2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

[JayD]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

That's more like it. The 6 and 190 was laughable.

Hey, I just heard the rumor from ESPN comments.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

Hey, I just heard the rumor from ESPN comments.

Ooof. No wonder...

[k_mac]

2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

184 million over 8 years for Heyward, per Jon Heyman

Edit: gets two opt outs

[Master Live 013]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

LOL. I hope not. Where is this rumor from? I could see 7 and 190 (although 7 and 175 would be more fair, imo). Touching $32MM annually for Heyward would be looney.

How?

190/6= 31.6M per year.

The last four seasons Heyward's fWAR numbers are: 6.5 + 3.4 + 5.2 + 6.0= 21.1 WAR.

21.1/4= 5.275 WAR per year.

At $6,000,000 per WAR (an estimate on the low end) that comes to 6 x 5.275 = 31.65M

If we use the ~$7.6M per WAR figure I believe you used earlier on the Castro/Zobrist discussion that comes out to:

7.6 x 5.275= 40.1M

Plus a 6 year deal would greatly limit the downside at the end of the contract, taking him through his 32 year old season.

So I ask, how would a 6 year, $190M contract would be "looney"?

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

How?

190/6= 31.6M per year.

The last four seasons Heyward's fWAR numbers are: 6.5 + 3.4 + 5.2 + 6.0= 21.1 WAR.

21.1/4= 5.275 WAR per year.

At $6,000,000 per WAR (an estimate on the low end) that comes to 6 x 5.275 = 31.65M

If we use the ~$7.6M per WAR figure I believe you used earlier on the Castro/Zobrist discussion that comes out to:

7.6 x 5.275= 40.1M

Plus a 6 year deal would greatly limit the downside at the end of the contract, taking him through his 32 year old season.

So I ask, how would a 6 year, $190M contract would be "looney"?

Looney because 1. you never want to outbid all the other teams by 50%. And 2. you try to avoid paying market value $/WAR wherever possible. Why buy retail when you can get wholesale or homegrown? That's why it would've been looney.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: Heyward can opt out of deal with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cubs?src=hash">#Cubs</a> after year three or year four if he exceeds certain plate appearance thresholds.</p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/675412080070139905">December 11, 2015</a></blockquote>

[dubcity]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

How?

190/6= 31.6M per year.

The last four seasons Heyward's fWAR numbers are: 6.5 + 3.4 + 5.2 + 6.0= 21.1 WAR.

21.1/4= 5.275 WAR per year.

At $6,000,000 per WAR (an estimate on the low end) that comes to 6 x 5.275 = 31.65M

If we use the ~$7.6M per WAR figure I believe you used earlier on the Castro/Zobrist discussion that comes out to:

7.6 x 5.275= 40.1M

Plus a 6 year deal would greatly limit the downside at the end of the contract, taking him through his 32 year old season.

So I ask, how would a 6 year, $190M contract would be "looney"?

Will the test be open note?

[Master Live 013]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

Looney because 1. you never want to outbid all the other teams by 50%. And 2. you try to avoid paying market value $/WAR wherever possible. Why buy retail when you can get wholesale or homegrown? That's why it would've been looney.

The markup in price wouldn't had been for nothing, it would assuredly had in exchange for limiting the contract to 6 years. There is value in that.

Exchanging 1 year less for 31.66M spread over the length of the contract isn't lunacy.

And from which sources are you getting that 190/6 would be outbidding others by 50%?

[Master Live 013]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

Anyways, the actual contract is for 8 years, 184M. I like it for the Cubs and would like it even better if he is just playing RF and the Cubs add a capable CF.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

The markup in price wouldn't had been for nothing, it would assuredly had in exchange for limiting the contract to 6 years. There is value in that.

Exchanging 1 year less for 31.66M spread over the length of the contract isn't lunacy.

And from which sources are you getting that 190/6 would be outbidding others by 50%?

Agree to disagree. Paying a guy $32MM/year is valuing him at 4-5 WAR/yr. At that point with Heyward it would be almost all risk and no upside. Just hoping to break even. Would not be a good investment. Does not matter. A more reasonable contract is the reality.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

Anyways, the actual contract is for 8 years, 184M. I like it for the Cubs and would like it even better if he is just playing RF and the Cubs add a capable CF.

Agree 100%. I also want him in RF. The 184 mil is a bit more than I'd like, but one has to factor in the value for disabling your key competition (Cardinals).

[D13]

2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

Will the test be open note?

These saber metric guys drive me up the wall. Put the players on the field and play ball.

Cubs got a bargain and I mean BARGAIN for jhey.

Idc if his first step is equal to paying him 4 dollars and 50 cent for each step he takes over a 8 year span.

The fact he signed with us for less over St. Louis and Washington tells you a lot about the Chicago Cubs. Let's go !


Leave the "WAR" talk to another thread. This is a hot stove thread last I saw.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[19]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

How?

190/6= 31.6M per year.

The last four seasons Heyward's fWAR numbers are: 6.5 + 3.4 + 5.2 + 6.0= 21.1 WAR.

21.1/4= 5.275 WAR per year.

At $6,000,000 per WAR (an estimate on the low end) that comes to 6 x 5.275 = 31.65M

If we use the ~$7.6M per WAR figure I believe you used earlier on the Castro/Zobrist discussion that comes out to:

7.6 x 5.275= 40.1M

Plus a 6 year deal would greatly limit the downside at the end of the contract, taking him through his 32 year old season.

So I ask, how would a 6 year, $190M contract would be "looney"?

Will the test be open note?

[Sportsforever]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

I love Jason Heyward...it saddens me to see him not spend a 20 year career as a Brave.

That said, I'd have a hard time giving him this kind of money for a few reasons:

1) A lot of his value comes from defense/baserunning. He's elite in those areas, but those are also the two areas that can/do decline the earliest.

2) Ever since he was beaned by Jon Niese in August of 2013 he has really struggled against LHP. He was absolutely abysmal in 2014 and not that great in 2015.

3) His BB rate continues to decline. I have never seen a player who displayed such excellent plate discipline as a 20 year old rookie to only see it erode with each passing year.

Overall, the Cubs have to make this move and it's going to reap immediate benefits, and honestly I don't know who else is out there to throw money at. No way though the Braves could give any player this kind of money right now.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

If any of you are on Twitter, may I suggest giving @BestFansStLouis a follow. They've been quite active today.

This twitter feed has been absolutely BRUTAL on Heyward today. All kinds of vile, sadistic, racist, and homophobic stuff. Check it out, lol