NFL Off Topic

Collapse

Recommended Videos

Collapse
This is a sticky topic.
X
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • N51_rob
    Faceuary!
    • Jul 2003
    • 14805

    #16411
    Re: NFL Off Topic

    Originally posted by CM Hooe
    Bear with me for a minute here: this makes sense once one understands how the system works.

    Visit ESPN for live scores, highlights and sports news. Stream exclusive games on ESPN and play fantasy sports.


    Background: among other things, Total QBR considers three factors that traditional passer rating does not: Expected Points Added, Win Probability Added, and Air Yards.

    Tom Brady got a grade of 3.8 for his contributions to his team's passing offense, 10th best in the league in Week 5. This grade considers that much of Tom Brady's passing yardage was yards after catch (I think his receivers had close to 200 yards of YAC). This grade also considers that much of the 3rd and 4th quarter was a blowout, so Brady's contributions weren't necessarily greatly contributing to his team's Win Probability because the Pats' WP was consistently 90% or greater in the second half.

    Tom Brady also earned a -3.8 grade for taking five sacks. Every one of these fives sacks came in the first half - while the game was still a meaningful contest - and a few of these sacks happened on 3rd down - which kills drives and results in the greatest decrease in Expected Points (compared to a loss of yards on 1st or 2nd down).

    ESPN appears to weigh the sacks taken portion of their calculation equally to the passing contribution, as Brady's -3.8 sacks grade completely cancels out his 3.8 passing grade, and he ends up with a negative total grade, which results in a low Total QBR.

    In comparison: Brandon Weeden didn't really ever try to go downfield and didn't throw a TD, and as such the passing component of Weeden's Total QBR was -0.1, second-worst in the league in Week 5. The main difference is that Weeden ran for a few first downs (he finished with a positive running grade, Brady had a running grade of -0.1) and he didn't take as many drive-killing sacks when the game was competitive. Weeden's grade is still bad, but it's not quite as bad because he was largely irrelevant, the plays he participated didn't really impact the game in a meaningful way, speaking to primary and second-level statistics.

    I think it's fair to say that Total QBR probably still needs some more tweaking - I'm not going to begin to argue that Brandon Weeden was better than Tom Brady last week, that's obviously absurd, Weeden didn't even throw a touchdown and the Cowboys passing offense was dreadful. But the Total QBR metric isn't absurd once one understands what it is attempting to quantify and how it arrives at the numbers it does. It is indeed a much more thorough measure of QB performance than passer rating, albeit not without its own flaws (traditional passer rating puts too much of an emphasis on high completion percentage and low INT percentage, and doesn't account for how much of the QB's passing yardage is YAC, for example).

    I know you're a guy who's into stuff like this and I am fine with what they are trying to quantify, but as you've said it has its own flaws. You swap QBs and Dallas wins that game going away Weeden just isn't/wasn't that good. Brady gets dinged for sacks but in a three step offense shouldn't more of that be weighted on the Oline and the quality of the Dallas pass rush. Like I said you're a guy who enjoys analysis of the game like this.

    Me I guess I'm old school, I watch the coaches film of 2-3 games a week plus the Redskins and Brady was the vastly superior QB given what was happening around him. QBR trying to say otherwise is asinine. Terrance Williams beat the defense a few times early in the game and Weeden never looked him up there were plays in the vertical passing game for Dallas but they were never attacked.

    Much like sabermetrics, QBR is fine to a point, but anyone watching the games can tell when and how it's flawed (as you pointed out). Every year there are games like this. I believe the year Big Ben win his last Super Bowl (or went can't recall) his QBR for the season was lower than Dan Orlovsky's to me something in their evaluations are lacking.
    Moderator
    PSN:gr8juan

    Twitch


    Finally Access to Coaches Tape! Coaches Film Analysis

    2 Minute Warning PS4 Madden 18 Franchise
    Washington Redskins (0-0) Last Game: N/A
    Year 1:

    Comment

    • ProfessaPackMan
      Bamma
      • Mar 2008
      • 63852

      #16412
      NFL Off Topic

      That's too much **** to read on Tapatalk. Thought OJ typed up another essay for a second, lol.

      Oh and this happened

      Steelers defensive lineman Cameron Heyward recently wanted to honor his late father, Craig, during his team’s Week Four game against the Ravens. And so he did, applying the words “Iron” and “Head” to his eye black.

      And, inevitably, Cam Heyward has been fined for the gesture.

      “Got fined for honoring my Dad who bravely fought cancer on my eye black,” Heyward said on Twitter.

      Heyward is the second Steeler this week to take issue with the league’s refusal to allow players to honor family members beyond the narrow exception for pink in the month of October. Running back DeAngelo Williams wanted to wear pink in his uniform all year to honor his mother, who died of breast cancer last year at the age of 53. The NFL said no.

      The league is being criticized for its stance as to Williams, and the league surely will be criticized for fining Heyward. While the league obviously needs to set barriers on when and how the uniform will be something other than, you know, uniform, the NFL has created this problem by allowing deviation from the concept of a uniform for two specific causes.

      They do it in October for breast cancer awareness, and they do it in November for the “Salute to Service.” While both are worthy causes, why does the NFL select those two but no others?

      How about prostate cancer? Colon cancer? Skin cancer? All three are deadly but preventable. How about one week in October for each of those causes?

      The NFL has invited these questions and any ensuing criticism by selecting two causes to the exclusion of all others. Maybe there should be a way to use the NFL platform to promote other causes, too.
      #RespectTheCulture

      Comment

      • Hooe
        Hall Of Fame
        • Aug 2002
        • 21554

        #16413
        Re: NFL Off Topic

        Originally posted by N51_rob
        I know you're a guy who's into stuff like this and I am fine with what they are trying to quantify, but as you've said it has its own flaws. You swap QBs and Dallas wins that game going away Weeden just isn't/wasn't that good. Brady gets dinged for sacks but in a three step offense shouldn't more of that be weighted on the Oline and the quality of the Dallas pass rush. Like I said you're a guy who enjoys analysis of the game like this.

        Me I guess I'm old school, I watch the coaches film of 2-3 games a week plus the Redskins and Brady was the vastly superior QB given what was happening around him. QBR trying to say otherwise is asinine. Terrance Williams beat the defense a few times early in the game and Weeden never looked him up there were plays in the vertical passing game for Dallas but they were never attacked.

        Much like sabermetrics, QBR is fine to a point, but anyone watching the games can tell when and how it's flawed (as you pointed out). Every year there are games like this. I believe the year Big Ben win his last Super Bowl (or went can't recall) his QBR for the season was lower than Dan Orlovsky's to me something in their evaluations are lacking.
        I hear you.

        I agree that the fact that Total QBR pins the blame for a sack entirely on a quarterback is pretty misleading; Greg Hardy was having his way with whoever the Patriots rotated on his side in the first half, be it Marcus Cannon or injured Nate Solder or whoever, and that's not Tom Brady's fault, particularly when he has one of the fastest average snap-to-throw times in the league at 2.06 seconds.

        All these new metrics also share a common problem in that they can't quantify what's going on pre-snap and none of them consider what the quarterback's exact responsibility on a given play, they can only look at the result of what happened and how that affects the quantified state of the game. (or if you're ProFootballFocus, in which case all the grades are completely subjective and still lacking this information).

        Comment

        • N51_rob
          Faceuary!
          • Jul 2003
          • 14805

          #16414
          Re: NFL Off Topic

          Just saw this was coming to post it as well Pack. NFL loves negative publicity with this cancer stuff and honoring dead parents. Fine was to be expected but just makes them look so bad.
          Moderator
          PSN:gr8juan

          Twitch


          Finally Access to Coaches Tape! Coaches Film Analysis

          2 Minute Warning PS4 Madden 18 Franchise
          Washington Redskins (0-0) Last Game: N/A
          Year 1:

          Comment

          • Bmore Irish
            The Future
            • Jul 2011
            • 3461

            #16415
            Re: NFL Off Topic

            Originally posted by CM Hooe
            Bear with me for a minute here: this makes sense once one understands how the system works.

            Visit ESPN for live scores, highlights and sports news. Stream exclusive games on ESPN and play fantasy sports.


            Background: among other things, Total QBR considers three factors that traditional passer rating does not: Expected Points Added, Win Probability Added, and Air Yards.

            Tom Brady got a grade of 3.8 for his contributions to his team's passing offense, 10th best in the league in Week 5. This grade considers that much of Tom Brady's passing yardage was yards after catch (I think his receivers had close to 200 yards of YAC). This grade also considers that much of the 3rd and 4th quarter was a blowout, so Brady's contributions weren't necessarily greatly contributing to his team's Win Probability because the Pats' WP was consistently 90% or greater in the second half.

            Tom Brady also earned a -3.8 grade for taking five sacks. Every one of these fives sacks came in the first half - while the game was still a meaningful contest - and a few of these sacks happened on 3rd down - which kills drives and results in the greatest decrease in Expected Points (compared to a loss of yards on 1st or 2nd down).

            ESPN appears to weigh the sacks taken portion of their calculation equally to the passing contribution, as Brady's -3.8 sacks grade completely cancels out his 3.8 passing grade, and he ends up with a negative total grade, which results in a low Total QBR.

            In comparison: Brandon Weeden didn't really ever try to go downfield and didn't throw a TD, and as such the passing component of Weeden's Total QBR was -0.1, second-worst in the league in Week 5. The main difference is that Weeden ran for a few first downs (he finished with a positive running grade, Brady had a running grade of -0.1) and he didn't take as many drive-killing sacks when the game was competitive. Weeden's grade is still bad, but it's not quite as bad because he was largely irrelevant, the plays he participated didn't really impact the game in a meaningful way, speaking to primary and second-level statistics.

            I think it's fair to say that Total QBR probably still needs some more tweaking - I'm not going to begin to argue that Brandon Weeden was better than Tom Brady last week, that's obviously absurd, Weeden didn't even throw a touchdown and the Cowboys passing offense was dreadful. But the Total QBR metric isn't absurd once one understands what it is attempting to quantify and how it arrives at the numbers it does. It is indeed a much more thorough measure of QB performance than passer rating, albeit not without its own flaws (traditional passer rating puts too much of an emphasis on high completion percentage and low INT percentage, and doesn't account for how much of the QB's passing yardage is YAC, for example).
            It reminds me of when PFF graded Rodgers huge game against the Chiefs at like -0.8 or something. Very similar reasoning with the YAC, a few poor decisions, etc.

            But that's why, while I find the advanced statistics interesting, I don't put too much stock into them. I think they can provide some interesting insight, but they're kind of meaningless without the proper context. Just can't boil down what happens on any given play to a number.

            Comment

            • razorkaos
              MVP
              • Aug 2011
              • 1177

              #16416
              Re: NFL Off Topic

              Originally posted by N51_rob
              Is there an official tablet of the NBA or headphones? Serious question don't follow the league much at all. Because the NFL makes millions off these type deals and 1/2 that money goes to the players which is the reason the shield is so stringent.

              Yeah, Microsoft Surface.
              PSN ID/Street Fighter V Fighter ID: razorkaos

              Comment

              • redsox4evur
                Hall Of Fame
                • Jul 2013
                • 18169

                #16417
                Re: NFL Off Topic

                That fan that got stabbed at Jerruh World died. Charges upped to murder.
                http://www.totalprosports.com/2015/1...tm_campaign=fb
                Follow me on Twitter

                Comment

                • steelerfan
                  MVP
                  • Jun 2003
                  • 4337

                  #16418
                  Re: NFL Off Topic

                  Stabbed? You mean shot.

                  Comment

                  • redsox4evur
                    Hall Of Fame
                    • Jul 2013
                    • 18169

                    #16419
                    Re: NFL Off Topic

                    Originally posted by steelerfan
                    Stabbed? You mean shot.
                    Yea...my bad. Was thinking of another news story I just saw.
                    Follow me on Twitter

                    Comment

                    • muggins
                      It is now the SW Era
                      • May 2003
                      • 5379

                      #16420
                      Re: NFL Off Topic

                      It's hard to keep track of all the prominent gun violence in America these days
                      Proud member of the OS Bills Backers.

                      BAD BOYS BAD BOYS

                      Comment

                      • wco81
                        Banned
                        • Jul 2002
                        • 3305

                        #16421
                        Re: NFL Off Topic

                        Does it seem like there are more serious incidents of violence between fans lately?

                        Comment

                        • ImTellinTim
                          YNWA
                          • Sep 2006
                          • 33028

                          #16422
                          Re: NFL Off Topic

                          Originally posted by wco81
                          Does it seem like there are more serious incidents of violence between fans lately?
                          It might seem like it, but who knows until you look at the numbers. You will definitely hear about more because everyone has a camera that takes videos and a Twitter account.

                          Comment

                          • N51_rob
                            Faceuary!
                            • Jul 2003
                            • 14805

                            #16423
                            Re: NFL Off Topic

                            Originally posted by ImTellinTim
                            It might seem like it, but who knows until you look at the numbers. You will definitely hear about more because everyone has a camera that takes videos and a Twitter account.

                            I remember the MNF game between the Eagles/Redskins at FedEx when Steve spurrier was the HC. Multiple brawls in the stands, cops used tear gas (or pepper spray can't recall). It as a zoo.

                            These days though guns and knives change things. I refuse to take my wife and child to a football game unless we are in a suite or have club level seats with friends. Not all stadiums are like that but these fights are no joke anymore boozed up losers looking for a reason to hurt someone is never a good thing.
                            Moderator
                            PSN:gr8juan

                            Twitch


                            Finally Access to Coaches Tape! Coaches Film Analysis

                            2 Minute Warning PS4 Madden 18 Franchise
                            Washington Redskins (0-0) Last Game: N/A
                            Year 1:

                            Comment

                            • ggsimmonds
                              Hall Of Fame
                              • Jan 2009
                              • 11235

                              #16424
                              Re: NFL Off Topic

                              So Sammy Watkins is bringing the diva WR back to the NFL: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13...d-lack-targets

                              In summary, he says don't throw to the open receiver, throw to Sammy Watkins.

                              You keep doing you Sammy, never change.

                              Comment

                              • razorkaos
                                MVP
                                • Aug 2011
                                • 1177

                                #16425
                                Re: NFL Off Topic

                                Originally posted by ggsimmonds
                                So Sammy Watkins is bringing the diva WR back to the NFL: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13...d-lack-targets

                                In summary, he says don't throw to the open receiver, throw to Sammy Watkins.

                                You keep doing you Sammy, never change.


                                He's a crybaby. He's more preoccupied with his stats than with his team. C'mon, it's time for someone to tell him that he plays for the Bills, it's not the Bills that play for him.



                                I would throw this guy on the bench without thinking twice, and he wouldn't see the field untill he learned his lesson
                                PSN ID/Street Fighter V Fighter ID: razorkaos

                                Comment

                                Working...