pot 82 ovr- 440K final year
30 yr old Franklin Gutierrez- CF- B pot 80 ovr- 1M final year
22 yr old Chris Taylor- SS- B pot 75 ovr- 430k final year
total salary: 1.89M

Royals trade:
26 yr old Billy Butler- 1B- A pot 82 ovr- 825k 2 years left
30 yr old Jason Vargas- SP- B pot 86 ovr- 1.9M final year
total salary: 2.80M

I need a south paw starting pitcher and an upgrade at 1B. I'm fairly deep at short stop with nick franklin (78 ovr) and brad miller(79 ovr) so I can afford to move Chris Taylor. It looks fair to me, but I want to get a second opinion.

I too am a M's fan and run a M's Franchise that I post in the dynasty section.

Breaking this down, I would say

E-Ram plus Taylor is not enough for Billy Butler. I know the M's would love to get their hands on Butler but I think it's going to take someone like Hutlzen or Paxton instead of E-Ram.

Which brings me to you want a lefty, have you considered just using Paxton and Hultzen especially if you are not keeping things in check with the DL (Hultzen out of the year)

Guti for Vargas is probably fair, but if are including any realism into your franchise, Guti is taking a year off from baseball, so he really shouldn't even be on a roster and KC just signed Vargas so I don't really see them giving him up already.

[eoebucco23]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I too am a M's fan and run a M's Franchise that I post in the dynasty section.

Breaking this down, I would say

E-Ram plus Taylor is not enough for Billy Butler. I know the M's would love to get their hands on Butler but I think it's going to take someone like Hutlzen or Paxton instead of E-Ram.

Which brings me to you want a lefty, have you considered just using Paxton and Hultzen especially if you are not keeping things in check with the DL (Hultzen out of the year)

Guti for Vargas is probably fair, but if are including any realism into your franchise, Guti is taking a year off from baseball, so he really shouldn't even be on a roster and KC just signed Vargas so I don't really see them giving him up already.

Thank you for the response.

I currently have Gutierrez playing in Tacoma, which is a waste since he makes 1M. That's why he's in this trade essentially. Yeah, I want Butler cause he's having a subpar year IRL and I think he will be on the Mariners by the deadline.
I thought about Paxton, but his rating is fairly low right now (67 ovr) so I was going to give him another yr in the minors to monitor his stats. Hultzen is MLB ready, but I don't want to call him up until June to keep it realistic.

it's probably not the best move for the Royals, but they do get MLB ready talent.

what would you give up to get just butler? I agree that I should just call up hul or pax instead of trading for vargas since the royals just signed him

[kmoser]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Don't mean to double post but I didn't get an answer. Was thinking about moving either. Considering to the rays for zobriest. Any ideas?

Look for contending teams that need a RF. Zobrist would be hard to get with Ethier in the deal


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