Is it a bad thing to get a 1st round bye?

[Steelerfan2k1]

I was just reading up on the stats on the Divisional Playoffs from a betting website:

* The Divisional Playoff round of the NFL postseason has produced the most lopsided scores as the teams that have earned the right to rest through the Wildcard round have owned their visiting foes. In fact, the average margin of victory in this round has been 13.9 PPG.

* The home team has been most dominant in winning games in the Divisional Playoff round overall since 1993, with a SU record of 42-14. Its ATS mark of 29-24-3 (54.7%) trails the Wildcard Round. However, in the last eight Divisional Playoff games, home teams are just 4-4 SU & 2-6 ATS, including 0-4 against the spread last year.

* Since ’93, only four NFC road teams have won straight up in the divisional round against 24 losses.

* 5th and 6th seeds in the NFC are just 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in this round. In the AFC, these same teams have enjoyed much better success, 3-4 SU & 5-2 ATS.

* Favorites of more than a touchdown are 23-4 SU & 16-10-1 ATS (61.5 percent) in the Divisional Round since ’93.




Most of these stats show that it is better to play at home - which isn't surprising.

As you point out though, the following trend has been developing over the past few years: "However, in the last eight Divisional Playoff games, home teams are just 4-4 & 2-6 ATS, including 0-4 against the spread last year." This year, the home team was again 2-2, and unless New England covered, the home team was 1-3 ATS.

Still though, three years of the home team going 2-2 does not cancel out the huge advantage of having the bye. I agree that the recent success of the away teams shows that the playing field is more level, but, playing at home in the divisionals is a huge advantage that has shown over time.

Think about it, we were much closer to seeing all four home teams winning this weekend (A Colts TD on one of their last two drives and a Dallas TD on one of its last two drives) than all four home teams losing this weekend (New England and Green Bay won by 10+).

[timid]

Quote: Originally Posted by SPTO

If i'm a player or coach of a team I WANT A BYE! The reason some teams lose after a bye is because of how they prepare heading into the playoffs. The Cowboys shut down their offense and defensive edge in the last couple or so weeks of the year but you really can't blame that on them. They played a great game. NYG was just too much on that day. Indy has a propensity to rest their starters and play lackadaisical heading into the playoffs which ultimately takes the edge away from them. I think that if Harrison didn't fumble that ball they might've come away winning that game.

If Harrison doesn't fumble, the Colts probably would've blown out SD the way the game was going.....Add in those 2 tipped int's and the Colts probably had one of the unluckiest halves I've ever seen....I was thinking the Chargers are playing ok but the Colts are playing great and its only 10-7.....In the 2nd half the Chargers played very well but luck was definitely on their side in the first half.......

I think the Colts suck after having a bye.......its good for some teams bad for others....But I was listening to the Dan Patrick show today and they said that every team that did not play their starts the entire game in the final week lost their first game......Tampa, Colts, Steelers, Seahawks, all lost. The teams that are remaining all played their starters the entire game in week 17 if I'm not mistaken......The Colts are 0-3 with a bye in the playoffs...Players need to play......

[dkgojackets]

I don't think the bye itself is as damaging as packing it in the last couple games of the season, which some teams with first round byes tend to do.

[ZB9]

NFC #1 seeds were 17-0 before the Cowboys lost

Dallas made all kinds of history this year.

[poster]

I'll take the bye each and every time. That being said, I agree with others about giving players the last week or two off if they have nothing to play for. I absolutely hate it. The only way to stay sharp is full speed game action.

I know coaches and fans are worried about injuries, but a team's good players can get hurt on any play. It is the nature of the sport. The last game of the year, if there is nothing to play for, give them the second half off. Other than that play as you normally would even if you have everything wrapped up.

[Dispatch]

I think the bye is very important, I don't know why you wouldn't want it. As long as the players can stay sharp I think its great. The players get some much needed time off after playing for so many weeks in a row.

[aswoioshr]

Quote: Originally Posted by timid

If Harrison doesn't fumble, the Colts probably would've blown out SD the way the game was going.....Add in those 2 tipped int's and the Colts probably had one of the unluckiest halves I've ever seen....I was thinking the Chargers are playing ok but the Colts are playing great and its only 10-7.....In the 2nd half the Chargers played very well but luck was definitely on their side in the first half....... I think the Colts suck after having a bye.......its good for some teams bad for others....But I was listening to the Dan Patrick show today and they said that every team that did not play their starts the entire game in the final week lost their first game......Tampa, Colts, Steelers, Seahawks, all lost. The teams that are remaining all played their starters the entire game in week 17 if I'm not mistaken......The Colts are 0-3 with a bye in the playoffs...Players need to play......

specially that defense. all season they played fast and with intensity. sunday they came out flat in the 2nd half. WR's were open all day and couldnt put any pressure on the QB. and when they would start to play decent, they would end up giving up a big 3rd down conversion. they appeared too relax or something. defense was a huge letdown compared to how they played last year.

[heitkamp94]

Any coach or player would rather take the bye, you are automatically one step closer to the superbowl, you get a week to rest and if you are smart about it you can prepare ahead of time like NE did this year. They'd already played Pittsburgh so they gambled and used their extra week to focus on J'ville.