MVP/CY/ROY Talk

[55]

Re: MVP/CY/ROY Talk

Posey is clearly the NL Comeback Player of the Year.

[Baseballking888]

Re: MVP/CY/ROY Talk

Posey is clearly the NL Comeback Player of the Year.

Why do I feel so stupid for not even recognizing him?

[franch1se]

Re: MVP/CY/ROY Talk

Chase Headley = Breakout Player of the Year award

If we were in the Playoff hunt he'd have to get some MVP consideration...but we're not

[TheMatrix31]

Re: MVP/CY/ROY Talk

Serious question since I'm not an expert on these advanced statistics. If WAR is used to measure "wins" created or whatever, then why would this statistic matter when analyzing closers? Aren't closers in to close the DEAL on wins?

I don't know. Maybe I'm misunderstanding the use/function of WAR in regards to that, because Kimbrel has been the best reliever in baseball this year and I'd be saying that even if I weren't a Braves fan.

I'd also like to throw in Kris Medlen for Comeback Player of the Year discussion. If he had a full season at starter this year, he'd be the Cy Young winner hands down.

[55]

Re: MVP/CY/ROY Talk

I don't know. Maybe I'm misunderstanding the use/function of WAR.

This.

WAR is a valid stat and measuring stick for all positions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wins_above_replacement

That sums it up very well and more succinctly than I can off the top of my head.

[CabreraMVP]

Re: MVP/CY/ROY Talk

I think Trout will win. Most of the writers favor him while the players/coaches favor Cabrera. And the writers vote, not the players. If Cabrera wins the Triple Crown then it does make things more interesting. I don't believe that should win him the award alone, but for something that hasn't been done in 45 years, I'm sure it will sway some voters. And he hasn't been well below average defensively, he is ranked closer to average than many people think. But defensive metrics aren't very accurate anyway (Jhonny Peralta, Carlos Lee proves this)

Trout MVP, Price Cy Young

But in a fair world, Delmon Young would win MVP and Rick Porcello would win the Cy Young. But it's a cold world...

[TheNumber35]

Re: MVP/CY/ROY Talk

I think Trout will win. Most of the writers favor him while the players/coaches favor Cabrera. And the writers vote, not the players. If Cabrera wins the Triple Crown then it does make things more interesting. I don't believe that should win him the award alone, but for something that hasn't been done in 45 years, I'm sure it will sway some voters. And he hasn't been well below average defensively, he is ranked closer to average than many people think. But defensive metrics aren't very accurate anyway (Jhonny Peralta, Carlos Lee proves this)

Trout MVP, Price Cy Young

But in a fair world, Delmon Young would win MVP and Rick Porcello would win the Cy Young. But it's a cold world...

The top half of that post at least made sense...not that I necessarily agree that Cabby should win the MVP, because Trout's WAR and his overall body of work is incredibly impressive. Anyways, the last sentence is where you lost me.

As for my predictions as to who will win:

AL MVP: Mike Trout
AL Cy Young: David Price
AL ROTY: Mike Trout
AL Manager of the Year: Buck Showalter
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Adam Dunn


NL MVP: Buster Posey
NL Cy Young: Gio Gonzalez
NL ROTY: Bryce Harper
NL Manager of the Year: Davey Johnson
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Buster Posey

[CabreraMVP]

Re: MVP/CY/ROY Talk

Haha I'm just kidding. Delmon is the worst player in baseball and Porcello might be the worst pitcher.

[Jgainsey]

Re: MVP/CY/ROY Talk

Serious question since I'm not an expert on these advanced statistics. If WAR is used to measure "wins" created or whatever, then why would this statistic matter when analyzing closers? Aren't closers in to close the DEAL on wins?

I don't know. Maybe I'm misunderstanding the use/function of WAR in regards to that, because Kimbrel has been the best reliever in baseball this year and I'd be saying that even if I weren't a Braves fan.

I'd also like to throw in Kris Medlen for Comeback Player of the Year discussion. If he had a full season at starter this year, he'd be the Cy Young winner hands down.

Kimbrel's role as a closer really has no bearing on his WAR.

And what does being a closer really entail when evaluating a pitcher? There's is the sort of old school idea that it takes a certain mindset to handle your basic save situation, and there may be some merit to that, but how do you really quantify the dominant persona people project on closing pitchers? Personally, I don't really think you can.. People may point to Save totals, but those are as meaningless as a pitcher's W-L record, IMO.

Anyways, it's helpful to keep in mind that WAR is a counting stat. The more you play, the more chances you have to accrue value as a player. WAR isn't evaluating Kimbrel as a closer, it is evaluating his value above replacement level as a pitcher.

A quick check of Fangraphs shows Kimbrel and Chapman neck and neck for the WAR lead among relief pitchers. They're close, but Kimbrel has been slightly better. Chapman has thrown about 10 more innings than Kimbrel, so his WAR is going to get a boost in that department, but almost every other meaningful stat gives the a slight edge to Kimbrel. Rodney is having a very nice season, but you simply can't put him in the elite group with Kimbrel and Chapman.

It's also important to keep in mind that WAR isn't attempting to be the end all be all of baseball stats. IMO, it does a very good job at evaluating the value of players, but there will always be other stats that can be used to make a more specific argument for any given player.

[Bunselpower32]

Re: MVP/CY/ROY Talk

I am a Cards fan, to begin with. If Trout wins MVP, it will be because of the WAR, which is really good. However, if Trout wins MVP, then there are four other players that should win MVP before Posey. McCutchen means more to his team as far as success goes than does Posey, and Braun's numbers are better. Anyway, Molina is the best catcher in the league, when offense and defense are considered.

I kind of ran on, but the gist is this. If WAR decides one League, it decides the other as well.

[snepp]

Re: MVP/CY/ROY Talk

I am a Cards fan, to begin with. If Trout wins MVP, it will be because of the WAR, which is really good. However, if Trout wins MVP, then there are four other players that should win MVP before Posey. McCutchen means more to his team as far as success goes than does Posey, and Braun's numbers are better. Anyway, Molina is the best catcher in the league, when offense and defense are considered.

I kind of ran on, but the gist is this. If WAR decides one League, it decides the other as well.

You failed to mention something pretty important.

The WAR difference between Trout and Cabrera is awfully large. The WAR difference between a handful of players in the NL is pretty much insignificant.

It's not meant to be taken literally down to the decimal, that's a misusage of the statistic.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: MVP/CY/ROY Talk

I am a Cards fan, to begin with. If Trout wins MVP, it will be because of the WAR, which is really good. However, if Trout wins MVP, then there are four other players that should win MVP before Posey. McCutchen means more to his team as far as success goes than does Posey, and Braun's numbers are better. Anyway, Molina is the best catcher in the league, when offense and defense are considered.

I kind of ran on, but the gist is this. If WAR decides one League, it decides the other as well.

Well, there's a huge difference. Trout is running away with the WAR crown in the AL by 3-4 wins while there's convergence at the top among multiple players in the NL.

I wouldn't use WAR as a sole determiner when the differences are fractional. There are 4-5 legitimate MVP candidates in the NL.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: MVP/CY/ROY Talk

You failed to mention something pretty important.

The WAR difference between Trout and Cabrera is awfully large. The WAR difference between a handful of players in the NL is pretty much insignificant.

It's not meant to be taken literally down to the decimal, that's a misusage of the statistic.

[TheMatrix31]

Re: MVP/CY/ROY Talk

Kimbrel's role as a closer really has no bearing on his WAR.

And what does being a closer really entail when evaluating a pitcher? There's is the sort of old school idea that it takes a certain mindset to handle your basic save situation, and there may be some merit to that, but how do you really quantify the dominant persona people project on closing pitchers? Personally, I don't really think you can.. People may point to Save totals, but those are as meaningless as a pitcher's W-L record, IMO.

Anyways, it's helpful to keep in mind that WAR is a counting stat. The more you play, the more chances you have to accrue value as a player. WAR isn't evaluating Kimbrel as a closer, it is evaluating his value above replacement level as a pitcher.

A quick check of Fangraphs shows Kimbrel and Chapman neck and neck for the WAR lead among relief pitchers. They're close, but Kimbrel has been slightly better. Chapman has thrown about 10 more innings than Kimbrel, so his WAR is going to get a boost in that department, but almost every other meaningful stat gives the a slight edge to Kimbrel. Rodney is having a very nice season, but you simply can't put him in the elite group with Kimbrel and Chapman.

It's also important to keep in mind that WAR isn't attempting to be the end all be all of baseball stats. IMO, it does a very good job at evaluating the value of players, but there will always be other stats that can be used to make a more specific argument for any given player.

Cool. Thanks.

[mgoblue678]

Re: MVP/CY/ROY Talk

Haha I'm just kidding. Delmon is the worst player in baseball and Porcello might be the worst pitcher.

Um, no. Delmon is horrible defensively, and has very little patience at the plate, but his overall offensive numbers aren't anywhere close to worst player in baseball territory. Not when you have guys hitting around .200 on other teams with little power and a similar OBP. As far as Porcello goes there no way he is worst pitcher in the league, not when there are multiple starters across the league on other teams with 5.00+ ERA's. He is actually a decent 4th or 5th starter.

I will agree with you on your previous post when you mentioned Cabrera doing a better job defensively this year than some people realize. He has definatly been sigficantly better than most people thought he would be. At the very least he has been decent, range is a bit lacking, but having the 3rd best fielding percentage among 3rd basemen is certainly something that wasn't expected coming into season. To be honest he has been one the Tiger's most consistent fielders. I have also been surpised by some of the difficult plays he has made, he has definatly done better than just making the ruotine plays like people were hoping for coming into the season. Of course, some people who haven't been watching the Tigers consistently probally just assume he has been bad based on the talk coming into the season.

As far as the MVP goes, I honestly think it might be a race that comes down to a couple of votes. Trout's base stealing ability and defense can't be discounted. At the end of the day it is going to come down to what individual voters value the most, whether it be sabermetric stats like WAR that clearly favor Trout or the Triple Crown should Cabera end up winning it. I think there will be somewhat of split in that regard. I won't be upset if Trout get's it because I feel both guys are deserving, and have had unbelievable years. At the end of the day it doesn't matter too much as it an award that benefits one individual, not the fans or rest of the team like a WS title.