Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread
What would Greg Birds Surplus be over the life of his contract?
What would Greg Birds Surplus be over the life of his contract?
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Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread
It's impossible to know because we don't know his contract. He's being paid around $540k for the 2017 season and we can assume his 2018 salary will be similar. After that, his service time will determine whether or not he's eligible for arbitration before the 2019 season.
If you go by his 2015 (small sample size) numbers he would be worth around $30mil over a whole season as he achieved .9 WAR in just over 40 games. But his 2017 numbers thus far would suggest negative value as he's at -.6 WAR.
Would be interested to see someone break it down more than that, I'm not the best person for the job.
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Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread
I can do the math later today but from a precursory look it won't be too high. He lost a year of service time to a shoulder injury and 2017 is basically a lost season. So you've got 4 years left of value and 3 of those are with arbitration salary. I'll have to figure out a reasonable WAR figure for him but from his 2015 season a 1B/DH with a 130s wRC+ and negative defensive value is roughly a 2 or 3 WAR player
We also have to consider his injury risk as higher than that of a traditional position player. Missing the bulk of 2 of his first 3 seasons in the bigs with injury makes him "risky". The greatest indicator of future injury is prior injury
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Operation Sports mobile appLast edited by GamecocksLaw17; 06-28-2017, 07:19 AM.Comment
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Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread
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Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread
Okay, I'm going to attempt to tackle this, but I am using his real life play as my basis since you didn't state otherwise, and that's all I have to go off of.
Bird had a preseason projection of 1.9 WAR via STEAMER. I'm going to use that as my basis for the calculations but then deduct a fraction for his repeated injuries. I'll start with 90% of that projection, 1.7 WAR.
So we have 4 years remaining for Bird, and he will be 25-28 over those years. That means he shouldn't hit his decline till after this point. So his projected WAR will be 1.7, 2, 2.2, 2.2. For a total of 9.1 over 4 seasons. I'm also going to use 10 as the value of WAR because I'm being a bit lazy, but inflation should get the average value of WAR to somewhere close to that point over the course of the 4 years of team control.
9.1 x $10= $91 million of value. If we give him Eric Hosmer level arbitration salaries that's something like $4.5 million, $7 million, and $11 million. so $91-$22.5 for a value of $68.5.
But there's no team in baseball that would give up $68 million for an injury prone 1B/DH only player. Especially one who has been worth .3 WAR over his first 250 ABs. I think realistically until he actually proves he can be healthy and perform more like 2015 and not like 2017 the best you could get is around $30 million in value and it would be spread out over more than one player. There is also the consideration that most teams do not need a new 1B, or at least they don't need one more than the Yankees currently do. It would be a hard sell to convince another team he is more like the 137 wRC+ of his rookie year than he is the 29 wRC+ of this current year. They would probably meet somewhere in the middle around 100 and that doesn't cut it for a below average defensive 1BComment
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Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread
30 team control. In 2017 i traded a Sonny Gray who was pitching lights out to Toronto for Vlad Jr, SRF and Bichette. They lost to the Red Sox in the conferance finals. In 2018, They ended up losing to the Dodgers in the WS (Back to Back for LaD).
I resigned Gray to Oakland. Ive been building a up and coming team. Vlad, Healy, Semian, Chapman infield with Olsen, Billy Hamilton and a 2017 Drafted Rookie in RF heading into the 2019 season.
Leads me to this. With Pittsburgh, i let Cole walk as its expected. However, i had him sign with the young/upcoming Oakland team to be their ace. Nice big contract. He pairs with Manaea, Gray, Graveman and Cotton. Oakland also signed Wade Davis in the off season as well.
Is this plausible? Cole to Oakland. I know Oakland irl is terrible, but tgis is a team that finished strong in 2018 missing WC spot .5 games. Thoughts?Oakland A's - Seattle Mariners - Detroit TigersPittsburgh Steelers - Green Bay PackersDetroit Red WingsComment
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Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread
Vlad + SRF + Bichette is similar to what the White Sox got for Sale and no one mistakes Gray for Sale
Its doubtful Gray gets a top-25 prospect and two more top 100.
Vlad Jr just turned 18 and has a 142 wRC+ in A ball
Bichette just turned 19 and has a 203 wRC+ in A ball.
I don't see how the Blue Jays trade either of those unless they're getting a Sale level guy. Gray is good and all but he isn't worth that. Bichette may very well be a top 50 prospect on the midseason BA list and Vlad Jr will probably be top 10 by then.Comment
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Oakland A's - Seattle Mariners - Detroit TigersPittsburgh Steelers - Green Bay PackersDetroit Red WingsComment
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Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread
What would this minor league player cost.
Name: Monte Harrison
Team: Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 21
Drafted: 2nd Round - 2014
ETA: 2019
Baseball America Ranking: 20
MLB Pipeline Ranking: 22
Considered a future 20/20 player. Injuries has derailed his early career. His value is with his speed and defense. He is the 5th best OF in the Brewers system.Last edited by Councilmann_Jamm; 06-28-2017, 04:52 PM.Comment
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Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread
Are you asking how much he is worth, or are you trying to acquire him?
He's not worth anything until he puts up some numbers. Doesn't matter how talented he is if he's always hurt.
If you want him on your team, tell us what team you control.
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Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread
Are the Brewers contending? What's their incentive to trade away a prospect? Or do you just want him because you like him? He's 21 in A ball so he isn't really close to being ready
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