2014 Draft Discussion

[areobee401]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

How is the system hurting the league? The idea is that teams eventually make the playoffs which limits the chances of doing what Cleveland has lucked into (yes, lucked into) these last 4 years. If we want to look at stats, lets look at the number of times a team has gotten the #1 pick back to back years... and how many times a team has gotten it 3 out of 4 years.

Why would the NBA look at those statistics and think they need to change anything?

The system as it stands now encourages losing and rewards incompetence. All non-playoff teams should enter the lottery with the same odds to land a #1 pick. Teams purposely trying to develop a roster which gives them a chance at the most ping pong balls hurts the league.

[Boltman]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

There's a rumor floating around Los Angeles that Andrew Wiggins just bought a condo here off Ventura Blvd. I know it doesn't mean anything, and who knows if it's even true or not, but figured I'd share with you guys.





EDIT: My apologies to Exogenesis33, just a little harmless messing around.



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[VDusen04]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

The system as it stands now encourages losing and rewards incompetence. All non-playoff teams should enter the lottery with the same odds to land a #1 pick. Teams purposely trying to develop a roster which gives them a chance at the most ping pong balls hurts the league.

If anything, I feel this year's draft lottery results may have helped fight against tanking, for the team that won the first pick was actively chasing a playoff spot throughout the season.

I feel regardless of how the lottery is setup, incompetence will always have the chance to be rewarded in some fashion. For instance, some consider the Cavaliers incompetent, yet they happened to win the lottery despite only having a 1.8% chance. Altering the system so each team had an equal opportunity would have only elevated their chances of winning the top pick, no?

I think every team has their reasons for being bad. It could be general manager incompetence (Cleveland, Detroit), unappealing locale (Milwaukee), or teams who had stars force their way out to a bigger market and leaving behind mere scraps (Orlando). Unless we want to develop a committee whose job is to come together and debate the merits of each team's futility before ultimately deciding who most deserves the first selection (aka those who are most innocent to their team's own failures), then I think the lottery is one of the better and most fair strategies we can have.

[areobee401]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

If anything, I feel this year's draft lottery results may have helped fight against tanking, for the team that won the first pick was actively chasing a playoff spot throughout the season.

I feel regardless of how the lottery is setup, incompetence will always have the chance to be rewarded in some fashion. For instance, some consider the Cavaliers incompetent, yet they happened to win the lottery despite only having a 1.8% chance. Altering the system so each team had an equal opportunity would have only elevated their chances of winning the top pick, no?

I think every team has their reasons for being bad. It could be general manager incompetence (Cleveland, Detroit), unappealing locale (Milwaukee), or teams who had stars force their way out to a bigger market and leaving behind mere scraps (Orlando). Unless we want to develop a committee whose job is to come together and debate the merits of each team's futility before ultimately deciding who most deserves the first selection (aka those who are most innocent to their team's own failures), then I think the lottery is one of the better and most fair strategies we can have.

Equal odds would help eliminate all the bad basketball being played around the league. Teams would see less of a benefit in purposely putting an inferior product on the court in hopes of having better lottery odds. The system now not only hurts the on court product, but also turns off fans in many NBA markets.

[ojandpizza]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Or, 7th / 8th seed teams who know they are a first round exit might intentionally lose games to miss the playoffs knowing they have an equal chance at a top pic as the worst team in the league does.


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[VDusen04]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Equal odds would help eliminate all the bad basketball being played around the league. Teams would see less of a benefit in purposely putting an inferior product on the court in hopes of having better lottery odds. The system now not only hurts the on court product, but also turns off fans in many NBA markets.

Might that also indirectly affect the teams who are trying but find themselves in desperate need of draft assistance?

Further, are we convinced the lottery odds are the lone reason teams stop pushing themselves at the end of the season? Even if a team were out of the playoff race and thus "clinched" their equal lottery odds, do you believe they'd play out the season as if they were priming for a championship? I am not convinced. I believe when a team's playoff chances are compromised, they're much more likely to rest their big guns and ease back a little bit regardless, in a manner similar to how teams losing by 40 in the fourth will often give up.

So I guess, ultimately, the question now is, does the severity of tanking now surpass the help needed via draft by the worst of the worst? And further, would equal draft odds truly improve play?

[areobee401]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Or, 7th / 8th seed teams who know they are a first round exit might intentionally lose games to miss the playoffs knowing they have an equal chance at a top pic as the worst team in the league does.


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Fair enough. Still say 1/3 of the league purposely losing games after the All-Star break is a problem.

[wwharton]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

The system as it stands now encourages losing and rewards incompetence. All non-playoff teams should enter the lottery with the same odds to land a #1 pick. Teams purposely trying to develop a roster which gives them a chance at the most ping pong balls hurts the league.

Your argument doesn't make much sense coming off of yesterday's results. The teams that appeared to tank for more ping pong balls (including your Celtics) were jumped by the team that was trying to make the playoffs BECAUSE of the way the system is currently set up.

Equal odds would help eliminate all the bad basketball being played around the league. Teams would see less of a benefit in purposely putting an inferior product on the court in hopes of having better lottery odds. The system now not only hurts the on court product, but also turns off fans in many NBA markets.

The super power teams are much more responsible for this... this isn't the NFL where the worst record automatically gets the 1st pick. The current lottery system (as Cleveland just proved) deters teams from tanking, but they do it anyway because they know they have no shot without getting a high pick and or freeing up a ton of cap space and attracting superstars to join together in their city. You can change the draft however you want but that won't change this.

As I said before, no matter how unlikely it is for a team to get the #1 pick in 3 out of 4 years, it's even less likely for that to be happen again. It's way overblown to say they need to change anything bc of what happened yesterday. Hell, the Cavs are also proof that getting multiple high picks doesn't mean you'll have a quality product on the court.

[ex carrabba fan]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Statistical anomalies happen, I think that's the whole point. The league shouldn't allow a possible anomaly to happen if they don't have to. I don't think anyone wants to see a team get two #1's in a row. I'm not saying it's the worst thing to happen to the league but if they could help it, then why not? I mean again, what if Cleveland gets a top 3 pick again next year or the #1?

Are the rules up to the owners to decide or the league btw?

[phenom1990]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Fair enough. Still say 1/3 of the league purposely losing games after the All-Star break is a problem.

While I understand the beef with tanking, just remember the draft lottery was put in place because tanking was even worse before it.

Also for the record, Cleveland getting the 1st pick in 2011 was a statistical irregularity because they got it with the Clippers pick, which had only a 2.8% of happening. I don't know if draft lottery odds need to be tweaked to try and reduce tanking. But if you even out the odds for more teams, it increases the odds of someone else pulling off a Cleveland.

Also I'm not a fan of the draft wheel idea that has been floated out there.

[areobee401]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Your argument doesn't make much sense coming off of yesterday's results. The teams that appeared to tank for more ping pong balls (including your Celtics) were jumped by the team that was trying to make the playoffs BECAUSE of the way the system is currently set up.

Yesterday's results have nothing to do with what I feel the system encourages losing. You think watching the C's purposely lose was fun as a fan?

My problem with yesterday's results is Cleveland landing back to back #1 picks. As I said in a previous post, a rule preventing that needs to be implemented.

The super power teams are much more responsible for this... this isn't the NFL where the worst record automatically gets the 1st pick. The current lottery system (as Cleveland just proved) deters teams from tanking, but they do it anyway because they know they have no shot without getting a high pick and or freeing up a ton of cap space and attracting superstars to join together in their city. You can change the draft however you want but that won't change this.

As I said before, no matter how unlikely it is for a team to get the #1 pick in 3 out of 4 years, it's even less likely for that to be happen again. It's way overblown to say they need to change anything bc of what happened yesterday. Hell, the Cavs are also proof that getting multiple high picks doesn't mean you'll have a quality product on the court.

The current system does absolutely nothing to discourage tanking. I don't believe that for a second. And neither do you since you mentioned the Celtics tanking for ping pong balls.

[ojandpizza]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

It's odd that usually you draft biggest need or best talent.. Cleveland has no glaring need, and there isn't a clear cut best talent in this particular draft..

I think I'm going Wiggins for them though


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[ProfessaPackMan]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

While I do hate that Cleveland has their 4th #1 pick in the last 10 years, I don't think the system is broken or needs to be tweaked at all to prevent teams from getting a #1 pick or a Top 3 pick every single year. As we've seen throughout recent history, it's not like teams are being rewarded for Tanking because the ones that do, fail at that more times than not.

I think in the last 2 years, Washington has had 2 Top 3 picks(Beal/Porter).

[VDusen04]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Fair enough. Still say 1/3 of the league purposely losing games after the All-Star break is a problem.

Is it truly your belief that 10 teams were all, by the All-Star break, not only conceding they weren't going to make the playoffs, but also actively attempting to lose every game on purpose? If so, I am interested in this stance. Do you believe it was the top 10 teams of the lottery this year?

[ProfessaPackMan]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

In truth, the lottery has rarely rewarded the worst team. Only three times in 25 lotteries (since the NBA changed the system to weigh the odds) has the worst team won the first pick in the lottery. Even that’s misleading: The 2003 Cavaliers, the year they got LeBron James, were tied with Denver for the worst record.
In 12 of the 25 lotteries — just about half of them — the No. 1 pick went to a team with fifth-worst record or better. The odds are supposed to be STRONGLY against those better teams, but maybe the power of the basketball gods (who loathe tanking — I know, I’ve talked to them) overwhelms the strength of mathematical odds.

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/21/tanks-for-nothing-top-pick-usually-not-franchise-changer/