"This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

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  • jasontoddwhitt
    MVP
    • May 2003
    • 8095

    #301
    Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

    Two months into the season and let's evaluate the "regular" batting order. I put regular in quotations because in 54 games, Dusty has used 39 different batting orders.

    Cozart
    Stubbs
    Votto
    Phillips
    Bruce
    Ludwick
    Frazier
    Hanigan

    Analyzing this order, the Reds would score 690 runs over a 162 game season. That would continue the regression this offense started last season from the #1 offense they had back in 2010.

    So how do we squeeze out every run out of these players? Using Sabermetrics (I know, a dirty word to some) to analyze the order (info comes from Beyond the Box Score). The spots in order of importance are...#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

    The Book says OBP is king. The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they're not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him. Joey Votto has the highest OBP at .478, but his .617 SLG would be wasted. The next highest OBP is .361 belonging to....Ryan Hanigan.

    The Book says the #4 hitter comes to bat in the most important situations out of all nine spots, but is equal in importance to the #2 hole once you consider the #2 guy receives more plate appearances. The cleanup hitter is the best hitter on the team with power. Votto and his .617 SLG would fill in nicely here.

    The Books says the #2 hitter comes to bat in situations about as important as the #3 hitter, but more often. That means the #2 hitter should be better than the #3 guy, and one of the best three hitters overall. And since he bats with the bases empty more often than the hitters behind him, he should be a high-OBP player. Doesn't sound like someone who should be sacrificing, does it? Here's where the Reds run into problems. Outside of Hanigan and Votto, the next highest OBP is Jay Bruce at .318. The top two OPS guys here are Bruce (.852) and Frazier (.919). Both strike out a ton. Both are not ideal here. But then, nobody else is either (you could plug Votto here, but being our best power hitter, you want him cleanup.) Reds simply have too many hitters with the same qualities. For this analysis, we'll put Bruce here.

    The Book says the #5 guy can provide more value than the #3 guy with singles, doubles, triples, and walks, and avoiding outs, although the #3 guy holds an advantage with homeruns. After positions #1, #2, and #4 are filled, put your next best hitter here, unless he lives and dies with the long ball. The next best OBP guy is Todd Frazier at .317. Again not ideal, which is showing the limitations of the Reds lineup. We like to hit home runs. When we don't, we lose. But, he does have a .602 SLG.

    The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of. Enter Zach Cozart and his .426 SLG.

    The old-school book says the rest of the lineup should be written in based on decreasing talent. Hitting ninth is an insult. The Book basically agrees, with a caveat. Stolen bases are most valuable ahead of high-contact singles hitters, who are more likely to hit at the bottom of the lineup. So a base-stealing threat who doesn't deserve a spot higher in the lineup is optimized in the #6 hole, followed by the singles hitters. Drew Stubbs is our only consistent stolen base threat in the lineup with 13 steals, so he will hit sixth. Batting seventh would be Brandon Phillips (.714 OPS). Batting eigth would be Ryan Ludwick (.692 OPS). The pitcher's spot is 9th As for that whole batting the pitcher 8th, because the concept only saves you two runs in a season (0.2 wins), it's not significant enough to get away from the traditional lineup.

    So how would this lineup do?

    Hanigan
    Bruce
    Cozart
    Votto
    Frazier
    Stubbs
    Phillips
    Ludwick

    According to analysis, this lineup would score 702 runs over a 162 game season. An increase of 12 runs (1.2 wins).

    What about Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool (which I have problems with, but whatever)? According to them, the optimal Reds lineup is...

    Hanigan
    Votto
    Phillips
    Bruce
    Frazier
    Ludwick
    Stubbs
    Cozart

    That lineup would generate....one extra run.

    So what can we take from all this? Stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision.
    Time Warp Baseball (OOTP 25)

    Comment

    • Son of Sam99
      MVP
      • Jul 2008
      • 1307

      #302
      Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

      Interesting stuff above. Unfortunately it appears the franchise is stuck with what its got for this season unless Walt makes a big move before the deadline. That being said I really don't mind the idea of going into the post season with this lineup as long as Hannigan starts.

      Stubbs and LF I think er the only ones truly under preforming as there are examples of SS who cant hit much at all throughout the league.
      @SCooper9


      Return to HockeyTown... A Detroit Red Wings BeaGM
      One Goal-- Jack Walker's NBA Journey

      Comment

      • HustlinOwl
        All Star
        • Mar 2004
        • 9713

        #303
        Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

        As long as it is not for Hamilton
        ESPN's Buster Olney is reporting that the Reds are one of the top locations for San Diego's Carlos Quentin to end up before MLB's July 31st trade deadline.

        Comment

        • redsrule
          All Star
          • Apr 2010
          • 9396

          #304
          Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

          Originally posted by HustlinOwl
          As long as it is not for Hamilton
          Agreed. I don't know what Quentin would command in a trade, but they have already gotten rid of quite a few good prospects lately so...
          Cincinnati Reds University of Kentucky Cincinnati Bengals
          @GoReds1994

          Comment

          • jasontoddwhitt
            MVP
            • May 2003
            • 8095

            #305
            Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

            Way to go Leake...you pitch three great innings, and now you can't get the ball down. Pirates are teeing off of him.
            Time Warp Baseball (OOTP 25)

            Comment

            • lonewolf371
              MVP
              • Aug 2009
              • 3420

              #306
              Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

              Originally posted by redsrule
              Agreed. I don't know what Quentin would command in a trade, but they have already gotten rid of quite a few good prospects lately so...
              Offensively, he's been quite good. He's terrible in the field, though.

              Originally posted by jasontoddwhitt
              Way to go Leake...you pitch three great innings, and now you can't get the ball down. Pirates are teeing off of him.
              Just another series against the Pirates. Can't stand them.
              NFL: Indianapolis Colts (12-6)
              NBA: Indiana Pacers (42-13)
              MLB: Cincinnati Reds (0-0)
              NHL: Detroit Red Wings (26-20-12)
              NCAA: Purdue Boilermakers (FB: 1-11, BB: 15-12), Michigan Wolverines (FB: 7-6, BB: 19-7, H: 15-10-3)

              Comment

              • Son of Sam99
                MVP
                • Jul 2008
                • 1307

                #307
                Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

                Would Quinten really help us? Another .250 hitter in left field? A hot start does not a season make
                @SCooper9


                Return to HockeyTown... A Detroit Red Wings BeaGM
                One Goal-- Jack Walker's NBA Journey

                Comment

                • Rexis
                  Y.N.W.A
                  • Jun 2009
                  • 2504

                  #308
                  Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds



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                  Originally posted by random internet guy
                  More hits than followers
                  Show the legend some love.

                  PeteRose_14
                  ST. LOUIS RAMS FRANCHISE (MADDEN 2010)


                  LiverpoolFC Atlanta Falcons Atlanta Hawks Atlanta Braves Kobe Bryant

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                  • lonewolf371
                    MVP
                    • Aug 2009
                    • 3420

                    #309
                    Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

                    Originally posted by Son of Sam99
                    Would Quinten really help us? Another .250 hitter in left field? A hot start does not a season make
                    Batting average doesn't mean anything. He gets on base at a .348 rate which is pretty good and he doesn't strike out a lot.
                    NFL: Indianapolis Colts (12-6)
                    NBA: Indiana Pacers (42-13)
                    MLB: Cincinnati Reds (0-0)
                    NHL: Detroit Red Wings (26-20-12)
                    NCAA: Purdue Boilermakers (FB: 1-11, BB: 15-12), Michigan Wolverines (FB: 7-6, BB: 19-7, H: 15-10-3)

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                    • jasontoddwhitt
                      MVP
                      • May 2003
                      • 8095

                      #310
                      Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

                      Originally posted by lonewolf371
                      Batting average doesn't mean anything. He gets on base at a .348 rate which is pretty good and he doesn't strike out a lot.
                      I wouldn't mind Quentin, but the Reds are more interested in a left-handed bat off the bench.

                      As for the other player whose name has popped up (Youkilis), the Reds told the Sox thanks, but we're happy with Frazier at third.
                      Last edited by jasontoddwhitt; 06-09-2012, 04:57 PM.
                      Time Warp Baseball (OOTP 25)

                      Comment

                      • Buckeyes_Doc
                        In Dalton I Trust
                        • Jan 2009
                        • 11918

                        #311
                        Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

                        Originally posted by lonewolf371
                        Batting average doesn't mean anything. He gets on base at a .348 rate which is pretty good and he doesn't strike out a lot.
                        Batting average isn't the only thing that matters, but it means something.
                        Ohio State - Reds - Bengals - Blackhawks - Bulls

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                        • jasontoddwhitt
                          MVP
                          • May 2003
                          • 8095

                          #312
                          Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

                          No more excuses for making mediocre pitchers look like world beaters after today. They put together multiple quality at-bats against an actual Cy Young and MVP winner. It’s not about ability, it’s about focus and their approach at the plate or lack thereof.
                          Time Warp Baseball (OOTP 25)

                          Comment

                          • ESPNdeportes
                            MVP
                            • Jul 2002
                            • 3459

                            #313
                            Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

                            ouch, tonight's loss hurt.....just a total unraveling!
                            "You can not ensure success, but you can deserve it." - John Quincy Adams

                            PSN: raginrapids

                            Comment

                            • Spider Tre
                              Rookie
                              • Aug 2010
                              • 428

                              #314
                              Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

                              that loss hurt, definitely. lost and used up a lot of the bullpen. only ones not used were Hoover and LeCure

                              they said LeCure was unavailable anyway

                              Comment

                              • lonewolf371
                                MVP
                                • Aug 2009
                                • 3420

                                #315
                                Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds

                                Originally posted by Buckeyes_Doc
                                Batting average isn't the only thing that matters, but it means something.
                                If you asked me to judge a position player in ten stats, batting average would not be one of them.

                                Originally posted by jasontoddwhitt
                                No more excuses for making mediocre pitchers look like world beaters after today. They put together multiple quality at-bats against an actual Cy Young and MVP winner. It’s not about ability, it’s about focus and their approach at the plate or lack thereof.
                                Seriously. They looked fine against Verlander but have looked absolutely hacktastic at other times of the year. I wonder if we need a new hitting coach.
                                NFL: Indianapolis Colts (12-6)
                                NBA: Indiana Pacers (42-13)
                                MLB: Cincinnati Reds (0-0)
                                NHL: Detroit Red Wings (26-20-12)
                                NCAA: Purdue Boilermakers (FB: 1-11, BB: 15-12), Michigan Wolverines (FB: 7-6, BB: 19-7, H: 15-10-3)

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