MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

What about these

Trade with Braves:
Sonny Gray for Albies/Acuna, Joey Wentz, & Alex Jackson

Trade with Yankees:
Sonny Gray and Yonder Alonso for Frazier, Andujar, & Sheffield

I think you can bump Wentz up to Fried or Gohara

And I think that's too light for Gray and Alonso if we're going by real life Alonso who is raking. Switch Andujar to Mateo and add in an arm like Clarkin on top of Sheffield

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Hasn't this thread decided that Gray and Quintana are of similar value? Acuna as a 55 FV hitter is worth 38MM and Soroka as a 50 FV pitcher is worth 14MM. That adds up to 52MM which is light.

Robles is a 60FV worth 60MM by himself.

Maybe you are taking recent events in real life into account whereas I am thinking of rosters that are based off of times before this season started?

I agree though, to an extent. Albies would have to be the headliner. Acuna or Allard are not enough.

I'm a Braves fan and I frequent TalkingChop and I can tell you there would be a riot if they traded that much for Gray.

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[DarionC14]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Hey guys, I remember seeing a trade value chart (i.e an allstar player with A potential is worth an A prospect and two mid B prospects) a couple years back in this thread but haven't been able to find it since then. Maybe I just missed it while searching but if anyone could let me know where to find it or post the link in a reply that would be great thanks.

[rtwilli4]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

I'm a Braves fan and I frequent TalkingChop and I can tell you there would be a riot if they traded that much for Gray.

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It would be a Riot if they trade ANYTHING for Gray! Best case scenario he stays healthy and the Braves make a post season push in 2019 and then he walks.

I'd rather wait a year or two and see how the kids do before trying to add MLB pieces.




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[rtwilli4]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

What about these



Trade with Braves:

Sonny Gray for Albies/Acuna, Joey Wentz, & Alex Jackson



Trade with Yankees:

Sonny Gray and Yonder Alonso for Frazier, Andujar, & Sheffield

I agree with Gamecocks, it's gotta be Albies and Fried. A's want guys who can contribute very soon.

Not that this is realistic anyways, but the Braves are high on Jackson and think he was mis-used in Seattle. Plus they don't have many catcher prospects in the system.

Either way, I don't think it would happen. Braves FO is going to stay the course and aren't ready to give away any of their prospects unless it's for a star who's inked through 2020. Gray is neither of those things.





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[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Hey guys, I remember seeing a trade value chart (i.e an allstar player with A potential is worth an A prospect and two mid B prospects) a couple years back in this thread but haven't been able to find it since then. Maybe I just missed it while searching but if anyone could let me know where to find it or post the link in a reply that would be great thanks.

That list isn't a thing anymore

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[rjackson]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

I'm a Braves fan and I frequent TalkingChop and I can tell you there would be a riot if they traded that much for Gray.

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The fact is that you either give up a 60FV or two 55FV players with one being a pitcher and the other not being a pitcher or the A's don't do it. If he is playing as the A's (which we don't even know) or Gray is not back to 2015 levels (which we don't know), or their is too much doubt in our speculation of what the Braves would do with such an offer, then it isn't realistic.

It would be a Riot if they trade ANYTHING for Gray!

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Do you realize that Gray's peripherals show that he is back and he is putting up another 3+WAR year?

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

The fact is that you either give up a 60FV or two 55FV players with one being a pitcher and the other not being a pitcher or the A's don't do it. If he is playing as the A's (which we don't even know) or Gray is not back to 2015 levels (which we don't know), or their is too much doubt in our speculation of what the Braves would do with such an offer, then it isn't realistic.

Do you realize that Gray's peripherals show that he is back and he is putting up another 3+WAR year?

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#SeTq3maKqTOmWWix.97

Take a look at the midseason list for this year on Baseball America. Notice who's at #10 and #23 and #25 and #33. There's no way Gray gets two players in the top 33. He can get one of them, and then another from the next 5 players the Braves have in the top 100

I'm fully aware of Grays peripherals. And that he will get a raise in arb the next two years and provide less surplus as he goes.
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[rjackson]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minor...maKqTOmWWix.97

Take a look at the midseason list for this year on Baseball America. Notice who's at #10 and #23 and #25 and #33. There's no way Gray gets two players in the top 33. He can get one of them, and then another from the next 5 players the Braves have in the top 100

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I saw that yesterday but I'm not going to look again. That's a midseason list and entirely irrelevant. Seriously, who cares? Is it based on whose closest to the majors? Ceiling? FV? Does it even state it or does BA historically lean towards one?


Why does Acuna leapfrog so many from preseason? Because he is figuring out his hit tool a little quicker than expected? That doesn't change his FV. If you consider him a 60 instead of a 55 like many debate, that is an entirely different thing.


A midseason list means it doesn't have the previous #3 who graduated off of the beginning of season list and the #13 has moved up to top 10. Just because Ian Happ is in the majors and Candelario moves up a spot on the Cubs list doesn't mean Candelario is suddenly a better player or that his stock went up. Candelario is still a 45 or 50FV player, it didn't change.


FV is always going to be a better measure of value than even a list based on FV because then there is a significant drop from #3 to #13 and again to #33. This reflects how much more valuable a 60FV is than a 55FV. A 60FV is on another tier than a 55. Why? Because historically, 60's have a much better success rate and more productive careers in MLB than the 55's. On the list, the 55's can all get grouped together and it doesn't really matter what order you put them in.


All this is to say that if X is the 60FV and hitter named Y, Allard, Soroka are all 55FV, then X is the headliner OR you have to include Y plus one of Allard/Soroka/any other 55FV pitcher to get the equal value of 1 60FV hitter.


So, who is the 60 FV guy? Maybe you don't really value Gray and Quintana the same? I know that I don't.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

I saw that yesterday but I'm not going to look again. That's a midseason list and entirely irrelevant. Seriously, who cares? Is it based on whose closest to the majors? Ceiling? FV? Does it even state it or does BA historically lean towards one?


Why does Acuna leapfrog so many from preseason? Because he is figuring out his hit tool a little quicker than expected? That doesn't change his FV. If you consider him a 60 instead of a 55 like many debate, that is an entirely different thing.


A midseason list means it doesn't have the previous #3 who graduated off of the beginning of season list and the #13 has moved up to top 10. Just because Ian Happ is in the majors and Candelario moves up a spot on the Cubs list doesn't mean Candelario is suddenly a better player or that his stock went up. Candelario is still a 45 or 50FV player, it didn't change.


FV is always going to be a better measure of value than even a list based on FV because then there is a significant drop from #3 to #13 and again to #33. This reflects how much more valuable a 60FV is than a 55FV. A 60FV is on another tier than a 55. Why? Because historically, 60's have a much better success rate and more productive careers in MLB than the 55's. On the list, the 55's can all get grouped together and it doesn't really matter what order you put them in.


All this is to say that if X is the 60FV and hitter named Y, Allard, Soroka are all 55FV, then X is the headliner OR you have to include Y plus one of Allard/Soroka/any other 55FV pitcher to get the equal value of 1 60FV hitter.


So, who is the 60 FV guy? Maybe you don't really value Gray and Quintana the same? I know that I don't.

It's relevant because you want to use current Sonny Gray stats. You can either use preseason lists and Grays value prior to this season, or his value now with the rebound and current midseason lists.

I kind of thought that was common sense. Same reasons you won't see anyone on here treating Aaron Judge like a piece that could be traded or Cody Bellinger

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[rjackson]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

It's relevant because you want to use current Sonny Gray stats. You can either use preseason lists and Grays value prior to this season, or his value now with the rebound and current midseason lists.

I kind of thought that was common sense. Same reasons you won't see anyone on here treating Aaron Judge like a piece that could be traded or Cody Bellinger

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Like talking to a wall. Prospect lists themselves are what is irrelevant! Whatever. I'm dropping it.
PS Gray's stats was to RT and his comment about the IRL Braves trading for Gray. Stats are not the same as prospect lists. It's like saying Obama wearing women's underwear makes Curt Schilling's opinions relevant to global economics.

[disk]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Prospect lists are nice and all but the difference between #21 (Kopech) and #72 (Strahm) is minimal (going off of fangraphs pre-season list) both 55 FV guys, but one is 21 and the other 72 because of the nature of lists.

If your looking for a solid return from the Braves for Gray I'd look at the most recent big SP trade which to me would be the Sale trade. At the time he was traded Sale had $100-$125M in surplus value (probably gone up based on his performance thus far this year). The White Sox got Moncada (70 FV $107M) + Kopech (55 FV $22M) which gets you to $129 M in value, add in Basabe (40 FV >$11M) and Diaz who is a fringe prospect and you've got a decent return for a Cy Young candidate.

Now Sonny Gray is not close to the talent Chris Sale is and the way he pitched last year makes things a little more difficult. But if he is going to be a 3+ WAR pitcher again, and it looks like it, he's a pretty valuable pitcher plus he's under team control until 2020. I haven't come across a surplus value for Gray and don't really want to do the math right now but I think you could assume he's close to Quintana at $80-$100M. To me that means the A's ask for Albies (60 FV $60M) + a 55 FV (Probably a pitcher so $22M) + a 40-45 hitter ($11M) and a fringe guy. Whatever gets them more than $80M value but not much more than $100M depending on who else is bidding.

This is totally based on fangraphs stuff and if you use some other sites/scouts evaluations you could get completely different results.

[rtwilli4]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

The fact is that you either give up a 60FV or two 55FV players with one being a pitcher and the other not being a pitcher or the A's don't do it. If he is playing as the A's (which we don't even know) or Gray is not back to 2015 levels (which we don't know), or their is too much doubt in our speculation of what the Braves would do with such an offer, then it isn't realistic.

Do you realize that Gray's peripherals show that he is back and he is putting up another 3+WAR year?

We probably value Gray similarly but my point is that I don't think he holds value for the Braves at this time. Maybe if they had taken a chance on him last winter... hindsight is always 20/20.

But his value is at its highest right now and I see no reason for a team like the Braves to be buyers at the trade deadline. Even if they had a chance for the wild card, I still don't think that's worth giving up what it would take to get Gray.

Quintana or Archer, it's a different story. More controllable years, no arbitration, and both more reliable in my opinion.




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[BZito75]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Since the Nationals bullpen is in shambles, would this be a viable deal?

doolittle & montas
for
joe ross

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Like talking to a wall. Prospect lists themselves are what is irrelevant! Whatever. I'm dropping it.
PS Gray's stats was to RT and his comment about the IRL Braves trading for Gray. Stats are not the same as prospect lists. It's like saying Obama wearing women's underwear makes Curt Schilling's opinions relevant to global economics.