|
Quote: |
|
|
|
|
Originally Posted by CM Hooe |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Streakiness is inherent in random probabilities over arbitrary lengths time. It has nothing to do with intentionally or accidentally coding something one way or another. It's simple probability math.
Flip a coin ten times. I guarantee you that you will get two heads or two tails in a row somewhere in that sequence at least once. In fact, In fact, I am going to guess you get multiple streaks at least length of two in that set. Here's a website which will do it for you, for convenience.
While the odds of either side of a coin on a single flip are obviously 50%, getting ten flips in a row where the side always alternates is abysmal. Think about it: getting two heads on two flips means you need to be right twice (P(H) = 0.5; 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.25). Each time you flip the coin while seeking a specific order, your odds of seeing that order get cut in half. So ten coin flips where the order is HTHTHTHTHT is (1 / 2^10 = 0.000977); add in the probability of ten flips where the order is THTHTHTHTH (1 / 2^10 = 0.000977) and you end up with a really small chance of getting what you want (.000977 * 2 = .001954; aka 0.1954% chance).
Meanwhile if you just ask for five heads on ten coin flips in any order, your odds are still lower than 50% but much better (if I'm doing my combinatorics math correctly: there are 252 total ways to flip 10 coins and get five heads in any order (10 choose 5 = 252), and 1024 unique result strings of ten coin flips (2 ^ 10), so 252 / 1024 = 0.246 = 24.6%).
Over a long time the dice rolls in Madden are surely balanced, but over the course of single games getting a bunch of dice rolls in favor of one side or another is going to happen. That's not "wrong". That's randomness at work.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Very well thought out and very well written! The funny thing is that I have never experienced this phenomenon happen to me or for me. Sure, I've seen "momentum" shift in games, via turnovers or poor play-calling, but this "dice roll" that says who's going to win after the first quarter... never seen it.
Part of the reason may be the way I choose to play the game. I've been a long time
NCAA guy, having barely played
Madden. The
Madden 2002 was the last one I bought until now, if that tells you something.
Anyway, loving college football so much, and seeing the various offenses that work so well and how coaches approach things totally different from the norm, got me thinking...
I am a
HUGE fan of
Mike Leach. His playbook is small. He installs his entire offense in just
3 days. Then... it's just repetition, the same guys running the same plays over and over and over. He also never "flips" plays, because, in his words, you have to teach everybody
TWO routes to run. Instead, he just teaches them a new play.
So when I got
Madden, I had my
Mike Leach hat on and created an offense that's as close to the
Air Raid as I could get, with a small sampling of
Run & Shoot plays in there as well.
My playbook is small. There are the same plays run out of different formations, but it's just a small playbook. Now, I know that these are computer guys, not real life guys, but my experience so far as shown that this "Less is More" approach really does pay off and it works.
I throw a lot! If you know
Leach, then you get the idea. However, I strategically plan my running plays and almost always gain at least
4-5 yards. And I only have three running plays in the playbook:
HB Dive,
HB Slam, and
Counter. That's it.
But, every game my back will go over
100 yards. Sometimes he's on fire and will go for
140 or
150, other times he'll get
103 or
107.
The point is, with this offense, I feel like I am in control. The only thing that kills me is if I turn the ball over multiple times, but since I'm now playing
Madden, and these are NFL QB's, turnovers are rare.
So my advice to those suffering from this "dice roll" thing, simplify things, make your playbook smaller. My plays are all legit plays, there's no cheese involved, it's just simple football and using the smaller playbook and using the same plays out of various formations, the defense has difficulty in figuring out what I'm going to run.
So... simplify people... simplify! You don't need
300 plays at your disposal!