Beware The Ides Of March For The NFL Exclusive License

[PRAY IV M3RCY]

Quote: Originally Posted by Big FN Deal

I hear you but I feel that NFL2k5 was ahead of its' time, being a more realistically challenging version of NFL football at a time when so many gamers were accustomed to a less realistic brand of football. To tell you the truth, it was the real network broadcast presentation that first lured me to NFL2k and the game play just sort of grew on me over time. Now with the entire sports simulation gaming genre being more about authenticity, I think a 2k football game building on the realism in APF2k8 and the real world broadcast presentation of NFL2k5/NBA2k would be much more appealing to the masses in 2012. The Show, NHL and NBA2k beat out there respective competition by being the most realistic representations of their sports, not by being "fun" arcade games or even hybrids.

My biggest fear is EA and the NFL renegotiating their contract to benefit EA. I only see one company that is willing to make an offer to the NFL and thats 2k. I will ask you what is your take on the NFL lincense not being as exclusive as we have been told to believe? Say 2k can still get the NFL license but they would have to release the game a couple of months after EA.

[Big FN Deal]

Quote: Originally Posted by PRAY IV M3RCY

My biggest fear is EA and the NFL renegotiating their contract to benefit EA. I only see one company that is willing to make an offer to the NFL and thats 2k. I will ask you what is your take on the NFL lincense not being as exclusive as we have been told to believe? Say 2k can still get the NFL license but they would have to release the game a couple of months after EA.

I don't think that negotiation happens because EA is in the drivers seat so I don't see them paying more for an exclusive than what the NFL can make with an open license to multiple companies. As far as 2k or some other company waiting a couple months, I know HipHop Gamer was talking about that but I have no idea how valid it is. I don't believe any of that will matter after this season because, again, I think the NFL exclusive is done after the Super Bowl in 2014.

The bullet points for why I think this is it for the exclusive are;

-The NFL had to leverage EA's desire for a reduced cost of the exclusive license in the lockout year to get them to renew even for one year the last time.

-We have never seen the exclusive get this close to expiring without a renewal.

-The ROI on the exclusive likely isn't worth it, given not only the cost of the license but the legal fees for defending against all manner of lawsuits and with games like NBA2k, The Show and even EA's own NHL demonstrating a better business model, probably with lower overhead, for eliminating the competition through investment in creating the best product.

-EA seems to have invested revenue in trying to make EA Football a quality brand for G4 with the acquisition of Kolbe from The Show, other personnel moves and changes in development structure.

-EA doesn't need it because they likely have a huge developmental head start on any other company looking to make football games.

Anyway, time will tell, March 2014 or an exclusive license renewal, whichever happens first, lol.

[reddogmaddogbul]

My guess Ea will renew the exclusive license.You guys got to remember that they dont have to pay for the exclusive rights to Ncaa football via lawsuit.With that being the case EA should have the extra money to give the money hungry NFL/Roger Goodell what they want.(Side Note)I actually think that the lawyers that was representing the people SOLD OUT!!

[RogueHominid]

Quote: Originally Posted by Nunyerbiz

If you are talking about an 'exclusive' NFL license, this simply isn't true. EA will give up the exclusive NFL license the nano-second that they believe it is in their best financial interests to do so. Whether that happens in the near future remains to be seen. If the EA bean counters analyze and project their sales numbers versus licensing costs and come to the conclusion that selling less units with competition is more profitable than selling more units with a massive upfront non-compete contract with the NFL... then they allow others back into the market. It's that easy. I believe that 2K could have an NFL product on the shelves, and make money, for the 2014 release cycle. Even if they just slapped a quick and dirty update to APF 2k8 and shoved it out the door... it would sell respecably just because OMG 2K IS BACK IN TEH GAME!! MUST BUY!! I WILL BREING DOWN TEH EVUL EA EMPIRE!!

Are the members of the 2K5 or APF development team still employed by 2K? I think that would be a relevant question. If so, great, but they'd have a lot to do to put out a game in the next year or two, given that they'd have to put a complete product together without having the consistent development cycles necessary to iron out kinks or implement new concepts.

If they've been farmed out to work on other projects for 2K, or if they've been scattered to the four corners of the earth, then that would also be a major issue.

[Hooe]

Quote: Originally Posted by JMP

Are the members of the 2K5 or APF development team still employed by 2K? I think that would be a relevant question. If so, great, but they'd have a lot to do to put out a game in the next year or two, given that they'd have to put a complete product together without having the consistent development cycles necessary to iron out kinks or implement new concepts. If they've been farmed out to work on other projects for 2K, or if they've been scattered to the four corners of the earth, then that would also be a major issue.

My impression from previous articles is that a good portion of the football team got moved to NBA 2K. I don't know this for a fact, however.

Regardless, I do agree that 2K doing anything football-related isn't going to just spring up overnight, however.

[RogueHominid]

Quote: Originally Posted by CM Hooe

My impression from previous articles is that a good portion of the football team got moved to NBA 2K. I don't know this for a fact, however. Regardless, I do agree that 2K doing anything football-related isn't going to just spring up overnight, however.

Yeah, I thought I heard something to that effect as well. They seem to be trimming their underperforming titles and pooling more resources to fund their successful titles, like NBA2K. Given that trend, it doesn't seem likely that they'd pull talent from that title, which is their calling card now, to try to re-enter the football market--at least not in the immediate future.

I also think it's important to remember that 2K5 needed Finn's editor to become the legend it is now. 2K8 was a step forward, but there's a TON of stuff that would need to be done to make the basic system work as an NFL game, complete with a deeper attributes system, full customization of attributes for current players, a well-oiled, realistic attribute system for rookie draft classes, the design elements that go into rendering players and stadiums, and the various elements of franchise mode.

I wonder if a hypothetical NFL release by a competing company, be it 2K or someone else, would eclipse EA's sales or even make a noticeable splash in the market at this point. How well did APF perform sales-wise? That'd have to be a baseline for projecting future sales.

I'd like to see a couple of different options or takes on how to make an NFL game, but I don't think it's going to happen if the market opens up.

[Big FN Deal]

Quote: Originally Posted by JMP

Yeah, I thought I heard something to that effect as well. They seem to be trimming their underperforming titles and pooling more resources to fund their successful titles, like NBA2K. Given that trend, it doesn't seem likely that they'd pull talent from that title, which is their calling card now, to try to re-enter the football market--at least not in the immediate future. I also think it's important to remember that 2K5 needed Finn's editor to become the legend it is now. 2K8 was a step forward, but there's a TON of stuff that would need to be done to make the basic system work as an NFL game, complete with a deeper attributes system, full customization of attributes for current players, a well-oiled, realistic attribute system for rookie draft classes, the design elements that go into rendering players and stadiums, and the various elements of franchise mode. I wonder if a hypothetical NFL release by a competing company, be it 2K or someone else, would eclipse EA's sales or even make a noticeable splash in the market at this point. How well did APF perform sales-wise? That'd have to be a baseline for projecting future sales. I'd like to see a couple of different options or takes on how to make an NFL game, but I don't think it's going to happen if the market opens up.

I don't want to focus too much on the off topic of 2k or another company making a football game if the exclusive does expire, so I will just state this.

Considering that two companies tested the market of making a non-licensed football game, APF2k8/BB, it stands to reason that those two companies and/or more would be even more willing to do so if they could acquire a NFL license. No matter what the sales were for those non-licensed football games I think it's a safe projection that even those same games with a NFL brand would sell more. However, that has nothing to do with those games getting enough market share to be a threat to EA football anytime soon, which is why I don't think that prospect is any motivation for EA to renew the exclusive.

[GiantBlue76]

Quote: Originally Posted by Big FN Deal

I don't want to focus too much on the off topic of 2k or another company making a football game if the exclusive does expire, so I will just state this. Considering that two companies tested the market of making a non-licensed football game, APF2k8/BB, it stands to reason that those two companies and/or more would be even more willing to do so if they could acquire a NFL license. No matter what the sales were for those non-licensed football games I think it's a safe projection that even those same games with a NFL brand would sell more. However, that has nothing to do with those games getting enough market share to be a threat to EA football anytime soon, which is why I don't think that prospect is any motivation for EA to renew the exclusive.

The key ingredient here is the NFL wanting to grant another license. We already know 2k wants to make an NFL game as they went to the NFL a year ago to inquire about a license. No one knows what went on in those talks, but it seems to me that the NFL won't see any reason to open it up. If I was a betting man my money would be on EA and the NFL making another announcement in the coming months stating they just signed on for another 5 years as the exclusive provider of sub par NFL football games. You'll see something like this from the EA PR department - "We couldn't be happier with our partnership with the NFL. This deal will ensure that we continue to provide the highest quality, most authentic representation of the NFL in history." Then we all proceed to barf. It is what it is...