MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

I wouldn't trade Rosario + Conforto for Marte straight up, let alone adding Wheeler in.

Marte has 5 years and $48.5 remaining. He's been worth 12.7 WAR over the past 4 years. So a 4.2 WAR average. Surplus wise it will be a very large number.

5 (seasons of control) x 4.2 WAR (I'm using that average because I'm on mobile and it's easier) x $10 ( we've commonly used this value for 1 WAR) = $210 million - $48.5 = $161.5 in surplus value.

Rosario is worth $70 million. That still leaves $91 million to go. Even if we also say 5 years of Conforto is worth another $70 there's still $21 million left. Wheeler is already into Arbitration and is a FA after 2019. He's missed the past 2 years so I think saying he's worth between $20 and $30 million is fair.

It's fine if you wouldn't do the trade, but I didn't just pull names out of a hat, Marte is very valuable and it would take big time young talent to get him on his cheap contract especially considering the OP is using a world where he was never suspended.

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[Knickerbocker]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Marte has 5 years and $48.5 remaining. He's been worth 12.7 WAR over the past 4 years. So a 4.2 WAR average. Surplus wise it will be a very large number.

5 (seasons of control) x 4.2 WAR (I'm using that average because I'm on mobile and it's easier) x $10 ( we've commonly used this value for 1 WAR) = $210 million - $48.5 = $161.5 in surplus value.

Rosario is worth $70 million. That still leaves $91 million to go. Even if we also say 5 years of Conforto is worth another $70 there's still $21 million left. Wheeler is already into Arbitration and is a FA after 2019. He's missed the past 2 years so I think saying he's worth between $20 and $30 million is fair.

It's fine if you wouldn't do the trade, but I didn't just pull names out of a hat, Marte is very valuable and it would take big time young talent to get him on his cheap contract especially considering the OP is using a world where he was never suspended.

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Thanks for the in depth explanation. Now its quite the conundrum. The other trade id pull the trigger immediately since I have Gsellman quite ready so wheeler and lagares are quite expendable.

What about Rossario, Wheeler and Riveira for Salvador Perez?

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

I'm about two weeks away from the trade deadline and I've yet to make a move with my Cubs. Partly due to the fact that I'm waiting to see what they do in real life. However, I think I'm going to hit the trade deadline before they make a move and I'm still in desperate need of a lefty reliever as well as a starting pitcher. With Jake Arrieta and John Lackey most likely gone after the season and uncertainty in the fifth spot the only two pitchers written in pen for the rotation for 2018 are Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks.

And Lester's declining. By next year I'm not sure I'd consider him a true ace. So, basically I'm coming to the realization that I need a top-of-the-rotation pitcher and I'm not going to be able to get one for nothing.

I've posted before who I think might work but the latest rumors around Gerrit Cole have me interested in him. I've played around with some trades in the game and here are a few that the computer is willing to accept.

Gerrit Cole for:

1. Javier Baez, straight up.

2. Two of the following: Ian Happ, Albert Almora Jr., and Eloy Jiminez.

3. Albert Almora Jr., Jeimer Candelario, and Oscar de la Cruz.

I'd be most inclined to pull the trigger on the third option.

Yeah I don't think you're paying enough. He's in division and an ace level pitcher.

This quote is from one of the MLBTradeRumors chat this week

"What kind of return can the Buccos get for Cole?"

"An enormous one. King's ransom style. Look at what the Phillies got in return for Hamels a few years ago. Granted, Hamels had 3.5 years of control plus an option, but Cole is younger and vastly more affordable. He'd bring back multiple top 50 prospects and/or a young MLB-ready asset or two. There's not a team in baseball that can't afford him and there's no team that he wouldn't make better."

[Scott]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Based on the current season, what kind of return do you think Texas could get for Darvish?

[Gagnon39]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Yeah I don't think you're paying enough. He's in division and an ace level pitcher.



This quote is from one of the MLBTradeRumors chat this week



"What kind of return can the Buccos get for Cole?"



"An enormous one. King's ransom style. Look at what the Phillies got in return for Hamels a few years ago. Granted, Hamels had 3.5 years of control plus an option, but Cole is younger and vastly more affordable. He'd bring back multiple top 50 prospects and/or a young MLB-ready asset or two. There's not a team in baseball that can't afford him and there's no team that he wouldn't make better."

That's why I don't think my third option is realistic.

I think I definitely need to give up either Happ or Jiminez (both A prospects) along with one of my top pitching prospects (either de la Cruz or Cease) both B prospects, along with a current MLB player.

Example:

Jiminez, de la Cruz, and Baez.


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[The Left Shark]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

That's why I don't think my third option is realistic.

I think I definitely need to give up either Happ or Jiminez (both A prospects) along with one of my top pitching prospects (either de la Cruz or Cease) both B prospects, along with a current MLB player.

Example:

Jiminez, de la Cruz, and Baez.

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There's definitely a tax on trading within division. I think you gotta deal Happ and Jimenez to make it worth Pit's time.

[CKW11]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

There's definitely a tax on trading within division. I think you gotta deal Happ and Jimenez to make it worth Pit's time.

Agreed, I think Cole to the Cubs starts with Jimenez + Happ + Baez

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Based on the current season, what kind of return do you think Texas could get for Darvish?

Just a bit less than the Price deadline deal. So a prospect around #50 if he's a position guy or around #35ish if he's a pitcher. Plus some non ranked guys

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[Gagnon39]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

There's definitely a tax on trading within division. I think you gotta deal Happ and Jimenez to make it worth Pit's time.

If that's the case I just can't do it.

Jiminez is a top 50 prospect (A), and de la Cruz is a B rated prospect. Along with Baez, that's a pretty good haul. I'd throw in a fourth prospect as well. But I'm not dealing my top two prospects.


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[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

If that's the case I just can't do it.

Jiminez is a top 50 prospect (A), and de la Cruz is a B rated prospect. Along with Baez, that's a pretty good haul. I'd throw in a fourth prospect as well. But I'm not dealing my top two prospects.


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If you won't trade them then you can't get an ace with control through 2019 from your own division

[Gagnon39]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

If you won't trade them then you can't get an ace with control through 2019 from your own division

Not saying I disagree but at the same time I think that my offer is very reasonable.

Baez is a young, A potential player who can play multiple positions. Jiminez is the Cubs top prospect (also A potential), Cease or Cruz are both young B potential prospects and good options to eventually become top of the rotation guys. Throw in another prospect and that's a pretty serious haul.


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[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Not saying I disagree but at the same time I think that my offer is very reasonable.

Baez is a young, A potential player who can play multiple positions. Jiminez is the Cubs top prospect (also A potential), Cease or Cruz are both young B potential prospects and good options to eventually become top of the rotation guys. Throw in another prospect and that's a pretty serious haul.


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B potential pitchers don't become top of the rotation guys. But teams don't like trading within their own division. They really don't like giving a rival an ace. Because of that you have to overpay. And since you feel like its fair that means its probably not quite there. Javier Baez has never had even a 100 wRC+ over parts of 4 seasons. He just doesn't have the shine he used to when he was a prospect coming up. He's like a 2 WAR player because of his defense and versatility but he isn't this huge get. Jimenez would be a nice get, but to get the Pirates ace it has to really hurt.

To get Cole in division it would look similar to the Chris Sale trade. Cole isn't quite as good, but he has been a mid 5 WAR pitcher and its to a rival.

The package you listed has a value for the prospects of
Jimenez $60
de La Cruz $14

and then figuring out what Baez is.

If the Yankees offered Torres alone that's already basically the same as Jimenez and de La Cruz. The second piece they offered up could easily be worth the same.

You can do the trade if you want, but it really should hurt you to make the move. You have to move guys you don't want to in order to get pitchers like Gerrit Cole

Look at it this way. If the Pirates are going to help you go back-to-back and win another World Series in 2017 and be set up well in 2018 and 2019 they want you to hate yourself every time you have to go against the guys you traded in 2020 and beyond.

[hampshirestags]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Not saying I disagree but at the same time I think that my offer is very reasonable.

Baez is a young, A potential player who can play multiple positions. Jiminez is the Cubs top prospect (also A potential), Cease or Cruz are both young B potential prospects and good options to eventually become top of the rotation guys. Throw in another prospect and that's a pretty serious haul.


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A few weeks ago when this first starting hitting the radar, a hypothetical package in a vacuum (Heyman, maybe?) from NYY consisted of Montgomery/Torres/Frazier/+.

Now include 8-10 teams (including some non-playoff teams) all vying for a young ace with team control (and first crack at an extension) and CHC is coming in with an equivalent package for a guy PIT can ship to the AL and never see again. You're going to have to blow the doors off the closest offer. The Cubs/Pirates did business in '09 with J.Harrison, there is a relationship there and I'm not saying it can't be done...but it's going to have to hurt, bad.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

A few weeks ago when this first starting hitting the radar, a hypothetical package in a vacuum (Heyman, maybe?) from NYY consisted of Montgomery/Torres/Frazier/+.

Now include 8-10 teams (including some non-playoff teams) all vying for a young ace with team control (and first crack at an extension) and CHC is coming in with an equivalent package for a guy PIT can ship to the AL and never see again. You're going to have to blow the doors off the closest offer. The Cubs/Pirates did business in '09 with J.Harrison, there is a relationship there and I'm not saying it can't be done...but it's going to have to hurt, bad.

And just to hammer this home, Torres is seen as superior to Jimenez. Frazier is seen as superior to Happ. And Montgomery is superior to de La Cruz since a guy producing in the majors is always seen as a better asset then a non top-100 pitcher in A ball

[Hardworker33]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

I posted not long time ago if I should upgrade on 3B with my Braves. I decided to stay path to start my 2nd season (platoon between Kaleb Coward & Rio Ruiz). Also, I just lost Ruiz for 1-2 months

Still very early in my second season (currently 12-7) and just saw Brewers have put Jonathan Villar on the trade block. I'd like to use him as my everyday 3B eventually (don't want to trade for him now as it's unrealistic since the season just began). He's not doing well now, for what it is worth, with .223/1HR/5 RBIs.

If Brewers are out and I'm in the race for playoffs, does it sound like a fair deal:

Ian Anderson
Sean Newcomb
Sanders Cummings


Thanks!