Werewolf XXVIII: Mad Wizard and the Wolves (Game over Pg45)

[SirFozzie]

1,000 replies to my WW thread.

Yay.

(what do you want, it's a WW thread. It's supposed to go 1,000 posts. Sometimes by Day 2 :D)

BTW, don't blame my computer, blame the lightning outside, knocked out power to the entire area for 9 hours

[Tyrith]

Yesterday I tried to pry the vote off of path at the end once I became convinced he wasn't a bad guy. I started with hoops because that's where blade went, and then tried to go to anxiety in order to get people off of path somehow. The way Barkeep didn't come off of path yesterday makes me think we can't _completely_ clear him yet. Now, though, I'm with cronin. Anxiety is starting to smell real bad again, and unless momentum swings to a candidate that will provide more information, I think he's the way to go.

VOTE ANXIETY

[Tyrith]

HAh, I didn't even think about the use of the term "power supply" in that way. Stupid lightning is yet again a tool of the wizard :P

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith - lovers/brothers roles usually result in the death of both when one passes. I'm a little surprised that there were not any consequences for you here.

Was there anything in the role that gave you a reason to believe Blade's death would impact you?

[Tyrith]

After re-reading it, maybe. Appearantly we are the last two wolves out of our original group, and we were really important to each other. I suspect if anything happens it's going to happen the next night. Consider how weak the role's special power is, killing me off too would be a little much.

[Abe Sargent]

Actually hoops, didn't Foz say something about Blade's death having a bigger impact on someone. Let me check real quick.


-Anxiety

[Abe Sargent]

Actually hoops, didn't Foz say something about Blade's death having a bigger impact on someone. Let me check real quick.


-Anxiety

[Abe Sargent]

Tyrith - were you affected in any way by Blade's death?

-Anxiety

[hoopsguy]

AlanT, Post #997:
I do find it interesting that Hoops is giving Tyrith an out

I've asked the question about Blade/Tyrith a couple of times over the last 24 hours and no one touched it at all. I first posted on this yesterday afternoon (noting that each had mentioned someone being able to vouch for them) and immediately regretted doing so - even more so after the night actions showed Blade as the target. I was subtle about the "one affected more than others" part of the PM earlier today. And I referenced it again in the "Questions I Would Like Answered" this morning. There was no conversation emerging on this topic. So I went a little more direct this time around to try and get answers.

[Tyrith]

I did not get a PM during Night 4 -- not even frome blade, because of the bad timing; however, considering that he was about to be dead, I understand why our night actions were kind of skipped over :P

It wouldn't surprise me if something arises from this later, though.

[hoopsguy]

SirFozzie, Post #913:
The night quickly passes.. and apparently the wizard was worried about his lightning tricks becoming passe.. because come morning, BLADE6119 is found roasted by what's generally known by most non-magic users as a "Big-Ass Fireball".. the ground around him scorched and burned black.

Of course, seeing another of the rag-tag pack you have formed slain by the wizard is upsetting, but one of you seems to be more affected then the others. Will you all go the way Blade did, and soon?

Tyrith, my advice would be to be as forthcoming with information/opinions over this day cycle as you can - I would not be surprised if there is some delayed impact from the loss of your brother.

[hoopsguy]

Can you summarize the PMs the two of you swapped?

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, did your role PM have any information about your pack, your character, or Blade's character?

[stevew]

Long weekend. I hope the wolves get a chance to plan a better strategy.

[Poli]

I didn't know what to make of your "scent," so I pretended to trust you, just to see what happened. Then Blade's "scent" was described in a way that made me much more comfortable, so, yeah, I did a 180 on you. Then I started to think you might be the wizard, because I thought it would be very clear when I found a henchman. Now, I don't really know. I trust you maybe 90%. The same as Barkeep and CW.

I know this much:

A few games back I was the seer and hoops was a wolf. I tried to get hoops on my trusted side hoping for more information...and I never got anything useful at all.

[hoopsguy]

I'm hoping that Tyrith will answer a couple of the above questions - there is a method to my madness here.

Ardent - that was a fun game and I think that is the one that had the Lovers role with you and Mr. Wednesday if I'm remembering correctly.

[Poli]

I'm hoping that Tyrith will answer a couple of the above questions - there is a method to my madness here.

Ardent - that was a fun game and I think that is the one that had the Lovers role with you and Mr. Wednesday if I'm remembering correctly.

Yep, and if I'm not mistaken SirFozzie was the one who chose the pairing...first of me and Schmidty...and then, ironically, me and Mr. Wednesday. Fozzie didn't have a choice in Wednesday.

Schmidty had to leave and Wednesday took over.

The two people I always vote for and I'm paired with them.

[Tyrith]

Okay, back now.

The flavor description of my role PM was literally two lines long. It really didn't have a lot to say except that we fought together and all our other pack members died.

Summary of what we said:

Night One - Blade tells me that we should stay seperate as much as possible. Lists cronin and possibly lathum as suspects, but really doesn't know much.

Night Two - Blade trusts me, path, schmidty, alan, and saldana. I honestly have no idea why he trusted schmidty. Talks about going after cronin again because he had attack me, blade, and hoops. He also wish me and Fozzie both a great evening, which just seemed out of character. :P

Night Three - No PMs because of the screwed up night cycle and both of us being gone all morning.

[Tyrith]

I suspect that I'm not long for this world. Knowing Fozzie, some weird shit is gonna happen Night 4 involving me. Best case scenario is me getting a go apeshit revenge kill, but that's also my own wishful thinking :P

[Blade6119]

He also wish me and Fozzie both a great evening, which just seemed out of character. :P
REVERTING TO ASSHOLE STATUS :)

[Tyrith]

And here I was thinking you had turned over a new leaf...well, there's always next game :)

[saldana]

ok, i am back in, slightly drunk (read: pretty hammered), but i see a very simple equation in front of us....i trust cronin...even if he has doubts about me...he has called out hoops as having been odd when he sniffed him, so as far as i read this, anyone that believes in cronin, which i believe there are a few of us, should vote hoops....if he comes up clean, then we take cronin tomorrow for being full of shit about hoops.

vote hoopsguy

[saldana]

dola, cronin, what else would you like to know about my role...i have pretty much given you my entire role.

[Schmidty]

I just back, and notice that people are talking about me as being not trusted. I would really like to read some concrete reasoning, instead of just lumping me in with other people.

The fact that hoops and Tyrith seem to be pushing so hard for me, I am pretty sure that one or both are humans.

By the way, I haven't read through everything closely yet, so maybe I'm not getting things straight, but these is my initial impressions.

[Poli]

ok, i am back in, slightly drunk (read: pretty hammered), but i see a very simple equation in front of us....i trust cronin...even if he has doubts about me...he has called out hoops as having been odd when he sniffed him, so as far as i read this, anyone that believes in cronin, which i believe there are a few of us, should vote hoops....if he comes up clean, then we take cronin tomorrow for being full of shit about hoops.

vote hoopsguyYou type a lot better than I do when I'm drunk.

[Coffee Warlord]

dola, cronin, what else would you like to know about my role...i have pretty much given you my entire role.

From what you said earlier, I know your role, and I know, unless you've been converted, you're on our side. Your message touched on a key phrase that was included in mine (not repeating it so bad guys can hop on, but anyone else in our little gang should easily recognize things).

In short? As I said earlier, Saldana's one of us, folks.

[Coffee Warlord]

Dola.

Unless he's a convert. Then all bets are off. :)

[Coffee Warlord]

Double dola.

As I'm going out soon, I'm touching on points now.

Alan T and Anxiety both voting Tyrith concerns me. I have no reason to trust either of them, and neither of them presented much new evidence to push on Tyrith (and really, is there much evidence on him anyway?)

[Abe Sargent]

From what you said earlier, I know your role, and I know, unless you've been converted, you're on our side. Your message touched on a key phrase that was included in mine (not repeating it so bad guys can hop on, but anyone else in our little gang should easily recognize things).

In short? As I said earlier, Saldana's one of us, folks.


Okay. Like I said earlier, saldana or hoops are the people I'm looking at, so I'll swing hoops's way,

Unvote Saldana

Vote Hoopsguy


-Anxiety

[Alan T]

Double dola.

As I'm going out soon, I'm touching on points now.

Alan T and Anxiety both voting Tyrith concerns me. I have no reason to trust either of them, and neither of them presented much new evidence to push on Tyrith (and really, is there much evidence on him anyway?)


I voted for Anxiety, however I still do question Tyrith, and alot of that is due to how he has been all over the place with his stance on people. In all honesty if he had revealed before Blade died, and Blade confirmed it, I would feel entirely different. This is suddenly very convienant is all since Tyrith was one of my main suspects before.

Pretty much all of my "evidence" on my leading suspects Anxiety, Schmidty and Tyrith are all based on feel on how they are acting. I do believe though if you trust Cronin, jump with him on this one. Its one of the people I have suspected for days, and has not been cleared at all. The fact that almost everyone I trust so far this game feel the same three people are suspects right now, makes me feel pretty good about my opinions of them.

I could be entirely wrong about Anxiety, but he is who Im voting for now. Its a long weekend though, so I think we should discuss all three heavily.

[Coffee Warlord]

My fault there. I coulda sworn I saw another vote on Tyrith.

[Alan T]

Dola, here is the current vote count with 3 days remaining

Anxiety - Cronin (922), Alan T (998), Tyrith (1002)
Hoops - Saldana (1022), Anxiety (1029)

[Schmidty]

Pretty much all of my "evidence" on my leading suspects Anxiety, Schmidty and Tyrith are all based on feel on how they are acting.

This makes absolutely zero sense. I am acting exactly how I do every game.

[hoopsguy]

Saldana, if I've been angle-shooting here, then why hasn't anyone emerged in the last 1.5 days to challenge me as the bodyguard?

Cronin is positive that I'm not a henchman. So you are betting that:
1.) I started the game as the wizard - 1 in 16 chance
2.) I knew that the bodyguard was among the three people dead - not sure what the odds of this are, but wolves have incomplete knowledge of the lynched (two of the dead) and death by lightning bolt doesn't seem to lend itself to getting role info

Since Cronin can only detect henchmen - he knows I'm not a henchman as he knows what that description looks like based on messaging with SirFozzie. He doesn't know what a wizard will smell like - but does "unlucky" sound like a wizard? I would think there is a pretty good chance that the wolf shows up as a normal wolf (kind of like how the seer couldn't pick up the Sith Master in your Star Wars game).

[hoopsguy]

OK, this could be a reach - looking to see if other people think Fozzie would go this way with it:

Blade, Post #636:
A huge light engulfed the sky last night. I thought at first that the wizard was trying to destroy the whole village, but the light seems to be focused on me. I, being the honorable wolf i am, accept my fate and resign to dying properly with my honor intact. Suddenly though, i notice the light seeks out another wolf besides myself as well. Just as the lightning is about to destroy me, it strikes the other wolf. When this happens, there is a howling wind in which the other wolf communicates a message to the wizard about saving his pack from the wizard. With this, the lightning and thunder stops. As it all returns to normal, i hear the other wolf cry out (this is all paraphrasing, so i cant say the exact quote and all) how he will find the wizard, and he shall have his heartsblood run the ground. Mentioned in this second calling also was that the wizard was a traitor to the pack.

The second bolded line here about the wizard as a traitor to the pack has been running through my mind for awhile now. I could see Fozzie getting cute with the brothers, having one as the "honorable" one (mentioned twice in Blade's posted PM) and the other being the less-than-honorable (wizard). I'm probably thinking too hard here, but I would rather post a crazy idea now and then rather than find myself kicking myself later when one actually turns out to be right.

[Alan T]

My fault there. I coulda sworn I saw another vote on Tyrith.


As far as I know, no one has voted for Tyrith so far today. I have definitly questioned his story as up till now he's been pretty shady. Up till now I have also trusted hoops story enough to not pressure him any, despite being pursued by some known wolves pretty strongly. However I am a bit concerned about his teaming up with Tyrith today. I am leaning towards it just being him trying to be analytical about whats happened more so than coaching answers from Tyrith. I have to guess if they both were bad guys, they would be PMing each other with the setup rather than putting it out in the open like this.

I stand pretty strong by my vote right now and have wanted to go after Anxiety a few days now, and encourage others to do so too. I still however in no way feel any less suspicious about Schmidty or Tyrith despite not voting for them today. I'm not quite sure what either has done to really benefit or help us out so far.

[Coffee Warlord]

Oh. Now I know what I meant. The concern was both of you voting for ANXIETY. The whole point was the fact that I have no reads on either of you, and you both voted for someone who is popping up as a prime suspect.

(This is what I get for spending the last 2 hours at the office drinking)

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty, Post #1024:
The fact that hoops and Tyrith seem to be pushing so hard for me, I am pretty sure that one or both are humans.

I can completely sympathize with this. However, I deeply suspicious of you, Path, and Blade after the late votes against me on Day 2. Two of those three have been proven, in death, to be wolves.

The point I'm trying to make here is if you are playing as a wolf, don't let your frustration over being targeted blind you to the fact that it very well could be wolf-on-wolf. At least not to the point where you aren't giving a hard look to the others in the game. I'm trying very hard to follow my own advice today after being chastened by the results of the last 24 hours.

[Alan T]

Oh. Now I know what I meant. The concern was both of you voting for ANXIETY. The whole point was the fact that I have no reads on either of you, and you both voted for someone who is popping up as a prime suspect.

(This is what I get for spending the last 2 hours at the office drinking)

Well I can't promise you that Anxiety is a bad guy here, I haven't had very good voting luck so far this game. All I can do is go by my gut though. What I do know is that the number of people I trust strongly, or have pretty decent feel about is growing large. So all I can do is pick out the people who I don't have any good feelings about and try to eliminate them either through lynching or, through third party facts that builds my trust in them.

[Abe Sargent]

Double dola.

As I'm going out soon, I'm touching on points now.

Alan T and Anxiety both voting Tyrith concerns me. I have no reason to trust either of them, and neither of them presented much new evidence to push on Tyrith (and really, is there much evidence on him anyway?)


I wasn;t voting Tyrith either, but saldana.

-Anxiety

[saldana]

hoops, the thing that really set me off as far as you were concerned is the fact that you turned on me today, after yesterday i was rather high on your trusted list yesterday. you really didnt give a reason, i was just all of the sudden in your crosshairs, and that is not like you at all...you are methodical, deliberate, and thorough, and that action is none of these....in all honesty, what i am seeing from you is a great game of misdirection, pointing everyone away from yourself, which is what you did masterfully well in the Sith game, and ended up running the table against the Jedi.

my vote stands.


(and AE, i am a professional, hence the quality of typing. ;))

[hoopsguy]

Saldana, as of yesterday I thought that Barkeep was more likely to be angle-shooting than you. But Cronin cleared him this morning (well, unless he can't distinguish wolf from wizard) so I had to reassess my assumptions. Both Barkeep and Coffee were lower on my trust list before Cronin's reveal today.

I continue to be methodical, deliberate, and I like to believe thorough. But I'm not doing very well this game at finding bad guys. I don't like that your vote stands and I don't think you will feel satisfied with the outcome if your vote wins, but so be it. In poker terms, I think you are chasing at best a two-outer here (I know it to be a zero-outer) even with this being a game of incomplete information.

[saldana]

hoops, i am too drunk to go back and check, where is your vote?

[saldana]

dola, are we up against a deadline, or are we in a huge ass day cycle until monday...i dont recall seeing a deterimination of the deadline

[saldana]

double dola, never mind, i read the thread title and see that its monday.

[Alan T]

dola, are we up against a deadline, or are we in a huge ass day cycle until monday...i dont recall seeing a deterimination of the deadline

No real rush to get votes out, we have a few days. I think its good to put some action behind people's words though. There is alot of folks listing half the group as people who are "suspicious", so seeing people stand behind their belief is good to have to look back on.

[Tyrith]

At this point, hoops reasoning about the bodyguard thing makes a lot of sense to me. While I don't really like coming out on his side because of the angle it gives people against me, I can't really justify lynching him for the sake of it.

As to yesterday, I was flipping around so much because I was genuinely unsure. We really didn't have any solid evidence to go on, and no one had anything really to go off of even from the posts, so we were just flipping around, and my mind was going with them. If I were a bad guy, it would have been very easy to keep my vote on path and try to bury the vote hours before, instead of switching around like a moron for the last couple of hours. The entire thing was pretty much an inexperience play, with me not having the quiet newbie shield to hide behind anymore. There is also all that I can give you from the PMs between me and blade (which admittedly not a lot) and, probably most importantly, the fact that blade never suspected me, never voted for me, and his story reconciles with mine. Oh, and the fact that if the lovers tradition holds, I might die during the next night cycle anyway. While even this might not be enough to completely clear me, I think it should be enough for me to live another day.

[st.cronin]

Saldana, even if you think hoops is bad, that means he's the WIZARD - which means lynching him is pointless.

hoops, CW, and Barkeep are NOT henchmen, and I'm pretty sure we can only lynch henchmen.

[Alan T]

Saldana, even if you think hoops is bad, that means he's the WIZARD - which means lynching him is pointless.

hoops, CW, and Barkeep are NOT henchmen, and I'm pretty sure we can only lynch henchmen.


Cronin, I'm not doubting you, but where do you see that Fozzie said he cant be lynched? I tried looking for it, and all I could find was that he is nearly impossible to kill, only in certain circumstances. But the way I interpreteded it, lynching the Wizard he would have the option of fleeing to avoid death (which was one of the victory conditions)? Am I missing something, or just interpreting wrong?

[hoopsguy]

I'm of the same opinion on Tyrith that Cronin is with me - if Tyrith is a bad guy then I think he is the wizard and not a henchman.

Here is where I depart a little bit, though. I'm not convinced that we don't gain from "lynching" the wizard - I agree that we are unlikely to kill him on the first instance, but it might advance the plot (or allow a night kill by a wolf role). For example, in Coffee Warlord's game we had to attack an elemental twice to finish it.

My thoughts are entirely speculative, based on SirFozzie's description in Post #1 (wizard flees, victory conditions). Cronin, do you have anything in terms of role knowledge that validates that we cannot lynch the wizard?

[st.cronin]

I'm of the same opinion on Tyrith that Cronin is with me - if Tyrith is a bad guy then I think he is the wizard and not a henchman.

Here is where I depart a little bit, though. I'm not convinced that we don't gain from "lynching" the wizard - I agree that we are unlikely to kill him on the first instance, but it might advance the plot (or allow a night kill by a wolf role). For example, in Coffee Warlord's game we had to attack an elemental twice to finish it.

My thoughts are entirely speculative, based on SirFozzie's description in Post #1 (wizard flees, victory conditions). Cronin, do you have anything in terms of role knowledge that validates that we cannot lynch the wizard?

You guys might be right about lynching a wizard. I don't have any role knowledge to guide us - only that I can't detect the wizard - so one of the guys I scanned COULD be a wizard. I just think it makes little sense to go after somebody who might be the wizard - I think it's a poor risk/reward ratio.

[Alan T]

I agree with that, which is why I'm pushing for people to look at the three I listed. I just wanted to make sure that I didn't miss something. I'm guessing at some point we will need to go after the wizard, and am guessing lynch is the way to do it.

[Schmidty]

I don't know what to do.

I don't think Anxiety is bad, and I think hoops may be. At the same time, I don't want a tie.

[Schmidty]

Am I right regarding the count? hoops 2, Anxiety 2? I don't have time to count them

[Schmidty]

Fuck, I don't know what to do.

[Alan T]

Its 3-2 Anxiety right now, but we have till monday night. no deadline tonight. So really no huge worry about ties right now.

[Schmidty]

Vote Tyrith

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty, you have a lot of time to figure it out - deadline isn't until Monday (see thread title). Work through it, try to make a good decision.

[Schmidty]

Its 3-2 Anxiety right now, but we have till monday night. no deadline tonight. So really no huge worry about ties right now.

Aha.

Ok then. :)

[Schmidty]

Unvote Tyrith

[Blade6119]

Am i the only one that found it hilarious that Schmidtys vote did nothing to change the tie he thought was there?

Much love buddy, you make it all worth it with your comments sometimes

[Abe Sargent]

Heehee

[Barkeep49]

Saldana when you're less drunk I'd love for you to take a look at my post in response to you and see what you can find.

[Schmidty]

Am i the only one that found it hilarious that Schmidtys vote did nothing to change the tie he thought was there?

Much love buddy, you make it all worth it with your comments sometimes

saldana just mailed me a bunch of highly potent beers. Blame it on him. :D

[st.cronin]

Schmidty, you have a lot of time to figure it out.

I have a feeling he'll need every minute. No offense, Schmidty. :D

[Schmidty]

I have a feeling he'll need every minute. No offense, Schmidty. :D

No offense taken.

I am the world's worst WW player, and proud of it!!!!!! ;)

(and inebriated a lot lately)

[hoopsguy]

Out until tomorrow evening - visiting the extended family this weekend.

[Barkeep49]

Post recap for Anxiety.

94 – Hates doing the I am a villager routine
96 – Meaningless post
97 – Meaningless post
111 – Meaningless post
114 – Meaningless post
133 – Disagrees with hoops calling people out who have not posted. Thinks it is unreasonable over the holiday weekend
139 – Still thinks hoops’ strategy is “premature”
147 – Meaningless post
153 – Points out the Fozzie used a plural in talking about Wizard companions meaning at least 3 baddies
157 – Feels that the wizard is a player character
184 – Clarifies a hoops scenario which suggests we need to kill the companions before we can kill the Wizard
185 – Wants to call the Wizard’s helpers “things”
215 – Looking forward to the game
217 – Meaningless post
219 –
I have no clue who to vote for. I agree with path though that is seems like Blade is more weary than Righteous. Tyrith I don't have a read on a a normal villager/wolf/non-thing, since he has never boon one before.

It's Tuesday night, however. On two previous nights I ended up getting lynched and getting massive attenion because I ent out on a date, so I am telling you all now that I'm leaving for a date soon. We'll have dinner and go see X3 in the theaters. I will not be back by the deadline I suspect, so I need to vote now.

There are several reasons why I am voting thusly. One, because being the first to jump on a new guy is a bit antagonistic for me. Secondly, being the first to jump on anyone is a bit antagonistic for me. Thirdly, jumping on someone for what they did in a previous game (were quiet) is a bit too antagonsitic for me.

And fourth, it's just not in character for me to vote for anyone else

Vote Barkeep
222 – Meaningless post
324 – Tries to interpret tangle’s death sequence. Suggests tangle might be a bad guy.
332 – Meaningless post
352 – Clarifies that veteran players are saying that Qwik could have been killed for many reasons
368 – Votes for hoopsguy based on cronin’s reasoning that hoops wanted to start discussing strategy and had fingered suspects during night 0.
406 – Suggests one side might know more then the other about ties
432 – Feels hoops is pushing more then is necessary. Keeps vote on hoops
435 – Has settled on calling bad guys antagonists
500 – Hmm. I was hoping that you guys were right about mckerney. Does the fact that there was not a late switch that killed hoopsguy, just thretened him mean he's clear or that he's more likely to be dirty than ever. I;d love to hear the thoughts of those more experienced, because my head sometimes hurts when I think hard about WW.
502 – Thinks Blade is clear. “He looks foul but feels fair” using a LOTR analogy
519 – Meaningless post
536 – Responding to schmidity, who called one of his own posts “stupidest post ever” that it sounds like every WW post to him
542 – Defends the fact that he hasn’t voted against a known good guy after only two votes. Understands the line of reasoning about trying not to get noticed with votes though
548 – In response to my clarifying something states that he wanted to make sure his response was out there during the night cycle in case I, Barkeep, got whacked
652 – Still thinks there are 3 bad guys
676 – Okay, just woke up a half hour ago, and I'll soon be packing. I'm heading out to a friend's place tonight and playing Magic and I'll be out all night. I might be able to use his computer to check back in, later, but who knows.

Wow! Lots of stuff happening and information being revealed. For the record, here is my own littel circle of trust:

Trust: Blade, Hoops
Distrust: Cronin, Lathum's cryptic statement

Everybody else is in the middle. I have to vote now, because I don't know if I'll be able to log on or not from my friend's place.

Do you ever feel that you know a lot more and yet are still having difficutly who to vote for? That's me right now.

I find myself believing hoops, for now at least.

Does anybody else find Cronin to be playing rather erratically? I'd like to hear more from Lathum, but I understand if he's not willing to give it up. I just don't think Lathum should have said anything at all until there was serious heat on Blade, and there wasn't.

Still, poor strategy does not an antagonist make. Us wolves have to stick together. For now, I'm going to roll my view of cronin.

Vote st.cronin
682 – Believes cronins reveal but thinks his actions have been a “bit off”
694 – Continues to claim ignorance about strategy, but doesn’t want to reveal his role as it gives too many targets for baddies
698 – Doesn’t know any bad guys
705 – Feels Blade left us in a bad situation, despite being right to reveal what he knew
710 – In response to tyrith suggesting he is playing like he did as a bad guy last game, that he, Anxiety, is still new
715 – Talks about how great it was last game when the two new players were the only bad guys
724 – Meaningless post
725 – Agrees with cronin that there were no late switches because it was between two good guys. Vote remains on cronin
734 – Wants hoops to explain his suspect list
750 – Meaningless post
886 – [Posted after deadline, before reveal]Does not think path is a bad guy. Seems to trust Blade, Lathum, Cronin, Saldana, Hoops
977 – Believes someone he trusts isn’t trusthworthy. Now thinks cronin is good but saldana bad.
996 – Doesn’t like hoops post to Tyrith about Tyrith’s blade connection. Calls it a “get out of jail free card”
1006 – Points out to Hoops foz’s line about Blade’s death having a bigger impact on someone
1007 – Duplicate post
1008 – Asks Tyrith if he was affected by Blade’s death
1029 – Believes CW when CW says saldana is a good guy. Votes for hoops
1040 – Points out to CW that he, Anxiety, hasn’t voted for Tyrith
1062 – Meaningless post

So I am prepared to vote for Anxiety after having done that but want to see what others think of the recap before I post my reasons. That and I want this to be active tomorrow as I am working and it will entertain me if this thread is active during that time :).

[st.cronin]

Trust: Blade, Hoops
Distrust: Cronin, Lathum's cryptic statement


What interests me most about that recap is this bit. Assuming Anxiety turns out to be a bad guy, what do we make of this? Any thought's BK? Does it clear hoops and lathum?

[Barkeep49]

What interests me most about that recap is this bit. Assuming Anxiety turns out to be a bad guy, what do we make of this? Any thought's BK? Does it clear hoops and lathum?
Yeah I found that part interesting as well which is why it's one of the posts I quoted. I normally post posts which I simply can not find a way to recap in a sentence or two or which I think contains interesting information. That most certainly fell into the interesting information category. More about my analysis tomorrow. I am a bit of a tease at the moment :)

[st.cronin]

Well, you're a bastard.

[st.cronin]

I would look at it this way: who has Anxiety AVOIDED talking about, or engaging.


ardent
alan t

and to a lesser extent:

schmidty

[Alan T]

Thanks for that recap Barkeep. Like Ive been saying for a few days, I feel Anxiety is all over the place. Also over 50% of his posts don't really provide much information. its like he is trying to post to be active without committing to much.

Re: 1072 from Cronin, Without trying to draw a ton of scruity on myself, I honestly don't think many people have talked about me much. I would like to think that is because I've been trying to do what I can to be active and help us narrow down our circles of trust.

[Alan T]

Thanks for that recap Barkeep. Like Ive been saying for a few days, I feel Anxiety is all over the place. Also over 50% of his posts don't really provide much information. its like he is trying to post to be active without committing to much.

Re: 1072 from Cronin, Without trying to draw a ton of scruity on myself, I honestly don't think many people have talked about me much. I would like to think that is because I've been trying to do what I can to be active and help us narrow down our circles of trust.


And that should be Scrutiny, not Scruity.. stupid laptop keyboards

[st.cronin]

Thanks for that recap Barkeep. Like Ive been saying for a few days, I feel Anxiety is all over the place. Also over 50% of his posts don't really provide much information. its like he is trying to post to be active without committing to much.

Re: 1072 from Cronin, Without trying to draw a ton of scruity on myself, I honestly don't think many people have talked about me much. I would like to think that is because I've been trying to do what I can to be active and help us narrow down our circles of trust.

Well, I'm not sure it means anything. Blade seemed to trust you, but I think that was based on all vibe and no data. Of those three, I would rate you least likely to be bad.

[Alan T]

Something that would be interesting to see is a list like Barkeep did for Anxiety, also for Schmidty and Tyrith. From my perspective, all three of them have behaved somewhat similar this game (with little personal twists).

[st.cronin]

Something that would be interesting to see is a list like Barkeep did for Anxiety, also for Schmidty and Tyrith. From my perspective, all three of them have behaved somewhat similar this game (with little personal twists).

Tyrith, I somewhat agree. Schmidty I'm not so sure about. He's been pretty much the same old Schmidty afaict.

[Alan T]

Tyrith, I somewhat agree. Schmidty I'm not so sure about. He's been pretty much the same old Schmidty afaict.


Well the thing is, it might be how he normally acts, but it still is as erratic as others. I guess its an ongoing nit I have with some folks who always play so crazy that it is hard to pick them out as a baddie, and doesnt necessarily make things easy when they are on my team.. But Its just a game, and if thats how folks enjoy to play then its cool with me :) Just makes it harder when someone -always- acts suspicious :)

[Poli]

I apologize, everyone.

I'm going to have drop out. Net access here is spotty, at best.

[SirFozzie]

No Prob, AE. we'll get cover for ya :)

[Barkeep49]

My promised post on Anxiety's posts:

First he has a lot of meaningless posts. A lot of "heehee"s for instance. If you want to check my labeling of posts as meaningless please feel free. But you will notice that some posts which I recapped, are often just repeating, supposedly for "clarification" what someone else has said. You can see this in posts 352 185 for a couple of examples. All of this together does seem to give the impression of more activity then has actually been done, especially when people click to see how many posts a person has done in the thread.

And then there is the rationale of his first couple of days votes. Now I admit all rationales in the first couple of days looks weak. But I quoted his vote for me since I thought it was particularly specious logic at the time and think it no less suspicious now.

Post 324 is when my radar really starts to go off. He tries to come up with a farfangled way for tangle to be thought of as a bad guy. This, coupled with his repeated assertions of three bad guys, seems like a play. If, as a bad guy, he can convince people that one of the bad guys is gone it will make them look in wrong directions/relax.

Post 406 is of interest. Upon casual reading it suggests that the bad guys might know more about ties then good guys. In fact I almost recapped it that way. But a careful reading shows that he just thinks one side knows more then the other about votes. With what we now know about cronin, it seems that one side might know more, but it's the GOOD guys, not the bad guys.

Post 542 he admits that when he played as a bad guy last game he tried not to get noticed, but insists that he's not doing that this game. Hmm, indeed.

Post 548 was interesting because it suggests that he wasn't too worried about being killed himself, and is more worried about me being whacked. Not the typical good guy thought, as normally people are more concerned about themselves, though not really a bad guy thought necessarily either.

676 is when things start getting bad for him. It is the first of two times when he goes from voting for a person to insisting that they are highly trusted. These changes practically gave me whiplash. In 676 there's no real explanation for how he went from voting for hoops, even saying that he was confident of the vote later on in post 432, to having him in his trust list. Things aren't helped when in 682 when he states he believes cronin's reveal but still seems fishy. Huh? How can you believe cronin's reveal, which makes him a good guy, but still think he's a bad guy? Of course by post 886 he suddenly trusts cronin. Again no explanation for the turnabout.

At least today when he votes for hoops we see some of the change, starting with hoop's tyrith post which Anxiety cleverly calls a "get out of jail free card". Hoops had mysteriously appeared on Anxiety's trust list, and as of 886 was still there, but now he's once again Anxiety's target.

All things considered I think there is a lot of stuff there to suggest Anxiety is a great target and so I'm pleased to

Vote Anxiety

[saldana]

Saldana when you're less drunk I'd love for you to take a look at my post in response to you and see what you can find.


ok, sorry i forgot to mention i would be off the board all day yesterday, got up insanely early to drive home from montreal, and went straight to a wedding, but i am sober and well rested and ready to rip the wizards throat out.

BK,i did what you asked and what i can tell you is this........i'm vince young..

i hope that answered your questions, if not, we can continue this, but i dont want to be too blunt.

cronin, as far as what value we get if we lynch hoops, there are a couple things...
1. if he is a henchman, we kill a henchman
2. if he is the wizard, which given your sniff, is a distinct possibility, and we lynch him, we will find out definitively if we CAN lynch him or not, and if not, at least we waste no more time searching for him and can begin to tie people to him that will be the henchman.
3. also, if he is the wizard and survives the lynching, we didnt kill another wolf for him by voting for the wrong person again.

i do think we are on the right track with anxiety, and if my vote is needed to lynch him, i will move it, but right for now, i am gonna leave it with hoops.

[Barkeep49]

Ok saldana is most definetely good in my eyes and based on his response I think I'm good in his eyes. Can you confirm that saldana?

[Barkeep49]

2. if he is the wizard, which given your sniff, is a distinct possibility, and we lynch him, we will find out definitively if we CAN lynch him or not, and if not, at least we waste no more time searching for him and can begin to tie people to him that will be the henchman.

You might have missed this but hoops' sniff was no different then anyone elses. So hoops might be the wizard but we recieved no insight, either way, on that from the sniff.

[Coffee Warlord]

Going to go with Barkeep on this one. While I'm still skeptical about hoops, I'm thinking Anxiety has a far better chance of being a bad guy. We can worry about hoops later, and/or hope we get a seer type thing on him.

Vote Anxiety

[saldana]

Ok saldana is most definetely good in my eyes and based on his response I think I'm good in his eyes. Can you confirm that saldana?
absolutely, now that i have fully functioning neurons again, i can say with as much certainty as there is in WW, that you are a good guy and #1 on my trust list.

[Barkeep49]

Ok so my Dynasty (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=48645) has now been updated so I'm looking to this thread to keep me somewhat amused for the next 3 hours.

[st.cronin]

Ok so my Dynasty (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=48645) has now been updated so I'm looking to this thread to keep me somewhat amused for the next 3 hours.

A termite walks into a bar, and says, "Excuse me, where is the bar tender?"

[Barkeep49]

Two guys walk into a bar. The third one ducks.

[st.cronin]

nice

Some questions BK - do you know the current vote count? And who do you want me to "sniff" the next night?

[Abe Sargent]

Okay. It’s apparently cards on the table time. In case you lynch me tomorrow, I want you to have all of the information that I have available to you to figure out what is going on.

I have a role that, quite frankly, I’ve never heard of. I am a werewitch. BTW, Foz, although I think the name is fairly clever, couldn’t you have given me something more…masculine? Maybe werewarlock or somesuch? ;)

I have extra-sensory canine powers and every night, I get a vague “intuition” which I assume represents my mystical abilities. Here are the intuitions I received:

Night 0 – I sensed a foreign presence in our ragtag pack coming from three directions. I interpreted this to mean that there were three antagonists.

Night 1 – I sensed eyes upon me. I did not know how to interpret this. Seer? Witness? Bodyguard? Reverse Seer? Just SF’s way of amping up the paranoia?

Night 2 – I sensed that someone I trusted was not what he appeared to be.

Night 3 (Last night) – Just the opposite. I sensed that someone I did not trust was not who he appeared to be.

On Day Two, I absolutely trusted cronin and blade, and rather trusted saldana and hoops. Therefore, on Day Three, after getting the intuition about someone I trusted, I hopped on cronin.

However, since then, I’ve come to view cronin as one of us. Therefore, today I am looking at saldana or hoops.

I do not know what to do with my Night 3 intuition yet.

I did release that there may be an alternate interpretation of my intuitions. When SF says that someone “you” trusted or did not trust, he may not have meant me specifically, but us as a group. You can be meant both ways. My powers, such as they are, are nebulous at best.

Anyway, hope that helps.

-Anxiety

[Barkeep49]

Here's the vote count I have:
Anxiety -- Cronin(922), Alan T(998), Tyrith(1002), Barkeep49(1081)
Hoops -- saldana(1022), Anxiety(1029)

Obviously it's still early so it's too soon to tell what's going on.

[Barkeep49]

As for who I'd want you to sniff, I think it sort of depends on how Anxiety comes out. If he's dirty I think you have to possibly look at people like Alan and Lathum who don't have anyone vouching for them. If he's clean I'm not sure, but maybe Tyrith?

[Barkeep49]

Anxiety I'm glad to see your "role reveal" out there. This is a fairly worthless role, however, at the moment and as such it increases the chances, at least to me, of being a fake role. But I will give some thought to what you've said and see if someone else comes out worse then you.

[Coffee Warlord]

Snip Snip

Hmm.

-- Why I Don't Buy It

1) It seems to me we have quite a few individuals who have already claimed a quasi seer-esque power. I think we've got one too many of those already.

2) You're now attempting to focus distrust on one person I absolutely trust (Saldana) and one person I don't particularly trust, but we've already gone round and round on him. (Hoopsguy). Of those two, one has voted for the other, and this could be an attempt to try and get a voting war between those two going.

-- Why I Buy It

1) You've described a power that would entirely fit a Fozzie game. It does sound fairly genuine.

-- In Short

Don't buy it, unless someone I trust comes forward and corroborates his story. From your description, it DOES seem like someone could do that.

[Abe Sargent]

Remember, even I admit my my one intuition about who "you" could have referred to us as a pack and not me as a werewitch. So although I am interpretating it as meaning hoops, saldana or cornin, it could mean whoever we trusted as a group at that time. Plus, the description says not what they appear to be, not necessarily wizard-esque. It's too vague for me to be sure about saladana and hoops and cronin, but if you guys can figure it out, it's good to toss it out there.

BYW, I would like to point out that I was absolutely under the radar until I voted for cronin. I had begun to ally myself with cronin and saldana, I have people vouching for me, why would I bring massive susupicion on me if I were an antagonist? I may not have much experience, but I certainly know enough not to do something like that if I am an antagonist. Especially since I was one last time after being converted and I brought suspicion on myself early.

I did it because I believed it was the right vote, not because I wanted to stay under the radar.

-Anxiety





Hmm.

-- Why I Don't Buy It

1) It seems to me we have quite a few individuals who have already claimed a quasi seer-esque power. I think we've got one too many of those already.

2) You're now attempting to focus distrust on one person I absolutely trust (Saldana) and one person I don't particularly trust, but we've already gone round and round on him. (Hoopsguy). Of those two, one has voted for the other, and this could be an attempt to try and get a voting war between those two going.

-- Why I Buy It

1) You've described a power that would entirely fit a Fozzie game. It does sound fairly genuine.

-- In Short

Don't buy it, unless someone I trust comes forward and corroborates his story. From your description, it DOES seem like someone could do that.

[Barkeep49]

I would agree that there is someone out there who could corroborate his story. But I'm not so sure we're seer heavy as so far we haven't had anyone come out and say they're a traditional seer. So perhaps the seer role has been split into two, as it was in king's game.

[Barkeep49]

Anxiety you were on my radar ever since you voted for me with an admitted hypocritical reason on D1. I had just stayed quiet about it until someone else looked your way. Which brings me to the point: Who has vouched for you in this game?

[Coffee Warlord]

But I'm not so sure we're seer heavy as so far we haven't had anyone come out and say they're a traditional seer. So perhaps the seer role has been split into two, as it was in king's game.

If that's the case, I kind of think the "second seer" would be more powerful than what Anxiety has described, if indeed his role qualifies as it.

Furthermore, if this is the case, I think probably the most likely way Anxiety would have sensed someone is if Cronin sniffed his ass. Which, if we believe Cronin, he didn't.

[Barkeep49]

Anxiety: Before post 692 is there anything you've posted which suggests you might have a role?

[Alan T]

So far, Im not putting a ton of weight behind anyone's claims unless its backed up by someone else I trust. Right now the only person who I am really letting my trust go for is the folks Cronin is backing. (btw if you want to scan me tonight Cronin, go for it, unless you have someone you feel is a better choice. I feel that I have been trying to make strong cases for a few people and having you back me up on those would make it easier I think for me).

Either way, the three people I still have been focusing on for a few days now are Anxiety, Schmidty and Tyrith. Unless people come out to back up Anxiety's story somehow, Im likely going to keep my vote here.

[st.cronin]

If there is a second seer, I suspect it is somebody who can find the wizard, but not the henchmen.

[Barkeep49]

So out of curiousity Alan what makes you trust Cronin, and by extention, his circle? I've been quietly ruminating to myself about this for the last few minutes. As if our trust in cronin is misplaced we're in trouble, so I would be curious as to what makes others place their trust in him.

[st.cronin]

So out of curiousity Alan what makes you trust Cronin, and by extention, his circle? I've been quietly ruminating to myself about this for the last few minutes. As if our trust in cronin is misplaced we're in trouble, so I would be curious as to what makes others place their trust in him.

Keep in mind that my role reveal came early in a gameday when there were very few votes on anybody. I did so because I thought the chance of me getting killed at night had reached the point where it made more sense to come forward, even not having IDed a single henchman. By all means, go through my posts - I was somewhat misleading in the first three gamedays, but today I've been completely open.

[Alan T]

So out of curiousity Alan what makes you trust Cronin, and by extention, his circle? I've been quietly ruminating to myself about this for the last few minutes. As if our trust in cronin is misplaced we're in trouble, so I would be curious as to what makes others place their trust in him.

The first few days I had some issues in my head on whether to trust cronin or hoops in their earlier going back and forth. At first I started leaning towards hoops as his arguements usually have pretty good reasoning (a very dangerous thing if he is not on our team). Then the next day when the Blade vs Hoops thing came into play, watching cronin back peddle some made me a bit uneasy. Now we understand why he did that based on his reveal. I think for the most part he has been consistant with his story even though he seemed inconsistant the first few days.

The other thing that I have been trying to figure out is how Cronin first revealed his role (the tiebreak announcement stuff) before he released his info about the seer part of his role. When he initially did it, it made me a bit curious more than distrustful of him, because of how he said it contradicted a few things I knew to be true just slightly. In a later day he clarified it some and it made more sense to me, and allowed me to feel comfortable with him as being on our side. I could go into more details, but I don't think this is necessarily the best time as revealing the rest of my role right now invalidates it a bit (or makes it less potent or less of a suprise for the bad guys I should say).

[Abe Sargent]

I don't know, I'd have to check.

-Anxiety

[Coffee Warlord]

So out of curiousity Alan what makes you trust Cronin, and by extention, his circle? I've been quietly ruminating to myself about this for the last few minutes. As if our trust in cronin is misplaced we're in trouble, so I would be curious as to what makes others place their trust in him.

You'n me both, to be honest. But, I just went back to his post of people he has mostly cleared.

Hoops - Even he questioned.
Blade - Obviously a wolf.
Barkeep - You're pretty high on my list of people to trust.
Me - Duh. :)

That's 2 people I know are good guys, 1 person I'm pretty damn sure is a good guy, and the ever present hoops. If Cronin was lying about his role, it seems sort of silly with the people he's chosen to clear.

[saldana]

that may have been the most worthless reveal ever...you gave us absolutely nothing in terms of new or helpful information, plus the name of your role isnt really consistent with what you say you can do.

i would expect more power than a vauge sense of trust to be vested in a witch. that coupled with what i already believe about seer types in this game and i call shenanigans on your role reveal.

[saldana]

dola, i was refering to anxiety's reveal

[Alan T]

dola, i was refering to anxiety's reveal


I figured :)

[Barkeep49]

If Cronin was lying about his role, it seems sort of silly with the people he's chosen to clear.You should know, better then anyone, about this topic. If you are going to be a seer and are a bad guy you should only try and clear good guys, with MAYBE one exception thrown in. So interestingly enough I don't really distrust his info much, either way. I just want to make sure we're on good footing with trusting him. And it makes me happy to know I'm not the only one having this thought.

[Barkeep49]

Werewitch sounds like a role which could be in the game. But I would suspect it would have something direct to do with the wizzard. Afterall a werewitch sounds like the werewolf version of a wizard. So, as mentioned before, that part gives credibility. The rest of the info? Not so much.

[Abe Sargent]

My previous post was in response to Barkeep's question.

Doesn;t look like it. Of course, I used the info from my Night 0 intuition early, but I did not allude to a role. I didn't, at the time, know what kind of information I would get from my role, so I absolutely tried to keep it to myself until after I used my info to vote for cronin. Without knowing how much info you'll get, why upset the cart? Especially when the antagonists have no idea who to go after, why hint that you might be a good target?

BTW, Barkeep, you even posted that you agreed with my reasons except for the tongue in cheek reason four for voting for you on Day One. You can't say they were good reasons then and bad now. Pick a lane :)

-Anxiety

[Barkeep49]

I don't know, I'd have to check.

-Anxiety
Well then I would assume the answer is no.

Also a big shout out to Pseudodragon, who's been lurking in the thread for a while. Hope you are thinking of joining in this fun next game!

[Barkeep49]

Actually the only point Anxiety that I agreed was fair was being the first person to cast a vote on D1 could be suspicious. We have no empircal data to suggest it is suspicious but I did understand how it could be viewed that way. The rest of the points I thought had no validity.

[Alan T]

Well then I would assume the answer is no.

Also a big shout out to Pseudodragon, who's been lurking in the thread for a while. Hope you are thinking of joining in this fun next game!

lol

[st.cronin]

The first few days I had some issues in my head on whether to trust cronin or hoops in their earlier going back and forth. At first I started leaning towards hoops as his arguements usually have pretty good reasoning (a very dangerous thing if he is not on our team). Then the next day when the Blade vs Hoops thing came into play, watching cronin back peddle some made me a bit uneasy. Now we understand why he did that based on his reveal. I think for the most part he has been consistant with his story even though he seemed inconsistant the first few days.

The other thing that I have been trying to figure out is how Cronin first revealed his role (the tiebreak announcement stuff) before he released his info about the seer part of his role. When he initially did it, it made me a bit curious more than distrustful of him, because of how he said it contradicted a few things I knew to be true just slightly. In a later day he clarified it some and it made more sense to me, and allowed me to feel comfortable with him as being on our side. I could go into more details, but I don't think this is necessarily the best time as revealing the rest of my role right now invalidates it a bit (or makes it less potent or less of a suprise for the bad guys I should say).

Without giving up your role, can you say a little bit more about what you mean?

[Barkeep49]

Well then I would assume the answer is no.
Rereading this, it comes off harsher then I really want it to be. I simply meant that if he had to look back in his posts for hints about a role, it's less likely those hints are there. If he'd been dropping sutble clues since N0 or D1 I'd give more weight to believing him.

[Lathum]

As for who I'd want you to sniff, I think it sort of depends on how Anxiety comes out. If he's dirty I think you have to possibly look at people like Alan and Lathum who don't have anyone vouching for them. If he's clean I'm not sure, but maybe Tyrith?
I cleared blade long before he was killed when there was heat on him so why is my name coming up in this. If I was a baddie I would have kept my mouth shut and not vouched for him.

[Barkeep49]

I cleared blade long before he was killed when there was heat on him so why is my name coming up in this. If I was a baddie I would have kept my mouth shut and not vouched for him.
A fair point but doesn't change my underlying point that no one is vouching for you. It would be nice if cronin were able to do that.

[st.cronin]

I somewhat trust Lathum, but I can't remember why. Let me go back and look.

[Alan T]

Without giving up your role, can you say a little bit more about what you mean?


It might be hard to do without giving up too much, let me try here though. Look at day 2. Your first vote was an out of the blue vote for hoops because he was "bad news" no real rhyme or reason there. Your next post gives your role, a post which doesnt directly contradict what I know to be true, but did not necessarily mesh up with it. At this point is about when I got back in town and had to catch up on two days of voting posts.

You then post a clarification to your role which made things a little easier for me, but either I missed it or did not read it entirely as I dont feel my suspicion for you had died down at that point. If you then read my first real post besides the one that said I was back and trying to catch up, you will see my questioning you and your reveal. I had a feeling your role reveal at that point wasnt necessarily real, but was not sure then if it was for good reasons or bad reasons.

In the next day when you went back and forth with Blade some, you posted some things that Blade jumped on you as being contradictions of what you had said previously, but for me they were more clarification of how you understood your role, but more importantly finally matched up with what I believed to be true.

[Barkeep49]

I also partially trust Lathum because he's been early and right on a lot of people.

[Schmidty]

Either way, the three people I still have been focusing on for a few days now are Anxiety, Schmidty and Tyrith. Unless people come out to back up Anxiety's story somehow, Im likely going to keep my vote here.

I've asked you multiple times the past few games, and I don't think given me any good reason for me being included as a strong suspect.

[Barkeep49]

Well schmidty I'll give you a reason: You aren't in anyones circle of trust. Granted I'm not sure how rocksolid the current cronin-bk-saldana-coffee-hoops circle is, but it's a damn good starting point as it's narrowed down the field quite a bit.

[Alan T]

I've asked you multiple times the past few games, and I don't think given me any good reason for me being included as a strong suspect.


I actually made two different posts in reply to you :) Not sure if you saw them or missed them.. But you have been acting pretty similar to the other two who I also distrust. Someone argued against me that you act this way every game, to which I replied that may be true, but it doesn't make things any easier to differ your behavior from Anxiety or Tyrith's behavior.
Basically you have stayed unattached from everyone, I dont think many people other than myself and maybe one or two people have been mentioning you good or bad, and all of your posts are borderline crazy sounding so its hard to pull out any kind of info from them. Right now with our circle of trust extending, its starting to make those who are not in my circle stand out a bit more.

[st.cronin]

Lathum's post history since roles were handed out

168 - votes for McKerney because he is quieter than usual
177 - attacks McKerney for calling himself a villager
180 - expands on his attack
187 - questions Blade's assertion that "the wolves are making a mistake"
220 - "off to work"
361 - wants to know what I mean by calling hoopsguy "bad luck"
381 - wants clarification on my role
389 - "I think there is something fishy about st.cronin..."
391 - "leaving for work"
393 - votes mckerney, for being quiet
551 - wonders if a tie could clear either me or saldana
565 - wonders if there was a conversion
568 - asks Blade for clarification on Blade's challenge of hoopsguy's role reveal
569 - I feel pretty good about schmidty right now, he made a late switch of Mckerney when he could have just left his vote on mckerney and sealed the fate of a wolf. Why would schmidty do that and call all that attention to himself if he was a baddie?
573 - continues to press Blade
578 - more pressing on Blade and hoops
605 - asks Blade if he's the witness
613 - demands to know if Blade is the witness
615 - jokey post
622 - thinks it's important to find out why Blade wasn't killed
(Tyrith, 623 - "or weren't converted")
628 - more pressing on Blade
633 - pressing on hoops
646 - more
649 - says Blade and hoops are both telling the truth, trusts me and saldana
661 - would rather not say why he trusts hoops
667 - Hoops and Blade, I think you are focusing to much attention on each other and playing into the baddies hands.

Trust me, you are both telling the truth and need to look elsewhere.
685 - doesn't trust anxiety, trusts schmidty, doesn't trust ardent
688 - goes over Anxiety's voting record
689 - votes Anxiety
693 - "off to work"
865 - I just got back from work and reread everything. Crazy is all I have to say. That and I am surprised Blade isn't supporting me more.
875 - where is Foz
891 - i wonder where foz is? this could effect peoples night actions.
907 - will be away all weekend
910 - suggests a quick night turnaround
918 - funny post, actually - I told you guys I was positive about blade
937 - I think they went for blade acting under the assumption he can't be protected 2 nights in a row.

I still trust hoops, protecting Saldana on day 2 may be random but usually the first few days are unless there is a role reveal.

The question I have is if hoops didn't protect blade on night 2 then how did he survive an attack? Any info on this would be helpfull.
940 - asks hoops if he has protected anybody yet
944 - wonders if Blade is blessed
947 - suggests it is "VERY IMPORTANT" to know why the message I got about hoops was different
948 - has to go now
955 - wonders if hoops has had a succesful protection
1119 - says he cleared blade before he was killed

[Schmidty]

I actually made two different posts in reply to you :) Not sure if you saw them or missed them.. But you have been acting pretty similar to the other two who I also distrust. Someone argued against me that you act this way every game, to which I replied that may be true, but it doesn't make things any easier to differ your behavior from Anxiety or Tyrith's behavior.
Basically you have stayed unattached from everyone, I dont think many people other than myself and maybe one or two people have been mentioning you good or bad, and all of your posts are borderline crazy sounding so its hard to pull out any kind of info from them. Right now with our circle of trust extending, its starting to make those who are not in my circle stand out a bit more.

That still doesn't really answer my question. Why does my play-style (i.e. lazy until attacked) scream bad-guy to you? What the hell should I be doing that I normally don't do?

I'd just like to be able to clear my name, because we can't lose any more wolves.

[Barkeep49]

Schmidty I don't think he's saying you are doing anything MORE so just that your general style is baddie whether you are good or bad. So not a whole lot you could defend from what he's saying I think.

[Alan T]

yeah, basically what I said yesterday is before circles of trust are built up, you only have two things to go on.. 1) a person's votes, 2) what they say and how they say it. (ie: play style in some cases).

The way you normally play makes it very different to tell the difference between when you are bad or good for me because you always come across as odd. Im not meaning this in a bad way in any way, I like that there are different types of play styles as it makes this game fun for me. I feel a similar way about Quick, at least in the games i have played with him.. It gets you so worked up that you cant tell if they are good or bad, so it makes you want to vote for them just to clear it out of your head.

I think for today, everything that Anxiety says just sinks him further in my books so its going to take alot to convince me to move my vote from him. However after today, the other two people I really have alot of doubts about are you and Tyrith. So unless people start to clear you, or you somehow clear yourself in my mind, I might vote for you tommorrow. Not necessarily because you have done things that are horrible, just there is a complete lack of anything that has added to my trust in you I guess so far.

Perhaps a vote on Anxiety here early on would help me have more trust in you, since its far easier to just slide in votes later on when the cards have been laid than earlier on when you put your opinions on the line.

[Barkeep49]

Alan I think all of that is well stated but would argue that despite there being quite a bit of time, at least from my perspective, voting for Anxiety here does not ally any concerns I might have about schmidty.

[Alan T]

Alan I think all of that is well stated but would argue that despite there being quite a bit of time, at least from my perspective, voting for Anxiety here does not ally any concerns I might have about schmidty.


Well alot of my bigger concerns about his actions is most all of them from what I can remember have been late in the play, and fairly calculated to seemingly not do much harm to the bad guys if he was one of them. The only controversial thing he has done so far was that late move which could likely have been from wolf to wolf. (i believe he moved from mckerney to hoops, maybe I have that backwards). But even then at the time if mckerney was being lynched, moving off of a wolf at the last little bit could arguably make him look better. I guess what I want from him is a little more of what his thoughts are about folks, and perhaps putting his own stake in the ground to see where he is placing his loyalties. Not just waiting till 9pm EST on Monday night to make a decision based on whatever he bases his votes on.

[hoopsguy]

Anxiety, going back to your reveal post #1091:
Night 2 – I sensed that someone I trusted was not what he appeared to be.

Night 3 (Last night) – Just the opposite. I sensed that someone I did not trust was not who he appeared to be.

Did you submit trust lists to SirFozzie? I'm trying to understand how you could have intuition based on who you (or the group) trusts if there is not an established trust list?

[hoopsguy]

Next question - has anyone else felt "eyes upon them" over the course of the game? If that is something coming from a enemy seer, perhaps someone else (who is not as intuitive as Anxiety claims to be) has experienced this sensation?

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep

[Alan T]

Next question - has anyone else felt "eyes upon them" over the course of the game? If that is something coming from a enemy seer, perhaps someone else (who is not as intuitive as Anxiety claims to be) has experienced this sensation?


As far as I know, I have not had any night action interactions with anyone (seers, enemy seer, bodyguard, attempted kill, etc). If I have, then I have not received any PMs about it.

[st.cronin]

Well, if BK or CW or blade had gotten word of my "sniffing" nobody said anything. I didn't see any hint anywhere in the game that anybody's been aware of my "sniffing." The question of whether there is another seer is interesting; since I explicitly can't find the wizard, it seems plausible to me that there is another seer/sniffer who CAN find the wizard. I suggested around the time of Blade's reveal that it might be a combo seer/hunter role - that that's how the wizard gets killed, if this "hunter" finds the wizard at night. Or maybe he can find him one night, and kill him the next night.

[hoopsguy]

Oops - hit a wrong key.

Barkeep and Coffee - I must be missing something because I don't immediately see someone who can vouch for Anxiety's story but both of you have commented on this.

[st.cronin]

I think they just meant whoever "scanned" Anxiety, if that's what happened. It's possible that as a henchmen, and thus having wizard magic available, he was able to sense the scan in a way that BK and CW did not.

[hoopsguy]

So here is the information I have on people, based on role reveals:

1. Anxiety - witch, no clears
2. Barkeep - cleared by Cronin, matching role with Saldana
4. AlanT - hinted at role, no clears
6. Saldana - cleared by Cronin, matching role with Barkeep
7. Lathum - no clears
8. Cronin - Lawgiver/Henchman Seer, no clears
10. Ardent - no clears
11. Tyrith - brother of Blade?, no clears
12. Schmidty - no clears
13. Coffee Warlord - cleared by Cronin
14. Hoopsguy - bodyguard, cleared by Cronin (different scent, however)

In terms of whether or not to trust Cronin, I think I've gotten to the point in the game where if he has pulled the wool over my eyes I'll just tip my cap to him at the end of the game. Some of his interactions with me in terms of my role on Day 2 and Day 3 - asking for clarification to change his vote near D2 deadline, asking what the role name started with on D3 - seemed convincing to me that he was genuinely looking for information rather than trying to shape the game.

[st.cronin]

hoopsguy, what are your thoughts, if any, on Anxiety and Lathum?

[st.cronin]

btw I have not cleared Saldana.

[hoopsguy]

Edit to the above post - Saldana was not cleared by Cronin, but Barkeep and Saldana are vouching for each other.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum - had him fairly high in my trust list for his earlier statements that Blade and I were both clear. His questions towards me in the game seemed to indicate some knowledge that I was in fact being truthful with my role. That is knowledge that a select few wolf roles, or all the human roles, would possess. I've operated under the assumption that it was the former (select wolf role) rather than the latter. If we are able to determine that Anxiety is a wolf I would have to re-evaluate that proposition.

The erratic nature of Anxiety's play has made me suspect him (as noted, he has been all over the place in terms of trust/distrust on me), but it has also felt pretty easy up to this point for him to take the lead in the voting: 5-2 at this point.

[Coffee Warlord]

Edit to the above post - Saldana was not cleared by Cronin, but Barkeep and Saldana are vouching for each other.

As am I, as far as vouching for Saldana.

[st.cronin]

Do you think you know what role Lathum has?

[st.cronin]

dola

just a yes or no answer please

[hoopsguy]

Anyone have any thoughts on the "traitor to the pack" line back from Blade's Night 2 adventure? I haven't seen much comment on this at all, whether along the lines of my Tyrith scenario, dismissing it as reading too much into Blade's paraphrasing, or important but with some other interpretation.

[hoopsguy]

I did think I knew it as recently as Friday. I'm less sure now.

If I have to answer "yes/no" then the answer at this moment is "no".

[hoopsguy]

What are people's thoughts on what happened with Blade on Night 2, given that I did not guard him but no one died that night?

It is clear that Blade was a wolf, given that he was blasted the next night. So we have to believe his version of events are what he understood them to be. I didn't protect him that night, which means that some other role intervened.

[st.cronin]

Anyone have any thoughts on the "traitor to the pack" line back from Blade's Night 2 adventure? I haven't seen much comment on this at all, whether along the lines of my Tyrith scenario, dismissing it as reading too much into Blade's paraphrasing, or important but with some other interpretation.

I have not been able to make any sense of it. If it's a clue, I don't know what I'm supposed to do with it.

[Barkeep49]

Oops - hit a wrong key.

Barkeep and Coffee - I must be missing something because I don't immediately see someone who can vouch for Anxiety's story but both of you have commented on this.
That is what we were commenting on. That Anxiety should have some who could verify parts of his story.

[Barkeep49]

What are people's thoughts on what happened with Blade on Night 2, given that I did not guard him but no one died that night?

It is clear that Blade was a wolf, given that he was blasted the next night. So we have to believe his version of events are what he understood them to be. I didn't protect him that night, which means that some other role intervened.
I still suggest he was a blessed wolf.

[Alan T]

What are people's thoughts on what happened with Blade on Night 2, given that I did not guard him but no one died that night?

It is clear that Blade was a wolf, given that he was blasted the next night. So we have to believe his version of events are what he understood them to be. I didn't protect him that night, which means that some other role intervened.


Only options I can think of are:

1) Failed conversion attempt? (ie: traitor to the pack thing?)
2) A second bodyguard besides hoops
3) Hoops is lying about being bodyguard and the real bodyguard protected Blade
4) He is blessed (Lathum mentioned this one I think before)

I previously had another option I thought being a conversion took place, and perhaps Blade wasnt being honest. However I highly doubt that is the case now. I don't think I have played in a game where there has been someone who is blessed, so not sure how he could be blessed one night, but not the next (unless thats how that normally works).

Right now I dont know what the traitor to the pack means, but would have to guess either #2 or #3 above. Since Cronin and Lathum both vouch for hoops, and I am going to believe Cronin on this, it looks to me there is another protector who has not spoken up yet. At least thats my take on this.

[st.cronin]

What are people's thoughts on what happened with Blade on Night 2, given that I did not guard him but no one died that night?

It is clear that Blade was a wolf, given that he was blasted the next night. So we have to believe his version of events are what he understood them to be. I didn't protect him that night, which means that some other role intervened.

My best guess is something like this:

I suggested around the time of Blade's reveal that it might be a combo seer/hunter role - that that's how the wizard gets killed, if this "hunter" finds the wizard at night. Or maybe he can find him one night, and kill him the next night.

So, our "hunter" was scouting out Blade - and was able to interfere in the action in that way. It's possible also that the "hunter" then KNOWS who the wizard is - but is keeping that to himself until it becomes possible to kill the wizard.

[hoopsguy]

I would have been more willing to believe conversion, were it not for the fact that Blade showed up dead after Night 3. Having Blade displace the conversion attempt onto someone else isn't a possibility that I'm strongly considering.

I don't see blessed giving us language like "traitor to pack" or being rescued by another wolf in the description.

[Alan T]

My best guess is something like this:



So, our "hunter" was scouting out Blade - and was able to interfere in the action in that way. It's possible also that the "hunter" then KNOWS who the wizard is - but is keeping that to himself until it becomes possible to kill the wizard.

Maybe the hunter is prone to night kills, but can only kill the wizard under a certain condition? such as after he has been lynched once, or after the henchmen are killed or who knows what? So for the hunter to give up his name or role early would risk the only chance to kill the wizard out right as the bodyguard could only guard them so many nights?

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, I don't learn who the attacker is when I am successful in guarding someone.

If the "hunter" - who I envision being the pack leader - is successful in guarding someone and learns who the wizard is, then it would stand to reason that the wizard would know who they are. I don't see the mechanic giving one side information on that encounter but not the other.

[hoopsguy]

Dola - my point in bringing up the bodyguard mechanic is to suggest that for the hunter to learn the role would mean that it is treated differently than the bodyguard role. Not at all impossible, but it would surprise me a little bit.

[st.cronin]

Cronin, I don't learn who the attacker is when I am successful in guarding someone.

If the "hunter" - who I envision being the pack leader - is successful in guarding someone and learns who the wizard is, then it would stand to reason that the wizard would know who they are. I don't see the mechanic giving one side information on that encounter but not the other.

Well, I never thought otherwise. This is all just wild-ass guessing on my part. But I can imagine scenarios where the wizard's team knows who the "hunter" or "pack leader" is and for whatever reason targets a different player.

[st.cronin]

It's also possible that Blade's "wolf-brother" (Tyrith? or somebody else) was the one interfering. The game mechanics there would be something like if one of them is attacked, both survive, but if somehow one is killed, the other one dies the next night.

[Alan T]

It's also possible that Blade's "wolf-brother" (Tyrith? or somebody else) was the one interfering. The game mechanics there would be something like if one of them is attacked, both survive, but if somehow one is killed, the other one dies the next night.

If Tyrith is being honest about that role, then I guess there is a chance we might find out tommorrow night then. I'm still not sure how much I buy that though.

[hoopsguy]

Right, I'm suspicous of the fact that if Tyrith was a brother, then why is he still alive?

People thought I was giving him an "out" but I felt like I was sizing up his noose if he gave the answer that I "coached". Which he did ...

If Tyrith had suggested he had played a role in the Night 2 events I would have looked at this differently.

I haven't cast my vote yet, but I'm at least as suspicious of him as I am Anxiety.

[st.cronin]

If Tyrith is being honest about that role, then I guess there is a chance we might find out tommorrow night then. I'm still not sure how much I buy that though.

I'm a little bit skeptical myself.

[Alan T]

ok guys Im out. got to get up at 4am for a flight tommorrow for work. I'll likely be gone alot of the day, but should be back hopefully around 6-7pm with a few hours before deadline. see you all later

[Barkeep49]

Hoops: I think that tyrtith wasn't a lover but a limited mason. I am fine with still being suspicious of him though.

[Abe Sargent]

Anxiety, going back to your reveal post #1091:


Did you submit trust lists to SirFozzie? I'm trying to understand how you could have intuition based on who you (or the group) trusts if there is not an established trust list?


No submissions. I assumed that SF read the thread, read who I either agreed with or said was clean, and went with that.

On the other hand, like I've said, it could have meant who the "pack" trusted, not who I did.

-Anxiety

[Abe Sargent]

Dola - hit send befoe I typed my last bit. I started publishing trust lists for you guys in order to help out SF.

-Anxiety

[hoopsguy]

So if you were publishing trust lists, then you had to have some kind of an inkling that your "ability" would work in this fashion?

[Barkeep49]

I think this has been an excellent line of questioning hoops. I think Anxiety has just dug himself deeper in a hole.

[Abe Sargent]

So if you were publishing trust lists, then you had to have some kind of an inkling that your "ability" would work in this fashion?


Only for days three and four.

-Anxiety

[Abe Sargent]

For clarification, in other words, I only started posting trust lists for SF after I got the first comment about someone I or we trusted. I only starting posting these lists on Day three, with the cronin vote.

-Anxiety

[hoopsguy]

Post #556 - start of Day 3
Post #913 - start of Day 4

Cronin's published "Trust Lists"?
Day 2/Night 2 - ???
- Post #432: reiterate that Hoopsguy is good suspect, keeping vote there (7:09 PM CST)
- Post #368: cast the vote for Hoopsguy, backing Cronin (1:10 PM CST)

Day 3/Night 3:
Post #886: trust list
<TABLE class=tborder id=post1155795 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 width=175></TD><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_1155795>Okay I just got back and got caught up. I was hoping that we'd see the resolution of the day's vote, but I suspect path is not an antagonist.

In case I get whacked tonight, I want to go ahead and post my cirle, so you'll have that information:

Blade: I think Blade is the safest guy in the game right now.

Lathum: I wonder at Lathum's strategy to back Blade and hoops early when there weren't a lot of votes. Bad strategy, or a clever antagonist ploy?

St. Cronin: He is only one of two people I trusted yesterday, but I may have come to view him in a slightly different light. Still, I am not sure that cronin is an antagonost, and many thing he said during the day seemed pretty solid.

Saldana: I think saldana is safe, but I'd l9ke to see more from him beofre being sure.

Hoopsguy: I get a wolf vibe from hoops.

Outside of that, I still don't know. If I am alive tomorrow, we'll see what happens then.

-Anxiety
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Day 4:
- Post #977: this post seems to fall in line with role reveal, before he publishes it:
<TABLE class=tborder id=post1156402 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 width=175>Jaguars 100 First Fans

Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Ypsilanti, MI
Posts: 3,623



</TD><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_1156402>I just finished catching up for today. Here's why I may jump from cronin to hoopsguy or saldana.

I believe that someone I trust is not what they appear to be. I trusted st. cronin and Blade specifically, and to a degree, saldana and hoops. Blade's dead, I thought it was cronin, now I'm not sure, especailly since his rr, and that leaves me saldana and hoops, who have both rr'd as well. I believe one of these three is lying.

One of the reasons I thought it was cronin was becase of the Day One to Day Three erratic behavior, but now, after his rr, and yesterday several of the things he said, I would be willing to reconsider my belief of his role.

That made me suspicious of hoopsguy, but cronin just cleared him. That leaves one - saldana.

Therefore:

Vote Saldana


-Anxiety

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Post #1029 - moves vote from Saldana to Hoopsguy

[Barkeep49]

Ok hoops I don't get it. What are you so proud about there?

[Barkeep49]

Perhaps proud is an overstatement. What were you going for there?

[hoopsguy]

Um, not too much. At first I was wondering where the trust list was on Day 2, but while I was on my post-hunting mission Anxiety clarified that there was only a posted list on Day 3 (actually Night 3, I believe).

So I'm kind of curious what SirFozzie would have used as the list "trusted not what they seem" for the Night 2 PM, but the rest of the info meshes pretty nicely for Anxiety here.

[Barkeep49]

Anxiety how did you get the idea taht you should have been publishing a trust list? That's the cognitive leap I just don't get.

[st.cronin]

Anxiety how did you get the idea taht you should have been publishing a trust list? That's the cognitive leap I just don't get.

I'm puzzled by that too. If I got a message "somebody you trust is not what they seem," I don't think I'd assume that had anything to do with "circles of trust." I would think it had something to do with a role reveal.

[hoopsguy]

If I believe Anxiety - and I'm closer to doing so than I was two hours ago - then the part of the message that is interesting to me is the "not who/what he appears to be".

Example - Night 3 list, Anxiety is told that someone he doesn't trust is not what they appear to be.

Well, Anxiety said that I had a "wolf vibe", that "Saldana is safe", and that "Blade is safest in game" - so I don't think that Fozzie could use those as people he doesn't trust.

That leaves Lathum and Cronin, although it isn't explicitly stated that he distrusts them either. Cronin's 2nd role reveal, if I'm not mistaken, doesn't occur until the start of Day 4. So that could be "not who they appear to be". Or it could be something with Lathum, whose tactics were examined in the trust list post.

[st.cronin]

If I believe Anxiety - and I'm closer to doing so than I was two hours ago - then the part of the message that is interesting to me is the "not who/what he appears to be".

Example - Night 3 list, Anxiety is told that someone he doesn't trust is not what they appear to be.

Well, Anxiety said that I had a "wolf vibe", that "Saldana is safe", and that "Blade is safest in game" - so I don't think that Fozzie could use those as people he doesn't trust.

That leaves Lathum and Cronin, although it isn't explicitly stated that he distrusts them either. Cronin's 2nd role reveal, if I'm not mistaken, doesn't occur until the start of Day 4. So that could be "not who they appear to be". Or it could be something with Lathum, whose tactics were examined in the trust list post.

Hypothetically speaking, if you believe Anxiety, where does that take us? Lathum?

[Barkeep49]

Well hoops if we are to believe Anxiety you seem like the odd man out on the trust list. And really no one here would really be surprised to find you were wolf or villager.

[hoopsguy]

Anxiety's claims, as far as I can tell, do not have anything to do with Cronin's list. You cannot suggest that Cronin's list was used by SirFozzie since Cronin did not reveal who he had "sniffed" on Friday morning. So if you are saying that I'm "odd man out" I would like an explanation for where you are deriving this.

At this point I'm trying to understand if Anxiety is telling the truth - he has five votes right now and if I cast mine in his direction then he will be holding a majority of the votes. I haven't spent as much time looking at the ramifications of showing Anxiety as a wolf, although if it does result in more pressure on me then I guess so be it.

[st.cronin]

I have a problem with this:

Night 1 – I sensed eyes upon me. I did not know how to interpret this. Seer? Witness? Bodyguard? Reverse Seer? Just SF’s way of amping up the paranoia?

Also, hoops, what do you make of this:

Night 3 (Last night) – Just the opposite. I sensed that someone I did not trust was not who he appeared to be.

[hoopsguy]

I would be interested in hearing what Lathum thinks about Anxiety - he has yet to vote.

In fact, the people who have yet to vote are me, Lathum, Schmidty, and Ardent. Going from my published list earlier, none of those three have been cleared so I would be very interested to hear the perspectives of each of these people on Anxiety.

We have a lot of time left before the voting deadline, but at this moment I would be looking to vote for a different candidate than Anxiety (no, I would not self-vote).

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, on Anxiety's Night 3 stuff I already gave my initial vibe. Either it was referring to you, as you had not given a complete role reveal, or it was referring to Lathum in some way.

Night 2 - I wonder what Fozzie would have used to determine who Anxiety did or did not trust, as there was no trust list published for that evening. Reviewing Barkeep's list of Anxiety posts, the only one that sounds like a defense is of Blade. If he was not what he seems, so what? He was killed at night, so he was part of Team Wolf.

[st.cronin]

Cronin, on Anxiety's Night 3 stuff I already gave my initial vibe. Either it was referring to you, as you had not given a complete role reveal, or it was referring to Lathum in some way.

Night 2 - I wonder what Fozzie would have used to determine who Anxiety did or did not trust, as there was no trust list published for that evening. Reviewing Barkeep's list of Anxiety posts, the only one that sounds like a defense is of Blade. If he was not what he seems, so what? He was killed at night, so he was part of Team Wolf.

Well, since he DIDN'T trust me on day 2, could both items be about me then? I have to say, this seems like a real stretch.

[Lathum]

I was away all weekend and haven't had time to really catch up but I will have time tomrrow evening.

[Lathum]

I am going to hold off on voting, for right now it seems like anxiety is doing a fake role reveal to save his ass. The title doesn't add up and his abilities seem muddled at best, it all seems a little to convienient.

[hoopsguy]

One thing I didn't like about Anxiety's reveal was when Barkeep asked him if there were any clues dropped. As I've asked him questions it looks like there are, but his initial answer was "nope". And I know there is an argument about the semantics of "clues" here, but this part still gnaws at me a little.

[hoopsguy]

Anxiety, Post #694:
I just came back from packing and boy, have things changed.

Look guys, I don't know strategy and what completely yet, but I think it's a bad idea if we reveal all of our roles on the same day, gives the antagonists too many targets. What should I do here?

-Anxiety

This was on Day 3 - Blade and I had completed reveals that day, Cronin had already completed his 1st reveal.

[Blade6119]

Cronin had already completed his 1st reveal.
LOL, this game is too hilarious!! Paging Reporter's Assistant ;)

[Abe Sargent]

Hoops, I didn't intentially leave any, but who knows what may have slipped.

To answer another question, I had outright said that I rolled with cronin and thought Blade was fine before getting the "someone you trust" pm. They were explicit in my posts, so I initially though SF was going for one of these. Then I got the you trust message, and since have posted trust circles for SF to help in case he is using my posts to garner info.

That's basically it.

-Anxiety

[st.cronin]

Hoopsguy, I suspect that one of your worries is that the votes against Anxiety today just piled up too quickly. Keep in mind that he had some pressure on him yesterday, as well. It's entirely possible that the bad guys decided to cut him loose.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, I don't worry about "piled up too quickly" when there is this much time left in the voting. I do start getting second thoughts as the deadline approaches, but that isn't factoring very heavily in my thoughts at the moment.

[st.cronin]

Ok, well let me try this: Prior to Anxiety's reveal, what were your thoughts on him?

And what about the possibility that his role is something like what he has described, but that he is nevertheless an "antagonist"?

[hoopsguy]

Prior to his reveal, I thought he had been very erratic in his play and was having a difficult time understanding his methodology - human or wolf.

As far as being "antagonist" - well, the humans know who the wolves are (not the humans) so I'm not seeing a mirror role to what he is describing being likely here.

[st.cronin]

Prior to his reveal, I thought he had been very erratic in his play and was having a difficult time understanding his methodology - human or wolf.

As far as being "antagonist" - well, the humans know who the wolves are (not the humans) so I'm not seeing a mirror role to what he is describing being likely here.

Perhaps he recieves clues about wolf roles?

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, was just looking at posts from when you started voting for Anxiety - back at post #687. That was at the point where he had just flip-flopped from trusting you to gunning for you.

That was Day 3, after he had gotten the Night 2 message about "trusted not what they seem". So that would explain his erratic behavior.

If he is lying, it was a pretty complex lie. It does a good job of explaining the roller-coaster ride of posts and suspicions he has displayed over the course of the game. I think it would be challenging to plan a fake role reveal that accomplished this.

If he is in fact receiving clues about wolf roles, then that is not a mirror role. That is speculation that goes too far from what is in the thread to be worth investing time on, in my opinion. What I care about discerning, to the best of my ability, is whether he is on my side.

If he is a wolf, then he is probably telling the truth.
If he is an antagonist, then at this point in the game I don't care too much what his role is - I just want to see us devour him and let the other team worry about what role they lost.

[st.cronin]

Well, if I think Anxiety is good, I don't know which way to go. I would probably flip a coin between Schmidty and ardent.

[st.cronin]

dola

I'm not close to convinced that he's on our side, but I've an open mind.

[SirFozzie]

Ok folks, as you know, Ardent unfortunately is stuck with spotty net access for the next couple weeks while he continues to try to find a way to Shake Djibouti, but Sack Attack has graciously agreed to take over the role. Please welcome him graciously.. that means less then five threats on his person, please! :D

[st.cronin]

Well, I'm interested to see what Sack has to say about our predicament.

[Barkeep49]

My guess will be not much.

[saldana]

so just so i have what Anxiety is saying clear...he gets hunches about people, but Fozzie, who is apparently the master of convoluted and complex roles, was just supposed to figure out on his own who Anxiety trusted or distrusted at any given point in the game? he is just supposed to guess at generalized statements instead of telling Anxiety in his role that he must either post a list with several people under the heading "trust" and some under "suspect", or submit one via PM doing the same thing.....that just seems like an awfully crappy mechanic, especially in a came that seems as polished as this one.

i dont buy it at all

[saldana]

Well, I'm interested to see what Sack has to say about our predicament.


great, another evil genius has entered the game, i wonder if hoopsguy will remember to drop to one knee and ask "what is thy bidding my master?" when ever sack enters the thread ?:D

[Barkeep49]

So I am out until late afternoon.

[Lathum]

I will be out most of the afternoon at my nieces field day but I wanted to get my vote in before I go. It just seems to me anxiety is back peddeling. Of course it is possible he is telling the truth but if he is at least we gain information. If we go away to ardent then who do we go for? For now

VOTE ANXIETY

[Lathum]

dola- I meant if we go away from anxiety then do we go for ardent...still waking up :

[hoopsguy]

Question for Barkeep/Coffee/Saldana - you have all indicated that you have a shared role. It appears that there has been some challenge/response in terms of the role PM between Saldana and Barkeep, with Coffee weighing in as well. Coffee and Barkeep have been cleared as non-henchmen by Cronin.

1.) Question to all three - do you believe that there could be another person in this shared role?
2.) Is there anything in your role that refers to your previous pack - or to the idea that other members of your previous pack may be in the village?

For someone playing the role of the wizard, it would be pretty convenient to role reveal as a member of this group. So if you guys are able to both screen each other and against other members then it makes it easier for everyone else to look in other areas for the henchmen.

[Coffee Warlord]

1.) Question to all three - do you believe that there could be another person in this shared role?


Entirely possible, though I kind of doubt it at this point, since noone else has even attempted to chime in.


2.) Is there anything in your role that refers to your previous pack - or to the idea that other members of your previous pack may be in the village?


For me, no. Real simple, real straightforward. As I said before, there was one key phrase mentioned by Saldana that made me immediately believe he's on the side of good. And the rest is history.

[hoopsguy]

Going back to the Day 1 votes again, updating the list to account for Saldana as trusted.

Tyrith - Barkeep (158), Path (160)
Blade - Qwik (161), mckerney (176), cronin (188), Tanglewood (251)
mckerney - Lathum (168)
Tanglewood - Schmidty (209), Hoopsguy (213), Tyrith (234), Saldana (238), Blade (254)
Barkeep - Anxiety (219)
Schmidty - Ardent (290)

No votes: AlanT (out for day), Dubb

[Coffee Warlord]

Anxiety, Ardent, and Lathum all stick out like sore thumbs there.

There's a bad guy in there, though I doubt it's more than 1, MAYBE 2. At least a couple of em would have buried their votes in the top candidates. If your color coding is remotely accurate, however, we're narrowing the list of suspects down rapidly.

[hoopsguy]

In the above post - sorted by leading vote getters:

Tanglewood (5) - Schmidty and Tyrith not cleared
Blade (4) - all cleared or dead
Tyrith (2) - all cleared or dead
mckerney, Barkeep, and Schmidty - one vote each, all still out there

If you assume that we started with three antagonists, do you really think they all left their votes out on their own (well, if Alan T is a bad guy then two of them left their votes on their own)?

I remain pretty confident that there is a member of Team Wizard on the group who voted for Tanglewood. It wasn't Blade, it isn't me, and it appears that both Barkeep and Coffee are vouching for Saldana's partial role reveal.

That leaves Schmidty and Tyrith.

Voting Records:
Schmidty
D1: Tanglewood
D2: Hoopsguy
D3: Path

Tyrith
D1: Tanglewood
D2: mckerney
D3: Anxiety

Reasons to mistrust:
Schmidty - no circle of trust information, defensive playing style (quiet until questioned) makes him hard to read

Tyrith - person who could back his role is dead (based on his role reveal), lack of reads based on this being his 2nd game overall

[hoopsguy]

Coffee, I'm pretty certain the red color-coding is accurate.

I feel like I've taken a long look at Anxiety and, barring new information, I'm not planning to vote for him today.

Interestingly enough, the other two I'm looking at most closely now (Schmidty and Tyrith) are not in the list of three you feel are sticking out. If you have reasons that you are convinced of their wolf character, I would love to hear them.

[st.cronin]

Hoops, are you not planning to vote for Anxiety because you think he's a wolf? Or is there some strategy at work here? I have an open mind - make a case for somebody else, and I'll listen.

[Tyrith]

I think a lot of the erratic behavior you've been seeing out of me is a symptom of me not having played a Werewolf game where I've made more than one post a day before. Especially early on I was unsure as to what I was doing, and it kind of shows. I had no part in blade's night 2 mess. My guess is that the person that deflected the attack was the faction leader, who would presumably be stronger than your average wolf.

[saldana]

1.) Question to all three - do you believe that there could be another person in this shared role?
no,i doubt it based upon what i know about myself.

2.) Is there anything in your role that refers to your previous pack - or to the idea that other members of your previous pack may be in the village?


i am basing my trust upon how it was asked, more than what was asked. i have no doubt that barkeep is a good guy, and if he clears CW, i will support that as well, although i dont have any first hand clearance on coffee (unless i missed something while drunk for 4 days)

[Coffee Warlord]

Interestingly enough, the other two I'm looking at most closely now (Schmidty and Tyrith) are not in the list of three you feel are sticking out. If you have reasons that you are convinced of their wolf character, I would love to hear them.

Not exactly what I meant up there. They DO stick out as lone day 1 votes, nothing more, nothing less. From strictly looking at previous games, usually you'll find a bad guy who pops out a random day 1 vote and vanishes. Avoids piling on an innocent on the first day, and is rarely considered, because there are often good guys who do very much the same.

I have no hard evidence on any of the three, aside from the fact that none of them are really vouched for by anyone. It's the voting strategy I used the last time I was a bad guy (just throw your day 1 vote on someone who doesn't have any and be done with it), hence the reason it might be good to look at now that we're a few days in.

Hope that made at least a shred of sense. :)

[Coffee Warlord]

although i dont have any first hand clearance on coffee (unless i missed something while drunk for 4 days)

No, you wouldn't, and I don't think Barkeep would have either. I picked up on something you said that's pretty much spot on to my role.

[SackAttack]

Well, I'm interested to see what Sack has to say about our predicament.

Sack hasn't followed the game at all, and will need some time to catch up with the thread.

Also, as I told Foz in his recruitment thread, Sack is umpiring two playoff games today, so it will be Tuesday before things kick in in earnest.

But I shall endeavor to be as active as I can today.

[hoopsguy]

Darn it, lost something I posted ...

Cronin, I've been trying to make my case for Schmidty and Tyrith, but I'm hoping that other people can help build on my arguments or else point out areas of weakness with them. Even if you are dead set on voting for Anxiety today I would still like to get feedback from people on these two candidates.

Ardent/Sack - I'm still giving him the benefit of the doubt for not lynching me with the deciding vote on Day 2. But any feelings of gratitude for that are dissipating as we get deeper into the game and he remains isolated from the trust group.

Lathum - I have him and AlanT at about the same level. Not too much trust, but not suspicious enough to be my candidate for today.

In playing risk/reward with the candidates, the level of reward is identical for all of them: chance to identify our enemies, hopefully reduce their numbers. But I think there are varying levels of risk.

Tyrith, based on his role reveal, has the lowest level of risk. If he is telling the truth, it doesn't sound like we are risking losing a key role.

Highest level of risk - we could lynch a seer, a pack leader, or some critical role to our group.

I'm not sure how to determine the levels of risk with the other players in the game, but I am hoping that if tanglewood, mckerney, and particularly path (who was around close to the deadline) had critical roles that they would have given some inkling of those rather than dying with them in a game where there is no role information revealed on death.

This is why I have not 100% accepted that path was not a cunning human, or something along those lines. I had made a big deal during Day 3 that I believed this to be a hidden roles game on death. If a wolf is marked for death, then I hope/expect they will disclose information at the end to help our team carry on the battle without them. Path had a chance to do this and did not.

Obviously, Qwikshot and Blade did not have a similar opportunity, since they were night kills.

[Schmidty]

Schmidty - no circle of trust information, defensive playing style (quiet until questioned) makes him hard to read

I don't have a circle of trust, because I don't completely make up or twist "evidence" to form such a circle.

I'm not going to lie and say that I have the foggiest idea who the humans are, so all I really have to go on is "Who cast suspicion onto me?". It's a crappy strategy, but I'm a crappy WW player. :)

Here's my circle of trust:

Me.

[saldana]

i must have missed something, can someone give me a post number for Tyrith's role reveal?

[Schmidty]

It's so funny how hoops mind-fucks us all whether good or bad every game.

His long, "insightful" posts always subtley herd everyone toward the targets he deems worthy, and you never see hoops having to be defensive. People always give him a free pass.

Just saying.

[saldana]

hoops, i have a hard time going with you on the schmidty campaign, for the large reason that when i was on him on day 2, no one, including you, paid any attention to me....what i perceive right now is you trying to deflect attention from yourself onto everyone else....i see you playing exactly as you did in the star wars game right now...as soon as any flak comes your way, you create a different target and try and make people switch off to your new candidate.

[saldana]

dola, funny how me and schmidty just said exactly the same thing in consecutive posts....maybe there is some truth there.....just maybe....my vote stays on hoops.

[st.cronin]

Ok, let me just say where I'm at.

Anxiety
Schmidty
Ardent/Sack
Tyrith
-----------
Alan T
-----------
Lathum
Saldana
-----------
Hoopsguy
Coffee
Barkeep

Those are my groupings, from most suspicious to least suspicious. In the most suspicious group, I don't see a whole lot to seperate one from the other. I also doubt that all the bad guys are in that group.

Anxiety and Tyrith have both given roles which, quite frankly, seem a little fishy. I am prepared to leave them alone and look at the other two. But I need more convincing, and neither one has posted much at all. They've been about as helpful as McKerney.

[hoopsguy]

Saldana, it would have been a lot easier for me to go the Anxiety path rather than create new targets. He already has a majority of votes. The only time I would create attention defending a guy like this, playing as an antagonist, is during an end game strategy.

Schmidty - I was in a Day 2 runoff (7-6, with final vote going in with one minute left). I consider myself to be a magnet for werewolf conversation more days than not, regardless of what side I'm on. I do not remotely consider myself as someone who escapes notice when people consider their votes. Just saying ;)

[hoopsguy]

Saldana, quite a bit of new information is out since Day 2. And I do think that I was talking about Schmidty as a candidate that day as well before opting for Tyrith - I was using the Day 1 voting as a big part of my rationale at that time as well. But I was forced off of my Tyrith vote in order to try and keep myself alive, at mckerney's expense. I'll pull post numbers on this if this doesn't ring a bell or if you are calling BS on it.

[Schmidty]

Schmidty - I was in a Day 2 runoff (7-6, with final vote going in with one minute left). I consider myself to be a magnet for werewolf conversation more days than not, regardless of what side I'm on. I do not remotely consider myself as someone who escapes notice when people consider their votes. Just saying ;)

But even so, nothing has really come of that, and I still see you herding everyone away from you. That's totally fine, but I just wish people were more aware of the fact.

Here's a question that might make you sound at least a little bit human:

Why should you be trusted and not voted for?

[Alan T]

Checking in real quick. I'm at my corporate headquarters this week, so having to sneak peeks and posts in between when people are looking. I have to do a little less forum reading when actually in the same building as my boss :)

Welcome to the game Sack.

Now catching up on the stuff that I miss, like I have been saying the past few days, my suspect list was: Anxiety, Tyrith and Schmidty. To be honest I don't have much that put one over the others. However, going with Anxiety today has put some heat on him which in my mind sunk him deeper. I do not have any intentions of moving my vote off of him. Perhaps Tyrith or Schmidty need some heat on them to get more information out of them which can help us either give them a pass or sink them.

I honestly don't expect all three of them to be bad guys, but I wouldn't be suprised if as many of 2 of them are bad.

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty, it does make it hard to evaluate your role or your value when you never give us anything to work with. Who do you trust? Yourself. That is cool, but it doesn't give other people much to look at when trying to figure out your M.O.

You don't "make up" evidence - OK, so how do you reach your conclusions on who to vote for if you aren't trying to interpret people's actions? Whimsy at the end of the day? Vote for people who question you? For better or for worse, when I'm playing as a "good guy" I do try to trap the opponent and help my friends with my posts.

It is a little frustrating that as a good guy people can't immediately pick up on it, but I take some responsibility for that as well because I must not be doing a good enough job of putting the bad guys in jeopardy. The guys who are pushing the bad guys hard will, over time, end up as night kills or trusted by the good guys. Oversimplification? Yes, but I personally prefer taking that philosophy to one of sitting back and letting the game dictate to me.

I'll now step off the soapbox and apologize if that came across as overly preachy.

[st.cronin]

But even so, nothing has really come of that, and I still see you herding everyone away from you. That's totally fine, but I just wish people were more aware of the fact.

Here's a question that might make you sound at least a little bit human:

Why should you be trusted and not voted for?

He's actually trying to get people off of ANXIETY today.

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty, I should be trusted because I revealed that I was the bodyguard at the start of Day 3 (after indicating that I had a role late in Day 2). No one has emerged over 4+ days of real-time to contest this claim.

I should also be trusted if you trust Cronin's role reveal, at the very least to not be a henchman. If you believe this, then that fact coupled with the uncontested 'bodyguard' reveal should lead someone to conclude that I'm considerably less likely than the "average" candidate among the remaining elevel players to be a human.

[Alan T]

Schmidty, I should be trusted because I revealed that I was the bodyguard at the start of Day 3 (after indicating that I had a role late in Day 2). No one has emerged over 4+ days of real-time to contest this claim.

I should also be trusted if you trust Cronin's role reveal, at the very least to not be a henchman. If you believe this, then that fact coupled with the uncontested 'bodyguard' reveal should lead someone to conclude that I'm considerably less likely than the "average" candidate among the remaining elevel players to be a human.


I think the first line is the biggest reason why I have trust in hoops at this point. There was a perfect out for someone to try to come and say they were the bodyguard with the Blade event from night 2. The fact that no one has challenged hoops on this is the only thing keeping him off of my distrust lists. I havent really found it pleasing that hoops keeps defending the people on my high-distrust list (Such as Anxiety and Tyrith), but I have to feel if he was bad, SOMEONE would have challenged him as bodyguard by now.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I would ask that you re-read my posts on Tyrith - I don't think that I've been defending him in the least. My vote was camped on him during Day 2 until the end where I had to pull it back. I moved away from him on Day 3 when I believed that Blade/Tyrith were brothers/lovers. I've continued to question why he is still alive when his partner is dead today.

In fact, at this point I'll put my vote out there and see if anything comes of it over the next 8.5 hours. Right now it is a wasted vote, but I believe it is a better vote than Anxiety and I know it is a better vote than me.

VOTE TYRITH

[Schmidty]

Schmidty, I should be trusted because I revealed that I was the bodyguard at the start of Day 3 (after indicating that I had a role late in Day 2). No one has emerged over 4+ days of real-time to contest this claim.

I should also be trusted if you trust Cronin's role reveal, at the very least to not be a henchman. If you believe this, then that fact coupled with the uncontested 'bodyguard' reveal should lead someone to conclude that I'm considerably less likely than the "average" candidate among the remaining elevel players to be a human.

Fine. I'll trust you then, GOSH!!

[SirFozzie]

Funny Schmidty, you don't look like Napoleon Dynamite!

[Schmidty]

Funny Schmidty, you don't look like Napoleon Dynamite!

No, but if you look at ND upside down, my peepee does.

[Schmidty]

Please disregard the above post. I don't want anyone getting turned on.

[SirFozzie]

VOTE SCHMIDTY

[SirFozzie]

Wait a second, I RUN this game, I'm not playing in it!

UNVOTE SCHMIDTY

Neeever mind!

[hoopsguy]

I think I have to get around to seeing Napoleon Dynamite at some point ...

[Alan T]

I was wondering what the current vote count was, so went back to look them up.

This is what I have currently:

(6) Anxiety - Cronin (922), Alan T (998), Tyrith (1002), Barkeep (1081), Coffee (1085), Lathum (1207)
(2) Hoops - Saldana (1022), Anxiety (1029)
(1) Tyrith - Hoopsguy (1236)

That leaves uhh.. SackAttack and Schmidty as the only two outstanding votes.

So looks like unless people move off of Anxiety for some reason, he's the lynch candidate tonight.

My question now would be lets follow this out from here.

If Anxiety is bad, what are our next steps?
- Is Schmidty someone we should look heavier at? Despite not being on any trust lists, he still seems to be waiting till the last minute to vote, perhaps waiting to see if there is a way to save Anxiety?
- Do we look at hoops closer for trying to move people off of Anxiety?

If Anxiety is good what are our next steps?
- Do we look more at Tyrith now? Ie: Why is he still around?

Other thoughts?

[st.cronin]

I am tempted to move my vote on Tyrith, just to see what happens. I think it's very possible that either Tyrith or Anxiety is bad, and I also think it's likely one of the non-voters is bad.

[SackAttack]

I was wondering what the current vote count was, so went back to look them up.

This is what I have currently:

(6) Anxiety - Cronin (922), Alan T (998), Tyrith (1002), Barkeep (1081), Coffee (1085), Lathum (1207)
(2) Hoops - Saldana (1022), Anxiety (1029)
(1) Tyrith - Hoopsguy (1236)

That leaves uhh.. SackAttack and Schmidty as the only two outstanding votes.

So looks like unless people move off of Anxiety for some reason, he's the lynch candidate tonight.

My question now would be lets follow this out from here.

If Anxiety is bad, what are our next steps?
- Is Schmidty someone we should look heavier at? Despite not being on any trust lists, he still seems to be waiting till the last minute to vote, perhaps waiting to see if there is a way to save Anxiety?
- Do we look at hoops closer for trying to move people off of Anxiety?

If Anxiety is good what are our next steps?
- Do we look more at Tyrith now? Ie: Why is he still around?

Other thoughts?

After reading 25 pages, I think I have as much information now as I did before taking over for ardent. Eesh.

My first instinct would be Anxiety. On the other hand, I remember the Sith game well. Hoops was frequently under fire, and yet never really drew as much heat as he should have until basically the end of the game. He's one of those guys that everybody keeps being suspicious of, but his posts are always just carefully constructed enough that he never actually gets lynched.

I've seen in the past where he's able to subtly deflect attention from him to someone else, and in every instance I've seen, it's been to a villager.

Without getting into the whole "preconceived notions" bit, I'll just say that based on the level of respect I have for his ability to play, hoops scares me. He could be straight-up legit, or a human in disguise here, and I'm not sure I'd ever be certain which it is until he's either nuked by the humans or lynched by us wolves.

I can't do anything about the former, but I can

vote hoopsguy.

[Alan T]

I am tempted to move my vote on Tyrith, just to see what happens. I think it's very possible that either Tyrith or Anxiety is bad, and I also think it's likely one of the non-voters is bad.

I'm not sure what that would accomplish other than putting hoops into more danger. It would be 5-3-2 at that point, meaning 1 flip away from a tie between Anxiety and Hoops.

While I would be less caring if the vote went from Anxiety to Tyrith, I'm not sure I would want to lose hoops instead of the other two here. From what it sounds like there is a core group of 4-6 of us who feel strongly about both Anxiety and Tyrith right now. Not sure we want to split that voting group into half right now

[hoopsguy]

E tu, Sith Master?

If enough people don't trust my defense in Post #1234 then we'll collectively make a mistake again today.

I really don't think I'm all that cryptic as a good guy, but it is obvious that I'm in the minority opinion on this.

[Coffee Warlord]

E tu, Sith Master?

If enough people don't trust my defense in Post #1234 then we'll collectively make a mistake again today.

I really don't think I'm all that cryptic as a good guy, but it is obvious that I'm in the minority opinion on this.

Assuming you're telling the truth, which, at this point, I think you are.

You're a bodyguard in a Fozzie game. You were fucked from the moment you signed up. :)

[st.cronin]

I'm not sure what that would accomplish other than putting hoops into more danger. It would be 5-3-2 at that point, meaning 1 flip away from a tie between Anxiety and Hoops.

While I would be less caring if the vote went from Anxiety to Tyrith, I'm not sure I would want to lose hoops instead of the other two here. From what it sounds like there is a core group of 4-6 of us who feel strongly about both Anxiety and Tyrith right now. Not sure we want to split that voting group into half right now

With Sack voting the way he did, I agree. His vote makes me think we may be looking at Anxiety-Tyrith-Sack as our bad guys.