Two months into the season and let's evaluate the "regular" batting order. I put regular in quotations because in 54 games, Dusty has used 39 different batting orders.
Cozart
Stubbs
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
Ludwick
Frazier
Hanigan
Analyzing this order, the Reds would score 690 runs over a 162 game season. That would continue the regression this offense started last season from the #1 offense they had back in 2010.
So how do we squeeze out every run out of these players? Using Sabermetrics (I know, a dirty word to some) to analyze the order (info comes from Beyond the Box Score). The spots in order of importance are...#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9
The Book says OBP is king. The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they're not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him. Joey Votto has the highest OBP at .478, but his .617 SLG would be wasted. The next highest OBP is .361 belonging to....Ryan Hanigan.
The Book says the #4 hitter comes to bat in the most important situations out of all nine spots, but is equal in importance to the #2 hole once you consider the #2 guy receives more plate appearances. The cleanup hitter is the best hitter on the team with power. Votto and his .617 SLG would fill in nicely here.
The Books says the #2 hitter comes to bat in situations about as important as the #3 hitter, but more often. That means the #2 hitter should be better than the #3 guy, and one of the best three hitters overall. And since he bats with the bases empty more often than the hitters behind him, he should be a high-OBP player. Doesn't sound like someone who should be sacrificing, does it? Here's where the Reds run into problems. Outside of Hanigan and Votto, the next highest OBP is Jay Bruce at .318. The top two OPS guys here are Bruce (.852) and Frazier (.919). Both strike out a ton. Both are not ideal here. But then, nobody else is either (you could plug Votto here, but being our best power hitter, you want him cleanup.) Reds simply have too many hitters with the same qualities. For this analysis, we'll put Bruce here.
The Book says the #5 guy can provide more value than the #3 guy with singles, doubles, triples, and walks, and avoiding outs, although the #3 guy holds an advantage with homeruns. After positions #1, #2, and #4 are filled, put your next best hitter here, unless he lives and dies with the long ball. The next best OBP guy is Todd Frazier at .317. Again not ideal, which is showing the limitations of the Reds lineup. We like to hit home runs. When we don't, we lose. But, he does have a .602 SLG.
The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of. Enter Zach Cozart and his .426 SLG.
The old-school book says the rest of the lineup should be written in based on decreasing talent. Hitting ninth is an insult. The Book basically agrees, with a caveat. Stolen bases are most valuable ahead of high-contact singles hitters, who are more likely to hit at the bottom of the lineup. So a base-stealing threat who doesn't deserve a spot higher in the lineup is optimized in the #6 hole, followed by the singles hitters. Drew Stubbs is our only consistent stolen base threat in the lineup with 13 steals, so he will hit sixth. Batting seventh would be Brandon Phillips (.714 OPS). Batting eigth would be Ryan Ludwick (.692 OPS). The pitcher's spot is 9th As for that whole batting the pitcher 8th, because the concept only saves you two runs in a season (0.2 wins), it's not significant enough to get away from the traditional lineup.
So how would this lineup do?
Hanigan
Bruce
Cozart
Votto
Frazier
Stubbs
Phillips
Ludwick
According to analysis, this lineup would score 702 runs over a 162 game season. An increase of 12 runs (1.2 wins).
What about Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool (which I have problems with, but whatever)? According to them, the optimal Reds lineup is...
Hanigan
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
Frazier
Ludwick
Stubbs
Cozart
That lineup would generate....one extra run.
So what can we take from all this? Stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision.
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