2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs Thread

[Money99]

Quote: Originally Posted by DrJones

Ah, the good ol' "Defense wins championships" cliche, which is why of course the Saints had no shot at winning the Super Bowl this year. Let's take a look at the Stanley Cup finalists from the last 5 seasons (winner in bold). 2009 Pittsburgh - Offensive rank: 6th, Defensive rank: 18th Detroit - Off: 1st, Def: 19th 2008 Detroit - Off: 3rd, Def: 1st Pittsburgh - Off: 7th, Def: 8th 2007 Anaheim - Off: 6th, Def: 7th Ottawa - Off: 2nd, Def: 10th 2006 Carolina - Off: 3rd, Def: 18th Edmonton - Off: 13th, Def: 13th 2004 Tampa Bay - Off: 3rd, Def: 10th Calgary - Off: 19th, Def: 3rd I count one team that relied on defence and goaltending to reach the finals. And they lost. In the last 30 years, I'd say there are 2 teams that won Cups primarily on the strength of defence/goaltending ('86 Habs, '03 Devils) and 2 others that you can make a good case for ('95 Devils, '99 Stars). Off the top of my head, I can think of 9-10 teams who won with an all-out attack. Not that defence and goaltending aren't important, but can you win a Cup as an offence-first team? Of course.

What was their defensive stats in the playoffs?
With injuries, fatigue, etc., sometimes teams don't look close to how they should in the regular season.
The Wings are a great example of that from last year. We blew defensively in the regular season, but in the playoffs we had great defensive numbers. Same with Pittsburgh.

Playoffs Goals-Against-Average:
2009 - Det (2nd), Pit (5th)
2008 - Det (1st), Pit (2nd)
2007 - Ana (3rd), Ott (6th)
2006 - Car (3rd), Edm (6th)
2004 - TB (2nd), Cgy (4th)

Looks like defense can win a lot of games in the playoffs. Not one of the Cup winners was below top 5 in the postseason and 4 out of the last 5 have been in the top 3.

Washington and Chicago both have great defensive numbers this year, but that doesn't always translate well in the playoffs.
We'll see again this year. I highly doubt we'll ever see a Cup winner who is in the bottom half of the 16 playoff teams in terms of GAA.

[DrJones]

Quote: Originally Posted by Money99

What was their defensive stats in the playoffs? With injuries, fatigue, etc., sometimes teams don't look close to how they should in the regular season. The Wings are a great example of that from last year. We blew defensively in the regular season, but in the playoffs we had great defensive numbers. Same with Pittsburgh.

So the regular season isn't instructive with how teams perform in the playoffs? Than why would anyone say that Washington can't win because of their poor regular season defence?

Quote: Originally Posted by Money99

Playoffs Goals-Against-Average: 2009 - Det (2nd), Pit (5th) 2008 - Det (1st), Pit (2nd) 2007 - Ana (3rd), Ott (6th) 2006 - Car (3rd), Edm (6th) 2004 - TB (2nd), Cgy (4th) Looks like defense can win a lot of games in the playoffs. Not one of the Cup winners was below top 5 in the postseason and 4 out of the last 5 have been in the top 3.

Do you have the offensive ranks as well? Typically teams that win in short series are going to have good offensive and defensive numbers.

Quote: Originally Posted by Money99

Washington and Chicago both have great defensive numbers this year,

I'm sure the first part is a typo, since the Caps have rotten defensive numbers, that's why this topic came up in the first place.

Quote: Originally Posted by Money99

but that doesn't always translate well in the playoffs.

And as you've proven, BAD defensive numbers don't necessarily translate well in the playoffs either. Defence is more about working hard. Offence is more about talent. It's easier for poor defensive teams to improve their defensive play than it is for poor offensive teams to score more goals. Work ethic tends to balance out in the playoffs (it's easier to outwork teams during the slog of the 82-game regular season than it is when a lot is on the line), therefore more talented teams will generally win.

Quote: Originally Posted by Money99

We'll see again this year. I highly doubt we'll ever see a Cup winner who is in the bottom half of the 16 playoff teams in terms of GAA.

I agree. Just as I highly doubt we'll ever see a Cup winner who is in the bottom half of the 16 playoff teams in terms of goals scored per game. But if your argument is that regular season numbers don't correlate to postseason numbers, why would anyone doubt the Caps on the basis of their regular season numbers?

[DrJones]

Quote: Originally Posted by Money99

The one team in the West that scares me is Phoenix. They have nothing to lose, play super boring (but effective) defense and have a rockstar for a goalie.

I'm not terribly afraid of Phoenix. Teams that win in the regular season through superior work ethic as opposed to talent often find it difficult to win in the playoffs because their intensity meter is already cranked to 10, I'm not sure if they can reach another level.

Yes, it's necessary for all playoff teams to be able to win their share of 2-1 OT games. But you also need to be able to win your share of 6-2 games as well. I think the Coyotes' margin of error is too slim to win more than a round.

Don't get me wrong, Phoenix is a great story, and I stand to win a fair amount of cash if they win the Cup, so they'll have my support when they're not playing the Canucks. But I don't think they'll be able to score enough to do much damage, much like Tippett's Dallas teams of '04, '06, and '07.

"But what about Dallas getting to the Conference Final in '08?" you may ask. D'you know what was different about that Stars team, as opposed to the previous 3 seasons? They were a lot better OFFENSIVELY, ranking 2nd in the West in goals scored.

[Money99]

I hear what you're saying Dr.Jones, but I remember the Ducks going to the Cup finals in 03 and they were routinely outshot, outchanced and even outscored in most series but still managed to get 3 periods away from winning the Cup.

As far as Offensive number in the last few years playoffs:

2009 - Det (1st), Pit (2nd)
2008 - Det (1st), Pit (4th)
2007 - Ana (4th), Ott (2nd)
2006 - Car (5th), Edm (6th)
2004 - TB (2nd), Cgy (3rd)
2003 - NJ (3rd), Ana (11th)


Playoffs Goals-Against-Average:
2009 - Det (2nd), Pit (5th)
2008 - Det (1st), Pit (2nd)
2007 - Ana (3rd), Ott (6th)
2006 - Car (3rd), Edm (6th)
2004 - TB (2nd), Cgy (4th)
2003 - NJ (1st), Ana (3rd)

So those numbers show you still need good offense, but I'd argue that most teams strive for a better defense.

Regarding regular season points not always telling the story, you need to look at how the teams performed as well.
Detroit for instance. Last year their defense stunk because of fatigue and injury. But everyone knew they could turn it around in the postseason. Why? Because they proved it the last 2 playoffs.
With teams like Washington, we've never seen them play tight defense. Last year they finished 7th overall. That's not bad out of 16 teams. But they also got the Rangers in the first round and everyone knows they had hard time scoring. In the 2nd round, they allowed quite a few on Pittsburgh including an embarassing performance in game 7.

I guess my point is this, in this era every player and coach will take defense over offense in the playoffs. And most of the time, a great defense usually trumps a great offense.
Offense can win you a few games here or there, but if you're bad in your own end, it catches up to you in the spring.
And for that reason, I don't know if Washington's offense will be able to make up for it's lack of defense over the course of 4 rounds.

In a lot of ways the Caps remind me of the early 90's Wings. Lots of offense but suspect defense and goalies.
Bowman came in, shipped out guys like Paul Coffey and got Mike Vernon, instituted a tight, sound defense and was able to win 3 Cups.
Prior to this, we got embarrassed with 1st round exits against the Leafs and Sharks despite having incredible offensive firepower. Our offense was negated by the defense of Toronto and SJ.

Which reminds me, **** you Nik Borchevsky!

[duckfever8]

Defense wins championships, it's a cliche, but most of the time it's true.

As for the Playoffs, we have to likely face Vancouver, and that won't be easy. We haven't been to the playoffs since 2001, so it's kind of just good to be there. I'm more scared of seeing the Coyotes, Red Wings, or the Sharks if we end up beating the Nucks.

[DrJones]

Quote: Originally Posted by Money99

I hear what you're saying Dr.Jones, but I remember the Ducks going to the Cup finals in 03 and they were routinely outshot, outchanced and even outscored in most series but still managed to get 3 periods away from winning the Cup.

Sure. But you're going back 7 years. Why is the Anaheim '03 example more valid than the Carolina '06 example?

Quote: Originally Posted by Money99

As far as Offensive number in the last few years playoffs: 2009 - Det (1st), Pit (2nd) 2008 - Det (1st), Pit (4th) 2007 - Ana (4th), Ott (2nd) 2006 - Car (5th), Edm (6th) 2004 - TB (2nd), Cgy (3rd) 2003 - NJ (3rd), Ana (11th) Playoffs Goals-Against-Average: 2009 - Det (2nd), Pit (5th) 2008 - Det (1st), Pit (2nd) 2007 - Ana (3rd), Ott (6th) 2006 - Car (3rd), Edm (6th) 2004 - TB (2nd), Cgy (4th) 2003 - NJ (1st), Ana (3rd) So those numbers show you still need good offense, but I'd argue that most teams strive for a better defense.

Coaches strive for better defence, sure. That's because defence can be taught, offence can't.

Quote: Originally Posted by Money99

Regarding regular season points not always telling the story, you need to look at how the teams performed as well. Detroit for instance. Last year their defense stunk because of fatigue and injury. But everyone knew they could turn it around in the postseason. Why? Because they proved it the last 2 playoffs.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/l...000342009.html

So Detroit ranked 19th defensively in 2009 because of injuries to who, exactly? Their lineup from last year looks pretty healthy to me.

Quote: Originally Posted by Money99

With teams like Washington, we've never seen them play tight defense. Last year they finished 7th overall. That's not bad out of 16 teams. But they also got the Rangers in the first round and everyone knows they had hard time scoring. In the 2nd round, they allowed quite a few on Pittsburgh including an embarassing performance in game 7.

I know how they played last year. The year before they won the Cup, Carolina missed the playoffs.

Quote: Originally Posted by Money99

I guess my point is this, in this era every player and coach will take defense over offense in the playoffs. And most of the time, a great defense usually trumps a great offense.

I don't believe this. Otherwise, we'd be seeing New Jersey and Minnesota succeed consistently in the playoffs, and we don't.

Quote: Originally Posted by Money99

Offense can win you a few games here or there, but if you're bad in your own end, it catches up to you in the spring.

And I could say the exact opposite, that defence can win you a few games here or there, but if you can't score consistently, it catches up to you in the spring. It's borne out in the stats. Teams that fare poorly offensively during the regular season don't do well in the playoffs, either.

Quote: Originally Posted by Money99

In a lot of ways the Caps remind me of the early 90's Wings. Lots of offense but suspect defense and goalies. Bowman came in, shipped out guys like Paul Coffey and got Mike Vernon, instituted a tight, sound defense and was able to win 3 Cups. Prior to this, we got embarrassed with 1st round exits against the Leafs and Sharks despite having incredible offensive firepower. Our offense was negated by the defense of Toronto and SJ.

You're right in that Detroit played better defence in their Cup-winning years than in the early 90s. But their offence was still elite. In '97, '98, '02, and '08, Detroit ranked 6th, 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd in offence.

I'm not disputing that defence and goaltending is important. I just don't believe that they're MORE important than offence. Poor defensive teams can be fixed through coaching, poor offensive teams need an influx of talent. As you illustrated with the '09 Red Wings and Penguins, teams can successfully tighten up defensively in the postseason after poor defensive regular seasons. But teams that don't score in the regular season...they don't score in the playoffs either.

Let's take a look at the current 09/10 standings:

Most goals scored: Washington, Chicago, Vancouver, San Jose, Pittsburgh.
Fewest goals allowed: New Jersey, Boston, Phoenix, Calgary, Buffalo.

What group is most likely to include this year's Cup champ?

EDIT: Anyway, I'm tired of hijacking the thread, so I'll drop it.

[slickdtc]

I think in the East, it's PIT, then WSH, then everyone else.

[daflyboys]

Flyers in.


YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!