Werewolf XXVIII: Mad Wizard and the Wolves (Game over Pg45)

[stevew]

I'm taking off in a few minutes to go play Magic. I hope that I'll be able to check back in and see what's going on later. Good luck to us. Well, some of us :) Good luck to the pack.

-Anxiety

This statement raises my suspicion level.

[path12]

Pfft.

The only reason I have a computer right now is I'm supposed to be filling out some form for my passport.

I guess you won't mind the vote, then.

[st.cronin]

Updated votes:

Path - AlanT (560), Barkeep (602), Tyrith (730), ardent (736)
Schmidty - Saldana (561)
Ardent - Path (564)
Hoopsguy - Blade (637)
Cronin - Anxiety (676), Coffee (748)
Anxiety - Cronin (687), Lathum (689)

Not voted - Schmidty, Hoopsguy

Some possible shenanigans: Path and anxiety were tied 2-2, and then Tyrith and ardent put votes on Path. Ardent and tyrith are both mid-level suspects on a lot of lists. If Path turns out to be a wolf, I suggest this looks bad for Anxiety, tyrith, and ardent.

[path12]

So let me make sure I have this right -- the reasons for voting for me are:

1) I'm posting and trying to contribute more.
2) I didn't vote for the fellow wolf yesterday.

Got it. Much clearer.

[st.cronin]

What worries me about this vote is that only 1 person I trust is voting for path. The people I trust have their votes all spread out.

[Poli]

Leaving for most of the afternoon...going to watch, maybe play a game of softball or two.

I don't know if path's a wizard/henchman or not, but he's kept his vote on me...and for a senseless reason, in my opinion.

As I believe he stated in regards to me...I'm sure he won't mind my vote stays with him.

[Tyrith]

All the "good players" have their votes spread everywhere. All this does is discourage people from actually taking chances, as while we sit around, anyone who actually votes for a good person is going to get jumped on the next day. It just shows that wasting your vote day after day is a good strategy for the bad guys to take.

[Poli]

Well, thinking about my timing, I may have 15 more minutes.

[Tyrith]

The thing is that no one has any reasons that make sense to vote for _anyone_ today. All we have is hoops chasing after people that voted for him in the late going. The only evidence we have has exonerated blade, probably hoops, maybe lathum? The fact that we haven't had anyone step up and say they were the person that took the bolt for blade makes me extremely unhappy right now.

[stevew]

It's definately a tough situation to be in.

[stevew]

What worries me about this vote is that only 1 person I trust is voting for path. The people I trust have their votes all spread out.

At least this post boosts your overall count.

[st.cronin]

At least this post boosts your overall count.

That's the important thing.

[stevew]

That's the important thing.
No doubt.

[Blade6119]

All the "good players" have their votes spread everywhere. All this does is discourage people from actually taking chances, as while we sit around, anyone who actually votes for a good person is going to get jumped on the next day. It just shows that wasting your vote day after day is a good strategy for the bad guys to take.
My vote sitting on hoopsguy tells you what i think of the situation. And lathum vouches for him and suddenly hes clear...i mean, cause lathum couldnt be a bad guy with hoops...I think hoops needs to go, so you have my reasoning.

Everyone here knos yesterday i wanted cronin and hoops dead, hoops being my second...he kills me, people see i wanted cronin and go that route. He gets pressure off and doesnt take the heat. It all makes sense to me right now, and until he dies a wolf i will think nothing else(or a seer reveals, is confirmed, and then clears hoops)

[Tyrith]

I really, really hate my path vote now. I don't know what I'm going to do, but this isn't it. Even if he dies, it really doesn't give us much of anything, it doesn't seem ardent has had enough to plot evil schemes with him.

UNVOTE PATH

[st.cronin]

My vote sitting on hoopsguy tells you what i think of the situation. And lathum vouches for him and suddenly hes clear...i mean, cause lathum couldnt be a bad guy with hoops...I think hoops needs to go, so you have my reasoning.

Everyone here knos yesterday i wanted cronin and hoops dead, hoops being my second...he kills me, people see i wanted cronin and go that route. He gets pressure off and doesnt take the heat. It all makes sense to me right now, and until he dies a wolf i will think nothing else(or a seer reveals, is confirmed, and then clears hoops)

Well, why would a seer clear hoops when you're the only one voting for him? Your vote does no good where it is.

[Tyrith]

Right now three votes is leading. His vote can still mean a lot; it only takes swinging two people, and one of the two no-votes so far is schmidty.

[Blade6119]

Well, why would a seer clear hoops when you're the only one voting for him? Your vote does no good where it is.
I was talking down the road, not today. It does not good becuase they have swayed you. I wont vote for most of the top canidates, i trust them...my suspects are the ones driving the votes, so i find myself sitting on my top suspect, hoops.

[path12]

The thing is that no one has any reasons that make sense to vote for _anyone_ today. All we have is hoops chasing after people that voted for him in the late going. The only evidence we have has exonerated blade, probably hoops, maybe lathum? The fact that we haven't had anyone step up and say they were the person that took the bolt for blade makes me extremely unhappy right now.

That might be the most interesting thing said all day so far. Fuck it, if I'm going down I'm going with my first choice.

UNVOTE ARDENT
VOTE HOOPS

[Tyrith]

I would rather not say why I am sure on hoops right now except that I trust him for now, everything he has said adds up unless someone else steps forward there is no reason for debate at this point.

I can only see three ways this works.

1) Lathum is the seer.

2) Lathum is a witness, who watched hoops guard someone.

3) Lathum and hoops are in it together.

Option #2 is likely enough to give me pause...but if lathum were just a witness, why would he be so scared to role reveal? It isn't likely they would target him over a shot at hoops or better role (duke/seer). We just kind of let it go before he went off. If I'm alive tomorrow, I'd really like to get some hard answers.

[st.cronin]

Path - AlanT (560), Barkeep (602), ardent (736)
Schmidty - Saldana (561)
Hoopsguy - Blade (637), Path (769
Cronin - Anxiety (676), Coffee (748)
Anxiety - Cronin (687), Lathum (689)

Not voted - Schmidty, Hoopsguy, Tyrith

I have bolded the players I trust the most.

[Tyrith]

Screw it, I'd rather die on my feet than live on my knees. This route will either give us multiple bad guys or at least clear a couple of important people. Let's see what shit goes down this time.

VOTE HOOPS

[st.cronin]

That makes hoops and path tied, and I doubt either one is a wizard.
.

[Tyrith]

Then give me some sort of hard evidence. Right now I'm just voting this way because either way, we have more information afterwards, but all day no one has had any convincing arguments.

[Schmidty]

I haven't been able to be around my computer much today, and that will likely continue for awhile.

I still feel the same way that I felt yesterday about hoops. There are others who may be bad, but I feel strongly about hoops. I just don't like his pushy vibe this game.

Vote hoopsguy

[hoopsguy]

I'm not going to be around at the deadline tonight to move the vote, so if the wizards are successful in moving you then this is their night to do it.

There are multiple players who have come out and said that they trust me - wonder if that is because someone scanned me by now and knows that I'm telling the truth? Wonder why I've played nice with Blade today? And if you do take me out today I have no way to protect him in the days to come.

VOTE PATH

At the moment this is a defensive vote because I really want to stay alive and help us win the game. If I was able to vote without the pressure of saving myself it would be for Schmidty. And I would like to have the luxury of time to sort out the Barkeep/Saldana roles claim, as I think there is a good chance one of those guys is piggy-backing on Cronin with a bogus "mini-reveal".

[Barkeep49]

So what's the reprecussion if blade is wrong? The answer is likely nothing. I think we have a group of people who are better candidates. Now this is partially self interested because I feel losely in a circle of trust, but at the same time there's something about the way that Blade has played this game which strikes me as evil as opposed to just his normal in your face style.

[Tyrith]

I don't like this either, but I don't like the path vote even more. I'd follow a switch over to schmidty, which would make it 3-3-3 and create a giant ass mess.

[Tyrith]

Well....maybe I wouldn't follow. Damnit, evidence please~

[Barkeep49]

Hoops I would like to sort out the thing with saldana as well if he's around.

[Schmidty]

I'm not going to be around at the deadline tonight to move the vote, so if the wizards are successful in moving you then this is their night to do it.

There are multiple players who have come out and said that they trust me - wonder if that is because someone scanned me by now and knows that I'm telling the truth? Wonder why I've played nice with Blade today? And if you do take me out today I have no way to protect him in the days to come.

VOTE PATH

At the moment this is a defensive vote because I really want to stay alive and help us win the game. If I was able to vote without the pressure of saving myself it would be for Schmidty. And I would like to have the luxury of time to sort out the Barkeep/Saldana roles claim, as I think there is a good chance one of those guys is piggy-backing on Cronin with a bogus "mini-reveal".

You know what? I'm going to go with what you are this time. Your point about "playing nice with Blade" rings true. I don't think you'd link yourself with another baddie. Now if path ends up being good, it's your ass on the line tomorrow, in my opinion. You've been the shepherd, so if you're wrong, I think you would be the most responsible, just like I would have been yesterday if I hadn't switched my vote yesterday.

Vote path12

[Schmidty]

You know what? I'm going to go with what you are this time. Your point about "playing nice with Blade" rings true. I don't think you'd link yourself with another baddie. Now if path ends up being good, it's your ass on the line tomorrow, in my opinion. You've been the shepherd, so if you're wrong, I think you would be the most responsible, just like I would have been yesterday if I hadn't switched my vote yesterday.

Vote path12

Dude, that made no fucking sense.

[Schmidty]

Dude, that made no fucking sense.

Maybe not, but I knew what I meant, damnit. :D

[Coffee Warlord]

Schmidty's drunk.

[Alan T]

Well....maybe I wouldn't follow. Damnit, evidence please~


Thats the problem I have with all of today.. no one was giving evidence and everyone is holding everything close to their vest. While I think its important to do that to some extent with things like repeatable valuable roles (seer for instance), right now I think we have made stuff more confusing because everyone is making claims based on who knows what.

[Blade6119]

go get em drunkie!

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, I don't have evidence that specifically points to Schmidty - as the bodyguard I don't have any inside information since the two people I have watched were not attacked.

But there were 9 out of 16 people who voted between Schmidty and Tanglewood on Day 1:
Blade - Qwik (161), mckerney (176), cronin (188), Tanglewood (251)
Tanglewood - Schmidty (209), Hoopsguy (213), Tyrith (234), Saldana (238), Blade (254)

- Cronin and I have both revealed roles.
- Multiple people have stated they believe "both Blade and Hoopsguy" (don't have enough time right now to look up post numbers)
- Tyrith and Blade both state they have someone who can vouch for them
- Saldana was the first to state that he had a role that lines up with Cronin (until given a reason to believe this, I trust his reveal more than Barkeeps but I'm trying to keep an open mind)
- Schmidty is the only one without any attachments at all

Schmidty also has voted for me on back-to-back days, including a late vote change yesterday. I recognize that it was between two wolves, but given the amount of time that mckerney and I devoted to this game I would like to believe that the wolves had reason to try and take me out.

UNVOTE PATH
VOTE SCHMIDTY

I hope that the wolves make good decisions here down the stretch. If not, then I'll be following along hoping that you can pull this off without me and that my death does serve to provide some clarity.

[Blade6119]

Thats the problem I have with all of today.. no one was giving evidence and everyone is holding everything close to their vest. While I think its important to do that to some extent with things like repeatable valuable roles (seer for instance), right now I think we have made stuff more confusing because everyone is making claims based on who knows what.
I have given you evidence...it damns no one, but i have shared what i can and put myself in dangers way to do so.

[Schmidty]

The saddest part is that I'm not drunk. :(

But I will be!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Barkeep49]

I have very little information to share and I'm willing to put it out there in the limited way that it might also clear another player. But really on D3 it's not so wrong to still be playing somewhat close to the vest as we're not in a crisis situation, yet.

[Barkeep49]

I have given you evidence...it damns no one, but i have shared what i can and put myself in dangers way to do so.
I know you're not going to like this, but I feel like I could have given similar sort of evidence and I have no ability to base it in reality. I mean you're not really someone I want to vote for today but unverified evidence only is so good as evidence. It does speak well of you that no one has tried to offer an alternate explanation.

[hoopsguy]

Damn it - Schmidty goes and changes votes AGAIN after I put together what is supposed to be my last play. My wife is going to frigging kill me for dicking around on the computer here ...

I've already discussed my reasons for voting for Path, starting after the deadline last night. But at its core, voting for him is a guess between two people I'm very suspicious of in order to extend my play so I can protect a key role tonight.

UNVOTE SCHMIDTY
VOTE PATH

[Schmidty]

Tyrith, I don't have evidence that specifically points to Schmidty - as the bodyguard I don't have any inside information since the two people I have watched were not attacked.

But there were 9 out of 16 people who voted between Schmidty and Tanglewood on Day 1:
Blade - Qwik (161), mckerney (176), cronin (188), Tanglewood (251)
Tanglewood - Schmidty (209), Hoopsguy (213), Tyrith (234), Saldana (238), Blade (254)

- Cronin and I have both revealed roles.
- Multiple people have stated they believe "both Blade and Hoopsguy" (don't have enough time right now to look up post numbers)
- Tyrith and Blade both state they have someone who can vouch for them
- Saldana was the first to state that he had a role that lines up with Cronin (until given a reason to believe this, I trust his reveal more than Barkeeps but I'm trying to keep an open mind)
- Schmidty is the only one without any attachments at all

Schmidty also has voted for me on back-to-back days, including a late vote change yesterday. I recognize that it was between two wolves, but given the amount of time that mckerney and I devoted to this game I would like to believe that the wolves had reason to try and take me out.

UNVOTE PATH
VOTE SCHMIDTY

I hope that the wolves make good decisions here down the stretch. If not, then I'll be following along hoping that you can pull this off without me and that my death does serve to provide some clarity.

Well, I guess that's that. I was going to go with you, but I'm convinced that you are either a human, or very confused (like everyone else).

I'm not a baddie, but I have no idea how to prove it. If I die, I die. At least then people will have to look at you closely tomorrow.

Self-preservation:

Unvote path12

Vote hoopsguy

Now I really do need to go. I'm leaving FOFC up and logged in, so hopefully I'll be able to check in before the deadline.

[Schmidty]

Damn it - Schmidty goes and changes votes AGAIN after I put together what is supposed to be my last play. My wife is going to frigging kill me for dicking around on the computer here ...

I've already discussed my reasons for voting for Path, starting after the deadline last night. But at its core, voting for him is a guess between two people I'm very suspicious of in order to extend my play so I can protect a key role tonight.

UNVOTE SCHMIDTY
VOTE PATH

DAMN YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D

Unvote hoopsguy

Vote path12

[Barkeep49]

Hoops: I'm not such a fan of you saying first that it's a defensive vote and now that it's a vote you're happy to do. Frankly I think a vote for path is a good vote, which is why I've been on him for a while, but would like it on the record that you think this as well so in future days it's not seen as merely defending yourself, which is also understandable.

[Alan T]

Ok, I think an updated vote count is:

Path - Alan T (560), Barkeep (602), Ardent (736), hoops (792), schmidty (794)
Schmidty - Saldana (561)
hoops - Blade (637), path (769), Tyrith (772)
Cronin - Anxiety (676)
Anxiety - Cronin (687), Lathum (689)

[Coffee Warlord]

Ok, I think an updated vote count is:

Path - Alan T (560), Barkeep (602), Ardent (736), hoops (792), schmidty (794)
Schmidty - Saldana (561)
hoops - Blade (637), path (769), Tyrith (772)
Cronin - Anxiety (676) CW
Anxiety - Cronin (687), Lathum (689)

Fixed to add my vote.

[Barkeep49]

So I would love to see some consildation from 5 to say 3 candidates. Is far more useful in future days.

[path12]

Well, I'm out -- 50/50 that I'll be back before lynch. I've already stated my case, and frankly you can do worse than lynching me since I have no role to offer, and maybe you'll be able to catch some clues from it.

Then again, we're also hammering the fact home to bad guys that staying quiet is good unless you're hoops/blade/barkeep and never, ever vote hoops.....especially late.

Good luck, wolves.

[Barkeep49]

Then again, we're also hammering the fact home to bad guys that staying quiet is goodThen you should be voting the way you're talking and going for someone quiet and not hoops who is as loud as loud can be.

[Tyrith]

Yeah, I definately don't like the way we're reinforcing certain things, like hoops immortality. I fear this game is getting too much about the really good players, as it seems it's the average guy that keeps getting killed.

[Barkeep49]

DOLA -- After you drop down from cronin, hoops, and blade you essentially have all active players in the 26-50 range. Not a huge range there and not something suggesting anyone is really being quiet at this stage. Quiet players should recieve scrutiny, but I'm failing to see anyone really trying to UTR here. There's quite a record for each player to be examined.

[Barkeep49]

Yeah, I definately don't like the way we're reinforcing certain things, like hoops immortality. I fear this game is getting too much about the really good players, as it seems it's the average guy that keeps getting killed.
One could suggest that good players are less likely to get killed since they're good players. I also think you'd recieve some widespread debate about who is a good player. I think everyone agress hoops is, but after that I'm not sure there'd be much consensus.

[Tyrith]

Today, if path turns up good, I think we narrow down to two huge suspects, schmidty and hoops. Hopefully someone will have some good information tomorrow morning.

[st.cronin]

Path is a better vote than hoops, that I'm sure of.

[Blade6119]

Well, I'm out -- 50/50 that I'll be back before lynch. I've already stated my case, and frankly you can do worse than lynching me since I have no role to offer, and maybe you'll be able to catch some clues from it.

Then again, we're also hammering the fact home to bad guys that staying quiet is good unless you're hoops/blade/barkeep and never, ever vote hoops.....especially late.

Good luck, wolves.
Two things...i had people trying to ring my neck for being quiet and im voting for hoops...so outside of that, sure...:)

[Blade6119]

Path is a better vote than hoops, that I'm sure of.
Cronin, i can quote THIS game when you claimed you were sure hoops was bad, i was bad, one of barkeep, path, and someone else was bad...are we sure sure or cronin/blade sure?

Becuase i see no reason to trust hoopsguy other then lathum, who no one can vouch for, says to...its stunning to me at least why people trust him right now

[Barkeep49]

Yeah Blade I'm glad to see you didn't stick with the quiet game strategy. Will give you a piece of advice: If you want to do it, don't announce it, just do it. If someone asks you a question answer it. When you vote give a short explanation. With the exception of you, no one really commented much on my style last game, though part of that was I had to post more then I wanted since I was pretty heavily under the gun.

[Barkeep49]

Cronin, i can quote THIS game when you claimed you were sure hoops was bad, i was bad, one of barkeep, path, and someone else was bad...are we sure sure or cronin/blade sure?

Becuase i see no reason to trust hoopsguy other then lathum, who no one can vouch for, says to...its stunning to me at least why people trust him right now
No one can vouch for you either and you're not getting any votes. Why be surprised that the credit you're getting is also extending to others?

[Alan T]

I just dont see how a quiet game would be much fun. Maybe its because I dont get to play often, but when I do play, I want to be involved. Its alot more fun to me to try to play CSI: Werewolf. :)

[st.cronin]

I think if you look over Anxiety's posts, they look pretty suspicious. Tyrith should know this; he's avoided commenting on Anxiety. Both of them have shot up my list today.

[Blade6119]

No one can vouch for you either and you're not getting any votes. Why be surprised that the credit you're getting is also extending to others?
Wrong, two players can. Whoever protected me last night, and someone i chatted with on night 0 due to his role.

[Barkeep49]

Wrong, two players can. Whoever protected me last night, and someone i chatted with on night 0 due to his role.
How can the N0 vouch for what happened last night? And perhaps I shouldn't have said "no one can vouch for you either" and instead said "no one has vouched for you either"

[Alan T]

Wrong, two players can. Whoever protected me last night, and someone i chatted with on night 0 due to his role.


Is the last part of that new info? or have I completely missed that up till now? Is there someone with the ability to talk to people each night?

[Blade6119]

dola, BK...my story is plausible with what happened last night. Hoops says his role had nothing to do with it. So either you believe my story or someone was converted, where as with hoops its just whatever

[Blade6119]

Is the last part of that new info? or have I completely missed that up till now? Is there someone with the ability to talk to people each night?
Its new info...i said i had a friend, didnt say how we were friends. Now you know

[Blade6119]

How can the N0 vouch for what happened last night? And perhaps I shouldn't have said "no one can vouch for you either" and instead said "no one has vouched for you either"
He cant account for what happened last night, but can vouch that i was legit at the start of the game. And yes, the second would have been better.

[st.cronin]

Cronin, i can quote THIS game when you claimed you were sure hoops was bad, i was bad, one of barkeep, path, and someone else was bad...are we sure sure or cronin/blade sure?

Becuase i see no reason to trust hoopsguy other then lathum, who no one can vouch for, says to...its stunning to me at least why people trust him right now

Well, it's a little bit like a game of chicken, isn't it? But it's too early to swerve.

At any rate, I'm not sure of hoops in the same way I'm sure of saldana and you. I think he's being a little shifty with his role, which is possibly in order to protect somebody else. But I think he's on our side.

[Barkeep49]

dola, BK...my story is plausible with what happened last night. Hoops says his role had nothing to do with it. So either you believe my story or someone was converted, where as with hoops its just whatever
I have another option. What if you're blessed. So the spell they tried to kill you with backfired and somehow effected another player? This fits what we know publicly, your story, and even Fozzies comments about how great the night actions would be.

[Barkeep49]

He cant account for what happened last night, but can vouch that i was legit at the start of the game. And yes, the second would have been better.
How does someone else having the ablity to n0 message prove you were good? Seems like it just proves they were good. And fine let me officially say "no one has vouched for you either" :D

[Barkeep49]

Ok so I want to play make believe. In my make believe Blade is right and hoops is not the bodyguard. What's his play coming out like this then?

[Blade6119]

I have another option. What if you're blessed. So the spell they tried to kill you with backfired and somehow effected another player? This fits what we know publicly, your story, and even Fozzies comments about how great the night actions would be.
Two problems with that, firstly being if i was blessed and it hit some random players, why wouldnt that player have come forward(getting hit by a bolt of lightning is something foz would tell you).

Secondly, and by the key, were the other wolfs comments. He was hunting the wizard, he was out with a purpose, and he saved me. It was quite clear in my PM(whether or not i conveyed that when i paraphrased well enough, i dont know)

[Blade6119]

How does someone else having the ablity to n0 message prove you were good? Seems like it just proves they were good. And fine let me officially say "no one has vouched for you either" :D
Its part of his role, as he did not select me to speak with. I was chosen by fozzie, random or by choice i do not know

[Barkeep49]

Two problems with that, firstly being if i was blessed and it hit some random players, why wouldnt that player have come forward(getting hit by a bolt of lightning is something foz would tell you).

Secondly, and by the key, were the other wolfs comments. He was hunting the wizard, he was out with a purpose, and he saved me. It was quite clear in my PM(whether or not i conveyed that when i paraphrased well enough, i dont know)
That's good to know as I defeinitely did not get that from your original paraphrasing.

[st.cronin]

Two problems with that, firstly being if i was blessed and it hit some random players, why wouldnt that player have come forward(getting hit by a bolt of lightning is something foz would tell you).

Secondly, and by the key, were the other wolfs comments. He was hunting the wizard, he was out with a purpose, and he saved me. It was quite clear in my PM(whether or not i conveyed that when i paraphrased well enough, i dont know)

This might explain why that wolf hasn't come forward. If there is a hunter wolf, he may be vulnerable to night actions of the enemy - so, depending on how powerful he is, and how much the enemy knows about him, it may be wise not to come forward.

[Blade6119]

Ok so I want to play make believe. In my make believe Blade is right and hoops is not the bodyguard. What's his play coming out like this then?
Im not quite sure what your asking, but i assume why is he making this move?

In my mind, its a fozzie game, and like cronin said about hoops protecting me and assuming i knew, if hes a bad guy he assumes either i or the bodyguard saw the wizard attack. Notice his timing, he revealed his role when he had 0 votes on himself and had no information about a bad guy to give.. In some games, people have no idea they were saved, so its possible they are hoping for a 1-1, give up henchman(or wizard, as we dont know if he can be killed right now by lynch) and get the bodyguard. That leaves us SOL late in the game for our seer, and they can basically attack with impunity whoever they want.

It makes sense to me

[Blade6119]

This might explain why that wolf hasn't come forward. If there is a hunter wolf, he may be vulnerable to night actions of the enemy - so, depending on how powerful he is, and how much the enemy knows about him, it may be wise not to come forward.
If he is the wolf boss, actaul bodyguard, or some other multi-use role, a 1-1 trade off is not good enough and he should shut up. Its what im working under, as someone helped me last night and hasnt said a word. That means their role is still powerful, and still useful...which one is the key, as bodyguard dooms hoops, but another could mean we have multi safe roles

[Blade6119]

I will find you wizard, and when i do, you shall die...thats the best paraphrase i can give to prove he was out with a purpose

[Barkeep49]

Im not quite sure what your asking, but i assume why is he making this move?

In my mind, its a fozzie game, and like cronin said about hoops protecting me and assuming i knew, if hes a bad guy he assumes either i or the bodyguard saw the wizard attack. Notice his timing, he revealed his role when he had 0 votes on himself and had no information about a bad guy to give.. In some games, people have no idea they were saved, so its possible they are hoping for a 1-1, give up henchman(or wizard, as we dont know if he can be killed right now by lynch) and get the bodyguard. That leaves us SOL late in the game for our seer, and they can basically attack with impunity whoever they want.

It makes sense to me
I think it's too early for a 1-1. But let me think about the idea that he came out when there was no information to give and his head was not on the block.

[st.cronin]

That sounds like a hunter role. Maybe it's a combo hunter/seer role? Maybe he's the only one who can kill the wizard, if he finds him at night? (remember, Foz said a couple of times that the wiz would be hard to kill) And last night he was sniffing you out, and just happened to intervene in the attack?

Just brainstorming here...

[Blade6119]

That sounds like a hunter role. Maybe it's a combo hunter/seer role? Maybe he's the only one who can kill the wizard, if he finds him at night? (remember, Foz said a couple of times that the wiz would be hard to kill) And last night he was sniffing you out, and just happened to intervene in the attack?

Just brainstorming here...

The first comments the wolf made seem to contradict that fact.

along the lines of: No, not this time wizard, i will not allow you to destory my pack!

[st.cronin]

The first comments the wolf made seem to contradict that fact.

along the lines of: No, not this time wizard, i will not allow you to destory my pack!

I'm not sure how that contradicts it. Supposing the way Foz has it set up, if this character finds the wizard, he can kill him - but if he finds the target of the wizards, he just breaks up the attack. Isn't that about what that wolf might say?

[Barkeep49]

I will find you wizard, and when i do, you shall die...thats the best paraphrase i can give to prove he was out with a purpose
So another wolf suddenly has new powers because of your being blessed and his having recieved some terrible effect of the spell and is now a hunter role. An alternative explanation.

[Tyrith]

cronin, the reason I haven't been commenting about anxiety is because he hasn't been _doing_ anything. even if he is bad, which seems quite possible, there have to be at least two other baddies, and the only other person being as quiet as he is is ardent.

I think things will become clearer tonight. Our role players had better be out in full force.

[Barkeep49]

The first comments the wolf made seem to contradict that fact.

along the lines of: No, not this time wizard, i will not allow you to destory my pack!
Sounds like this might even be the faction leader rather then the bodyguard frankly.

[Tyrith]

cronin, the reason I haven't been commenting about anxiety is because he hasn't been _doing_ anything. even if he is bad, which seems quite possible, there have to be at least two other baddies, and the only other person being as quiet as he is is ardent.

I think things will become clearer tonight. Our role players had better be out in full force.

[Barkeep49]

cronin, the reason I haven't been commenting about anxiety is because he hasn't been _doing_ anything. even if he is bad, which seems quite possible, there have to be at least two other baddies, and the only other person being as quiet as he is is ardent.

I think things will become clearer tonight. Our role players had better be out in full force.
That's exactly the reason to go after someone. Quiet players have no track record and can be very hard to pin something on. You can see that even with people doing seemingly conflicting reveals that neither of them may be lynched. In other words even with info we might be completely missing an obvious kill. If we have no info how the heck are we supposed to get somebody?

[Tyrith]

The problem is that while it might be an obvious kill, it will still be an obvious kill later, and he isn't screwing up our votes at the moment. We probably have a bad guy in the active player group and they are certainly fucking up our vote somehow, and that's the biggest threat we have.

[st.cronin]

The problem is that while it might be an obvious kill, it will still be an obvious kill later, and he isn't screwing up our votes at the moment. We probably have a bad guy in the active player group and they are certainly fucking up our vote somehow, and that's the biggest threat we have.

That's very weak. I know you're smarter than that. You and Anxiety are suspects 1a and 1b in my mind right now.

[Coffee Warlord]

Face it. The possibilities of what Blade's night happenings could be are basically limitless. We could make a case that Blade is lying, we could make a case that hoops is lying, we could make a case that they are both lying.

Frankly, I'm figuring hoops is on the up and up, for the single reason of...if he's not the bodyguard, where is the scream of the Real One? Yes, he might already be dead, but that's low odds.

Blade I already think is kosher. Though he could very well have been converted last night, and this could be his attempt at both a cover story and an attempt to get rid of hoops.

Hellif I know.

[Barkeep49]

The problem is that while it might be an obvious kill, it will still be an obvious kill later, and he isn't screwing up our votes at the moment. We probably have a bad guy in the active player group and they are certainly fucking up our vote somehow, and that's the biggest threat we have.
We went down this path in the Star Wars game where everyone said "Either hoops or barkeep or dubb is evil" and sure enough hoops was evil. I'm actually surprised that this theory hasn't reared its head again.

[Barkeep49]

Face it. The possibilities of what Blade's night happenings could be are basically limitless. We could make a case that Blade is lying, we could make a case that hoops is lying, we could make a case that they are both lying.

Frankly, I'm figuring hoops is on the up and up, for the single reason of...if he's not the bodyguard, where is the scream of the Real One? Yes, he might already be dead, but that's low odds.

Blade I already think is kosher. Though he could very well have been converted last night, and this could be his attempt at both a cover story and an attempt to get rid of hoops.

Hellif I know.
Well we need to come up with some possiblity on how they're both telling the truth for those of us who think they're both telling the truth. I mean there has to be some explanation because if you believe Blade to be good, and I do, then hoops shouldn't be good, despite the fact that I also believe this. Hence the reason I'm trying to fit the facts into a plausible scenerio. But I admit the more I do this the harder it becomes.

[st.cronin]

I think I said this before, but I think hoops is being fishy with his role, for the purpose of protecting some other player's role that he has sniffed out. I don't actually know what hoop's role is; but I think he's been less than honest with us. Despite this, I think he is on our side.

[Barkeep49]

I think I said this before, but I think hoops is being fishy with his role, for the purpose of protecting some other player's role that he has sniffed out. I don't actually know what hoop's role is; but I think he's been less than honest with us. Despite this, I think he is on our side.
I would agree that KISS, which tends to work pretty well in these games, would suggest that hoops is in fact NOT the bodyguard. The question then becomes what role is he?

[Coffee Warlord]

Well we need to come up with some possiblity on how they're both telling the truth for those of us who think they're both telling the truth. I mean there has to be some explanation because if you believe Blade to be good, and I do, then hoops shouldn't be good, despite the fact that I also believe this. Hence the reason I'm trying to fit the facts into a plausible scenerio. But I admit the more I do this the harder it becomes.

It's a Fozzie game. It's entirely possible. :)

Lessee here....

Blade was NOT attacked last night. Hoops is the bodyguard, but was protecting someone else, and not on the scene. Fozzie likes to give some players night hints/events during his games. With that in mind, Blade got the tap for catching whatever the hell happened last night, possibly a successful conversion, and some action by a 3rd party, likely a leaderesque type.

It's thin. But it could be argued.

[Tyrith]

If everyone is so convinced that anxiety is the man, we have enough votes around to switch it over to him. I'm game, because the path lynch has seemed somewhat weak all day, but we've been stuck in it.

[Alan T]

We went down this path in the Star Wars game where everyone said "Either hoops or barkeep or dubb is evil" and sure enough hoops was evil. I'm actually surprised that this theory hasn't reared its head again.


I want to say another game Blade and hoops faced off like this and it ended up both of them were bad. Maybe I am remembering wrong. I still feel there are several people higher on my list than either of these to vote off.

Right now current votes still are:

Path - Alan T (560), Barkeep (602), Ardent (736), hoops (792), schmidty (794)
Schmidty - Saldana (561)
hoops - Blade (637), path (769), Tyrith (772)
Cronin - Anxiety (676), Coffee Warlord (748)
Anxiety - Cronin (687), Lathum (689)


Thats 5 - 3 - 2 - 2 - 1

Right now two things I am worried about are:

1) Last minute movement that is not in our best interest. (with such a wide vote spread things could change quickly)

2) We arent really learning much about any of the leading candidates.

[Barkeep49]

I agree we'd be better off with 2 or 3 candidates. However I am not in much of a position to help here.

Cronin you've been around: Are you planning on switching if someone doesn't vote for Anxiety? If so what will determine how you switch?

[st.cronin]

I agree we'd be better off with 2 or 3 candidates. However I am not in much of a position to help here.

Cronin you've been around: Are you planning on switching if someone doesn't vote for Anxiety? If so what will determine how you switch?

I will likely be around til the deadline; I don't want a tie, so I will switch to prevent a tie. My trusted players are published, and I will save them with a vote if need be. My suspicious players right now are Anxiety, Tyrith, Schmidty, and maybe Ardent. Anxiety and Tyrith I am more suspicious of than the other two.

[Tyrith]

Let's keep this discussion going. Hoops isn't happening tonight.

UNVOTE HOOPS
VOTE ANXIETY

[st.cronin]

Barkeep, if you move onto Anxiety now, it's a tie ... and will be a powerful test of Anxiety's and Tyrith's testicular fortitude (assuming one or both is a henchman).

[Tyrith]

I'm not making any more vote switches unless something radical happens.

[Barkeep49]

Barkeep, if you move onto Anxiety now, it's a tie ... and will be a powerful test of Anxiety's and Tyrith's testicular fortitude (assuming one or both is a henchman).
But I'm not convinced of anxiety being a bad guy. Sure he's on toward the top of my suspicion list but path happens to be at the top.

[st.cronin]

But I'm not convinced of anxiety being a bad guy. Sure he's on toward the top of my suspicion list but path happens to be at the top.

That's fair. I have no reason to think path is or is not a wolf. We'll see what happens, then.

[st.cronin]

I will say, though, that I think the odds that path is a henchman to be less than 1/3.

[Alan T]

This last hour has been a let down compared to yesterday.

[stevew]

I agree.

[Barkeep49]

I think the day though has been better day then most days in recent history.

[st.cronin]

Where is hoopsguy? I don't think he's voted yet.

[stevew]

He's being sneaky.

[Barkeep49]

Hoops voted for path before leaving for the night with his wife.

[Alan T]

I think the day though has been better day then most days in recent history.


It was definitly more active than most days.. Im not sure what all we have learned from it though. Generally in confrontations you can usually get out of it knowing at least you will catch one bad guy. I'm not so sure that today wasn't a huge waste of time in that regards.

[saldana]

just got caught up, i am leaving my vote on schmitdy, even though its the only one...my leading candidates right now are him, anxiety and tyrith

[st.cronin]

deadline

[Lathum]

I just got back from work and reread everything. Crazy is all I have to say. That and I am surprised Blade isn't supporting me more.

[stevew]

This should be interesting.

[Blade6119]

This should be interesting.
I say so, if hes bad ill be quite upset

[st.cronin]

I say so, if hes bad ill be quite upset

Why?

[stevew]

Indeed

[st.cronin]

Indeed

VOTE STEVEW

[Tyrith]

Final:

Path - 5: barkeep (602), alan (560), ardent (736), schmidty (794), hoops (792)
Anxiety - 3: lathum (689), cronin (687), tyrith (850)
Hoops - 2: blade (637), path (769)
Cronin - 2: anxiety (676), coffee (748)
Schmidty - 1: saldana (561)

[Tyrith]

Final:

Path - 5: barkeep (602), alan (560), ardent (736), schmidty (794), hoops (792)
Anxiety - 3: lathum (689), cronin (687), tyrith (850)
Hoops - 2: blade (637), path (769)
Cronin - 2: anxiety (676), coffee (748)
Schmidty - 1: saldana (561)

[Tyrith]

Sorry about that.

[st.cronin]

Wow, and they call ME a post-whore.

[Lathum]

foz isn't even in the thread

[Blade6119]

Why?
Becuase i trust him to this point, and if hes bad its mean im having a bad game.

[st.cronin]

Becuase i trust him to this point, and if hes bad its mean im having a bad game.

Well, I think he will show up as good also, but either way I think you're having a bad game. :p

[stevew]

VOTE STEVEW

I'm a vampire and you can't mess with me.

[Poli]

I've got 2 pages to catch up on...

I hit a homerun!

[Poli]

That might be the most interesting thing said all day so far. Fuck it, if I'm going down I'm going with my first choice.

UNVOTE ARDENT
VOTE HOOPS

Don't know what this does to the count.

UNVOTE Path

[Schmidty]

Don't know what this does to the count.

UNVOTE Path

It's too late.

If your post was a joke, I am tired and it went over my head.

[path12]

I'm clean, fellas. Next time.

[Poli]

It's too late.

If your post was a joke, I am tired and it went over my head.

It wasn't. I thought I had about 10 minutes. My bad.

I am caught up now, though.

[saldana]

still no foz....i'm out til morning. :(

[hoopsguy]

Back and caught up. Looks like SirFozzie actually had some evening plans as well ...

If Path does end up being a good guy then I badly misread his play. Barkeep, you asked if I felt like it was a good vote. I did, and still do up until proven wrong. It was just a matter of what I felt was the optimum vote and I was pretty torn between Schmidty and him.

I never did see the conversation between Saldana and you, btw. I saw you look to initiate it but didn't see anything that was conclusive in terms of back-and-forth, let alone agreeing that you have the same role.

[Abe Sargent]

Okay I just got back and got caught up. I was hoping that we'd see the resolution of the day's vote, but I suspect path is not an antagonist.

In case I get whacked tonight, I want to go ahead and post my cirle, so you'll have that information:

Blade: I think Blade is the safest guy in the game right now.

Lathum: I wonder at Lathum's strategy to back Blade and hoops early when there weren't a lot of votes. Bad strategy, or a clever antagonist ploy?

St. Cronin: He is only one of two people I trusted yesterday, but I may have come to view him in a slightly different light. Still, I am not sure that cronin is an antagonost, and many thing he said during the day seemed pretty solid.

Saldana: I think saldana is safe, but I'd l9ke to see more from him beofre being sure.

Hoopsguy: I get a wolf vibe from hoops.

Outside of that, I still don't know. If I am alive tomorrow, we'll see what happens then.

-Anxiety

[st.cronin]

Wonder what happened to the Foz.

[stevew]

Ping Foz.

[stevew]

I have my own theories about this game, perhaps i will expound upon them at the conclusion of the game.

[st.cronin]

I have my own theories about this game, perhaps i will expound upon them at the conclusion of the game.

What would be fun is if you kept a journal, and at the end of the game published it.

[Lathum]

i wonder where foz is? this could effect peoples night actions.

[Alan T]

What would be fun is if you kept a journal, and at the end of the game published it.


Vince and I did that in PMs with each other one WW game last year I think. was kinda fun.

[stevew]

What would be fun is if you kept a journal, and at the end of the game published it.

sounds like a good idea, will possibly do that next game.

[st.cronin]

Well, assuming we've torn apart another wolf, the one bit of good news is that I believe the bad guys to potentially be more confused than the good guys.

[Alan T]

Well, assuming we've torn apart another wolf, the one bit of good news is that I believe the bad guys to potentially be more confused than the good guys.


Not so sure about that. It will take a good bit to be more confused than me after today.

[Alan T]

looks like no fozzie tonight. Bed time for me. Will be on in the morning, but then likely gone in the afternoon until early evening at some point. Sweet dreams all!

[SirFozzie]

Foz lost power last night at 7 and jsut got it back about 15 minutes ago.
I just woke up, I will finish off the day's results later this morning, and then either have an abbreviated night this morning and then go with a short lynch period, or just go into weekend mode depending on what folks want.

[SirFozzie]

The Wolves once again are forced to attack one of their own, and unfortunately for the wolves, once again, apparently have attacked.. one of their own. Path's body does not change.

Night 3, actions due ASAP if you want to have a day 4 before the weekend.

[saldana]

I never did see the conversation between Saldana and you, btw. I saw you look to initiate it but didn't see anything that was conclusive in terms of back-and-forth, let alone agreeing that you have the same role.

sorry about not answering you when you asked barkeep, i was out all day, then watched two cars T-Bone each other on my way back to the hotel, and only got caught up with the thread at 1 minute to the deadline.

i have no problem discussing what i was told a bit more. like i have said before, i am just a plain wolf, i have no special role, and no ability to break ties, but i was told my votes could be extrememly important.

i interpreted that to mean they could have some value later, but at this time they do not, which is why i found cronin's reveal to make sense. he was saying that he would be the one to tell us when the tie breakers change, an event which i fully expect to happen at some point.

[saldana]

dola, i will be out again today (one more day of the beer festival), but should be back well before the deadline this time.

in case i am dead when it becomes day again, i would really like people to take a look at schmidty....he was mr talkative on day 2, then i mentioned it, and he barely posted all day yesterday, and when he did, it didnt make much sense...it felt like he was getting it out there just to make sure we all saw he was here (3 or 4 posts in a row, arguing with himself). beyond him, i am pretty sure on anxiety and tyrith. tyriths vote yesterday was very suspicious to me and axniety did some major backpedaling away from his positions when he got called on them.

assuming i am alive during the day, i fully intend to vote schmidty again today.

[Alan T]

Your suspect list is similar to what mine has been the last 30 hours or so Saldana. I'm not sure what direction I'm leaning towards right now, I guess it depends what happens in the evening. If I'm still alive during the day time, I will be leaning to one of those three though. I am hoping we have more hard facts during the day time to go on though, right now I'm relying only on instinct and what feels like erratic game play to me.

[hoopsguy]

The "no role info on death" is complicating matters here as well. I do not believe that every wolf death up to this point has been an ordinary wolf - it just seems statistically improbable.

Role info/claims:
Cronin - Lawgiver
Hoopsguy - Bodyguard
Blade - ???, saved on Night 2, involved in chat with another person
Saldana - some future tie-breaking ability?
Barkeep - similar to Saldana?
Tyrith - claims someone can vouch for him

Am I missing any here?

Others - Anxiety, Schmidty, AlanT, Lathum, Ardent, Warlord

It is likely that one of these people will not be with us in the morning.

[SirFozzie]

to be fair, if we don't get all actions in by 12 noon, they won't be due till 9 AM Monday (if we get them all in earlier, then we canget at least the night complete) with the next lynch at 10 PM EDT Monday. Fair?

[Coffee Warlord]

Fine by me. I've got a fairly full weekend anyway.

[hoopsguy]

I'm fine with whatever Day 4 schedule works for the group.

[Alan T]

I'm ok with whatever schedule. I am going to have to leave to go to a different office in a little bit, so will miss most of the afternoon anyways. But I can be back in the early evening if there is need to be.

I'm hoping we at least can have the night actions go off by tonight, so we can have the weekend to talk about stuff.. I am alot more hesitant to talk at night phase, and a long weekend night phase might cause for very low interaction on here.

[Lathum]

anything works for me, I'll be away all weekend and I am leaving today at 1:00 so I wouldn't be very active today anyway and at this point it is very important that I am active.

[Poli]

I leave Chicago Saturday morning.

I have NO clue what to expect next week in South Carolina. I'm told I'll have net access, though.

[Barkeep49]

So it kind of sucks to be have a 3 day night cycle, but there you have it.

Saldana: It sounds like our roles are very similar as my votes have quite a bit of potential as well.

I do not take this potential to have something to do with a tie breaker though and I believe cronin does not either. So saldana is now very high in my circle of trust based on what he has said.

[Lathum]

Is there any reason why last nights actions can't be posted at some point today and then go right into the day phase for monday? That would at least spur on some discussion.

[Barkeep49]

Is there any reason why last nights actions can't be posted at some point today and then go right into the day phase for monday? That would at least spur on some discussion.
I would agree with this. Would much rather have a day phase over the weekend then a night phase.

[SirFozzie]

As soon as I get all actions, and we can go from there :)

[SirFozzie]

And what do you know, the one night action I thought I was missing, I'm not.

The night quickly passes.. and apparently the wizard was worried about his lightning tricks becoming passe.. because come morning, BLADE6119 is found roasted by what's generally known by most non-magic users as a "Big-Ass Fireball".. the ground around him scorched and burned black.

Of course, seeing another of the rag-tag pack you have formed slain by the wizard is upsetting, but one of you seems to be more affected then the others. Will you all go the way Blade did, and soon?

[Poli]

:(

So, what's our schedule going to be today then?

[Coffee Warlord]

Well shit.

I was about to make a case AGAINST Blade once the day phase hit, too. I apparently suck.

[Barkeep49]

Ok hoops time to come out with who you guarded two nights ago. Blade's death is not a good thing vis a vie your innocence in my mind.

[Barkeep49]

Well shit.

I was about to make a case AGAINST Blade once the day phase hit, too. I apparently suck.
Yeah, that does stink. So CW any reason we should believe you're an innocent? You've been awfully quiet, all things considered.

[Lathum]

I told you guys I was positive about blade

[Coffee Warlord]

Yeah, that does stink. So CW any reason we should believe you're an innocent? You've been awfully quiet, all things considered.

Probably because I've been part of exactly one vote and had absolutely nothing to add for or against that vote's primary target (path)?

[hoopsguy]

"but one of you seems to be more affected then the others"

I'll be interested to see if there is something that comes out of this. I'm glad that there was not a double-kill with Blade, as I thought that might be forthcoming. With that idea (Blade as one of two Lovers) running through my head it put me in a tough spot last night on who to guard.

Again, I don't want to reveal the most recent guard action since it would leave the person exposed for Night 4. But here is the update on my actions, excluding Night 3:
Night 1: Cronin
Night 2: Saldana

I left Saldana out there as bait, to some extent on Night 2. I posted him in my Trust List when I wasn't sure if he belonged there or not, hoping that would factor in him being more of a target (I had not yet revealed at that point that I was the bodyguard).

I'm also not sure why they would target Blade two nights in a row. He has voted for me without any deviation in his intent. He was similarly fixated on voting for me in the Thing game and never moved his vote; he rarely considered ideas in the game that didn't involve me as a bad guy. I feel like they sacrificed a good player who was not going to be a threat to them until after I'm dead.

Of course, based on my work up to this point I'm not much of a threat either :(

[Poli]

Probably because I've been part of exactly one vote and had absolutely nothing to add for or against that vote's primary target (path)?

Details, details. :)

[st.cronin]

VOTE ANXIETY

I would also welcome a vote on Tyrith, folks. This is the first time I've put a vote on somebody two days in a row.

[Barkeep49]

I took the one more effected then the others, after a couple of readings, to mean Blade was more effected considering he was burnt to a crisp. Hoops why did you protect saldana? I just can't find the logic in that.

[Barkeep49]

VOTE ANXIETY

I would also welcome a vote on Tyrith, folks. This is the first time I've put a vote on somebody two days in a row.
Well considering we're only in D4 that doesn't say a whole lot really :)

[hoopsguy]

Information that I would like to have:

Saldana vs Barkeep - Barkeep appears ready to trust Saldana. Does the reverse hold true? Saldana gave his PM information before Barkeep. Saldana indicated his secondary role before Barkeep. Is there something that Barkeep can add in regards to their roles that will validate him for Saldana (who may not be around before 10PM tonight but should absolutely be here over a weekend).

Anxiety vs Lathum - both of those guys came out yesterday and said that they had reasons for believing both Blade and I were good. Anxiety seems to be changing his story a little bit on this, saying I now appear "wolfish". What are the opinions of these two towards each other?

Blade's "chat" claim - can anyone else come forward to verify that there is a role that allows for a wolf to be involved with PMs? Or is this something that Blade made up yesterday as a cover story to keep some other fact from emerging (not in an anti-wolf fashion, but to avoid posting info that helped the wizards)?

[st.cronin]

I think the reason they went after Blade twice in a row was they figured he was the one player they could count on NOT being protected last night. I think any other target they faced a possible bodyguard block.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, Post #923
Hoops why did you protect saldana? I just can't find the logic in that.

I answered this in Post #920
I left Saldana out there as bait, to some extent on Night 2. I posted him in my Trust List when I wasn't sure if he belonged there or not, hoping that would factor in him being more of a target (I had not yet revealed at that point that I was the bodyguard).

To expand on that, I hoped that the wolves would be more likely to target someone appearing on trust lists than someone who was at the bottom of trust lists. Saldana had hinted he had a role tied to Cronin at that point (you had not yet done so) so I hoped that the fact that I trusted him - and that others might as well - would make him an appealing target on that night.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, should I assume that you did not get any information about changes in voting/ties/whatever?

[st.cronin]

Barkeep, Post #923


I answered this in Post #920


To expand on that, I hoped that the wolves would be more likely to target someone appearing on trust lists than someone who was at the bottom of trust lists. Saldana had hinted he had a role tied to Cronin at that point (you had not yet done so) so I hoped that the fact that I trusted him - and that others might as well - would make him an appealing target on that night.

So the wizzes have targeted

Qwikshot
Blade
Blade

Hoopsguy, I waver back and forth between trusting you and worrying about you. Can you say a little bit about your "character" as described by Foz? I may potentially have some information that would help us, but I want to know for sure that you are on our side.

[st.cronin]

Cronin, should I assume that you did not get any information about changes in voting/ties/whatever?

As of now, it's situation normal.

[Coffee Warlord]

Vote hoops

For now.

There's too many oddities in the situation. Why Saldana, of all people? The argument he presented is somewhat weak, though I can't poke many holes in it. The bodyguard could have been killed early, which would explain why no one challenged Hoops. I think Blade was not bodyguarded, but was privvy to some other event that happened during a successful conversion.

To play my own devils advocate, the wizard COULD have killed Blade to make us go after hoops just like I'm doing. But it's where I'm going for right now.
Convince me otherwise.

[st.cronin]

Vote hoops

For now.

There's too many oddities in the situation. Why Saldana, of all people? The argument he presented is somewhat weak, though I can't poke many holes in it. The bodyguard could have been killed early, which would explain why no one challenged Hoops. I think Blade was not bodyguarded, but was privvy to some other event that happened during a successful conversion.

To play my own devils advocate, the wizard COULD have killed Blade to make us go after hoops just like I'm doing. But it's where I'm going for right now.
Convince me otherwise.

How does killing blade set up hoops, exactly?

[Blade6119]

Well, its been fun guys...i hope you guys do us wolves proud

[Coffee Warlord]

How does killing blade set up hoops, exactly?

Blade being the one who was pushing at hoops most of the day yesterday.

The classic "kill them and shut them up" scenario.

[hoopsguy]

Sure, here is a description that somewhat closely resembles my role:

I'm new to this pack. The last Pack Alpha that I was responsible for was headstrong, rarely listened to my words of caution, and found himself as a trophy for a knight he attacked directly (he was offed by the knight's squire ). I'm looking for a new Alpha to protect.

My role doesn't appear to let me know who an attacker is, but if the person I protect is targeted then I will drive off his foes. I will know that my person was attacked.

[st.cronin]

Blade being the one who was pushing at hoops most of the day yesterday.

The classic "kill them and shut them up" scenario.

Ok. Not sure I buy that, but I see where you're coming from at least.

[Lathum]

I think they went for blade acting under the assumption he can't be protected 2 nights in a row.

I still trust hoops, protecting Saldana on day 2 may be random but usually the first few days are unless there is a role reveal.

The question I have is if hoops didn't protect blade on night 2 then how did he survive an attack? Any info on this would be helpfull.

[hoopsguy]

Coffee, for the wolves to successfully use the "assume the role" strategy they need to know the roles of the players who are dead. I don't know if they do or not, but there is nothing in the game that I've seen that leads me to believe this is the case.

I could see a wolf making this play blindly as we get later into the game. But there were still 13 of the initial 16 people involved in the game when I came out with saying I was the bodyguard.

There isn't a whole heck of a lot more I can say to try and convince you that I really am playing the role of the bodyguard. I came out with this at the start of Day 3 instead of at the end of Night 2 in order to provide a full day for people to refute this role or to try and double-cross the wolves with a fake "No, I'm the bodyguard!" claim that would net us a 1:1 scenario.

In terms of who to guard each night, I'm willing to listen to advice posted on the board if you (or anyone else) have strong feelings on the matter that you don't mind the wizards reading about. But I won't promise to follow it.

[Blade6119]

Well shit.

I was about to make a case AGAINST Blade once the day phase hit, too. I apparently suck.
Im glad i inspired your trust CW :)

[Lathum]

Sure, here is a description that somewhat closely resembles my role:

I'm new to this pack. The last Pack Alpha that I was responsible for was headstrong, rarely listened to my words of caution, and found himself as a trophy for a knight he attacked directly (he was offed by the knight's squire ). I'm looking for a new Alpha to protect.

My role doesn't appear to let me know who an attacker is, but if the person I protect is targeted then I will drive off his foes. I will know that my person was attacked.
Hoops, have you been sucsesssful yet?

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, I have no information on Blade's Night 2 adventures. Everything I have done in my role of the bodyguard, with the exception of the Night 3 protect, has already been posted. I have not received a single PM as of yet on results from night actions.

I even sent a follow-up PM yesterday morning to SirFozzie to make sure that he hadn't forgotten to send me something related to Night 2 after seeing there was no one dead and having him laugh about submitted events earlier. Nothing. I really wish I had something to provide here.

[st.cronin]

Ok, well, time to lay my cards on the table.

There is a second component to my role - I have the ability to "sniff out" the wizard's henchmen. I have "sniffed" the following players: hoopsguy, blade, barkeep, and coffee warlord. I have not found any henchmen. I got an odd message when I sniffed out hoopsguy, which does not match his description, so it's possible that he is the Wizard. Hoopsguy is either the wizard or a wolf, NOT a henchman, so I don't think we should be voting for him - if he is the wizard, there is some other way to kill him which I am not aware of, but I assume one of you is. Barkeep and Coffee are wolves.

I don't know if I'm coming forward too soon or not. I apologize for all the smoke I have been blowing up your butts.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, hopefully Post #941 provides the long answer about my "success".
The short answer is "no" - I have yet to encounter the wizard or his henchmen.

[Lathum]

Blade = Blessed?

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, on what days did you "sniff" these players?

[st.cronin]

Night
0 - hoopsguy
1 - Blade
2 - Barkeep
3 - Coffee

[Lathum]

Ok, well, time to lay my cards on the table.

There is a second component to my role - I have the ability to "sniff out" the wizard's henchmen. I have "sniffed" the following players: hoopsguy, blade, barkeep, and coffee warlord. I have not found any henchmen. I got an odd message when I sniffed out hoopsguy, which does not match his description, so it's possible that he is the Wizard. Hoopsguy is either the wizard or a wolf, NOT a henchman, so I don't think we should be voting for him - if he is the wizard, there is some other way to kill him which I am not aware of, but I assume one of you is. Barkeep and Coffee are wolves.

I don't know if I'm coming forward too soon or not. I apologize for all the smoke I have been blowing up your butts.
Cronin, it is VERY IMPORTANT to know why and how the message you got about hoops was different.

[Lathum]

damn, I have to go now. It is such a pivotal time, I am going to try and get access to the net later but if noy I won't be back untill sunday.

[hoopsguy]

Also, you expected my role to start with "G" - can you give me an idea what you thought my role should be? Finally, how does this fit into the "Lawgiver" role? Can you give a little better accounting for the entirety of your role if the cards are now on the table?

I think that the timing on this announcement works fine for me - it helps develop a much better circle of trust for today and after an 0-3 start we are getting to the point where we need to be successful.

[st.cronin]

Cronin, it is VERY IMPORTANT to know why and how the message you got about hoops was different.

I agree.

The message I got regarding hoops said (paraphrasing) that he did not smell of luck. The message I got on the other fellows said (paraphrasing) that they smelled like ordinary wolves.

My role description talks about the wizard's henchmen being so enchanted that fate itself is altered around them - and that this is what I sense.

It was clear to me, though, that hoops is NOT a henchman.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, Lathum - I'm definitely interested in exploring this topic as well. I did not give you word-for-word on my role description (that would be against the rules), but I certainly feel like I captured the spirit of it.

[hoopsguy]

About the only area I can think of that would not smell of luck is that I was unsuccessful in guarding my last pack's Alpha.

[Barkeep49]

Well it looks like cronin clears me more directly, but hoops I put in a key statement or two in my response to saldana. I hope he picks up on it. And saldana if you didn't go back and reread what I posted.

[st.cronin]

Well, I was hoping that your role description would have something to do with luck - I was thinking perhaps "gambler." I don't really know - if I had to guess, I'd guess that you were a wolf, and that there is some hidden game mechanism going on that neither of us is privvy to. But it's possible that you are the wizard.

[Lathum]

Is it possible that hoops doesn't smell of luck because he hasn't had a sucsessful protection?

And that you sense enchantment around hoops because he has the ability to protect?

[st.cronin]

Is it possible that hoops doesn't smell of luck because he hasn't had a sucsessful protection?

And that you sense enchantment around hoops because he has the ability to protect?

I did not sense enchantment around hoops. The only thing I sensed was an absence of luck.

My role says that I will NOT be able to find the wizard. I don't know if that means the wizard will turn up as an ordinary wolf or not.

[hoopsguy]

Since Cronin "sniffed" me on Night 0, could I have had a successful protection at that point?

I did send in a Night 0 protection order, but had assumed at the time it was not processed (that it was not considered an action because there was nothing to protect from). But given that Fozzie hasn't sent me a PM with results for any of the subsequent ones perhaps I was allowed the action after all ...

For what it is worth, I sent in an order to protect Qwikshot on Night 0. He is a player that I have felt like I had pretty good reads on from game to game and I had a feeling he was a wolf by the time I sent the action in.

[Barkeep49]

Hoops your statements are making me distrust you more and more. If this were a normal day, I would put my vote on you now and be quite satisfied about it. Frankly leaving saldana out there? Doesn't really make sense. A N0 protect? Umm that doesn't make sense either. With cronin, a player high on my trust list, suggesting bad things about you, and a now dead wolf who insisted, unequivocally, that you were evil the signs are starting to point against you.

[st.cronin]

Heads up: just got some clarification from Foz. Hoopsguy smelled the same as the others, it was just the description was different. Now, it's still possible that one of them is the wizard, but none of them are apparently henchmen.

[Barkeep49]

Oh. Well that changes things slightly.

[st.cronin]

Barkeep, I would rather go in a different direction, because even if hoopsguy is bad, I don't think he can be killed in a normal lynch. I would like to look at Anxiety and Tyrith, possibly somebody else. The folks I have cleared are not good lynch candidates, because they are either wolves or the wizard.

[Coffee Warlord]

Unvote Hoops

[hoopsguy]

OK, working through trust lists at this point ...

Trust - myself
Near Trust - Cronin
More Trust than Not - Barkeep, Coffee
Neutral - AlanT, Ardent, Saldana, Lathum
Makes me Nervous - Schmidty, Anxiety, Tyrith
Distrust -

[Barkeep49]

Barkeep, I would rather go in a different direction, because even if hoopsguy is bad, I don't think he can be killed in a normal lynch. I would like to look at Anxiety and Tyrith, possibly somebody else. The folks I have cleared are not good lynch candidates, because they are either wolves or the wizard.
Fine. No hoops it is for now. Anxiety has rung a couple of alarm bells for me as well. I will compile my case against him, and perhaps even do a post summary, either today or tomorrow for him. Not sure I want to vote for him, but certainly some more scrutiny wouldn't hurt there.

[Barkeep49]

OK, working through trust lists at this point ...

Trust - myself
Near Trust - Cronin
More Trust than Not - Barkeep, Coffee
Neutral - AlanT, Ardent, Saldana, Lathum
Makes me Nervous - Schmidty, Anxiety, Tyrith
Distrust -
So if Cronin is near trust, and I am more trust then not, what makes saldana neutral? Also how does Coffee get on your more trust then not?

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, I don't follow you at all with the "NO protect" - can you explain?

As far as the bodyguard role goes, it is my first time really playing with the role (I faked it a couple of games back) and I've had some notions about the relative importance of it in the grand scheme of things, and what would be an effective way to use it, that I've wanted to try ... obviously I'm not as clever with it as I thought I might be.

[Barkeep49]

Barkeep, I don't follow you at all with the "NO protect" - can you explain?

As far as the bodyguard role goes, it is my first time really playing with the role (I faked it a couple of games back) and I've had some notions about the relative importance of it in the grand scheme of things, and what would be an effective way to use it, that I've wanted to try ... obviously I'm not as clever with it as I thought I might be.
It's a moot issue. You had suggested that you had done a Night 0 protect, as a reason why you smelled different. This would be MOST unorthodox indeed for there to be a kill before a D1 vote. With you now smelling the same the issue doesn't matter.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, you and Coffee were both cleared by Cronin (well, at least cleared of being henchmen). So that is why I have the two of you elevated in trust compared to the others.

Saldana falls down a level from that up until the point where I believe that you guys have the same role. You say that you left something in your PM that he should recognize - if/when he does I'll elevate him a level.

[hoopsguy]

I sent in the Night 0 protect, not knowing if it would be honored or not. I had assumed, based on no message from SirFoz, that it was not honored.

But since I have not gotten a message from him after any of the nights up to this point I don't know if it was or not.

I agree it is a moot point - Qwikshot is dead and there is no impact at this point on whether or not my request was allowed within the framework of the game.

[Coffee Warlord]

So, if we for the moment clear the people on Cronin's list.

Who needs to move under the microscope?

[st.cronin]

At this point, I trust hoops, coffee, and barkeep all exactly the same. Saldana and lathum I slightly trust. That leaves anxiety, tyrith, schmidty, ardent, and alan - two of whom are probably henchmen.

[st.cronin]

Any thoughts on how I've played this role? Was I too obvious? Did I look at the wrong guys?

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith - Barkeep (158), Path (160)
Blade - Qwik (161), mckerney (176), cronin (188), Tanglewood (251)
mckerney - Lathum (168)
Tanglewood - Schmidty (209), Hoopsguy (213), Tyrith (234), Saldana (238), Blade (254)
Barkeep - Anxiety (219)
Schmidty - Ardent (290)

No votes: AlanT (out for day), Dubb

Going back to the Day 1 vote - where do you think the wizard/henchmen stashed their votes?

I've marked Cronin's list in Green and the dead players in red. Assuming there was not some kind of a deceptive henchman (appears as a wolf when dead) we have seen everyone who voted for Blade show up as accounted for already. What are the odds that there was not a single wizard/henchman on either of the top two candidates that day?

That leaves Schmidty, Saldana, and Tyrith as suspects. I've put this theory out for a couple of days now, but have seen very little commentary on it. The bad guys have to stick their votes somewhere and would prefer to avoid being grouped based on standard bad-guy play ...

[st.cronin]

Saldana worries me somewhat. He said something that I believe to be inaccurate, and I'd like to hear him describe more fully.

[st.cronin]

dola -

describe his role

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, did you get spooked on Day 2 when Blade came up different than me? Because I just about got whiplash from your reversal on me between Day 1 and Day 2.

I like your choices overall, although I might not have had Warlord in that list. And there seemed to be enough voices yesterday (yours included) saying that Blade was good that I backed off of him despite being extremely suspicious going into the day.

[Abe Sargent]

I just finished catching up for today. Here's why I may jump from cronin to hoopsguy or saldana.

I believe that someone I trust is not what they appear to be. I trusted st. cronin and Blade specifically, and to a degree, saldana and hoops. Blade's dead, I thought it was cronin, now I'm not sure, especailly since his rr, and that leaves me saldana and hoops, who have both rr'd as well. I believe one of these three is lying.

One of the reasons I thought it was cronin was becase of the Day One to Day Three erratic behavior, but now, after his rr, and yesterday several of the things he said, I would be willing to reconsider my belief of his role.

That made me suspicious of hoopsguy, but cronin just cleared him. That leaves one - saldana.

Therefore:

Vote Saldana


-Anxiety

[st.cronin]

This is the question I have for saldana: How can the voting rules change? If he gives a satisfactory answer to that, I think he's cleared.

[st.cronin]

Cronin, did you get spooked on Day 2 when Blade came up different than me? Because I just about got whiplash from your reversal on me between Day 1 and Day 2.

I like your choices overall, although I might not have had Warlord in that list. And there seemed to be enough voices yesterday (yours included) saying that Blade was good that I backed off of him despite being extremely suspicious going into the day.

I didn't know what to make of your "scent," so I pretended to trust you, just to see what happened. Then Blade's "scent" was described in a way that made me much more comfortable, so, yeah, I did a 180 on you. Then I started to think you might be the wizard, because I thought it would be very clear when I found a henchman. Now, I don't really know. I trust you maybe 90%. The same as Barkeep and CW.

[hoopsguy]

Here are the voting patterns for Day 2. Not quite as compelling, since there are two less people in the mix and we only had a two-horse race. But two of the three late movers (the last two) have been revealed in death as wolves - really throwing off my theory from yesterday.

Day 2:
Hoopsguy - Cronin (350), Anxiety (368), mckerney (382), Schmidty (449), Blade (460), Path (471)

mckerney - Lathum (393), Tyrith (396), Barkeep (401), AlanT (417), saldana (430), Hoopsguy (462), Ardent (475)

Not voting: Dubb

[Coffee Warlord]

Does anyone have Saldana's role description post handy?

[st.cronin]

Does anyone have Saldana's role description post handy?

Saldana has not revealed his role, he just said that my role makes sense in light of HIS role. He made some other comments that confused me, though.

[Coffee Warlord]

Ah, okay. I didn't THINK he did, but your statement about him confusing you in turn confused me.

Oh, and stop sniffing my ass. :)

[Barkeep49]

This is the question I have for saldana: How can the voting rules change? If he gives a satisfactory answer to that, I think he's cleared.
Well the D1 chart put together by Hoops suggests further reason to examine Anxiety.

[Barkeep49]

Here's the most recent post where Saldana talks about his role. sorry about not answering you when you asked barkeep, i was out all day, then watched two cars T-Bone each other on my way back to the hotel, and only got caught up with the thread at 1 minute to the deadline.

i have no problem discussing what i was told a bit more. like i have said before, i am just a plain wolf, i have no special role, and no ability to break ties, but i was told my votes could be extrememly important.

i interpreted that to mean they could have some value later, but at this time they do not, which is why i found cronin's reveal to make sense. he was saying that he would be the one to tell us when the tie breakers change, an event which i fully expect to happen at some point.
For ease of reference my response

Saldana: It sounds like our roles are very similar as my votes have quite a bit of potential as well.

I do not take this potential to have something to do with a tie breaker though and I believe cronin does not either. So saldana is now very high in my circle of trust based on what he has said.

[Coffee Warlord]

Okay. Based on that post of Saldana's you just copied, I can say I'm pretty sure he's clean. Part of his statement meshes the info I was given on my pissant role.

[Coffee Warlord]

Dola.

Which means Anxiety and Ardent are on my list of people to examine.

[st.cronin]

Well, if CW and Barkeep are willing to believe Saldana, I have no real reason not to. I'm still curious, though. And I agree Anxiety, ardent, and Tyrith are all good candidates. My votes on Anxiety right now.

[hoopsguy]

I'm still trying to figure out if Blade was telling the truth on the "chat" function - I was worried that he was part of a "Lovers/Twins" role but I would have expected two deaths last night if that was the case. Anyone have any theories on this?

He wasn't willing to change his vote on Day 1 from Tanglewood to Tyrith. I recall him trusting Tyrith at different points in the game. Both Blade and Tyrith said that they had someone who can clear them if needed. I didn't want to explore this too much yesterday with the concern over a "lose two" scenario but I think now I would love to have Tyrith give me his thoughts on Blade's play and whether there was any kind of linkage.

Depending on those answers, I think we turn up the heat a little bit on Anxiety and Schmidty. Also, so far this game AlanT is skating along without much conversation on him ...

[Barkeep49]

Let me just recap hoops last post:

"Tyrith please tell me you are a good guy. Here are a whole bunch of things to use to "convinced" me. Your wannabe friend, Hoops"

[st.cronin]

lol

[hoopsguy]

Heh - I'm amused at the interpretation, even if I don't think it is accurate.

Now that we know Blade is good I want to explore the relationship between those two. If Tyrith doesn't want to admit to anything being there, then that is fine. If he does, then it is out there for all of us to interpret instead of me trying to connect the dots on my own.

[st.cronin]

Can you explain the "lose two" scenario?

[hoopsguy]

Sure, when you have Lovers and one of them is killed the other one dies with them. The Lovers know each others role. The Lovers are not necessarily on the same team ...

[st.cronin]

ah

I'm trying to imagine what two wolfs would be pming each other about on night 0. I mean, what would they say other than "ok, I trust you."

[Abe Sargent]

Heh - I'm amused at the interpretation, even if I don't think it is accurate.

Now that we know Blade is good I want to explore the relationship between those two. If Tyrith doesn't want to admit to anything being there, then that is fine. If he does, then it is out there for all of us to interpret instead of me trying to connect the dots on my own.


The problem is that you may have handed Tyrith a get out of jail free card.

-Anxiety

[Alan T]

Just got home and got caught up. I think this was a fine time for your reveal Cronin. Even though you didnt pick out any bad guys, you did clear roughly 1/3 of the player base. I still feel good about Saldana despite the misgivings you mentioned.. The people I feel pretty good about right now are Cronin, Saldana, Barkeep. I am still pretty neutral to hoops, Lathum, CW, ardent.

My three person distrust list hasnt changed any from your reveal though, and so far i don't see anything that changes my mind from it. I have pretty decent distrust for Tyrith, Anxiety and Schmidty right now. With the long weekend to discuss things, lets look really heavily at these three. I do find it interesting that Hoops is giving Tyrith an out , or some way to get out of the distrust circle. So I have a question for you Hoops, with the way you normally run things to try to build your circle of trust, why did you this time drop alot of hints for Tyrith to pick up on? This feels a little unlike what I am used to from you. Just curious at how you approached this.

[Alan T]

Dola,

I still don't really have much facts from anything so far this game, but Cronin is about as high up my trust list as there is. Anxiety is one of the people I have big problems with, so I'll join you on this vote.

VOTE ANXIETY

It is a long weekend, so I'm hoping we spend it discussing all three of the "suspicious" candidates, but right now any of the three are as good as the others for me. Lets try to make Anxiety talk a little bit about why he has been all over the place so far this game.

[Tyrith]

Blade dying makes me a sad panda.

Hoops hit a lot of it right on the head. I was the one blade was chatting with. More precisely, we were a pair of wolf brothers, and our special allowed us to send each other one message each night as an action. I had planned on role revealing last night after the day action and after a couple of hours, so the bad guys would have sent in their night actions already, but Foz's twitchy power supply kinda botched that. My role did not have any other components beyond this, so if blade was blessed, it was something extra he got. Otherwise, that is that.

[Tyrith]

And referring to cronin's post, blade was rather confused as to what we were supposed to do with night 0 PMs as well.