CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

[PeoplesChampGB]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

That’s not totally true. There was no plan that said we should half-*** social distancing for a couple months and then open up with new cases so prevalent that test and trace was impossible.

If we had a real shutdown for 4-6 weeks, we could box in the virus and test and trace while we open. But that would have requited us to have spent this time getting testing and tracing up to speed. We didn’t.

The only other option is what we did the last 8 weeks indefinitely. It prevents cases from surging, but limits our ability to move around. That’s what Gottlieb called the new normal, about 2000 (TWO THOUSAND) deaths a day for as long as it takes to get a vaccine. Every relaxation of distancing adds to the total. The conservative IHME model sees that moving up to 3000 a day by June with what we’ve done so far. But at least deaths stay consistent.

The option we see states choosing now was never an option, which was after weak mitigation effort, they just open up and say things will be good. This is going to cause new cases to surge and pretty much assured us that we will have troops in the streets keeping us in sooner than later.

The only way you do that is if you literally shut down everything. That is out of the realm of possibility.

Anyway, I wonder how many people have changed their minds from car pooling or mass transit after this?

[KSUowls]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I have to admit I'm confused by the concept of herd immunity.

According to Wikipedia, there's 328 million people in the United States.

Without a vaccine you would need about 60 per cent of the population to be infected to achieve herd immunity. Some studies say it would need to be a higher percentage but let's say 60 per cent.

Sixty per cent of 328 million people is about 197 million people. So 197 million people would need to be infected.

Let's say the death rate is way lower than 1 per cent. It sounds like some people who recover can expect permanent lung damage but let's forget about that for a moment.

So let's say the death rate is 0.5 per cent. So if 197 million were infected (which would certainly overwhelm hospitals) that's about 985,000 deaths. Have I got that right?

I'm not trying to start an argument. I'm just having difficulty understanding the concept of herd immunity.

From my, admittedly, basic understanding you wouldn't necessarily need 60% of 330 million to achieve herd immunity. You just need to achieve a state where the chances of 1 infected person infecting another (who doesn't have antibodies) are low in a given area. That percentage is probably much different in rural Alabama than it is in New York City. At least that's my understanding of it. I'm sure that the numbers are still staggering though.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I think the "end the lockdowns now!" people are assuming that there's a huge pent-up consumer demand waiting to be unleashed that will help get re-opened businesses back on their feet once the lockdowns are rolled back....which doesn't seem likely to me. Lots of people are going to be understandably leery of going to restaurants, clubs, bars, clothing stores, etc. for the foreseeable future. The economy would be getting slammed regardless.

You're going back to normal again once you have a good epidemiological plan in place, but that's not in the cards until we have mass testing and contact tracing in place, which we don't right now.

[slickdtc]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Yeah, the economy is not going to come roaring back when things open back up. It’ll be a slow trickle, at best.

I’m not jumping at the chance to go to a restaurant, sporting event, or concert. Demand will be lighter. Businesses that are on the verge of shuttering due to being closed the last 1-2 months will probably still end up failing.

The big clash will be people having to return to their jobs on-site. I expect some ugly stories to come out of this conundrum.

For me, pretty much keeping status quo through the reopening, sitting back and seeing what happens before I’ll be comfortable to return to normal activity. It’s odd, I think rushing to return to social activities is foolish but we also need some folks to do so to provide a litmus test.

[NDAlum]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I think the "end the lockdowns now!" people are assuming that there's a huge pent-up consumer demand waiting to be unleashed that will help get re-opened businesses back on their feet once the lockdowns are rolled back....which doesn't seem likely to me. Lots of people are going to be understandably leery of going to restaurants, clubs, bars, clothing stores, etc. for the foreseeable future. The economy would be getting slammed regardless.

You're going back to normal again once you have a good epidemiological plan in place, but that's not in the cards until we have mass testing and contact tracing in place, which we don't right now.

I'm gonna be one of those sipping my drink watching from afar to see how the human test dummy wannabies fare with all this...

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Agreed, ND and this is one of the big reasons why I will join you in that drink when it's safer, lol. None of the 40 states that have partially reopened have met the criteria of the federal guidelines. Some states have met the 14 day decline.

"The first is to see the number of new cases decline for at least two weeks, and some states have met that criteria. But there are three other criteria and we suggest they should all be met," Rivers said.

They include having enough resources to conduct contact tracing on new cases, enough diagnostic testing to test everybody with Covid-like symptoms and "enough health care system capacity to treat everyone safely."

But the US hasn't done enough to protect people from the coronavirus pandemic, said Dr. Richard Besser, former acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It must overcome major obstacles to help prevent a resurgence of coronavirus, he said.

"We don't have the testing capacity now to know where this disease is," Besser said. "We have not scaled up the thousands and thousands of contact tracers that we need, we don't provide safe places for people to isolate or quarantine."

It will take weeks to learn how many new cases and deaths emerge after states start easing restrictions.

[Sportsforever]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I know there is a lot of hand wringing about what Sweden has done/is doing, but yesterday I saw that the WHO’s top emergency response expert (a doctor from Ireland) said they are looking at Sweden for how future responses should be handled. People are all over the map...


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[countryboy]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I know there is a lot of hand wringing about what Sweden has done/is doing, but yesterday I saw that the WHO’s top emergency response expert (a doctor from Ireland) said they are looking at Sweden for how future responses should be handled. People are all over the map...


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And that is part of the problem. One health official/organization says one thing, but a different health official/organization says something completely different.

How is the general public and the governors of states supposed to make informed safe decisions when those who they look to for guidance can't even agree amongst themselves what is the right path to take?

It's one reason why I've moved to the idea of while I understand the severity of the virus and the anxiety surrounding it, that its time to start taking baby steps in regards to opening things back up and returning to "normal".

[Phobia]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I think it's safe to say, this highlights that these so called health officials/organizations are not much different than a meteorologist.

Making guesses based on forecast data.

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Mark Cuban(thinking along similar lines)

The "Fabric of Who We Are" is being innovative, entrepreneurial and resilient. That Fabric will lead us to create new companies & opportunities that recognize the changes Covid has forced on our world. Pretending things will return to how they were 10 weeks ago is a huge mistake

[slickdtc]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I think it's safe to say, this highlights that these so called health officials/organizations are not much different than a meteorologist.



Making guesses based on forecast data.

Well educated, but guesses all the same. I weight their opinions heavier, but you also have to use your own best judgement. Doctors are not gods.

Health officials, whether they say to open up or lock down, are just making recommendations. This whole pandemic evolves every day. What was the best course of action yesterday may be a total disaster today.

You are your best advocate when dealing with healthcare. That applies here too. Consume the information, make choices on how you’re personally going to reopen your life’s activities. Of course, companies recalling everyone back to the office is a situation where some of your agency is taken away — show up or you’re fired, not too much of a choice there. That’s going to be the big battle.

[KG]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I think it's safe to say, this highlights that these so called health officials/organizations are not much different than a meteorologist.

Making guesses based on forecast data.

I think that’s a lil disingenuous and part of the larger problem, everyone thinks they’re an “expert” when in fact there are “expert opinions” that far outweigh mine and should be taken with more credibility.

The fact of the matter is that this a complex problem with a serious set of side effects (economical, health, etc...). The various governments across the world have their hands full weighing these decisions. Just look at us, FEMA is technically the lead on COVID response but they lean heavily on the CDC, HHS, and FDA to name a few. Throw in the states and the challenge becomes magnified x50 plus the territories.

The whole thing is a mess and points to larger problems within the gov’t but the focus should be on protecting the people first.


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[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Interesting knowledge regarding "herd immunity"

Julia Heck, PhD
@AnEpidemiolgst

This is dangerously inaccurate. There is no such thing as "partial herd immunity" with 20% immune. Herd immunity will not happen until we are somewhere above 70%.

That will take awhile for Sweden and much longer for the US, I presume.

[p_rushing]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

And that is part of the problem. One health official/organization says one thing, but a different health official/organization says something completely different.

How is the general public and the governors of states supposed to make informed safe decisions when those who they look to for guidance can't even agree amongst themselves what is the right path to take?

It's one reason why I've moved to the idea of while I understand the severity of the virus and the anxiety surrounding it, that its time to start taking baby steps in regards to opening things back up and returning to "normal".

I think it's safe to say, this highlights that these so called health officials/organizations are not much different than a meteorologist.

Making guesses based on forecast data.

Too many of them want to live in a lab where everything is controlled and isolated. They want to test everything with a double blind study. That's great before or after the fact, but during the crisis you need to focus on what is working whether you know why or not. You can figure out the why later. HCQ works on some people, but yet they say it doesn't because they don't know why. There are other drugs that also work.

Then they turn around and fast track a vaccine that has shown the same mixed results, but it's new, patented, and not going to be available for cheap. Then plenty of higher ups have relations between the drug company.

[pietasterp]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Then they turn around and fast track a vaccine that has shown the same mixed results, but it's new, patented, and not going to be available for cheap. Then plenty of higher ups have relations between the drug company.

Not agreeing or disagreeing with your overall statements, just as a point of clarification, the approval was for remdesivir, which is an antiviral medication, not a vaccine. The approval is also temporary.

But I agree that the clinical results are hard to interpret at this point.