MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

[whbaseball51121]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

"as you did with Ryu and the Indians starters"

Innings Pitched in 2017
Kluber- 132.2IP
Carrasco- 138.2IP
Salazar- 77.2 IP
Bauer- 120.1 IP
Tomlin- 110.1 IP
Clevinger- 80.0 IP
&
Ryu- 96.2 IP

So this isn't me playing with the numbers and abusing Ryu having less innings. He is right around all of them, and has more innings than two of the Indians starters with better WARs.

As far as Barraclough goes we have his 2016 which was 72.2 innings of excellence. We have the rest of his career, 70.1 innings of mehh. His recent stint of 46.1 IP has been pretty bad. He walks too manny batters. You can get away with it when you strike everyone out, as you saw in his 2016, and any Bettances season, but if he isn't even striking out 10 guys per 9IP then his atrocious walk rate is a negative. You can't put him out there late in a game if he's just going to walk everyone.

You're also ignoring the ability of Miller to go out in October and pitch 2 to 3 inning stints of straight filth.

In 2016 and 2017 Kyle Barraclough made 122 appearances and threw 119 innings

In 2016 and 2017 Andrew Miller made 116 appearances and threw 128.1 innings. So even regular season Miller shows the ability to throw more innings per appearance.

We can also compare the 2 WAR Miller has in 54 innings to the 0.3 WAR that Barraclough has in 46.1 innings. The fact is that KB is a substantial drop off from Andrew Miller. Since you're so hellbent on including 2016 you're comparing 2.4 WAR of KB to 5 WAR of Andrew Miller. Miller has literally been more than twice as valuable as Barraclough over the past two seasons. There's no way to shake it. Miller is just so much better and no team would jump up and down to trade for KB like the Indians and many others did to obtain Miller at the 2016 trade deadline

Again you're ignoring that in the OP's franchise Ryu is coming off 200 innings of 1.15 whip and 3.25 ish ERA ball and would be their number three. Also, teams lined up in part because they got Miller for 2+ years, not just one. Great as Miller is, it's one season of a elite reliever for four of a good one, an immeadiate if short lived rotation upgrade, and a good prospect. So while Miller is twice as valuable as KB in the short term, KB is controllable for four times as long and isn't the only piece headed back. Look at the actual trades I posted above. It's in line with the actual market values for elite relievers, but is constructed in a way to help the Indians stay competitive in 18 and beyond. Miller's obviously awesome and very valuable but he's still a reliever on the wrong side of 30 with only a year of control left. Having him around helps their chance to win the WS next year, but so does Ryu and KB and a deeper farm system would help their chances for the next four plus years.

You can choose to ignore the way the market and actual front offices have valued similar players in real life as well as the situation that the trade would hypothetically be occurring in and that's fine. I'm not sure what kind of package you think would be fair but given actual recent trades and the situation in which the trade would be happening, this deal is a pretty fair deal that is sensible for both sides. And also, yes, having solid MLB talent controlled for four years does help to extend a window, as does having extra prospect capital to move or develop.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Again you're ignoring that in the OP's franchise Ryu is coming off 200 innings of 1.15 whip and 3.25 ish ERA ball and would be their number three. Also, teams lined up in part because they got Miller for 2+ years, not just one. Great as Miller is, it's one season of a elite reliever for four of a good one, an immeadiate if short lived rotation upgrade, and a good prospect. So while Miller is twice as valuable as KB in the short term, KB is controllable for four times as long and isn't the only piece headed back. Look at the actual trades I posted above. It's in line with the actual market values for elite relievers, but is constructed in a way to help the Indians stay competitive in 18 and beyond. Miller's obviously awesome and very valuable but he's still a reliever on the wrong side of 30 with only a year of control left. Having him around helps their chance to win the WS next year, but so does Ryu and KB and a deeper farm system would help their chances for the next four plus years.

You can choose to ignore the way the market and actual front offices have valued similar players in real life as well as the situation that the trade would hypothetically be occurring in and that's fine. I'm not sure what kind of package you think would be fair but given actual recent trades and the situation in which the trade would be happening, this deal is a pretty fair deal that is sensible for both sides. And also, yes, having solid MLB talent controlled for four years does help to extend a window, as does having extra prospect capital to move or develop.

"You can choose to ignore the way the market and actual front offices have valued similar players in real life as well as the situation that the trade would hypothetically be occurring in and that's fine."

I don't think I'm the one ignoring how front offices have acted. Elite players get traded for elite prospect packages and they don't get traded by teams that intend to compete for a World Series right away. Can you give any examples of a deal like this? The closest would be the Cespedes for Lester deal, but both of those players were elite.

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[wkmyers62]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

He's also asking OAK to take on salary and would have to beat NYY's offer, so a larger return would indeed be warranted. I said Gohara instead of Maitan as an option and never mentioned Anderson in that deal so idk why you did. He's giving up better prospects here because he's only giving up two impact prospects as opposed to the three NYY gave up and adding a decent almost MLB ready prospect to about even out the value. The last piece would be there to incentivize OAK to eat 8-10 million on Colon/Garcia and is a backend top 30 guy.

The problem is that still leaves Acuna in and there is no way that the Braves would do any deal that involved Acuna for Gray. If it's mid season they would only be taking on about $5M for Garcia so it's not a huge amount of money even for OAK. If you're looking for realism and OAK asked for Acuna in any package then Coppy would just hang up the phone and rightly so. If you leave Garcia in then yes the Braves give up a slightly better package than the Yankees, but not Acuna. Anderson, Gohara, and Maitan are all Top 100 so I'd start with 2 of those and add another slightly lower prospect on top and you're already much better than the Yankees package without giving up Acuna.

[whbaseball51121]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

"You can choose to ignore the way the market and actual front offices have valued similar players in real life as well as the situation that the trade would hypothetically be occurring in and that's fine."

I don't think I'm the one ignoring how front offices have acted. Elite players get traded for elite prospect packages and they don't get traded by teams that intend to compete for a World Series right away. Can you give any examples of a deal like this? The closest would be the Cespedes for Lester deal, but both of those players were elite.

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I said how they've valued similar players, not necessarily how they've acted. Carson Smith for Wade Miley and Roenis Elias is a recent move that involved a very good reliever for a mid to back end SP and a bullpen downgrade for a potential contender. Thornburg got dealt for a non-elite package with an MLB player as the key. Those two aren't elite but certainly aren't bad either. Wade Davis got dealt for an MLB player, not prospects for a team with contending aspirations. Teams have added and subtracted at the same time while balancing contending now and in the future. Look at what the Pirates have done the last couple years, although not necessarily in the same deal. Off the top of my head I can't think of an exact match but my point is that MLB front offices have valued players like Ryu and KB combined with the prospect added in roughly the same as multiple years of elite RP, so giving that same type of value for one year of an elite RP would be an overpay value-wise but necessary to incentivize the Indians to make a deal. Fans wouldn't be happy, but it would improve the long term outlook while not crippling the the short term one. It might hurt their WS chances next year but would improve them in the future.

[whbaseball51121]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

The problem is that still leaves Acuna in and there is no way that the Braves would do any deal that involved Acuna for Gray. If it's mid season they would only be taking on about $5M for Garcia so it's not a huge amount of money even for OAK. If you're looking for realism and OAK asked for Acuna in any package then Coppy would just hang up the phone and rightly so. If you leave Garcia in then yes the Braves give up a slightly better package than the Yankees, but not Acuna. Anderson, Gohara, and Maitan are all Top 100 so I'd start with 2 of those and add another slightly lower prospect on top and you're already much better than the Yankees package without giving up Acuna.

Eh after looking at it again I think you're right. I will point out that all three of the NYY guys were borderline Top 100 prospects, but I agree that Maitan, Gohara, and a third good not great prospect plus a lottery ticket could work. Maybe like Demeritte as the third piece?

[wkmyers62]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Eh after looking at it again I think you're right. I will point out that all three of the NYY guys were borderline Top 100 prospects, but I agree that Maitan, Gohara, and a third good not great prospect plus a lottery ticket could work. Maybe like Demeritte as the third piece?

Yea I think Demeritte gets it done, or Austin Riley. Or if they don't mind him being a little further away maybe Pache. I know Pache and Riley are both rated higher than Demeritte but I'd be ok with including one of them.

[whbaseball51121]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Yea I think Demeritte gets it done, or Austin Riley. Or if they don't mind him being a little further away maybe Pache. I know Pache and Riley are both rated higher than Demeritte but I'd be ok with including one of them.

Had those two on my radar as well although I wasn't quite sure how highly you regarded Pache. Glad we could reach agreement on a good package. I'm personally higher than most on Kap and Fowler but you're right in that Acuna is too much so thanks for that catch!

[UNDERTAKER1215]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Ok, so getting back to the starter seeking deals, what would it take to get Robbie Erlin and one of Ryan Buchter and Carter Capps. Brad Hand would be a nice get as well, but only if he doesn't cost a significant return.



Robbie Erlin -0-2, 5 GS, 28.2 IP, 24 K, 3 BB, 3.14 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

Ryan Buchter - 2-0, 29.1 IP, 45 K, 15 BB, 2.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Carter Capps - 1-0, 24.2 IP, 24 K, 14 BB, 1.09 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Brad Hand - 4-3, 55.0 IP, 57 K, 28 BB, 3.93 ERA, 1.45 WHIP



I'm not sure of Erlin's value as he is a former top prospect that has somewhat flamed out, thanks in large part to injuries. With up-and-coming starters like Nix, Quantrill, Espinoza, Morejon, and Paddack, Erlin wouldn't setback the deep rebuild the Padres are in.



I was thinking of something centered around Josh Ockimey and C.J. Chatham. I could also throw in someone like Roenis Elias who can work from both the rotation and bullpen.

If there are any other under the radar/former top prospect types like Erlin, I'm all ears.

whbaseball51121, not sure if you caught this previously.


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[whbaseball51121]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

whbaseball51121, not sure if you caught this previously.


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So Hand would probably be pretty expensive, it sounds like maybe comparable to Justin Wilson or more is what they were asking. He'd be the most costly of the the group. Capps is a hard one to value, although he'd be rather costly as well given how he's bounced back in game. He'd probably be more expensive than Buchter and is less controlled so he might be a worse fit. I'd mainly look at Buchter and Erlin, especially since Buchter balances out a righty heavy pen for you. Let me think about a comparable-ish deal and get back to you. Ockimey and Chatham sounds in the ballpark but I'll think about it a bit.

After further thought, this sounds good based on the Harrell/Alvarez deal last year and the Buchter/Maurer/Cahill deal this year. I think Chatham is a similar value player as Demeritte, but Erlin and a Buchter are better pieces than Harrell and Alvarez so bumping to the two you want would probably add Ockimey to even if out. Seems relatively in line with the KC/SD deal by value too.

[BlueJays09]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Looking to deal some of my expiring contracts and I would like to deal Bautista. What value could I get back from a contender looking for some power (either starting or bench). This year he is batting .206/.315/.361 with 9 HR and 23 RBI in 238 AB's (-.07 WAR) as he was injured earlier in the year.



Teams contending who could want a RF/DH are Giants, Tigers, Astros



Also, I noticed that Nate Eovaldi is in AAA with a brutal 1-2 6.17 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 30K. He started with the Rays to a 2.99 ERA and 1.21 WHIP from the bullpen (84 innings), but has been demoted and is angry. I would like to obtain him as I am rotating minor leaguers at the moment and could use someone to finish out the year with with a possibly of re-signing him next year if he works out.



So two questions are: 1) What could I get for Bautista? 2) What would the Rays want for Eovaldi?

Think this was lost in the good debate. Any input would be greatly appreciated.


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[whbaseball51121]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Think this was lost in the good debate. Any input would be greatly appreciated.


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I don't think Eovaldi would cost much coming off injury and scuffling in AAA. I think a C/C+ prospect would get it done. They might want one of the C prospects, so if you'd be willing to give up one of McGuire, Pentecost, or Jansen gets it done. If you think that's too much, really any C prospect would do it I think. As far as Bautista, he'd have limited value due to injury, underperformance and cost, so I think a fringe prospect at best would be the return. Pretty much anyone in the 25-30 org range from those teams based on what Jay Bruce just netted, Steve Pearce last year and Kendrys Morales in 14. If you take back a bad contract you could get a better return.

[BlueJays09]

MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

I don't think Eovaldi would cost much coming off injury and scuffling in AAA. I think a C/C+ prospect would get it done. They might want one of the C prospects, so if you'd be willing to give up one of McGuire, Pentecost, or Jansen gets it done. If you think that's too much, really any C prospect would do it I think. As far as Bautista, he'd have limited value due to injury, underperformance and cost, so I think a fringe prospect at best would be the return. Pretty much anyone in the 25-30 org range from those teams based on what Jay Bruce just netted, Steve Pearce last year and Kendrys Morales in 14. If you take back a bad contract you could get a better return.

Thanks a lot. I'll have a look at the teams who would be a fit for Bautista and see if there is a bad contract I would take back. If I take back a bad contract could I get a top 20-25 prospect rather than 25-30?

McGuire is a B prospect, but is appearing more of a defensive catcher so I don't mind parting with him. If I throw them McGuire could I get back Eovaldi + something else? If not I'll throw Jansen for Eovaldi.

Thanks again for your input!


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[jeterboy12]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Trade Finder system is so broken it's unreal.

I started a Blue Jays franchise with plans to start from scratch and only keep Stroman, Sanchez, and Osuna at the big league level. So I plug Donaldson into the trade finder only to find the San Diego Padres with this proposed trade:

Jays Get: Mackenzie Gore, Josh Naylor & Cal Quantril
Padres Get: Donaldson

Further, after putting Bautista, Estrada and Happ into the TF I got an offer from the Phillies:

Jays Get: Maikel Franco, Aaron Nola and J.P. Crawford
Phillies Get: Bautista, Estrada and Happ

The TF better be completely overhauled in 18.

[whbaseball51121]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Thanks a lot. I'll have a look at the teams who would be a fit for Bautista and see if there is a bad contract I would take back. If I take back a bad contract could I get a top 20-25 prospect rather than 25-30?

McGuire is a B prospect, but is appearing more of a defensive catcher so I don't mind parting with him. If I throw them McGuire could I get back Eovaldi + something else? If not I'll throw Jansen for Eovaldi.

Thanks again for your input!


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No problem man! Enjoy doing it. I'm not sure the difference between the two catchers would be significant enough to get you much more than like a fringe bullpen arm. Maybe a guy like Kolarek, Schultz, or Kittredge. Up to you if that's worth it for you, and yeah if you take a bad contract then that'd probably bump you to the 20-25/C prospect range.

[BlueJays09]

MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

No problem man! Enjoy doing it. I'm not sure the difference between the two catchers would be significant enough to get you much more than like a fringe bullpen arm. Maybe a guy like Kolarek, Schultz, or Kittredge. Up to you if that's worth it for you, and yeah if you take a bad contract then that'd probably bump you to the 20-25/C prospect range.

Edit: I am looking at Bautista + JP Howell or Barney for Anibal Sanchez + Jose Azocar (20th prospect) + Arvincent Perez (30th)

Or

Bautista (plus Barney if required) for Miguel Gomez (24th rated prospect) + flier

Or

Bautista + Howell or Barney for Morton (4.5 mil salary in AAA - 5.89 ERA in 109IP before demotion) + Jandal Gustave (29th) + Miguelangel Sierra (28th)

These look good??


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