So I did some statistical work and was able to come up with a good way of coming up with a predicted Overall/Potential using some advanced stats on player performances from the last few seasons. (I am going to grad school and am learning stats. So playing NBA2k19 is good way to keep the grades up! ;-P).
One thing that jumped out at me is the huge increase in predicted OVR in year 2-3 of all-time great players like Karl Malone and Chris Mullin. So I am starting to agree with you that the progression rate needs to stay high or move even higher to stay close to realism.
That said, there needs to be a way to counteract the increasing number of players in 70--90 range. I am thinking of jacking the injury rate to 60-70 range. That should curb some of the highly rated potential players from realizing their potential. In addition, I was thinking of offsetting the high injury rate for the guys at the top of the draft class (anywhere from 1-4 players max) to a durability of 90+. This should ensure that they have a better chance of hitting their potential.
Another thing I am thinking of doing is lowering the Peak Age Start in both the rosters and in the draft classes by a couple of years. This way, if a player doesn't get play time right away or gets hurt he wont realize his potential. For example, if the maximum progression is 4 points per year, a player who has a 70 OVR and a 90 OVR will get to his full potential in 5 years. If I lower his peak start age where the difference from his current age is 5 years, he will need to avoid injury and get full progression each year to hit his 90 potential. With a high enough injury slider, this doesn't seem likely for a player with a lower durability rating (ie below 80).
Just some thoughts. What do you think?
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