2014 Draft Discussion

[redsrule]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

I think the 76'ers are in an interesting spot at #3. They are probably praying that either Parker or Wiggins drop to #3, because they do not need Exum (MCW) or Embiid (Noel) at all. If they get lucky and say Parker falls there, they could then focus on best player available at #10. Grab Gordon/Randle/Vonleh if they fall, or pick a guy like James Young/Nik Stauskus/Gary Harris who could start at the 2 for them.

[redsrule]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Also good video on Embiid against the 3 NBA quality big men he faced this year:

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Joel-Embiid-vs-NBA-Caliber-Centers-Video-Analysis-4546/#ooid=hybHd4bToJ8qhdaWoC46r0elsuUqObdI

[TheMatrix31]

Re: 2014 Draft Class

Did you shed a tear with that butt hurt?

Yeah I'm really "butthurt" that I don't root for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

[ojandpizza]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

I think Cleveland is in a really weird spot here. Despite the chemistry/locker room issues, and despite the underachieving they still have more talent and potential than a team picking first should ever have..

If Embiid absolutely maximizes his potential and becomes that once in a decade big man some project him to become it's a huge loss to pass on him.. But at the same time Cleveland has a rotation of bigs that's already pretty solid. TT, Varejao, Zeller, Hawes, Bennett.. I know it's not always best to draft need but they already have lots of options inside.

Also if they decide to resign Deng they don't really need a SF, so Embiid makes sense.. But if they don't resign him SF instantly becomes their largest weakness.. You draft Wiggins and instantly you have one of the most dynamic back courts in the league, a potential superstar F/G to compete with Durant, and Paul George over the next however many years..

But also Jabari makes sense too. If he rounds out his potential he's instant offense, and I think he compliments Kyrie better because he seems much more capable playing without the ball in his hands.. They also could develop into a monster pick and roll duo..

It also makes sense to move down.. With loads of talent, and hopefully a much improved coaching staff the best thing for them might be to add some quality veterans to the roster while still retaining a good pick.. With the depth available in this draft they can still grab someone who will provide a huge impact if they slide back a few picks..

To me, the Love trade isn't a great move.. Thompson and Bennett one (maybe both) should develop into a solid player for them at PF, Thompson already is becoming a good pro.. But if Love will stay it's going to be very enticing.. I still think they should only do that trade if they can also get Dieng in return with Love.. Monster rebounder and shot blocker.

Just lots of options for them at this point. I keep trying to think of the best move for them in my head, it just seems like they're in such a great position that whatever they end up doing will end up making them a really good team.. But knowing Cleveland they'll find a way to **** it up.


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[LoSoisNiCEx414]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

As a Bucks fan. If we take Embiid , do we trade Sanders? Of so id like a

Sanders to OKC for Perkins,Lamb, 1 of their 1sts this year, then obv release Perkins

Didnt check $ or anything like that.

[ojandpizza]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

As a Bucks fan. If we take Embiid , do we trade Sanders? Of so id like a



Sanders to OKC for Perkins,Lamb, 1 of their 1sts this year, then obv release Perkins



Didnt check $ or anything like that.

If you're going to trade Sanders I would try and do much better than Lamb.. Might as well ship off Mayo too, he pretty much worked his way out of a decent role there.

Hell, trade Miami Sanders, Mayo, Illyasova for Chris Bosh.


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[BlueNGold]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

I think Cleveland is in a really weird spot here. Despite the chemistry/locker room issues, and despite the underachieving they still have more talent and potential than a team picking first should ever have..

If Embiid absolutely maximizes his potential and becomes that once in a decade big man some project him to become it's a huge loss to pass on him.. But at the same time Cleveland has a rotation of bigs that's already pretty solid. TT, Varejao, Zeller, Hawes, Bennett.. I know it's not always best to draft need but they already have lots of options inside.

Also if they decide to resign Deng they don't really need a SF, so Embiid makes sense.. But if they don't resign him SF instantly becomes their largest weakness.. You draft Wiggins and instantly you have one of the most dynamic back courts in the league, a potential superstar F/G to compete with Durant, and Paul George over the next however many years..

But also Jabari makes sense too. If he rounds out his potential he's instant offense, and I think he compliments Kyrie better because he seems much more capable playing without the ball in his hands.. They also could develop into a monster pick and roll duo..

It also makes sense to move down.. With loads of talent, and hopefully a much improved coaching staff the best thing for them might be to add some quality veterans to the roster while still retaining a good pick.. With the depth available in this draft they can still grab someone who will provide a huge impact if they slide back a few picks..

To me, the Love trade isn't a great move.. Thompson and Bennett one (maybe both) should develop into a solid player for them at PF, Thompson already is becoming a good pro.. But if Love will stay it's going to be very enticing.. I still think they should only do that trade if they can also get Dieng in return with Love.. Monster rebounder and shot blocker.

Just lots of options for them at this point. I keep trying to think of the best move for them in my head, it just seems like they're in such a great position that whatever they end up doing will end up making them a really good team.. But knowing Cleveland they'll find a way to **** it up.


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They might have a decent rotation of bigs but you can't count on Varejao to be there all 82 games and he's getting up there in age. To pass on Embiid because they already have a few decent bigs would be really, really stupid.

As for Deng, I'd be really surprised if he resigned and stayed in Cleveland. The future might look a little less murkier than it did at the end of the regular season but I think he had enough of a taste playing for a borderline playoff team. At this point he has to want to play for a contending team, not one that's still years away.

So really when it comes to choosing between Embiid and Wiggins, it should only depend on the health of Embiid. If there's no injury red flags, you pretty much have to take him. If there is red flags then you go Wiggins (or Parker). I'm just scared Wiggins is only going to turn out like you said, Gerald Green. Maybe it was unrealistic to expect him to light it up, but his 1 year in college was kind of underwhelming. Especially when it came to Kansas' games in the tournament.

[ojandpizza]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Can someone explain to me how when the Hornets landed the 9th pick rather than Cleveland it automatically meant Cleveland ended up in the top 3??? Why couldn't they have just dropped somewhere between 4-8?


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[redsrule]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Can someone explain to me how when the Hornets landed the 9th pick rather than Cleveland it automatically meant Cleveland ended up in the top 3??? Why couldn't they have just dropped somewhere between 4-8?


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That was Detroit's pick. They were slotted eighth and anything above that the pick goes to Charlotte. Since Cleveland moved up it moved Detroit to #9 where the pick goes to Charlotte automatically from the Corey Maggette deal (because Joe Dumars is a ****ing moron).

[Melbournelad]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Hmm, interesting. It doesn't seem that crazy in theory. They had the highest probability of earning the #1 pick one year and the third highest probability another. They had a long shot this year and came through though, so I guess any other draft possibility combined with 1.5 is going to result in a crazy combined probability number.

Their 2011 #1 pick wasn't actually their own (their pick with the best chance ended up 4th and they took TT). It was from the Clippers in the Baron Davis trade and had the 8th best chance of winning the lottery. The probability of that pick winning in 2011 alone was miniscule. Let alone again in 2013 and now this year from an even worse position (9th). Unbelievable.

[Melbournelad]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Don't forget Shelden Williams,Devin Harris,Nickoloz Tskitishvili,Jonathan Bender,Tony Battie and others lol.

Devin Harris?

[Boltman]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Now that the order is set from the lottery, are there any good links to projected draft picks?

Just curious to see what the "gurus" have in mind. I've only seen one so far and I'm not feeling those pick predictions.

[VDusen04]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Clevelands odds of winning 3 of the past 4 #1's was 6/10000

start looking for them asteroids people.

I have no idea either. But I refuse to believe that this is just a matter of luck. I mean, the chances of them getting a number one pick 3 of 4 years are minuscule. I never been one of those guys that says that it's rigged every year, but this just isn't right.

Their 2011 #1 pick wasn't actually their own (their pick with the best chance ended up 4th and they took TT). It was from the Clippers in the Baron Davis trade and had the 8th best chance of winning the lottery. The probability of that pick winning in 2011 alone was miniscule. Let alone again in 2013 and now this year from an even worse position (9th). Unbelievable.

Hm, they had two lottery selections in 2011 then? At that point, instead of having the great chances that came with being as poor as they were (19.9%) they also added slightly thanks to the L.A. pick, pushing their #1 chance over 20%. So, they had the second best chance of landing the #1 pick on year (1/5) and the third best chance of winning the lottery the other (2013) with 2014 being the only real outlier.

I've been thinking about this a bit, and it's been a struggle because my grasp on probability is not what it should be. But my thought is, any time something really rare happens (like Cleveland winning the number one pick this year), won't that automatically yield crazy combined probabilities all over the place, just because every other number will always be combined with that 1.7%? Like, even if Cleveland had a 1/2 shot those each other years, combining them with the lucky draw in 2014 is going to make it seem incredible that they were able to win every year. When really, it's mostly just incredible they won this year.

To put it another way, when a long shot wins an NBA Champsionship (or any championship), if we were to combine their odds with the odds of the teams that won two other years (where favorites emerged victorious), it'd probably make that three year span seem incredibly improbable. For instance, I do not know the exact odds off hand (I tried looking up 2011's and found some different numbers) but at some point, Dallas' odds of winning in '11 were something like 18:1. I'm guessing the Heat have always had great odds since they've come together in 2010. So, to make a really clear look, the odds of the last three winners could be around:

18:1
2:1
2:1

And suddenly, because of the one year outlier, the probability of that three year span could be made to seem one of the most unlikely things in the world. We could say, "The chances of the Mavericks winning in '11 then the Heat in '12 and '13 is like, 1%." And sure, 1% is greater odds than Cleveland's run, but the point is Dallas' improbable championship drags the two Heat rings down with it if we were to group everything together, just as the Cavs lucking out last night drags down their other two entrants. It's not really that crazy that the Heat won in '12 and '13, just as it wasn't that crazy the Cavs won the top pick in '11 and '13. But presenting the probability by combining two solidly probable years with the one unlikely year seems to insinuate that something insane has been occurring all along, when really there is only one outlier.

But again, just as I mentioned last time, I'm struggling with this probability stuff, so I'm not sure if I make sense. Just trying to compute and come to an understanding here.

[ojandpizza]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

That was Detroit's pick. They were slotted eighth and anything above that the pick goes to Charlotte. Since Cleveland moved up it moved Detroit to #9 where the pick goes to Charlotte automatically from the Corey Maggette deal (because Joe Dumars is a ****ing moron).

Yeah I get that, why the Hornets got their pick. But why did it automatically mean Cleveland got a top 3 pick just because they moved down from 9? Why couldn't they have been 4-8? During the draft immediately after the 9th pick was announced they said "this means Cleveland is in the top 3". I just didn't understand how moving down from 9th automatically meant they were top 3 when there is 5 other spots between.


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[OSUFan_88]

Re: 2014 Draft Discussion

Yeah I get that, why the Hornets got their pick. But why did it automatically mean Cleveland got a top 3 pick just because they moved down from 9? Why couldn't they have been 4-8? During the draft immediately after the 9th pick was announced they said "this means Cleveland is in the top 3". I just didn't understand how moving down from 9th automatically meant they were top 3 when there is 5 other spots between.


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Because the team that "wins" the lottery means you get a top 3 pick. Those are the only slots that are open to being "won".

Which means you can either drop three spots or you can hop into the top three. Or stay where you were.

After Cleveland was gone at 9, that meant they had one of their lotto balls taken. Which meant they had a top 3 pick.