CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

[pietasterp]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I know that is the way it is being portrayed, but I don't really believe it's the case.

I think what most people are saying (which if we're being honest, is the same thing that public health officials are saying), is that there isn't one finish line that once you achieve the flat curve the race is then over. It's an ongoing process because there is this resistance line that the curve will keep trying to break until our ability to mitigate it overwhelms the upwards expansion of that curve.

To come full circle, I kind of think of it like this. One of the reasons that Ebola never became wide spread in the US is because of our ability to detect and identify it early before it had a chance to spread. Despite the curve flattening in some cases through mitigation efforts it doesn't really seem like we are close to having the ability to detect covid19 on a scale anywhere near what we need to keep it contained and manageable.

I don't necessarily disagree with your general premise, but I have to comment on the Ebola comparison. The reason Ebola never became widespread is because while severe (with a mortality rate of ~50%), it is not actually that easy to contract. Infected people don’t spread the virus until they start showing symptoms, and even then the virus is hard to catch because it is spread through direct contact with the bodily fluid of an infected person (blood, sweat, urine) rather than through the kind of particles produced when someone sneezes. Unless you are dealing closely with infected bodily fluids for some reason, it’s unlikely you’d acquire the infection.

Ebola also tends to cause pretty severe and identifiable symptoms (fever, fatigue, vomiting, diarrhea). Not only can infected people not spread the virus until they’re sick, but once they become sick, they will definitely know it. This makes it easier to identify and isolate infected individuals and protect health care workers to limit the spread (even without testing or complex contact tracing).

The issue with SARS-CoV-2 is that it is in that odd niche of very contagious with a long incubation period and lots of asymptomatic infected.

[JayhawkerStL]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

1) I feel like some have moved the goal posts from bending the curve to trying to prevent every death. That is simply not going to happen.

2) I also feel like there is one side that is "We are going to open up and do whatever we want" and a side that is "The government should dictate everything we do" and I am caught in the middle shaking my head at both of them.

I wish the side advocating for how many deaths were acceptable would provide more clarity on what they expect. I don’t like the idea of opening states and then explaining the consequences.

But I remember when 60K was the number. Now it’s 134K. When we blow by that, are the open up the states people going to tout just 300K?

Because the White House model included the possibility of a 200K single day death total. What’s the number we are okay with now, before we see how bad things get, when we have time for different options.

I feel like they are treating us like boiling frogs.

[KSUowls]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I don't necessarily disagree with your general premise, but I have to comment on the Ebola comparison. The reason Ebola never became widespread is because while severe (with a mortality rate of ~50%), it is not actually that easy to contract. Infected people don’t spread the virus until they start showing symptoms, and even then the virus is hard to catch because it is spread through direct contact with the bodily fluid of an infected person (blood, sweat, urine) rather than through the kind of particles produced when someone sneezes. Unless you are dealing closely with infected bodily fluids for some reason, it’s unlikely you’d acquire the infection.

Ebola also tends to cause pretty severe and identifiable symptoms (fever, fatigue, vomiting, diarrhea). Not only can infected people not spread the virus until they’re sick, but once they become sick, they will definitely know it. This makes it easier to identify and isolate infected individuals and protect health care workers to limit the spread (even without testing or complex contact tracing).

The issue with SARS-CoV-2 is that it is in that odd niche of very contagious with a long incubation period and lots of asymptomatic infected.

Sorry, yeah that's what I meant by us having the ability to identify it. One of the discussion points early on was about how things like Ebola were much worse than covid, but the answer was never about which was more deadly, it was about which could be spread easier. I just meant to liken it to that discussion point people were having 2-3 months ago, and that the reality of the virus' ability to spread unchecked hasn't changed with our current infrastructure.

[kehlis]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I look forward to when we are talking about the curve as it pertains to a pitch type.

[PeoplesChampGB]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I wish the side advocating for how many deaths were acceptable would provide more clarity on what they expect. I don’t like the idea of opening states and then explaining the consequences.

But I remember when 60K was the number. Now it’s 134K. When we blow by that, are the open up the states people going to tout just 300K?

Because the White House model included the possibility of a 200K single day death total. What’s the number we are okay with now, before we see how bad things get, when we have time for different options.

I feel like they are treating us like boiling frogs.

Bending the curve was never about preventing X amount of deaths. The objective of bending the curve is to prevent the hospitalization and the death total from piling on all at once.

I hate to be so blunt, but that was the only way I could think of to say it.

People were okay until that curve was bent. Now they are getting restless and feel like they are getting misled.

[TheShizNo1]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

So the objective of limiting exposure to the virus was to make sure deaths didn't pile up........ brilliant.

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[PeoplesChampGB]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

So the objective of limiting exposure to the virus was to make sure deaths didn't pile up........ brilliant.

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It only makes sense, unless you are expecting a good vaccine to come out next week instead of eighteen months from now. Obviously you can't shut down the economy for that period of time.

That is why Sweden is trying the opposite approach with herd immunity. They think they can handle the sudden spike and can make it over the cliff to see the sharp decline, while not wrecking the economy in the meantime.

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

And already, in Sweden, the lockdown chief can't believe how many deaths they have encountered.

Sweden's mortality rate currently stands at 12.2%.

And then there is this:

Data released from the country’s central bank and a leading Swedish think tank show that the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors.

Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, gave two possible scenarios for the economic outlook in 2020, both are bleak.

So, based on that information, I would say that Sweden's outcome so far isn't what they expected with "herd immunity."

[bhurst99]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I have to admit I'm confused by the concept of herd immunity.

According to Wikipedia, there's 328 million people in the United States.

Without a vaccine you would need about 60 per cent of the population to be infected to achieve herd immunity. Some studies say it would need to be a higher percentage but let's say 60 per cent.

Sixty per cent of 328 million people is about 197 million people. So 197 million people would need to be infected.

Let's say the death rate is way lower than 1 per cent. It sounds like some people who recover can expect permanent lung damage but let's forget about that for a moment.

So let's say the death rate is 0.5 per cent. So if 197 million were infected (which would certainly overwhelm hospitals) that's about 985,000 deaths. Have I got that right?

I'm not trying to start an argument. I'm just having difficulty understanding the concept of herd immunity.

[dickey1331]

CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I wish the side advocating for how many deaths were acceptable would provide more clarity on what they expect. I don’t like the idea of opening states and then explaining the consequences.



But I remember when 60K was the number. Now it’s 134K. When we blow by that, are the open up the states people going to tout just 300K?



Because the White House model included the possibility of a 200K single day death total. What’s the number we are okay with now, before we see how bad things get, when we have time for different options.



I feel like they are treating us like boiling frogs.

You either eventually reopen the country while being ok with people dying or we all stay locked down until 2021. Which option do you want? Which option is more realistic?


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[JayhawkerStL]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Bending the curve was never about preventing X amount of deaths. The objective of bending the curve is to prevent the hospitalization and the death total from piling on all at once.

I hate to be so blunt, but that was the only way I could think of to say it.

People were okay until that curve was bent. Now they are getting restless and feel like they are getting misled.

That’s not totally true. There was no plan that said we should half-*** social distancing for a couple months and then open up with new cases so prevalent that test and trace was impossible.

If we had a real shutdown for 4-6 weeks, we could box in the virus and test and trace while we open. But that would have requited us to have spent this time getting testing and tracing up to speed. We didn’t.

The only other option is what we did the last 8 weeks indefinitely. It prevents cases from surging, but limits our ability to move around. That’s what Gottlieb called the new normal, about 2000 (TWO THOUSAND) deaths a day for as long as it takes to get a vaccine. Every relaxation of distancing adds to the total. The conservative IHME model sees that moving up to 3000 a day by June with what we’ve done so far. But at least deaths stay consistent.

The option we see states choosing now was never an option, which was after weak mitigation effort, they just open up and say things will be good. This is going to cause new cases to surge and pretty much assured us that we will have troops in the streets keeping us in sooner than later.

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

You either eventually reopen the country while being ok with people dying or we all stay locked down until 2021. Which option do you want? Which option is more realistic?


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Nah, that's too black and white with little in between.

There is no price on human life.

Even the white house is telling people that are vulnerable or elderly to stay inside.

You slowly roll out the economy and proceed cautiously. If there is a another outbreak, you quickly respond and lock it up again.

It will be a delicate balance of turning the economy on and off if there are more outbreaks.

I'll go out when I feel it's safe enough on my terms, not anyone else's.

And I will bet anyone that there will be some people will not comply with the social distancing once there is a slow rollout. That is already happening in some states that have opened.

My wife's company isn't taking any chances. Once the state opens for them, they will invite only people that need to return, like the assembly people. She is part of a group that won't be back till fall or early winter because she is able to work remotely.

I don't think it's going to be life as we knew it until 2021.

[Scott]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I’m just waiting for stuff to slowly open up and infected numbers sky rocket.


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[dickey1331]

CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Nah, that's too black and white with little in between.

There is no price on human life.

Even the white house is telling people that are vulnerable or elderly to stay inside.

You slowly roll out the economy and proceed cautiously. If there is a another outbreak, you quickly respond and lock it up again.

It will be a delicate balance of turning the economy on and off if there are more outbreaks.

I'll go out when I feel it's safe enough on my terms, not anyone else's.

And I will bet anyone that there will be some people will not comply with the social distancing once there is a slow rollout. That is already happening in some states that have opened.

My wife's company isn't taking any chances. Once the state opens for them, they will invite only people that need to return, like the assembly people. She is part of a group that won't be back till fall or early winter because she is able to work remotely.

I don't think it's going to be life as we knew it until 2021.

I agree. If you don’t feel comfortable then don’t go out. Of course our jobs might see things differently. Even if they did reopen things it doesn’t mean you have to go out or you should even go out but eventually people need money. I live on an island where my life hasn’t changed mainly cuz I never went anywhere anyway so it’s hard to know what’s going on in the lower 48. I’m sure if I lived in NYC my views might be different.


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[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I agree. If you don’t feel comfortable then don’t go out. Of course our jobs might see things differently. Even if they did reopen things it doesn’t mean you have to go out or you should even go out but eventually people need money. I live on an island where my life hasn’t changed mainly cuz I never went anywhere anyway so it’s hard to know what’s going on in the lower 48. I’m sure if I lived in NYC my views might be different.


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There are four counties in the state of WI that don't have any cases at all and some counties have very few. The south central, the north east(Green Bay) and SE part of the state is where all the hot spots are. We happen to live in the SE part of the state between Milwaukee and Chicago and those are two hot spots at the moment.

If you open up parts of the state and close off the others, you run the risk of folks like us(we wouldn't ) of going to the next county that is open.

It should be interesting how all this plays out in the short term and the long term