2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

[G3no_11]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

By the way, if you are debating about any values and want help, feel free to PM.

Everyone knows I love CarGo and would do some awkward things with him... but I really think he needs a little bit of a boost on the spreadsheet lol. Even though you give up 3 B's and a C for him, I feel like that is a total steal for the type of player he is and a player who generally stays healthy and in his prime. Maybe he is worth the High B + Mid B + Low B + High C, but it would definitely take more to pry him from Colorado.

What do you guys think? Obviously this is a very biased view but I thought I'd ask.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Everyone knows I love CarGo and would do some awkward things with him... but I really think he needs a little bit of a boost on the spreadsheet lol. Even though you give up 3 B's and a C for him, I feel like that is a total steal for the type of player he is and a player who generally stays healthy and in his prime. Maybe he is worth the High B + Mid B + Low B + High C, but it would definitely take more to pry him from Colorado.

What do you guys think? Obviously this is a very biased view but I thought I'd ask.

I think the current value is reasonable given his home/road splits. Once another team drives him off the lot so to speak, they lose 100 points of OPS.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I kinda want to lower him to a Low F just to screw with you.

Geno, The mean batting average on balls in play for 2013 among qualified hitters is .304. Carlos Gonzalez's batting average on balls in play for 2013 is .364. If traded to a lower run environment, it is obviously likely he will regress to the mean.

The mean home run to fly ball ratio for 2013 is 11.75% among those same players. Gonzalez is not only demonstrating a higher than average (by a sizable margin) HR/FB% at 25.3%, he's also increased his HR/FB% by about 6% from 2012, and is deviating by around the same % from his career mean. This is fairly obviously unsustainable.

Would you like me to regress him to a .304 BABIP and an 11.75% HR/FB? The results probably won't be pretty and it'll show you why we're so low on CarGo. I'd be more than happy to do so showing my process.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I think the current value is reasonable given his home/road splits. Once another team drives him off the lot so to speak, they lose 100 points of OPS.

He has a higher BABIP/wRC+/everything away this season, for whatever reason. It's peculiar, but his numbers are extremely unsustainable regardless.

[Deuce2223]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Everyone knows I love CarGo and would do some awkward things with him... but I really think he needs a little bit of a boost on the spreadsheet lol. Even though you give up 3 B's and a C for him, I feel like that is a total steal for the type of player he is and a player who generally stays healthy and in his prime. Maybe he is worth the High B + Mid B + Low B + High C, but it would definitely take more to pry him from Colorado.

What do you guys think? Obviously this is a very biased view but I thought I'd ask.

Trust me we all know your love for CarGo. Still say they would take Paxton/Hultzen,Ramirez,Bevan, Smoak or Saunders for him.

However I will argue with you (on your side) on the road vs home stat thing. His 2013 #'s are better on the road.

<table class="tablehead" border="0" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3"><tbody><tr class="oddrow"><td width="115">Home</td><td class="textright">140</td><td class="textright">31</td><td class="textright">39</td><td class="textright">7</td><td class="textright">6</td><td class="textright">8</td><td class="textright">32</td><td class="textright">20</td><td class="textright">0</td><td class="textright">39</td><td class="textright">10</td><td class="textright">1</td><td class="textright">.279</td><td class="textright">.364</td><td class="textright">.586</td><td class="textright">.950</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td width="115">Away</td><td class="textright">115</td><td class="textright">23</td><td class="textright">40</td><td class="textright">7</td><td class="textright">0</td><td class="textright">11</td><td class="textright">21</td><td class="textright">13</td><td class="textright">0</td><td class="textright">34</td><td class="textright">3</td><td class="textright">0</td><td class="textright">.348</td><td class="textright">.414</td><td class="textright">.696</td><td class="textright">1.110


</td></tr></tbody></table>

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

He has a higher BABIP/wRC+/everything away this season, for whatever reason. It's peculiar, but his numbers are extremely unsustainable regardless.

Shall I locate the small sample size vid? I agree the current numbers are VERY unsustainable. .414 BABIP away from Coors? lol

Career Home: 1401 PA, .331/.391/.607/.997, .370 BABIP, 73 HR

Career Away: 1279 PA, .267/.323/.447/.772, .325 BABIP, 45 HR

Now who is the GM who's emptying the farm to get a slightly above average player away from Coors on a 4 year $63M left on his contract?

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Geno, I'm going to regress CarGo's numbers to the league mean.

So, I'll start off doing the basic thing. Carlos Gonzalez has hit 75 fly balls this season, and 19 of them have resulted in home runs. That's a 25.3% rate according to fangraphs (it's rounded). So, what if 11.75% of those fly balls resulted in home runs?

75 * .1175 = ~9 home runs. That's half or so of his current homers. Ouch. Fairly standard math.

Now, BABIP regression. Since BABIP = (H - HR) / (AB - K - HR + SF), all we have to do is manipulate the formula and solve for hits: H = BABIP (AB - K - HR + SF) + HR = 0.304 (255 - 73 - 9 + 2) = 53.2. This would give him about 53 hits in 255 at bats. Remember, HR = 9 because of the HR/FB% regression. So yeah, 53 hits in 255 ABs in about a .208 AVG. With 9 home runs. Basic triple crown numbers, yeah, and a quite conservative regression at that. I am doing this by the book. (no not Tango's book.) A more realistic BABIP for him is about .320 and a more realistic HR/FB is about 14%. I am just regressing to league averages. I would probably put him at about a .250 average and 10ish homers. But even with those numbers, I'd argue that my spreadsheet values are actually quite fair, if not an overpay.

[G3no_11]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Geno, I'm going to regress CarGo's numbers to the league mean.

So, I'll start off doing the basic thing. Carlos Gonzalez has hit 75 fly balls this season, and 19 of them have resulted in home runs. That's a 25.3% rate according to fangraphs (it's rounded). So, what if 11.75% of those fly balls resulted in home runs?

75 * .1175 = ~9 home runs. That's half or so of his current homers. Ouch. Fairly standard math.

Now, BABIP regression. Since BABIP = (H - HR) / (AB - K - HR + SF), all we have to do is manipulate the formula and solve for hits: H = BABIP (AB - K - HR + SF) + HR = 0.304 (255 - 73 - 9 + 2) = 53.2. This would give him about 53 hits in 255 at bats. Remember, HR = 9 because of the HR/FB% regression. So yeah, 53 hits in 255 ABs in about a .208 AVG. With 9 home runs. Basic triple crown numbers, yeah, and a quite conservative regression at that. I am doing this by the book. (no not Tango's book.) A more realistic BABIP for him is about .320 and a more realistic HR/FB is about 14%. I am just regressing to league averages. I would probably put him at about a .250 average and 10ish homers. But even with those numbers, I'd argue that my spreadsheet values are actually quite fair, if not an overpay.

That's a very interesting breakdown. But you are just regressing to the league average due to him playing in Coors Field correct? If that is the case, I feel like that is a little bit too extreme. Maybe if you left his road stats and only regressed his home stats to league average? I mean heck, he's hit 11 HR's just on the road this year so is it really fair to drop him down to .208/9 HRs because he plays in Coors?

Maybe I am taking it the wrong way. I only ask about CarGo because it bugs me to see him at that price. Even though you give up a decent amount to get him, who wouldn't give up 3 B's and a C for CarGo in the game? You know what I mean?

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

That's a very interesting breakdown. But you are just regressing to the league average due to him playing in Coors Field correct? If that is the case, I feel like that is a little bit too extreme. Maybe if you left his road stats and only regressed his home stats to league average? I mean heck, he's hit 11 HR's just on the road this year so is it really fair to drop him down to .208/9 HRs because he plays in Coors?

Maybe I am taking it the wrong way. I only ask about CarGo because it bugs me to see him at that price. Even though you give up a decent amount to get him, who wouldn't give up 3 B's and a C for CarGo in the game? You know what I mean?

No, I didn't regress due to unsustainable home/road splits, I regressed because of all around unsustainable numbers. Has nothing to do with H/R.

[KingFry]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

That's a very interesting breakdown. But you are just regressing to the league average due to him playing in Coors Field correct? If that is the case, I feel like that is a little bit too extreme. Maybe if you left his road stats and only regressed his home stats to league average? I mean heck, he's hit 11 HR's just on the road this year so is it really fair to drop him down to .208/9 HRs because he plays in Coors?

Maybe I am taking it the wrong way. I only ask about CarGo because it bugs me to see him at that price. Even though you give up a decent amount to get him, who wouldn't give up 3 B's and a C for CarGo in the game? You know what I mean?

I think the spreadsheet value is fine, and AC is being a little extreme with his regressions. Just my opinion. CarGo may play at Coors, but he can hit okay, I don't think he'll be batting .200 anytime soon. Spreadsheet value is FINE.

[Bluejaysfan65]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

So... After taking a look (and using) the new spreadsheet, I've come up with a couple of potential deals with contenders with J.A. Happ. The spreadsheet said two high Cs for him so that's what I went with.

Scenerio 1: Washington

Spoiler

Washington is in a tight battle for the division lead with Atlanta at the moment so I was thinking that maybe they could use some lefty pitching. I was thinking of something like Nathan Karns (2-1, 3.25 ERA in 27.2 IP in AAA) and Ryan Perry (1.17 ERA, 0.65 WHIP in 7.2 innings pitched in AAA) from Washington for Happ.

Scenerio 2: Los Angeles

Spoiler

Los Angeles (2.5 GB) is also in a battle with (surprisingly) Seattle and Texas so I was thinking that maybe something like Mark Trumbo (.233 AVG, .310 OBP, 6 HR, 19 K) for J.A. Happ and Brad Lincoln (1-0, 0.61 ERA, 21 K in 14.2 IP out of the bullpen).

Scenario 3: Texas

Spoiler

Texas (2.5 GB) is in the same situation as the Angels and need some starting pitching due to injuries. I think something like Robbie Ross (4.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) and Josh Lindblom (0-2, 2.13 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in AAA) for Happ and maybe someone else would be possible given their pitching depth in the minors at the relief pitcher role.

Scenario 4: Detroit

Spoiler

The Tigers are leading their division by 2.5 games and I figured that they needed a lefty with all the righties the have in their rotation. Casey Crosby (1-4, 6.75 ERA, 1.76 WHIP in AAA) and Quintin Berry (.393 AVG, .452 OBP, 2 HR, 84 AB in AAA) for Happ (and possibly someone else).

Out of all these deals, I like the Angels and Rangers trades the most followed by the Tigers and Nationals. Which deal would be the most likely and most fair deal?

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

#2 and #3 are kinda bad.

I really like #1 and #4, though.

[Bluejaysfan65]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

#2 and #3 are kinda bad.

I really like #1 and #4, though.

Are #2 and #3 bad because of realism or are they bad because of fairness?

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Are #2 and #3 bad because of realism or are they bad because of fairness?

Both.

10char

[Bluejaysfan65]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Both.

10char

Two questions: Is there anyway that I can get Trumbo from the Angels for a deal involving J.A. Happ? Secondly, out of choices one and four, which one is the most beneficial to me?