CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

[Caulfield]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

NYC was screwed either way I think. Particularly with the nursing home mismanagement, which Sweden actually had similar problems. The panic and ignorance early on in NYC played a key role. People feared going to the hospital because they didn't know any better. They were reading the news.

But yeah, the idea of herd immunity in the USA is such a long term and abstract thing. If you think of COVID as water, Sweden is like filling up a pool, while the USA is like a wide canyon with varying degrees of depth. Not the best analogy, but it highlights the oddity of a country of nearly 4 million square miles having some kind of continuity when it comes to the spread of a virus.

yeah, just the fact it's twice as large as the second largest US city put it behind the 8-ball right from the get-go


heck it's population is larger than 2 and 3 combined (LA & Chicago)

[NYJets]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

yeah, just the fact it's twice as large as the second largest US city put it behind the 8-ball right from the get-go


heck it's population is larger than 2 and 3 combined (LA & Chicago)

This and getting hit first before there was much testing. By the time one person actually tested positive it was too late.


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[Master Live 013]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.



https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223

[JayhawkerStL]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

A new study found that the morons that attended the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally were responsible for about 267,000 COVID infections, which is 19% of the 1.4 million new cases of COVID documented in the US between August 2 and September 2, 2020.

The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally represents a situation where many of the “worst case scenarios” for superspreading occurred simultaneously: the event was prolonged, included individuals packed closely together, involved a large out-of-town population (a population that was orders of magnitude larger than the local population), and had low compliance with recommended infection countermeasures such as the use of masks. The only large factors working to prevent the spread of infection was the outdoor venue, and low population density in the state of South Dakota

We are further able to document national spread due to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, although that spread also appears to have been successfully mitigated by states with strict infection mitigation policies. In counties with the largest relative inflow to the event, the per 1,000 case rate increased by 10.7 percent after 24 days following the onset of Sturgis Pre-Rally Events. Multiplying the percent case increases for the high, moderate-high and moderate inflow counties by each county’s respective pre-rally cumulative COVID-19 cases and aggregating, yields a total of 263,708 additional cases in these locations due to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally. Adding the number of new cases due to the Rally in South Dakota estimated by synthetic control (3.6 per 1,000 population, scaled by the South Dakota population of approximately 858,000) brings the total number of cases to 266,796 or 19 percent of 1.4 million new cases of COVID-19 in the United States between August 2nd 2020 and September 2nd 2020.

If we conservatively assume that all of these cases were non-fatal, then these cases represent a cost of over $12.2 billion, based on the statistical cost of a COVID-19 case of $46,000 estimated by Kniesner and Sullivan (2020). This is enough to have paid each of the estimated 462,182 rally attendees $26,553.64 not to attend. This is by no means an accurate accounting of the true externality cost of the event, as it counts those who attended and were infected as part of the externality when their costs are likely internalized. 29 However, this calculation is nonetheless useful as it provides a ballpark estimate as to how large of an externality a single superspreading event can impose, and a sense of how valuable restrictions on mass gatherings can be in this context. Even if half of the new cases were attendees, the implied externality is still quite large. Finally, our descriptive evidence suggests that stricter mitigation policies in other locations may contribute to limiting externality exposure due to the behavior of non-compliant events and those who travel to them.

[PeoplesChampGB]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

A new study found that the morons that attended the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally were responsible for about 267,000 COVID infections, which is 19% of the 1.4 million new cases of COVID documented in the US between August 2 and September 2, 2020.

I find that study hard to believe if the protests, which had 40x more people, supposedly did less spreading.

[mestevo]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I find that study hard to believe if the protests, which had 40x more people, supposedly did less spreading.

Nobody is making that point, got a link?

[PeoplesChampGB]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Nobody is making that point, got a link?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/07/01/research-determines-protests-did-not-cause-spike-in-coronavirus-cases/#7e62c6cd7dac

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/black-lives-matter-protests-didnt-contribute-to-covid19-surge

https://www.modernhealthcare.com/saf...coronavirus-us

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-07-01/experts-see-little-evidence-that-protests-spread-coronavirus

That's just from the first page of google.

[mestevo]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybe.../#7e62c6cd7dac

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/black-lives-matter-protests-didnt-contribute-to-covid19-surge

https://www.modernhealthcare.com/saf...coronavirus-us

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-07-01/experts-see-little-evidence-that-protests-spread-coronavirus

That's just from the first page of google.

Ok, and your answer (among others), from the very first one (though I'm sure the others make the same points):

In fact, they determined that, based on cellphone data, “cities which had protests saw an increase in social distancing behavior for the overall population relative to cities that did not,” leading to “modest evidence of a small longer-run case growth decline.”

Protests are also largely local events, while the Sturgis event was attended by people all over.

What is confusing you about what those say and what Jay posted?

[dubcity]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

No one really wanted to do a legit in-depth study tracing all the spread from the protests because it gets into an uncomfortable social/political area, along with the logistics being overwhelming. Using the cell phone mobility data as some legit evidence of anything when it comes to spread of an infectious disease is pretty silly.

Sturgis on the other hand is an easy/safe target, along with mass prayers and religious events. It's the nature of the politicization of all this.

[PeoplesChampGB]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Ok, and your answer (among others), from the very first one (though I'm sure the others make the same points):

In fact, they determined that, based on cellphone data, “cities which had protests saw an increase in social distancing behavior for the overall population relative to cities that did not,” leading to “modest evidence of a small longer-run case growth decline.”

Protests are also largely local events, while the Sturgis event was attended by people all over.

What is confusing you about what those say and what Jay posted?

The fact that video evidence suggests that they were not social distancing in the least. And the fact that contact tracing didn't require them to ask if they had acted in a protest, which has already been covered in this thread.

We also have data that protests are attended from people outside of the city or state as well.

[mestevo]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

The fact that video evidence suggests that they were not social distancing in the least. And the fact that contact tracing didn't require them to ask if they had acted in a protest, which has already been covered in this thread.

We also have data that protests are attended from people outside of the city or state as well.

You're not understanding what you quoted. Protests resulted in data that suggests the general population practiced more social distancing.

Which is just 1 point in the studies you linked.

Also, again, nobody has said this was worse than protests. That certainly wouldn't be a stretch though - which protests were worse than 365,000 people from around the country gathering for 10 days with little social distancing or mask usage?

[JayhawkerStL]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

[bigfnjoe96]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

AstraZenica vaccine trial put on hold after UK participants suffers serious side effect.

https://www-bloomberg-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-08/astrazeneca-shares-fall-on-report-of-vaccine-trial-setback?usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D&amp_js_v=0.1#aoh=15996139787355&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2020-09-08%2Fastrazeneca-shares-fall-on-report-of-vaccine-trial-setback

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[p_rushing]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

AstraZenica vaccine trial put on hold after UK participants suffers serious side effect.

https://www-bloomberg-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-08/astrazeneca-shares-fall-on-report-of-vaccine-trial-setback?usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D&amp_js_v=0.1#aoh=15996139787355&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2020-09-08%2Fastrazeneca-shares-fall-on-report-of-vaccine-trial-setback

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Unless they can identify the cause or FDA is willing to push it through, that probably puts them out of a vaccine this year.

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[PeoplesChampGB]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

You're not understanding what you quoted. Protests resulted in data that suggests the general population practiced more social distancing.

Which is just 1 point in the studies you linked.

Also, again, nobody has said this was worse than protests. That certainly wouldn't be a stretch though - which protests were worse than 365,000 people from around the country gathering for 10 days with little social distancing or mask usage?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/02/sturgis-rally-death-coronavirus/

As of Sept 2 (The latest article I can find), there have only been 260 known cases from the Sturgis rally. And yes, I know that the article states that it is an under count because people are resistant to testing and contact tracing, but the protests were the same way.