2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

[CameRoN0407]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Actually, since I don't think they'd platoon the two, and I really like the idea of Justin Grimm, how's this for a three way trade?

To the Rangers: J.P. Arencibia, Darren Oliver, Chris Heisey
To the Reds: Daniel Murphy, Anthony Alford, Geovanni Soto
To the Blue Jays: Ryan Hanigan, Justin Grimm

What do you think of that? The Rangers get the platoon advantage I talked about earlier while clearing out a spot for a top prospect (Kinsler to LF, Profar to 2B), a solid LOOGY who loves Texas so much that he's a whiny little bitch about it, and a nice bat off the bench.

The Reds get a solid LF to replace Heisey - hell, he's a significant upgrade on Heisey - to go along with a superb OF prospect in Alford and a very underrated back-up catcher to provide insurance / tutoring to Mesoraco.

The Blue Jays get pitch-framing, catcher-defense extraordinaire Ryan Hanigan, who I don't hate with a passion, who can kinda hit and will uplift my pitching staff (for whatever reason there IS a hidden game calling attribute, this was discussed last year and JPA has a good one too I think, Soto probably as well). I also get the young, almost ready depth pitcher I wanted in Justin Grimm.

Everyone okay with this?

Fair, it looks pretty good to me.

[geisterhome]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Morneau would be more realistic, and I actually really like the idea of Morneau. What team are you again?

Royals, it would be a trade inside the same division. What do you think?

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Royals, it would be a trade inside the same division. What do you think?

You'd probably have to pony up a bit more. What about Dwyer + Smith?

[nowitsourtime]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Actually, since I don't think they'd platoon the two, and I really like the idea of Justin Grimm, how's this for a three way trade?

To the Rangers: J.P. Arencibia, Darren Oliver, Chris Heisey
To the Reds: Daniel Murphy, Anthony Alford, Geovanni Soto
To the Blue Jays: Ryan Hanigan, Justin Grimm

What do you think of that? The Rangers get the platoon advantage I talked about earlier while clearing out a spot for a top prospect (Kinsler to LF, Profar to 2B), a solid LOOGY who loves Texas so much that he's a whiny little bitch about it, and a nice bat off the bench.

The Reds get a solid LF to replace Heisey - hell, he's a significant upgrade on Heisey - to go along with a superb OF prospect in Alford and a very underrated back-up catcher to provide insurance / tutoring to Mesoraco.

The Blue Jays get pitch-framing, catcher-defense extraordinaire Ryan Hanigan, who I don't hate with a passion, who can kinda hit and will uplift my pitching staff (for whatever reason there IS a hidden game calling attribute, this was discussed last year and JPA has a good one too I think, Soto probably as well). I also get the young, almost ready depth pitcher I wanted in Justin Grimm.

Everyone okay with this?

Rangers are getting the short end of the straw here. Oliver would be good for a year sure, but he's never going to hold that much value. They traded Murphy for Heisey, who you yourself admitted was a downgrade. And JP Arencibia does not actually give them that much of a significant platoon advantage over what Soto would've offered.

Just going off career stats, Arencibia has had a triple slash line of .236/.272/.452 with a 92 WRC+ vs. Lefties. Soto has had a TS line of .286/.383/.486 with a 130 WRC+ vs lefties.

Soto is pretty underrated when it comes to hitting lefties.

What I would do is give the Rangers Alford instead of Oliver or just someone with more value than Oliver to even out the trade.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Rangers are getting the short end of the straw here. Oliver would be good for a year sure, but he's never going to hold that much value. They traded Murphy for Heisey, who you yourself admitted was a downgrade. And JP Arencibia does not actually give them that much of a significant platoon advantage over what Soto would've offered.

Just going off career stats, Arencibia has had a triple slash line of .236/.272/.452 with a 92 WRC+ vs. Lefties. Soto has had a TS line of .286/.383/.486 with a 130 WRC+ vs lefties.

Soto is pretty underrated when it comes to hitting lefties.

What I would do is give the Rangers Alford instead of Oliver or just someone with more value than Oliver to even out the trade.

Okay, first, he has a BABIP about .60 points higher vs LHP than he does vs RHP, you can't just throw out random unregressed splits. A regression on JPA isn't as necessary, though, because there's only a 12 point BABIP difference. I can regress Soto's vsLHP if you want but I think my point is clear.

Second, yes, they're downgrading in LF, but do you really think the difference between Oliver (solid loogy) + Heisey and Murphy is really equal to Alford? A pitcher like Chad Jenkins or someone being thrown in would be fine, just a useful piece, but not Alford. Murphy's had one slightly-BABIP-fueled, slightly-above-average season that was also influenced by defensive metrics that are somewhat inconsistent. According to baseball reference, who's defensive statistics I trust more, Murphy has never had a positive dWAR. He's a 4th OF that can start if necessary, like Reed Johnson. He's only that much of an upgrade because Chris Heisey really shouldn't be starting.

[nowitsourtime]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Okay, first, he has a BABIP about .60 points higher vs LHP than he does vs RHP, you can't just throw out random unregressed splits. A regression on JPA isn't as necessary, though, because there's only a 12 point BABIP difference. I can regress Soto's vsLHP if you want but I think my point is clear.

Second, yes, they're downgrading in LF, but do you really think the difference between Oliver (solid loogy) + Heisey and Murphy is really equal to Alford? A pitcher like Chad Jenkins or someone being thrown in would be fine, just a useful piece, but not Alford. Murphy's had one slightly-BABIP-fueled, slightly-above-average season that was also influenced by defensive metrics that are somewhat inconsistent. According to baseball reference, who's defensive statistics I trust more, Murphy has never had a positive dWAR. He's a 4th OF that can start if necessary, like Reed Johnson. He's only that much of an upgrade because Chris Heisey really shouldn't be starting.

Sure you can regress their splits but it's not like I'm cherrypicking a specific sample size, that's their career line. Soto all around probably makes more solid contact vs lefty pitchers than righty pitchers because he's better at hitting them. Plus Soto is much better behind the plate than Arencibia is so Texas is losing that advantage when they platoon as well.

Murphy is still better than Heisey. They're both defensively unsound but I was never saying that Murphy was some defensive whiz.Oliver is a good LOOGY but is a aging LOOGY, a catcher who can't offer as much of a platoon advantage over the one they're giving up and a downgrade in the OF worth them giving up Justin Grimm in the process?

It just seems they're not getting enough talent for giving up a solid B prospect along in the trade.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Sure you can regress their splits but it's not like I'm cherrypicking a specific sample size, that's their career line. Soto all around probably makes more solid contact vs lefty pitchers than righty pitchers because he's better at hitting them. Plus Soto is much better behind the plate than Arencibia is so Texas is losing that advantage when they platoon as well.

Murphy is still better than Heisey. They're both defensively unsound but I was never saying that Murphy was some defensive whiz.Oliver is a good LOOGY but is a aging LOOGY, a catcher who can't offer as much of a platoon advantage over the one they're giving up and a downgrade in the OF worth them giving up Justin Grimm in the process?

It just seems they're not getting enough talent for giving up a solid B prospect along in the trade.

1683 PA is not enough for BABIP to stabilize. And I don't really trust anything says 'probably' lol.

Some recent trades involving relievers near the deadline:

Spoiler

Marlins acquire Cox for Mujica
Phillies acquire Lindblom for Victorino
Cardinals acquire a lot of relievers for Rasmus
Rangers acquire Adams for Erlin and Wieland
Rangers acquire Uehara for Davis and Hunter
Twins acquire Capps for Ramos
Dodgers acquire Dotel for McDonald and Lambo
Diamondbacks acquire Bell for Young
Red Sox acquire Gagne for David Murphy (lol)
Blue Jays acquire Francisco for Napoli

Relievers are viewed as valuable assets to contending teams, and it's pretty bad to think Oliver wouldn't have at least a decent amount of value. Also, Murphy's wRC+ is 11 points higher than Heisey's, that's not a huge split. I'd say JPA = Grimm, Oliver = Murphy, and Jenkins + Heisey = Soto.

[12]

14-18 in my Mariners' franchise... Looking to ship Kendrys Morales out and let Montero DH... Looking for an upgrade in LF because Bay and Ibanez are terrible... Gutierrez is on the 60 Day DL.

Really like the idea of trading for Travis Snider. Anything that works with sending Morales to Pittsburgh? Willing to package one of Franklin/Miller/Romero with Morales to really beef the deal up, any ideas here guys?

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Holy crap that's way too much for Snider.

[nowitsourtime]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

1683 PA is not enough for BABIP to stabilize. And I don't really trust anything says 'probably' lol.

Some recent trades involving relievers near the deadline:

Spoiler

Marlins acquire Cox for Mujica
Phillies acquire Lindblom for Victorino
Cardinals acquire a lot of relievers for Rasmus
Rangers acquire Adams for Erlin and Wieland
Rangers acquire Uehara for Davis and Hunter
Twins acquire Capps for Ramos
Dodgers acquire Dotel for McDonald and Lambo
Diamondbacks acquire Bell for Young
Red Sox acquire Gagne for David Murphy (lol)
Blue Jays acquire Francisco for Napoli

Relievers are viewed as valuable assets to contending teams, and it's pretty bad to think Oliver wouldn't have at least a decent amount of value. Also, Murphy's wRC+ is 11 points higher than Heisey's, that's not a huge split. I'd say JPA = Grimm, Oliver = Murphy, and Jenkins + Heisey = Soto.

I say probably because I haven't seen Soto play in person since he was with the Cubs and I saw him play two games vs. the Dbacks. I thought he was hitting the ball better vs lefties than righties but I know I'm not a scout. (And plus I talk really passive aggresive, just ask people that get into an argument with me haha).

Oliver does not nearly contain as much value as some of the relievers on that list you've provided (plus with The Show's regression system, he'll probably regress A LOT by the time the season is done). But thanks for reminding me that the Twins made the Capps-Ramos trade. I just got that awful trade out of my memory bank

I still think Texas is getting the short end of the stick in that trade but it's your call. I'm simply stating my opinion like you asked.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I say probably because I haven't seen Soto play in person since he was with the Cubs and I saw him play two games vs. the Dbacks. I thought he was hitting the ball better vs lefties than righties but I know I'm not a scout. (And plus I talk really passive aggresive, just ask people that get into an argument with me haha).

Oliver does not nearly contain as much value as some of the relievers on that list you've provided (plus with The Show's regression system, he'll probably regress A LOT by the time the season is done). But thanks for reminding me that the Twins made the Capps-Ramos trade. I just got that awful trade out of my memory bank

I still think Texas is getting the short end of the stick in that trade but it's your call. I'm simply stating my opinion like you asked.

2 games isn't quite an adequate sample.

If Octavio Dotel + Marc Rzepczynski (holy crap I think I got that right) = Colby Rasmus, why doesn't Oliver = Murphy?

I know, and I'm arguing lol.

[nowitsourtime]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

2 games isn't quite an adequate sample.

If Octavio Dotel + Marc Rzepczynski (holy crap I think I got that right) = Colby Rasmus, why doesn't Oliver = Murphy?

I know, and I'm arguing lol.

I know two games isn't a good sample, I'm just stating what I saw. He has a higher BABIP than JP to begin with. And there's more than the "luck" explanation to the higher BABIP Soto has faced vs. LHP because he's done it over the course of his entire career.

Edwin Jackson was also sent to STL in that Rasmus trade. Oliver could = Murphy IRL (but would Texas do it while they're think in the OF? Probably not) but in this case I'm thinking of The Show and how much he can regress over the course of the season. Hell I think he's already regressed in my franchise...

[12]

Holy crap that's way too much for Snider.

Not just Snider...

Maybe Marte? Another A prospect? I don't know, just looking for ideas.

It doesn't have to be the Pirates, either...

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I know two games isn't a good sample, I'm just stating what I saw. He has a higher BABIP than JP to begin with. And there's more than the "luck" explanation to the higher BABIP Soto has faced vs. LHP because he's done it over the course of his entire career.

Edwin Jackson was also sent to STL in that Rasmus trade. Oliver could = Murphy IRL (but would Texas do it while they're think in the OF? Probably not) but in this case I'm thinking of The Show and how much he can regress over the course of the season. Hell I think he's already regressed in my franchise...

Who cares who's BABIP is higher? I'm stating the BABIP splits. And he's a 220 pound catcher with a ~20% line drive rate, that's not .330 BABIP like, more like .305.

Jackson was a rental, though, so he's probably about as valuable as a reliever in that situation. The Jays only gave up Frasor (bleh) and Zack Stewart (obvious bust was obvious) for him originally. And Texas' OF is pretty deep. Kinsler? Martin? Gentry? Cruz? That's a solid 4. A Kinsler + Martin/Gentry + Cruz OF would probably be one of the top 10 valuable outfields in the league.

His overall will regress, but that's not a good measure of player ability. I can periodically reup his OVR with his baserunning stats if you think that'd help make the trade more even.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Not just Snider...

Maybe Marte? Another A prospect? I don't know, just looking for ideas.

It doesn't have to be the Pirates, either...

If you want Snider, give them Pryor and Furbush.