2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

[rjackson]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

EDIT: I'm not trying to bash anyone's opinions or the spreadsheet. But it could be beneficial to discuss.

The spreadsheet is very helpful and not the point of my discussion--I was just presenting my point of view with all objectivity meaning I was pointing out my own bias. It (the spreadsheet) definitely helps when I think that someone is worth more than they really are...it keeps me in line. I consider all the teams potentially involved to see what bidding war would/could develop though and limit my trades to IRL peak times. For the bidding war, an extreme example would be what LAA gave up for 2 months of Greinke last year...

Sorry to derail the thread, though. Wilhemsen could help those pens in the same way Soriano helps the WAS pen--pushes the weaker pitchers to lower leverage situations. I think that you could push his value up just a tad from what the spreadsheet says if ALL of those teams would see a fit for him. Ryan is nothing more that a defensive replacement, though, which is weird to me because I like his swing. He just can't produce. If there was a team IRL who would have taken him, he'd been gone by now imo.

[nowitsourtime]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Ryan is batting below .200

Crosby is 8-2 in AAA with a 4.83 ERA, Ortega is 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in 13 IP in AA.

So that might work, however the more I look at my team OF would be another option at the AA/AAA level so what about S. Moya (59 C) but rated #11 in the Tigers Top-20.

I'm not sure about subbing in Moya because of the fact that Ryan is batting below the Mendoza line.

I'd still say Crosby and Ortega is the highest they'd go

[G3no_11]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Per the Cargo discussion. I think that he is slightly undervalued on the spreadsheet. I would say High B, High B, mid B for Cargo because he still can do quite a few things well. I would have a hard time giving up an A due to the Coors factor still though.

And this is kind of my point. Around the league, other teams, GM's ect.. might think in this view. But CarGo does perform for the Rockies at a level that would make the Rockies require an A in return. Even though you would have a hard time giving up an A, doesn't mean the Rockies wouldn't ask for an A. Which translates to how difficult it would be to pry CarGo from Colorado.

[G3no_11]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Okay so let's pretend we change it to a A.

My issue with your trade was the realism factor. And my view of Smoak being trash is a big part of that.

Value wise, it wasn't bad.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I asked this earlier, but then the spreadsheet discussion started an then the CarGo debate.


What team would be a good fit for SS B. Ryan IRL (in real life) in my Franchise I am thinking the Tigers, because they don't really have a decent MLB backup MI. but was wondering what other teams might be a good fit.

Spreadsheet says 2 C prospects. (mid and low) I believe. I am looking to get back SP/RP.


Also thinking about trading T. Wilhemsen. He has 30 saves and a 3.31 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and a BA of .210 combined in 32 IP (just went 4/4) in my past 4 games, but I dealt for G. Perkins from the Twins and have Capps in waiting.

Teams that could use CP help down in the playoff run is Milwaukee (Axford 2-3 34 saves but 5.19 ERA) St Louis (Motte 2-2 29 saves 3.00 ERA), Dodgers (League 24 saves 2.22 ERA), Giants (Romo 0-4 27 saves 4.07 ERA) Tampa Bay (Rodney 0-2 27 saves 3.67 ERA), Bluejays (Janseen 0-2 28 saves 3.45 ERA) Tigers (B. Rondon 2-4 21 saves 3.20 ERA, J. Valverde 3-4 3.68 16 saves) KC (Holland 24 saves 3.91)


Thank you in advance for any help

I don't think Ryan carries more than ptbnl/cash value right now actually. Any team that needs a backup, glove-only SS can just pull one out of AAA or sign a retread UFA without giving up prospects. The Tigers have Peralta, Infante, and Ramon Santiago, and those guys are all better than Ryan.

Okay so let's pretend we change it to a A.

Now lets say I give you J. Smoak (79 A), SP E. Ramirez (85 B), SP J. Paxton (79 B), and IF J. Marder (72 B) for Gonzalez, and you will still tell me it's unfair. Heck I would even throw in CF M. Saunders (77 A) or A. Either (88B) to replace Ramirez because he has already been traded there, and my guess is you will still say it's unfair.

Just so you know I did trade Ramirez to the Rockies in my thread for EY JR and C Lars Davis and so far he is 4-0 for them. EY is batting leadoff for me and (only .257 but does have 29 SB's which I need.).

Also Smoak in my Franchise is batting .277 with 14 HR but you go off on the argument that he sucks, and before you say the Rockies don't need SP, (well you might believe that IRL, they obviously don't because they drafted Gray over Moran,) they do on the game. All of the Rockies SP pitch like crap in sim games. Oswalt is the current #1 at 9-3 3.54 and Ramirez is the #2 at 5-2 2.84 ERA but the rest of the staff look like this

De La Rosa 3-9 5.49
J. Chacin 4-11 5.57
C. Friedrich 4-7 5.56
J. Nicasio 3-2 4.85
J. Francis 4-6 4.02

AAA
D. Pomeranz 8-8 4.42
C. Volstad 3-6 4.38
T. Matzek 4-2 4.78
T. Anderson 6-6 4.46
R. Scahill 5-4 5.27
T. Chatwood 6-5 5.06

AA
E. Butler their #1, 5-8 5.11 ERA

Also for more fun stats. T Helton is batting .267 with 7 HR and Gonzo's stats are .297 18 HR 63 RBI.

This is on July 30th in my Franchise.

Problem with Smoak as your A is that it's a SCEA potential in place of what the spreadsheet says. The spreadsheet is a better judge. Roster makers have probably knocked Smoak's potential down in roster sets, cause he's not an A. Replace Smoak with Taijuan Walker or Danny Hultzen and you probably have a deal.

Not sure if you dealt Montero already (I think you traded him to Detroit though), but the Rockies might be interested in him to play 1B.

I do think CarGo to Seattle is a nice idea as kind of a consolation prize for missing out on J-Up, and a bargain compared to Stanton.

I'm actually thinking about sending CarGo to Seattle in my 'chise too, if their records hold.

I'm thinking about Walker/Hultzen + Ackley + Beavan/Ramirez/Iwakuma + Pegeuro for CarGo.

And this is kind of my point. Around the league, other teams, GM's ect.. might think in this view. But CarGo does perform for the Rockies at a level that would make the Rockies require an A in return. Even though you would have a hard time giving up an A, doesn't mean the Rockies wouldn't ask for an A. Which translates to how difficult it would be to pry CarGo from Colorado.

Yeah, I'll agree that to the Rockies CarGo has more than spreadsheet value. The problem is that to other teams, CarGo has mediocre stats and a large contract...so spreadsheet value is fair.

I agree with you guys that this discrepancy throws a monkey wrench into trade talks, and it would be difficult to agree on a price since CarGo gives COL more value than they'd get back in a trade. But if the Rockies suck *** in someone's 'chise (like a repeat of last season) I could see them dealing Cargo for 80 cents on the dollar.

Personally, if it were me trading for him, I'd probably pay a bit more than spreadsheet value to "make it hurt" a bit more, but that's true of any major deal and me being a masochist about it.

What I can't see, though, is people turning a blind eye to the fact his OPS is 200 points higher at Coors over 1000+ PA. CarGo is not *elite* for that reason. He's a toolsy, fringe All Star candidate playing anywhere else. He, like all other Rockies hitters, are made better by their environment.

On an unrelated note, I just want to see Stanton play in Denver, Imagine the moonshots.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

OK, I did the first trade of my 2014 season with the Stros. I went a head with the Dee Gordon + George Kottaras to the Twins for Chris Herrmann + Pedro Hernandez. A pretty minor deal to start off with.

[KingFry]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

OK, I did the first trade of my 2014 season with the Stros. I went a head with the Dee Gordon + George Kottaras to the Twins for Chris Herrmann + Pedro Hernandez. A pretty minor deal to start off with.

Seems pretty fair/realistic

This Cargo argument is still going on? AHH!

[rjackson]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Why not? it is a fun debate.

Mediocre stats? OPS is a gateway stat and that Coors elephant is overstated. Fact-his OPS+ for his career is like 125 DESPITE playing at Coors. OPS+ is weighted and park affect are negatively included. His career wOBA is like .380. A season of .400 is elite. These are anything but mediocre.

PS Larry Walker should be in the HoF!!!
PPS I really liked that masochist line!

[KingFry]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Why not? it is a fun debate.

Mediocre stats? OPS is a gateway stat and that Coors elephant is overstated. Fact-his OPS+ for his career is like 125 DESPITE playing at Coors. OPS+ is weighted and park affect are negatively included. His career wOBA is like .380. A season of .400 is elite. These are anything but mediocre.

PS Larry Walker should be in the HoF!!!
PPS I really liked that masochist line!

It all started with Geno's crush on Cargo.... I just feel like the spreadsheet value is fine.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Wait... Did I just make a decent trade proposal?!?!?! Anyways, which deal is the better one:

They're both pretty equal. It's pick your poison.

You can't regress BABIP to the mean because you are then assuming that CarGo or any other person you do this with is going to have average barrelling/line drive skills. If you regressed Joey Votto to BABIP mean, you'll be assuming that he is much worse than he actually is because his BABIP is known to be high due to his skill level at this point.

No where did I say it was luck, I said it was UNSUSTAINABLE. There is a HUGE difference, as the only ones who can maintain a ~350+ BABIP outside of Coors are Votto and Trout like guys. I specifically, I even bolded it, stated that I was just regressing him to the league mean and that it was extremely conservative in his regression. I stated a .320 BABIP was more likely for CarGo, which is like a full standard deviation from what I did. What I did was show that he's not some .330 average 30+ home run hitter than warrants an A, and honestly, I would take 3 B's over one low A in this case. If you guys want to change it to one Low A, I'm game.

I hate when BABIP is referred to as strictly luck.

This is a strawman you've built, though, as there's a difference to unsustainability and luck.

ZiPS tries to measure true skill level as does PECOTA etc, take a look at those updated numbers for proper regression. Plus, the work is already done for you.

I do not have access to PECOTA numbers, but I'm like 800000% sure that ZiPS is park/run evironment adjusted.

As far as CarGo himself goes, regardless of stats or that Coors stigma that still gets slapped on people, he is a player that I would feel like I'm stealing from them for that value.

Go look at some of the other players I have for 3 B's. It's not a low price, it's 3 high quality prospects.

The guy has power and speed.

Debatable.

As the opposing battery, you don't want to put him on because it is too easy for him to get into scoring position but if you pitch to him...that could be worse. That combination is just so valuable. The other 3 "tools" are not as important as those 2 put together, EVER.

I must admit, I was pretty surprised when I looked up his speed score. Never knew he was that fast.

Honestly though, I could not see COL trading him even in a losing year for even Profar, maybe Taveras

what is this I don't even

Even if trading CarGo was in the team's best interest, GMs are motivated by securing their own jobs and not the team's interests in the long run (generally speaking). That would indicate my value on him.

You're letting intangibles and outside effects affect your values too much. This is at least 85% based on a player's performance.

I will put this caveat on it, however. I've always felt that the spreadsheet undervalued players for reasons such as this. I could look at some players and think yeah, that's current value in the eyes of the fans and league...but the team with his rights would not give them up for that--that's what I mean by undervalued, that gap. I try to look at what it would realistically take to get them as the value.

And that's why we have the notes section.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Did I just see a 35 like? You got anything to say on this, 35? Could use your opinion.

[TheNumber35]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Did I just see a 35 like? You got anything to say on this, 35? Could use your opinion.

You did lol. Recall that I gave up some nice prospects for CarGo in the last season in my Astros franchise on MLB 12? I gave up prospects that were similar to the current spreadsheet value...and let me tell you it hurt to give up McCullers, Tropeano,and DeShields. Especially McCullers and Tropeano. Trop was my best pitching prospect in my season, McCullers was #3 rated pitching prospect, and we all know how DeShields is probably going to be a really solid player. I think after the potential email boosts and such I ended up giving up 2 high B's and a low B. While CarGo was good for me when I got him back in that deal, I think had I continued that franchise past 2013, Colorado would have come away like bandits. Those three prospects (if developed) would have been so much more valuable to them imo than CarGo ever would have been.

I think that CarGo's vaule to other teams is hurt by his career home/away splits, and while his stats look really nice this season...you made a really good point about unsustainable numbers. a HR/FB of around 25% is almost impossible to sustain and the fact is that you cannot assume he'll sustain those numbers over the course of a season, or two. Having said that, I think Colorado values CarGo more than everyone else in the league and thus he may take more to pry away from the Rockies than that. But, teams would be weary to give up more than the value you've listed because of all the reasons you have given. At the end of the day, it's a standoff and someone would have to give in...and if the Rockies were in the position where they'd want to deal him, and they were deadset on doing so, they would have to cave in and take value like the spreadsheet says. Mainly because of the contract and the Coors effect

[Bluejaysfan65]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

After thinking about the Lindblom and Pirates deals, I think that I no longer want Lindblom but would like Jeff Baker as well as Justin Wilson. I was thinking of a three team trade like this:

Toronto gets: Justin Wilson, Jeff Baker, Robinson Chirinos/Justin Miller (leaning towards Miller)
Texas gets: Jordy Mercer, Luis Perez and/or Moises Sierra
Pittsburgh gets: J.A. Happ

What do you guys think about this?

[Totte]

After thinking about the Lindblom and Pirates deals, I think that I no longer want Lindblom but would like Jeff Baker as well as Justin Wilson. I was thinking of a three team trade like this:

Toronto gets: Justin Wilson, Jeff Baker, Robinson Chirinos/Justin Miller (leaning towards Miller)
Texas gets: Jordy Mercer, Luis Perez and/or Moises Sierra
Pittsburgh gets: J.A. Happ

What do you guys think about this?

Sounds like a plan to me

[Bluejaysfan65]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Sounds like a plan to me

So of Sierra and Perez, who should I send to Texas?