MLB Off-Topic

[Amoo316]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Diaz had a 3.9 WPA (Win Probability added) vs Bard's 4.3. That would have played a big factor.

ERA+ which factors in ballpark factor was in favor of Diaz 297 to Bard's 262.

Most of their advanced numbers are fairly similar. Diaz obviously gets more strikeouts but balls in play went to Bard by over .100 points. Bard also had a better Ground Ball to Fly Ball ratio.

You can pick out spots both pitchers were better then the other but one plays for a NY team with a lot of eyes in a division race the other plays in COL in a hitters ballpark. Advanced metrics say they weren't that different except in how they got their outs.

EDIT: gmLI is the "leverage situation stat" Bard led there 2.05 to Diaz's 1.61. 1.00 is average. This stat is kinda cool because it takes into account getting a save against 7, 8, 9 batters vs 2, 3, 4. Essentially it means Bard had harder outings than Diaz.

[Blzer]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Paging Blzer...

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Unfortunately, I'm not a big WAR guy.

Not that I'm not a fan, but I wouldn't know enough to say.

[steelerfan]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Unfortunately, I'm not a big WAR guy.



Not that I'm not a fan, but I wouldn't know enough to say.

Understood. I just thought you could take a look at the formulas and clear up which factor was making the bWAR and fWAR come out so differently in this scenario.

No worries. I guess we should just be content in knowing that there is a number that will support our narratives no matter what we're trying to push. [emoji2960]

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[Blzer]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Understood. I just thought you could take a look at the formulas and clear up which factor was making the bWAR and fWAR come out so differently in this scenario.

No worries. I guess we should just be content in knowing that there is a number that will support our narratives no matter what we're trying to push. [emoji2960]

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I suppose I could.

Why did I think that WAR was a black box formula, though? Meaning it is proprietary for the organization that uses it and isn't available for others? Maybe I'm thinking of another formula.

[Speedy]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Unfortunately, I'm not a big WAR guy.

Not that I'm not a fan, but I wouldn't know enough to say.

Blzer.

Gotta say...I'm disappointed.

[Blzer]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Blzer.



Gotta say...I'm disappointed.

Never been a big sabermetrics head from an analysis perspective. I appreciate hearing/reading others talk about them, but if I can't use something while coaching softball I often don't end up maximizing its use overall. I do more of the physics side of things, or numbers I conjure up on my own. Haha.

Looks like someone got to it before me anyway.

[Amoo316]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

I'm not a huge sabermetrics guy either, but WAR has become common enough (it's even on the back of cards now), that I think people look at WAR like it's the end all be all of advanced stats. That's simply not the case.

WAR, ERA+, OPS+, oWAR, dWAR....etc.

I think the Bard vs Diaz discussion was a perfect example. By the numbers, technically Bard was a better pitcher than Diaz this past season. Not by much, but by a VERY VERY small margin.



In today's game would you rather have a closer missing bats or a closer inducing ground balls, who happened to face tougher batters? That was the difference between the two if you dig into the advanced numbers. WAR said Bard was better, I think most of us would take Diaz.

There's a reason Baseball reference has that Hall of Fame monitor at the bottom of their page. WAR is a factor for their chances of getting in, but so are other factors.

Take Andruw Jones with Career WAR of 62.7. 60 WAR is that, "ok this guys is a likely HOFer". Not always. His 7 year peak is above your average HOFer, his WAR over 162 is slightly below a HOFer. He's a tweener. I personally happen to think the 10 straight gold gloves and the almost decade he was the best defensive player in the game SHOULD get him in.

Average WAR for a CF HOFer is 71.6 out of 19th. His 62.7 would put him 11th.

.254 Average 434 HRs 1933 Hits 111 OPS+, none of those are Hall of Fame Career Numbers. Without his 24.4 dWAR he only has 39.8 oWAR.

WAR is a cool stat, and gives us a way to measure players against each other across generations, but there are a lot of ways to generate + or - WAR. You have to dig into the numbers and see why to really know and if the ways aren't ones you agree with then, maybe try fangraphs WAR and see if you like it better

[Majingir]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Completely random offseason question.

I was looking up David Wells (long story short, it connects to watching wrestling), and forgot Jays dealt him to Chicago, and there was major controversy about the trade. How did that trade even get approved when the White Sox apparently didn't even hand over Sirotkas fully medical reports, which would've revealed he'd never pitch again?

Jays dealt a guy who just finished top 3 in Cy Young voting, and the big piece they thought they were getting back (a SP several years younger who finished top 5 in ERA) was secretly injured.

[Caulfield]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Completely random offseason question.

I was looking up David Wells (long story short, it connects to watching wrestling), and forgot Jays dealt him to Chicago, and there was major controversy about the trade. How did that trade even get approved when the White Sox apparently didn't even hand over Sirotkas fully medical reports, which would've revealed he'd never pitch again?

Jays dealt a guy who just finished top 3 in Cy Young voting, and the big piece they thought they were getting back (a SP several years younger who finished top 5 in ERA) was secretly injured.

I thought Wells was traded because he was viewed by mgmt. as a cancer to Toronto, the Toronto fans, and Toronto mgmt.
Toronto GM Ash didn't even bother to make the deal contingent on Sirotkas medical health, he just wanted Wells out of Toronto.
fwiw, Wells had a bad back in his lone 2001 season with the White Sox, and only started 16 games.
his 100 ip was his fewest since 1989, his last season in the bullpen.
heck, Wells even pitched more in the strike shortened '94 season

also, I personally believe Ash made the right move dealing Wells, just in the amount of $ saved.
and Toronto was basically the same team in 2000 and 2001 (3 less wins w/o Wells)

the White Sox however were considerably worse in '01 from 2000
(fell from 95 wins to 83 wins, which coincidentally the same amount of win Toronto won in 2000 w/Wells)

I feel like in hindsight, Toronto's biggest mistake going from to 2000 to '01 was in replacing mgr. Fregosi with Buck Martinez,
who as a manager, was by far a better broadcaster lol

[steelerfan]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

I still consider Wells' perfect game to be amongst the coolest things I've ever watched in sports and I did so completely randomly.

It was very early in the season and DirecTV was running a free preview that weekend for "MLB Extra Innings". There wasn't anything else to watch so I settled in to watch some baseball and the Yankees game was the first one on that day (I believe at 11 am Central) so I figured I'd watch it until some of the other games started.

Little did I know, I'd wind up watching the whole game and would see an amazing accomplishment. So glad I saw that.

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[Master Live 013]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

A better Ground Ball to Fly Ball ratio?

That's not a thing.

And babip, in general, is considered to occur randomly (the pitcher has no control over it) so Bard having a .100 points lower babip is something one wouldn't expect to be repeated.

So those 2 thing aren't really points in Bard's favor.


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[Amoo316]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

A better Ground Ball to Fly Ball ratio?

That's not a thing.

And babip, in general, is considered to occur randomly (the pitcher has no control over it) so Bard having a .100 points lower babip is something one wouldn't expect to be repeated.

So those 2 thing aren't really points in Bard's favor.


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Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio is totally a thing, what are you talking about? It's all part of the Batted Ball category.

I don't even know what pitches Bard throws, but based on his stats I would assume he throws a sinker or splitter, so let's see:

https://www.brooksbaseball.net/landing.php?player=453268

Yup, he's a sinker ball pitcher as would be expected. Let's see what Diaz throws:

https://www.brooksbaseball.net/landing.php?player=621242

Fastball, Slider

In regards to babip, Bard has beaten Diaz in babip 2 out of the last 3 years. Turns out he's also beat him in WPA those same two years. Bard's beat Diaz in GB/FB ratio all 3 years, as would be expected because of what he throws.

You are correct that babip can be considered luck, and it's EXACTLY the reason xbabip exists which tells you expected average vs balls in play. I was trying to keep it as simple as possible to show Bard was a ground ball pitcher and faced tougher batters. Both of which are true.

Bard's Xbabip this year was .223 vs a .221 babip, Diaz's Xbabip this year was .310 vs a .330 babip.

EDIT After steelersfan like: I think we can all agree that xbabip/babip is way more important for a pitcher like Bard because he's not a strikeout pitcher, which is why I chose to use that stat specifically. Was just trying to keep it simple for non-stat nerds.

[Caulfield]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

I still consider Wells' perfect game to be amongst the coolest things I've ever watched in sports and I did so completely randomly.

It was very early in the season and DirecTV was running a free preview that weekend for "MLB Extra Innings". There wasn't anything else to watch so I settled in to watch some baseball and the Yankees game was the first one on that day (I believe at 11 am Central) so I figured I'd watch it until some of the other games started.

Little did I know, I'd wind up watching the whole game and would see an amazing accomplishment. So glad I saw that.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

for some reason this reminds me of the old joke about the woman who went to her first baseball game and there was a no-hitter up until 2 outs in the 9th when the one team finally got their first hit.
the woman says she was glad of the hit or otherwise she wouldn't have seen anything the whole game lol

[Amoo316]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

In respect to Aaron Judge Free Agency.

Am I the only one who feels, he makes more money in the long run, regardless of the difference in offers this offseason if he stays a Yankee? Maybe it's the collector in me, maybe it's just the old school baseball fan. I just think his long term earnings potential is higher with his statue in monument park as the HR leader, then breaking the record and taking a higher deal this offseason and going somewhere else.

[Master Live 013]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio is totally a thing, what are you talking about? It's all part of the Batted Ball category.

I don't even know what pitches Bard throws, but based on his stats I would assume he throws a sinker or splitter, so let's see:

https://www.brooksbaseball.net/landing.php?player=453268

Yup, he's a sinker ball pitcher as would be expected. Let's see what Diaz throws:

https://www.brooksbaseball.net/landing.php?player=621242

Fastball, Slider

In regards to babip, Bard has beaten Diaz in babip 2 out of the last 3 years. Turns out he's also beat him in WPA those same two years. Bard's beat Diaz in GB/FB ratio all 3 years, as would be expected because of what he throws.

You are correct that babip can be considered luck, and it's EXACTLY the reason xbabip exists which tells you expected average vs balls in play. I was trying to keep it as simple as possible to show Bard was a ground ball pitcher and faced tougher batters. Both of which are true.

Bard's Xbabip this year was .223 vs a .221 babip, Diaz's Xbabip this year was .310 vs a .330 babip.

EDIT After steelersfan like: I think we can all agree that xbabip/babip is way more important for a pitcher like Bard because he's not a strikeout pitcher, which is why I chose to use that stat specifically. Was just trying to keep it simple for non-stat nerds.

No need to keep it simple for me, I dabble.

Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio isn't a thing as "this guy had a better Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio than this guy". Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio is a descriptive stat, "this guy gets more ground balls or gets more fly ball", not such a thing as better or worst.

Grounders are weaker contact, but are more likely to be hits (singles), fly balls are more likely to be converted into outs, but are more likely to for HR/extra bases.

Not sure what WPA has to do with babip and GB/FB.