WW Amazing Race - Game Over (Moles Win & Team Reebok Wins)

[Danny]

As of post 210:

mauboy1 4 - PackerFanatic (169), bhlloy (181), MartinD (185), mckerney (187)
Chief Rum 4 - Lathum (170), mauboy1 (171), Zinto (205), ntndeacon (206)
ntndeacon 3 - Danny (193), The Jackal (194), hoopsguy (200)
JAG 1 - Autumn (164)
Autumn - JAG (178)

First 4 voters on Mau. Notice bhlloy being the second vote. I think there is no way the wolves vote #2 and #3 on mau and would lean strongly towards believing bh and the GoldenEagle scan. I also would add some trust to packerFanatic and Mckerney

[Danny]

bhllloy is not Mau's teammate, I am. His votes adds trust for the reasons I just stated

[Autumn]

Autumn votes JAG
PF votes mauboy
lathum votes chief
mauboy votes chief (2)
danny votes jag (2)
jag votes autumn
bhlloy votes mauboy (2)
martin d votes mauboy (3)
chief rum votes mauboy (4)
mckerney votes mauboy (5)
chief unvotes mauboy (4)
danny unvotes jag
danny votes ntndeacon
jackal votes ntndeacon (2)
hoopsguy votes ntndeacon (3)
zinto votes chief rum (3)
ntndeacon votes chief (4)
pass votes ntn (4)
chief votes ntn (5)
CrimsonFox votes mauboy (5)
ntn unvotes chief (3)
ntn votes mauboy (6)
darth votes mauboy (7)
cougar votes mauboy (8)
mauboy unvotes chief (2)
mauboy votes ntn (6)
golden eagle votes ntn (7)
saldana votes ntn (8)
lathum unvotes chief (1)
lathum votes ntn (8)
chief unvotes ntn (7)
chief votes mauboy (9)
autumn unvotes jag (0)
autumn votes mauboy (10)
ntn unvotes mau (9)
ntn votes jag (1)
danny unvote ntn (6)
danny votes CF
mau unvotes ntn (5)
mau votes crimson
chief unvotes mau
chief votes jag
autumn unvotes mauboy1
autumn votes JAG

Sorry, again I know this may not be complete, but I wanted to throw in the info we had here and look at these streaks. I think the late voting is less useful after Saldana's reveal.

I've put Lathum and Saldana in a light green to show they're presumed villagers.

[Danny]

I think Mau's second vote also adds some trust to CR. Right now there was one wolf on CR, one on Mau. Looking at the 4 other voters on the other three candidates seems a good place to potentially find at least one wolf. Unfortunately that includes me. Also includes Autumn, JAG, and Hoopsguy.

[Autumn]

bhllloy is not Mau's teammate, I am. His votes adds trust for the reasons I just stated

Oh right. My pre-coffee bad. I'll go get some.

[Danny]

And thats not the final tally. Looking at the final tally will probably be a better place to look. It should be noted that Ntn and Mau tried not to vote eachother on day 1.

[Autumn]

I think Mau's second vote also adds some trust to CR. Right now there was one wolf on CR, one on Mau. Looking at the 4 other voters on the other three candidates seems a good place to potentially find at least one wolf. Unfortunately that includes me. Also includes Autumn, JAG, and Hoopsguy.

What makes you think all the wolves would have voted that early?

[Autumn]

chief votes ntn (5)
CrimsonFox votes mauboy (5)
ntn unvotes chief (3)
ntn votes mauboy (6)
darth votes mauboy (7)
cougar votes mauboy (8)
mauboy unvotes chief (2)
mauboy votes ntn (6)
golden eagle votes ntn (7)
saldana votes ntn (8)
lathum unvotes chief (1)
lathum votes ntn (9)
chief unvotes ntn (8)
chief votes mauboy (9)
autumn unvotes jag (0)
autumn votes mauboy (10)

So here's an interesting stretch. My vote at the end is about when Mauboy revealed, just before that. The beginning of this stretch is the point at which it was 4-4-4 Chief-Mauboy-NTN.

I haven't actually looked at it yet, but think it should be interesting to see what people did there.

[Autumn]

At 4-4-4, Chief chooses NTN over Mauboy. CF chooses Mauboy over Chief. NTN jumps on the Mauboy wagon, Darth and Cougar follow, choosing to put Mauboy further ahead rather than vote NTN. At that point it's Mauboy 8 - NTN 5 - Chief 3

Mauboy switches to NTN and starts a run there. GE, Saldana and Lathum makes it NTN - 9 -Mauboy 8.

Chief makes a decisive move there moving from NTN to Mauboy. This is the move that makes me question him, Danny, despite an earlier vote on Mauboy. I'm not sure if Mauboy revealed before or after that vote, I know he revealed before mine.

[Autumn]

God, this coffee has not helped yet. Obviously Chief switched TO Mauboy, so that is not the questionable vote. I'll just let other people look at it. :-(

[Autumn]

Cougar has a very good looking vote in that stretch, putting Mauboy up by 3 instead of closing the gap by voting NTN.

[Danny]

What makes you think all the wolves would have voted that early?

I said looking at a final result would better, but didn't see one already tabulated and didn't have time to do one myself. This is my last post before leaving, hopefully others who are around can go through day 1 in more detail to come up with a couple good candidates.

[Autumn]

mckerney votes mauboy (5)
chief unvotes mauboy (4)
danny unvotes jag
danny votes ntndeacon
jackal votes ntndeacon (2)
hoopsguy votes ntndeacon (3)
zinto votes chief rum (3)
ntndeacon votes chief (4)
pass votes ntn (4)

Here's another stretch to look at. McKerney puts Mauboy at 5 making him the only real contender at that moment. Let's see who gets put in as candidates after that and by whom.

As I said, Chief unvotes, which makes me wonder. Danny switches to NTN (what was the reasoning there, Danny?). Jackal, Hoops and then Pass all jump onto a brand new NTN wagon. Zinto adds Chief into the mix, and NTN jumps on that rather than on Mauboy.

[GoldenEagle]

I think its safe to conclude that there is a wolf somewhere in that voting pattern. I think the three logical candidates for today are hoops, pass, and ntn.

Of those three, who would give us the most info? If ntn turns out to be a wolf, it clears pass. Otherwise, pass looks mighty suspicious since he was attempting to swing the vote off of mau.

I am leaning toward voting for ntn today.

[JAG]

First 4 voters on Mau. Notice bhlloy being the second vote. I think there is no way the wolves vote #2 and #3 on mau and would lean strongly towards believing bh and the GoldenEagle scan. I also would add some trust to packerFanatic and Mckerney

I'm not sure I can fully get behind this. To some degree, I wonder if this whole thing with Mau was a designed play by the wolves to try and draw out the seer. Seen in that light, the wolves would have a doubly vested interest in voting Mau early: 1. Make sure he is a candidate so he can make the play he did. 2. Look good when it eventually comes out that Mau is a wolf.

I will say that I can't see bhlloy as cunning making that play though, so that makes me feel a lot better about him and good about GE barring him being the cunning (low odds, but just not fully discounting things at this point.

[Coffee Warlord]

God, this coffee has not helped yet.

Personally, I think you all should vote autumn for this heretical comment alone.

[GoldenEagle]

Personally, I think you all should vote autumn for this heretical comment alone.

Haha. I could just see CW writing a script that informs him anytime the word coffee is posted in a thread.

[Autumn]

I'm assuming he did ;-)

[Passacaglia]

I'm not sure I can fully get behind this. To some degree, I wonder if this whole thing with Mau was a designed play by the wolves to try and draw out the seer. Seen in that light, the wolves would have a doubly vested interest in voting Mau early: 1. Make sure he is a candidate so he can make the play he did. 2. Look good when it eventually comes out that Mau is a wolf.

I will say that I can't see bhlloy as cunning making that play though, so that makes me feel a lot better about him and good about GE barring him being the cunning (low odds, but just not fully discounting things at this point.

I agree with this, and thought about pointing it out to you in your earlier post, but since you seemed to discredit that theory, I didn't bother. But personally, my thinking is that if bhlloy is the cunning, they wouldn't have killed the seer.

[Autumn]

FWIW, CW, the coffee has now activated my brain.

[PackerFanatic]

Looking at the voting from day 1, I think ntn is our best bet today.

VOTE NTNDEACON

[EagleFan]

As of post 1021:

ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1021)


I guess I may need to start tracking that again today, I was liking the easy vote counting of the first three days... :)

[EagleFan]

Haha. I could just see CW writing a script that informs him anytime the word coffee is posted in a thread.

I'm assuming he did ;-)

Seriously... his coffee senses were tingling...

[PackerFanatic]

As of post 1021:

ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1021)


I guess I may need to start tracking that again today, I was liking the easy vote counting of the first three days... :)

All you need to do is tell us who another wolf is and we will make it really easy for you!

[PackerFanatic]

Man, Pair of Amazing Nuts have really fallen behind...time to pick up the pace and take over this game!

[Zinto]

The thing I am noticing as I go back and read day one is that Mau really did not want to vote Chief the first day. He also later pretended to scan Chief. While I am not all the way done reading I am just pointing out this is something to look at.

Also after seeing how well Chief did in the last game he could have been trying to cast doubt on him so that if/when Mau got found to be a wolf he could maybe bring Chief down with him.

[Autumn]

Yeah, Zinto, I'm not sure what to think on that whole thing. It seemed that Mauboy expected his fake to work better than it did, so I don't know if he "scanned" Chief hoping to hide a wolf, or hoping to trick us once he was lynched.

[Zinto]

The only other thing that really really caught my attention was that even though Mau claimed a role I am not sure why NTN removed his vote off of Mau to Jag. Jag did not have any other votes on him at that point and it does not make a lot of sense to get out of the self preservation mode.

[hoopsguy]

Work has involved lots of customer face time today, which is keeping me away from doing the vote diving I wanted to get to earlier. May still have time later in the day, but it likely won't be before 6PM EST.

Which sucks, because I'm pretty sure there is good info to be found in there. I'm inclined to agree with the point Autumn made about voters 1/2/4 on Mauboy being good ... no reason to push him into the "runoff" that early in the process, and I'm puzzled by MartinD doing so with his vote.

[Autumn]

I have to assume they just felt like it would pay off down the road to lay down some early wolf on wolf votes. And it does pay off in the sense that it makes it harder to analyze any of these votes, knowing they may have been voting each ohter on purpose early.

I believe we've had two vanilla wolves, right? So chances are we're left with the cunning and the brutal, if we have only four. I know Saldana came down hard on there being only four wolves, but five seems in the realm of possibility, I'm not sure. Maybe not if there is a brutal and cunning in game.

[Danny]

Work has involved lots of customer face time today, which is keeping me away from doing the vote diving I wanted to get to earlier. May still have time later in the day, but it likely won't be before 6PM EST.

Which sucks, because I'm pretty sure there is good info to be found in there. I'm inclined to agree with the point Autumn made about voters 1/2/4 on Mauboy being good ... no reason to push him into the "runoff" that early in the process, and I'm puzzled by MartinD doing so with his vote.

That was me, not autumn :p.

Also on autumns questions, I switched to ntn because I decided I'd rather vote someone who is quieter over someone who has been very active in jag on day 1 with little to go on.

Btw, pass is playing pretty mellow this game and he tends to be a bit more out there as a wolf. He also from what I remember looked to help save mau. For right now I'm going to put my vote there

Vote pass

I can't bold from phone right now but hopefully this will count for now, I can always fix it later.

[Danny]

vote pass

Got it to work I think

[Passacaglia]

Danny, can you clarify that for me? It sounds like you're arguing that I'm probably a villager (since I'm mellow this game, and tend to be more out there as a wolf), then voting for me.

[Danny]

vote pass

Got it to work I think

[Danny]

I think you are more out there as a villager actually. Plus your vote of ntn and avoidance of mau makes the two of you a solid run off pair. My votes not stuck though

[Passacaglia]

I think you are more out there as a villager actually. Plus your vote of ntn and avoidance of mau makes the two of you a solid run off pair. My votes not stuck though

Really? I think anyone who has seen me play as a wolf would say that you were right the first time. I'm not sure I like the idea of NTN and I as a pair since GE has already tried to say that I look bad if NTN is good, so this is seeming like too much of a setup based on a D1 vote. If you want to run me off with someone else though, that's fine.

[Autumn]

Wow, four straight votes for Mauboy.

Okay, reading back through day. Let's keep in mind that the three votes on Mauboy that followed bhlloy's all happened within 3 minutes. It's very possible none of thsoe three, wolf or not, realized that any of the others were posting. Thus Mauboy went from 2 votes to 5 in the space of three minutes. Martin was one of those votes, Chief and McKerney the others. That makes those other two not quite as golden as they might have been otherwise, since it may have just been a lack of wolf communication. Chief unvoted once he realized what had happened, which may have just been a wise villager move, or a wolf backing off from what had seemed a safe wolf on wolf vote.

[Autumn]

Really? I think anyone who has seen me play as a wolf would say that you were right the first time. I'm not sure I like the idea of NTN and I as a pair since GE has already tried to say that I look bad if NTN is good, so this is seeming like too much of a setup based on a D1 vote. If you want to run me off with someone else though, that's fine.

I agree with Danny, in that I've been looking at you wondering why Pass is playing so quiet.

[Passacaglia]

Yeah, I do tend to be quiet when I can tell the vote is going to be boring. The only interesting vote was Day 1, and I was out then. Granted, that day was so weird that I don't know if I would have stuck my nose in there even if I was around, and I'm still not really able to make much out of it.

[mauchow]

As everyone tries to prepare for the next leg you hear evil laughter...

I wonder what this was all about. It seemed random..

[Passacaglia]

So if I'm going to whine about getting votes, and about being paired off with ntn, I might as well throw out a name. This guy voted for mau twice, and unvoted him twice. That gives me a hunch that he was trying to make it look like there were runs to save ntn, and get more people to vote his way.

[Passacaglia]

VOTE CHIEF RUM

[Passacaglia]

I think its safe to conclude that there is a wolf somewhere in that voting pattern. I think the three logical candidates for today are hoops, pass, and ntn.

Of those three, who would give us the most info? If ntn turns out to be a wolf, it clears pass. Otherwise, pass looks mighty suspicious since he was attempting to swing the vote off of mau.

I am leaning toward voting for ntn today.

Since I just my suspicion of GE trying to set me up, I'll quote it here. Looking at his post, I see that his voting pattern looks exactly the same as mine -- a vote for NTN without swtiching it off. This pretty much ties him with CR in my book, and if anyone votes for GE before anyone follows me on CR, I'll switch.

[Autumn]

I just read through most of day 1's history. FWIW, Pass's vote didn't strike me as necessarily suspicious. It seemed like one most villagers would make at that point possibly. It's proving hard to decipher things with all these runs of simultaneous votes though.

[mckerney]

Since I just my suspicion of GE trying to set me up, I'll quote it here. Looking at his post, I see that his voting pattern looks exactly the same as mine -- a vote for NTN without swtiching it off. This pretty much ties him with CR in my book, and if anyone votes for GE before anyone follows me on CR, I'll switch.

Vote Golden Eagle

[Danny]

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt until I am home and can look at things better
unvote pass

[Danny]

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt until I am home and can look at things better
unvote pass

[Danny]

Please don't vote GE, much better candidates due to him likely being scanned good.

[JAG]

Vote Golden Eagle

I don't think that's a good percentage play, you're basically banking on GE being the cunning or even more unlikely possibilities.

[Passacaglia]

Please don't vote GE, much better candidates due to him likely being scanned good.

Thanks, I'd forgotten about that. Do we know if there is a cunning wolf in this game?

[Passacaglia]

Looks like there definitely can be. Sorry for lying mckerney, but I am going to hang on to my CR vote for a while and see how that goes.

[Passacaglia]

FYI, this is why I hate the cunning wolf role. It totally devalues the seer. It really doesn't help to know that he's not Wolf X or Wolf Y, oh but he still could be Wolf Z.

[Danny]

There is, but no reason to make that vote at this point.

[Lathum]

Today is super busy for me and I don't have much to go on. Going to try and check out things a bit later but may not be able to.

I also think I am likely dead tonight with the seer now being gone.

[Lathum]

I have to keep asking myself why kill DV?

Did he give something away in his posts? Is his partner lying about something?

DV is a good player, but I find it hard to think it was a coincidence they got the seer so easily.

VOTE Bholly

[Lathum]

vote bholly

[Autumn]

Could be, Lathum. But in looking back through Darth's votes I thought he did drop a few hints that might have put the wolves on his trail.

That said, even if Bhlloy is a villager, finding out for sure does clear things up for us, so it's not a bad vote.

I can't figure out where to go, I haven't found anything to rest my vote on, and I have to go very soon. grrr.

[Autumn]

In the same category of people casting votes Day 1, once Mauboy looked to be the lead vote getter, for other targets we have Hoopsguy, Danny, Zinto, NTN, Pass, Chief. This is one spot in the day's votes where I would expect to see a wolf try to push another canddiate. Some of these guys have moves elsewhere that makes them look a bit better (Danny, NTN, Chief). So I think I may choose from Hoops, Zinto or Pass.

[bhlloy]

I'm back around. Somebody already said but Mauboy isn't my teammate. My vote for him on Day 1 was purely because of his bizarre couple of posts and I didn't take it off because I wasn't around after the MartinD reveal.

I'll probably head to bed in a bit because I'm jetlagged as hell, I don't really know who to vote for either. I'd still like to hear a better explanation from Danny why he voted with Mauboy for CF (who ended up the first NK the next evening) on day 1 other than "he was just someone who was in the thread at the time". That doesn't really fly for me. But I don't think he's a wolf either, it's just something that seems strange.

[Autumn]

Yes, I also don't understand your switch off of NTN after Mauboy's reveal, Danny.

[Autumn]

I'm going to vote Zinto. Mostly because he's on that list, and is quiet enough and new enough that he could continue slipping under the radar. Better to put a fire under him now. I'll be out for a while unfortunately, hopefully back before deadline.

<b>VOTE ZINTO</b>

[Chief Rum]

So if I'm going to whine about getting votes, and about being paired off with ntn, I might as well throw out a name. This guy voted for mau twice, and unvoted him twice. That gives me a hunch that he was trying to make it look like there were runs to save ntn, and get more people to vote his way.

Hmm, maybe you should take a closer look at what was happening there.

I voted mau because of his following up with a second vote so quick (I forget who he voted, probably ntn). If you recall, he claimed he was preparing his vote post and then got interrupted at work and couldn't post his vote fro 45 minutes. By the time he did, it was right after someone else had voted the same guy. So it looked like a quick follow vote. It was Day One after all, not much is needed to put a guy on the block.

In any case, I started a vote post of my own. There was maybe one vote on mau at the time. By the time I finished my post, there was another mau vote, and then someone followed me with a mau vote. That was in a very quick stretch. I decided I didn't like that, and that's why I unvoted mau.

I later voted for ntn in a self-defense move; it was me, mau and ntn on the block at the time, and I was still skittish about voting mau, given the way that run had developed. ntn also had his vote on me. He and I agreed to take our votes off of one another because we both felt there were better candidates. At this point I went back to mauboy1, still in self-defense mode.

I stayed on mauboy1 until he did the seer hint-reveal. That was getting closer to when I was leaving for the day, and I wasn't going to leave my vote on the potential seer. So I unvoted mau and went to JAG, one of the few others with a vote, avoiding ntn because I had already told him I wouldn't vote for him that day. At the time it was looking like an ntn-mau head to head, and people were starting to jump off of mau with his "reveal".

I left for the day at that point (or at least until past deadline), and so I wasn't around for the MartinD stuff.

It was a Day One vote, and crazier than normal, with all the weird runs. I was prepared to lynch mau on Day One and would have if he didn't do the fake reveal.

[CrimsonFox]

I have to keep asking myself why kill DV?

Did he give something away in his posts? Is his partner lying about something?

DV is a good player, but I find it hard to think it was a coincidence they got the seer so easily.

VOTE Bholly

I'm going with Seer searching as a reason. Back on Day 2 when everyone was jumping on the "kill jackal" bandwagon and some were even saying "Oh wow Mau is the seer, we should not vote him then", DV and I both expressed our doubts aloud, the post Autumn posted from me included.

HEre are the posts specifically from DV.
Post 306 Day 1

Exactly Danny

1) If he's lying the real seer would automatically know
2) You're unvoting him because he might be the seer but you hope the real seer scans him tonight? How can you possibly explain that reasoning?

then 310
322
well I'm not sure about mauboy yet but it's better safe then sorry.

Unvote Mauboy

Vote MartinD

And after I posted my doubts about mau as seer at #456,
DV chimed in at 469

I don't like Mauboy's reveal to be honest. It just doesn't sit with me. If he was goin to hint instead of coming right out with it his hint wouldn't have been so blatant


At first I thought it was just revenge or to keep me quiet, but now I think there might have been some suspicion from the wolves that one of us two was the seer since we were both saying Mau sounds like a fake. I think it's in our best interest to AT LEAST FOR TODAY assume the bholly/GE scans are legitimate. It's the only thing we have to go on today other than saldana's innocence by day 1 wolf kill.

[EagleFan]

As teams struggle to plan for their next leg you notice that Lathum is now wearing a T-shirt for a rival reality show.

He has now been "killed" from the werewolf portion of the game. He may continue to post and play until his team is eliminated from the race (if they are eliminated).

Lathum was your bodyguard.

[EagleFan]

An even louder evil laughter is heard...

laugh..LAUGH LAUGH... cough

"sorry, but we enjoyed that"

[PackerFanatic]

Oh snap...a day kill for the wolves?

[EagleFan]

As of post 1066:

ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1021)
Chief Rum 1 - Passacaglia (1042)
GoldenEagle 1 - mckerney (1045)
bhlloy 1 - Lathum (1056)
Zinto 1 - Autumn (1061)

[hoopsguy]

Well, I guess at the start of the game I would have taken 2 wolves for the seer + bodyguard, but still tough to lose both of those roles this early in the game.

I don't see any wolf roles that should have been able to do this ... hidden role, some kind of reward for a race, anyone have thoughts on this?

[Danny]

Yes, I also don't understand your switch off of NTN after Mauboy's reveal, Danny.

I guess what was going through my mind was trying to save my teammate and the potential seer and it not looking like ntn was going to get enough support. I stand by my decision to try and save mau, but my reasoning for picking crimsonfox was weak so I agree with you guys there.

[GoldenEagle]

A day kill for the wolves?

I think this rules out bholly for a vote. The wolves are trying to frame Lathum. I think we should make sure Lathum's team stays in the race as he can provide us with a trusted opinion.

[PackerFanatic]

At this stage of the game, having 5 votes on 5 different people is certainly not helping things, so if ntn doesn't get more of a push, I will gladly move my vote (probably to bhlloy at this point, based on what Lathum said earlier)

I haven't played in as many games as others, but I don't recall ever seeing something like this.

[Zinto]

I'm going to vote Zinto. Mostly because he's on that list, and is quiet enough and new enough that he could continue slipping under the radar. Better to put a fire under him now. I'll be out for a while unfortunately, hopefully back before deadline.

VOTE ZINTO

I can not disagree with you on any of the points you are making Autumn because I am new and quiet but I do believe there has to be someone better to lynch than me. However I am willing to bite the bullet today if the group comes to the consensus that we will learn the most by lynching me.

[PackerFanatic]

Frame Lathum for what, GE?

[EagleFan]

Lathum's vote that he cast still counts towards the lynch.

[Zinto]

I agree that we should lay off bhlloy today because it seems like this is a move to draw interest on to him.

[JAG]

Well that sucks. I don't remember reading any role info that could do that.

[CrimsonFox]

WTF! a 1:10 PM kill? WTF!

[JAG]

Well, I guess at the start of the game I would have taken 2 wolves for the seer + bodyguard, but still tough to lose both of those roles this early in the game.

I don't see any wolf roles that should have been able to do this ... hidden role, some kind of reward for a race, anyone have thoughts on this?

I can confirm (and mckerney can back me up on this) that we didn't get any special message / reward for being in first at the end of the D2 segment. I presume the same was true for you and CR? (and Lathum/Jackal can chime in for D1). So I don't think it's race-related unless it's wolf-only and that would seem unbalancing. That doesn't leave me with much since I don't remember reading about hidden roles or abilities this game.

[bhlloy]

Just throwing it out there... if this was a reward for winning a race then that's a pretty short list of candidates...

This is what EF has put up there, which lends credibility to that theory (for me at least

9) Lathum - Promotion Specialist (day four "unblockable" unlocked bonus)

Leg 1 was two confirmed villagers (Jackal and Lathum)
Leg 2 was JAG and McKerney, who are two guys I haven't seen a lot of discussion on
Leg 3 is CR and hoopsguy

Anybody see anything interesting in there?

[bhlloy]

good points JAG - but I don't see any reason it couldn't be a wolf only unlockable. It's either that or it's a wolf hidden role, doesn't seem like one is more unbalancing than the other.

[CrimsonFox]

Well out of the remaining players no one has been cleared absolutely but several people I think are mostly cleared and therefore I trust.

trust through actions: Saldana
trust through "scan" story: Bhlloy, GoldenEagle - I believe this. NO reason to doubt it at this point.
trust through posts and talk: Autumn - I think he's done the most at trying to accuse wolves as wolves and villagers as villagers

Getting weirdness from:
Danny - nothing he's said this game really makes any sense and his actions have been questionable. With the exception that today he said "Don't vote GE". THAT makes sense and feels villagery.
hoops - he's still here.

Not getting a lot of negative vibes from others altho there are a LOT of quiet people, some who are new (cougarfreak), some who are old (JAG, CR, ntn) and just general chiming in of safe one-liners. Safe one-liners that seem forced are often wolfy tho.

[JAG]

Just throwing it out there... if this was a reward for winning a race then that's a pretty short list of candidates...

This is what EF has put up there, which lends credibility to that theory (for me at least

9) Lathum - Promotion Specialist (day four "unblockable" unlocked bonus)

Leg 1 was two confirmed villagers (Jackal and Lathum)
Leg 2 was JAG and McKerney, who are two guys I haven't seen a lot of discussion on
Leg 3 is CR and hoopsguy

Anybody see anything interesting in there?

That's interesting, I hadn't seen that bonus listed by his name. Only other thing I can think of is his unlocked bonus was somehow related to his blocking an NK. Hopefully Lathum can fill us in.

[GoldenEagle]

Frame Lathum for what, GE?

Sorry. They are trying to frame bholly as a wolf.

[bhlloy]

Yeah that might make more sense with the phrase "unblockable" thinking about it. Would explain why the wolves weren't stressed about getting rid of Lathum day 2 like we were all expecting them to do.

[Chief Rum]

Not getting a lot of negative vibes from others altho there are a LOT of quiet people, some who are new (cougarfreak), some who are old (JAG, CR, ntn) and just general chiming in of safe one-liners. Safe one-liners that seem forced are often wolfy tho.

I wouldn't describe me as quiet. I have 33 posts in the thread (around 7th in the game), which is actually more than you. ;)

[CrimsonFox]

Maybe I'm just used to you having more :) I hadn't really noticed you were talking much, at least these last couple days.

[Chief Rum]

Maybe I'm just used to you having more :) I hadn't really noticed you were talking much, at least these last couple days.

That might be it. I have been busier at work. I think I did a lot more talking on Thursday and Friday.

[CrimsonFox]

ntn also had his vote on me. He and I agreed to take our votes off of one another because we both felt there were better candidates. At this point I went back to mauboy1, still in self-defense mode.


As I recall that wasn't the reason. It seemed more of a "You save me, and I'll save you " from ntn and then later when ntn was in trouble and you were not, you saved him because he saved you. At least that's what you said. Not because there were better candidates.

[JAG]

That might be it. I have been busier at work. I think I did a lot more talking on Thursday and Friday.

I assumed the general quietness was more busy-related for more of the usually talkative folks. I know it's the case for me at least. I still need a thorough look at D1 and haven't been able to yet, and unsure when I will be able.

[ntndeacon]

The only other thing that really really caught my attention was that even though Mau claimed a role I am not sure why NTN removed his vote off of Mau to Jag. Jag did not have any other votes on him at that point and it does not make a lot of sense to get out of the self preservation mode.

well there were two things that went into that desicion. First off, I removed my vote for mau for the obvious reason. a supposed seer call out on day one, I was sure gonna not be the cause of their removal, especially at my lack of a role. As for why to move to JAG, well that was a misunderstanding on my part. I thought JAG still had a vote.

[GoldenEagle]

VOTE NTNDEACON

I think this vote gives us the most information. 50/50 shot at nailing a wolf.

[bhlloy]

Alright, I'm heading out for the night. Unless anybody has a better option I'm going to go with Zinto by default as I don't see anybody else with votes that I remotely like as a wolf

Vote Zinto

[Chief Rum]

As I recall that wasn't the reason. It seemed more of a "You save me, and I'll save you " from ntn and then later when ntn was in trouble and you were not, you saved him because he saved you. At least that's what you said. Not because there were better candidates.

Yeah, I was fuzzy on why we were talking about mutually moving off of one another, and I thought I had said. I think we were both acknowledging we only voted for one another out of self-defense and came to the agreement to look elsewhere. In the end, same difference; ntn moved off of me fairly quickly, and I moved off of him a little bit later.

[mckerney]

There is, but no reason to make that vote at this point.

Unvote Golden Eagle

I'm not going to consider anyone cleared by a scan with a cunning wolf out there, but if no one else is willing to go down that road I'll drop it for now.

[CrimsonFox]

At this stage of the game, having 5 votes on 5 different people is certainly not helping things, so if ntn doesn't get more of a push, I will gladly move my vote (probably to bhlloy at this point, based on what Lathum said earlier)


To bhlloy? This doesn't sit well with me.

[bhlloy]

I was thinking ntn, but my problem with ntn is that he was the big run that took the heat of Mauboy on day 1. I don't see why the wolves take it off mauboy to put it on another one of their own.

[Passacaglia]

To bhlloy? This doesn't sit well with me.

Me neither. I'm on GE as being the cunning, but if bhlloy is the cunning, I don't see the wolves killing the seer. They'd want to keep DV around so he could tell everyone that he scanned bhlloy.

[Passacaglia]

I was thinking ntn, but my problem with ntn is that he was the big run that took the heat of Mauboy on day 1. I don't see why the wolves take it off mauboy to put it on another one of their own.

Probably if ntn is the cunning -- they'd rather have a vanilla wolf get lynched then the cunning, who might get falsely cleared later.

[Lathum]

I don't see any wolf roles that should have been able to do this ... hidden role, some kind of reward for a race, anyone have thoughts on this?
Me neither, pretty crappy luck and I can be as mad at EF as I like for there not being anything in the rules.

I agree that we should lay off bhlloy today because it seems like this is a move to draw interest on to him.
disagree. I was a logical kill choice regardless of who I voted for.

Sorry. They are trying to frame bholly as a wolf.

disagree

[Passacaglia]

Lathum, can you explain why you think the wolves would kill DV is they knew he scanned the cunning?

[Lathum]

Me neither. I'm on GE as being the cunning, but if bhlloy is the cunning, I don't see the wolves killing the seer. They'd want to keep DV around so he could tell everyone that he scanned bhlloy.

and allow him to continue scanning people?

doubtful...

[Lathum]

Lathum, can you explain why you think the wolves would kill DV is they knew he scanned the cunning?

as a wolf when you learn who the seer is you kill him. ASAP.

[hoopsguy]

OK, took some time to recap all the voting stuff from Day 1. I've included both votes and notes in this, along with post numbers for people to head back and verify this themselves, see if there are any important posts that I may not have captured.

164 Autumn votes JAG 1-0
169 PF votes Mauboy 1-1 JAG/Mau
170 Lathum votes Rum 1-1-1 JAG/Mau/Rum
172 Mau votes Rum 2-1-1 Rum over JAG/Mau
175 Danny votes JAG 2-2-1 Rum/JAG over Mau
178 JAG votes Autumn 2-2-1-1 Rum/JAG over Mau/Autumn
181 bhl votes Mau 2-2-2-1 Rum/JAG/Mau over Autumn
* 182 MartinD (wolf) post about vote concentration early, usually more spread out *
185 MartinD votes Mau 3-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
186 Rum votes Mau 4-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
187 mck votes Mau 5-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
189 Rum unvotes Mau 4-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
193 Danny unvotes JAG, votes NTN 4-2-1-1-1 Mau over Rum over Autumn/JAG/NTN
194 Jackal votes NTN 4-2-2-1-1 Mau over Rum/NTN over Autumn/JAG
200 Hoops votes NTN 4-3-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
205 Zinto votes Chief 4-3-3-1-1 Mau over NTN/Rum over Autumn/JAG


Note #1 - MartinD is almost certainly not popular with his wolf teammates after sending the "wolf" PM to Saldana and putting a wolf out in front of votes.

Note #2 -Mau votes for Chief early (first to two votes)

Note #3 - Early votes on Mau = PF, bhl, Rum, mck (Rum pulls his fairly quickly)

Note #4 - Danny offers NTN as a new candidate, is followed by two villagers (Jackal + me, although I'm not revealed as one yet)

Note #5 - Zinto puts the vote on Chief instead of Mau or NTN, who are the two leaders. Says in #205 he wants 3 candidates.

206 NTN votes Chief 4-4-3-1-1 Mau/Rum over NTN over Autumn/JAG
212 Pass votes NTN 4-4-4-1-1 Mau/Rum/NTN over Autumn/JAG
213 Chief votes NTN 5-4-4-1-1 NTN over Mau/Rum over Autumn/JAG
219 Crimson votes Mau 5-5-4-1-1 NTN/Mau over Rum over Autumn/JAG
222 NTN unvotes Chief, votes Mau 6-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG

Note #6 - this looks good for NTN, in my mind. If he was a wolf with Mau then he would likely have held his vote in the 5-5-4 setup with hopes to get some movement on Chief. But instead he pushes Mau into lead and CR 3 back. Seems more villager survival instinct than conceding wolf in my mind, barring crazy 3 wolf run-off scenario (have to almost entirely discount getting this lucky).

224 - DV votes Mau. 7-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
226 - Cougar votes Mau 8-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
234 - Mau unvotes Chief, votes NTN 8-6-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
235 - GE votes NTN, 8-7-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
237 - Saldana votes NTN, 8-8-2-1-1 Mau/NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG


Note #7 - good thing Saldana + GE have some checks in the good book (Sal gave us wolf, GE seer scanned, based on 2nd hand info) with these votes

240 - Lathum unvotes Rum, votes NTN 9-8-1-1-1 NTN over Mau over Autumn/JAG/Rum
242 - Chief unvotes NTN, votes Mau 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/JAG/Rum

Note #8 - big swing vote here by Chief, assuming that NTN = villager. About 2 hours and 15 minutes to deadline here.

* 251 - Mauboy's "if only I could see the future" post with 1 hour 40 minutes until lynch deadline *
258 - Autumn unvotes JAG, votes Mau 10-8-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum
* 262 - I ask if people missed post #251, why no one is reacting to this. 1 hour 10 minutes until lynch deadline *
264 - NTN unvotes Mau, votes JAG 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG
277 - Danny unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-7-1-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG/Crimson
279 - Mau unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-6-2-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Crimson over Autumn/Rum/JAG
280 - Rum unvotes Mau, votes JAG 8-6-2-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Crimson/JAG over Autumn/Rum
290 - Autumn unvotes Mau 7-6-2-2-1-1- Mau over NTN over Crimson/JAG over Autumn/Rum
291 - Autumn votes JAG 7-6-3-2-1-1- Mau over NTN over JAG over Crimson over Autumn/Rum
301 - Saldana unvotes NTN, votes MartinD 7-5-3-2-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over JAG over Crimson over Autumn/Rum/MartinD
* 301 is the post where Saldana reveals that MartinD forwarded his PM with info on being a wolf. 25 minutes before deadline. *
304 - Danny changes vote to MartinD
305 - Autumn changes vote to MartinD
315 - mck changes vote to MartinD
318 - PF changes vote to MartinD
322 - DV changes vote to MartinD
327 - Cougar changes vote to MartinD
330 - Mau changes vote to MartinD
337 - NTN changes vote to MartinD
340 - Lathum changes vote to MartinD

[Passacaglia]

as a wolf when you learn who the seer is you kill him. ASAP.

I see your point about getting more reveals. I guess I feel like I'd rather wait for DV to reveal his incorrect info.

[hoopsguy]

I can confirm (and mckerney can back me up on this) that we didn't get any special message / reward for being in first at the end of the D2 segment. I presume the same was true for you and CR? (and Lathum/Jackal can chime in for D1). So I don't think it's race-related unless it's wolf-only and that would seem unbalancing. That doesn't leave me with much since I don't remember reading about hidden roles or abilities this game.

I did not receive anything for the stage that we won yesterday. Both D2 and D3 were elimination stages, so I wonder if it might have been different on D1? But that wouldn't make sense either as Jackal and Lathum have both been shown as villagers.

So squash that idea ...

[Passacaglia]

hoops, why did you leave out the fact that CR unvoted mau (at least, according to Autumn's post on page 21)?

[EagleFan]

To keep things from getting off track I will reveal a little of what happened. It has been noted that the game seemed to have some rules stacked against the wolves. I added a couple extras for the wolves that were designed to help even things out a little. This was all decided upon before the game began (not related to anyone questioning the rules).

A condition was met which unlocked an ability for them. I will not say what the condition was at this time (after the game I will) or when that was unlocked (also after the game I will).

[MartinD]

Note #1 - MartinD is almost certainly not popular with his wolf teammates after sending the "wolf" PM to Saldana and putting a wolf out in front of votes.

If there was an award for 'Understatement of the Game', I suspect that we have a winner... ;)

[Chief Rum]

hoops, why did you leave out the fact that CR unvoted mau (at least, according to Autumn's post on page 21)?

Which one? He has them both. Post 189 and Post 280 in hoops' list (which I presume is correct, I don't remember my post #s).

[mckerney]

I did not receive anything for the stage that we won yesterday. Both D2 and D3 were elimination stages, so I wonder if it might have been different on D1? But that wouldn't make sense either as Jackal and Lathum have both been shown as villagers.

So squash that idea ...

I can back up JAG on us not receiving anything.

One thing I'm wondering about that I haven't seen covered, was the injury and made DV fall back in the race the result of a random roll of bad luck, or someone using aggression on him? If it's a team of two wolves in the race we wouldn't find out, but is anyone willing to come forward that their team used aggression, perhaps at suggestion of a teammate to stay ahead of DVs team?

[Passacaglia]

Which one? He has them both. Post 189 and Post 280 in hoops' list (which I presume is correct, I don't remember my post #s).

Yeah, I see it now. He called you "Rum" and that threw me off.

[cougarfreak]

as a wolf when you learn who the seer is you kill him. ASAP.

Yes, that seems obvious to me as well. Very obvious. They have to kill him, he's a safe bet to keep getting better and better as the game goes on, does he not? And the seer "scans" one person a night, is that right?

[cougarfreak]

Ok, I have a state rules meeting for Tennis at 7:00 tonight, and the place is about 45 minutes to an hour from my house. I really don't have much to go on today, so I'm going to throw a vote out there.....and I hope I have time to get home, and check out what the hell is going on. Lathum was killed by the wolves today, but his vote still counts, and he still talks? This is weird. So I'm not putting a lot of stock in my vote, and if some run comes around, and I don't switch off later, don't read much into it, as in I'm trying to hide, or dumb for not switching. Seems to tell us the most.

votentndeacon

[Passacaglia]

Talent Specialist - The talent specialist has an eye for what someone may be able todo or how they may appeal to the masses. Each night the Talent Specialist may research one player and learn if they are truly in it to win it (seer).

Here's the description of the seer from the first post. Yes, one scan per night.

[Lathum]

To keep things from getting off track I will reveal a little of what happened. It has been noted that the game seemed to have some rules stacked against the wolves. I added a couple extras for the wolves that were designed to help even things out a little. This was all decided upon before the game began (not related to anyone questioning the rules).

A condition was met which unlocked an ability for them. I will not say what the condition was at this time (after the game I will) or when that was unlocked (also after the game I will).

for the record I haven't made any comments to EF, but I will say when a hidden mechanic pops up in a game it really pisses me off, especially when there is nothing in the rules about hidden mechanics.

I play WW like chess and try to think 3 moves ahead. It frustrates me when something happens to derail that, especially if I didn't know there was a possibility that could even happen.

[CrimsonFox]

To keep things from getting off track I will reveal a little of what happened. It has been noted that the game seemed to have some rules stacked against the wolves. I added a couple extras for the wolves that were designed to help even things out a little. This was all decided upon before the game began (not related to anyone questioning the rules).

A condition was met which unlocked an ability for them. I will not say what the condition was at this time (after the game I will) or when that was unlocked (also after the game I will).


MULTIBALL! ALL BALLS UNLOCKED!

[CrimsonFox]

If there was an award for 'Understatement of the Game', I suspect that we have a winner... ;)

:jester:

Martin, this is full of awesome.

[Danny]

I lean towards bh and ntn being villagers based on what I've seen posted so its unfortunate that seems where the votes are headed at this point

[CrimsonFox]

ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1021) GoldenEagle (1091) cougarfreak (1113)
Chief Rum 1 - Passacaglia (1042)
bhlloy 1 - Lathum (1056)
Zinto 1 - Autumn (1061) bhlloy (1092)

[CrimsonFox]

ntndeacon 3 - PackerFanatic (1021) GoldenEagle (1091) cougarfreak (1113)
Chief Rum 1 - Passacaglia (1042)
bhlloy 1 - Lathum (1056)
Zinto 2 - Autumn (1061) bhlloy (1092)

I can't count past 1 it seems...

[Danny]

vote zinto

I don't like the other options out there and its getting a.bit late to introduce a 5th candidate. Again though, I will relook at some things when I get home

[EagleFan]

As of post 1121:

ntndeacon 3 - PackerFanatic (1021), GoldenEagle (1091), cougarfreak (1113)
Zinto 3 - Autumn (1061), bhlloy (1092), Danny (1121)
Chief Rum 1 - Passacaglia (1042)
bhlloy 1 - Lathum (1056)

[The Jackal]

The wolves may have gotten us out of one portion of the game, but rest assured, Lathum and I will be leaving them (and the rest of you) in our dust as we island and continent hop.

[Zinto]

This is a total self preservation vote and I am open to anything at this point but for now...

Vote NTN

[Danny]

Btw, earlier I said lathum living through night 2 made me think there wasn't a hoops autumn type wolf. I take that back. The wolves likely knew they were going to have this extra kill option and figured they might as well go seer hunting

[CrimsonFox]

this does make sense.

[EagleFan]

Will be offline for a bit. Will do my best to get things run on time tonight but things just got a little crazy at home.

[saldana]

i'm sorry for being gone all day...my job is freaking insane right now and i dont have time to stay caught up.

i love the fact that i come home to multiple pages to read...reminds me of the good ol' days!

this game is alot harder to keep up with because i am having a hard time remembering who is "dead" and who isnt since everyone can still post,but of all the analysis over the votes i like this argument the most

vote Chief Rum

[The Jackal]

You can always check the front page to see who is dead, sal.

[CrimsonFox]

ntndeacon 4 - PackerFanatic (1021), GoldenEagle (1091), cougarfreak (1113) Zinto (1124)
Zinto 3 - Autumn (1061), bhlloy (1092), Danny (1121)
Chief Rum 2 - Passacaglia (1042) saldana (1128)
bhlloy 1 - Lathum (1056)

[Danny]

Yes, a lot of activity! Especially considering two of the days we had runaway votes. Werewolf is back baby! :)

[Chief Rum]

i'm sorry for being gone all day...my job is freaking insane right now and i dont have time to stay caught up.

i love the fact that i come home to multiple pages to read...reminds me of the good ol' days!

this game is alot harder to keep up with because i am having a hard time remembering who is "dead" and who isnt since everyone can still post,but of all the analysis over the votes i like this argument the most

vote Chief Rum

Despite the fact that I was on mau for much of that day? I made a key vote moving over from mau and ntn the second time around, and only moved off of him because of his "reveal". I only moved off of him the first time because of that ridiculous run from out of nowhere. Anyone reading back on that will clearly see that.

I'm far from cleared, but I think there are better candidates for this vote right now.

[CrimsonFox]

Why do I think that all the wolves are currently voting for ntn at the moment.

[Danny]

Despite the fact that I was on mau for much of that day? I made a key vote moving over from mau and ntn the second time around, and only moved off of him because of his "reveal". I only moved off of him the first time because of that ridiculous run from out of nowhere. Anyone reading back on that will clearly see that.

I'm far from cleared, but I think there are better candidates for this vote right now.

I agree with this, and I really don't understand the group of candidates we have now except for Zinto. I don't understand why we would be looking at key Mau voters when we have one known wolf on him. It is possible more than one wolf put an earlier vote on him, but unlikely and much more likely the other wolves voted elsewhere.

[Chief Rum]

I know I am a villager, and at a key point on Day One, I, mau and ntn were more or less neck and neck, with it being unclear who would move out in front. With mau being a wolf, wolves would have had to consider moving me or ntn up in voting to save mau. If both mau and ntn are wolves, as suggested, then I would have been the only option and there should have been an upswell to make the second candidate.

That didn't happen, though. In fact, people moved off of me and moved ntn up. You guys are going to tell me the wolves had a choice between a wolf and a villager to put up against mau and they chose the wolf? IMO, ntn is clearly a villager.

I don't necessarily have a bad feeling about Zinto, but I have to go with one of the players higher than me (since I have two votes), and I don't think ntn is a wolf at all.

VOTE ZINTO

[Passacaglia]

Despite the fact that I was on mau for much of that day? I made a key vote moving over from mau and ntn the second time around, and only moved off of him because of his "reveal". I only moved off of him the first time because of that ridiculous run from out of nowhere. Anyone reading back on that will clearly see that.

I'm far from cleared, but I think there are better candidates for this vote right now.

I think the idea is that if you were a wolf, the vote is not a "key vote" since you would know the reveal was coming. I'm actually surprised that you're still arguing that your vote on mau somehow matters.

[Danny]

Why do I think that all the wolves are currently voting for ntn at the moment.

I lean towards ntn being good and with that, I'd be shocked if there isn't at least one wolf on him at this point. I haven't seen one good piece of reasoning for any of those four votes outside of he happened to be in the running day 1.

[Danny]

I think the idea is that if you were a wolf, the vote is not a "key vote" since you would know the reveal was coming. I'm actually surprised that you're still arguing that your vote on mau somehow matters.

I don't buy this. His original vote was around noon before Mau was even a top candidate. Mau had his fake reveal five hours later. It is possible the wolves had this plan to pile votes on Mau and have him fake reveal, but that's not unlikely and not a good line of thinking for us to follow at this point.

[Danny]

I meant to say that's not likely

[Chief Rum]

I think the idea is that if you were a wolf, the vote is not a "key vote" since you would know the reveal was coming. I'm actually surprised that you're still arguing that your vote on mau somehow matters.

There were nine voters on mau at the peak, IIRC. Why am I the one of the nine you think is playing this this way? You in particular have targeted me above others in consideration, and willfully ignore evidence to the contrary. I don't know why that is, but I hope it's because you're a confused but stubborn villager, rather than someone more deceitful.

If I was waiting for the reveal, is there some reason why it was some time before I switched off of mau after his reveal? Or was I just away during that time, do you surmise? Like many it seems, I didn't really look that closely at mau's "reveal" post until hoops pointed it out. So why as a hypotehtical wolf am I choosing to "miss" that reveal I supposedly knew about before getting off of mau?

You're going out of your way to construct reasons to lynch me.

[mckerney]

Vote Zinto

[CrimsonFox]

ntndeacon 4 - PackerFanatic (1021), GoldenEagle (1091), cougarfreak (1113) Zinto (1124)
Zinto 4 - Autumn (1061), bhlloy (1092), Danny (1121) Chief Rum (1135)
Chief Rum 2 - Passacaglia (1042) saldana (1128)
bhlloy 1 - Lathum (1056)

[CrimsonFox]

ntndeacon 4 - PackerFanatic (1021), GoldenEagle (1091), cougarfreak (1113) Zinto (1124)
Zinto 5 - Autumn (1061), bhlloy (1092), Danny (1121) Chief Rum (1135) mckerney (1141)
Chief Rum 2 - Passacaglia (1042) saldana (1128)
bhlloy 1 - Lathum (1056)

Yes it is true...I am bored...

[Chief Rum]

Vote Zinto

Not that I disagree with the vote, but no reason why, mckerney?

[CrimsonFox]

Ok, I have a state rules meeting for Tennis at 7:00 tonight, and the place is about 45 minutes to an hour from my house. I really don't have much to go on today, so I'm going to throw a vote out there.....and I hope I have time to get home, and check out what the hell is going on. Lathum was killed by the wolves today, but his vote still counts, and he still talks? This is weird. So I'm not putting a lot of stock in my vote, and if some run comes around, and I don't switch off later, don't read much into it, as in I'm trying to hide, or dumb for not switching. Seems to tell us the most.

votentndeacon


I really really don't like this explanation. It is longwinded and overdetailed and roundabout and nervous-sounding, yet the explanation doesn't really say anything. Very wolfy explanation.

[hoopsguy]

I like Zinto as a wolf more than NTN, for reasons that I outlined in my Day 1 vote analysis. I think NTN's vote was much more in line with a villager looking to survive (not indicating knowledge of Mau = wolf) while Zinto's vote looked like it was aiding Mau.

Beyond that, I don't have any hugely keen observations on the two of them. But I don't think Chief or bhl represent great candidates either, so I'll stick with one of the leaders rather than trying to instigate movement on another character.

VOTE ZINTO

[Danny]

Also, looking back and knowing Jackal is a villager, I'd bet there is good chance the wolves sacrificed their night 1 kill for the future ability to make an instant day kill.

[Autumn]

Trying to catch up. One thing i"ll point out, for those wondering why the wolves would kill Darth if he had scanned the cunning - when the wolves put in their kill order they likely did not know that Darth was out of the race. So they may have counted on him revealing the scans he had already.

I don't have any particular reason to think he scanned the cunning, but noticed no one had brought up this point.

[Autumn]

Also, looking back and knowing Jackal is a villager, I'd bet there is good chance the wolves sacrificed their night 1 kill for the future ability to make an instant day kill.

That's a really good point.

I think it could also be that they have the ability to unlock certain actions depending on how they do in the race - either through performing well (not necessarily coming in first), or sabotaging others.

[Autumn]

I agree with this, and I really don't understand the group of candidates we have now except for Zinto. I don't understand why we would be looking at key Mau voters when we have one known wolf on him. It is possible more than one wolf put an earlier vote on him, but unlikely and much more likely the other wolves voted elsewhere.

One reason, Danny, is the timing of the votes. Martin and Chief's and McKerney's votes on Mau, for instance were simultaneous, and it's possible they didn't realize the other wolf was planning on voting Mauboy. If Martin and one of these other one were a wolf they might each have been planning on putting a third vote, and discovered they were adding third, fourth and fifth. Thus Chief backing right off.

I'm not voting Chief, because there are other reasons to see his votes as good, but I think you could definitely make an argument for him. He moved his vote around the most in ways that sometimes seemed to help Mauboy out.

[CrimsonFox]

That's a really good point.

I think it could also be that they have the ability to unlock certain actions depending on how they do in the race - either through performing well (not necessarily coming in first), or sabotaging others.

I've been trying to find it and can't, but I remember EF saying something like "There's a game-changing event coming today." I forget which day that was. But I am guessing that was the day the wolves unlocked their ability. Although at first I thought it was someone using their aggressive points on DV.

[mckerney]

Not that I disagree with the vote, but no reason why, mckerney?

The biggest reason is that right now I don't think ntn is a wolf, if he were I don't think he would've become a second candidate before the votes went to MartinD. Of all the people with votes on them right now he's the one I'd say is least likely to be a wolf, yet he was still a leader earlier. I agree with Crimson that ntn probably has a couple of wolf votes on him. Zinto fits in having a vote on ntn, and he's the one with the best chance of beating ntn in voting.

[Autumn]

181 bhl votes Mau 2-2-2-1 Rum/JAG/Mau over Autumn
* 182 MartinD (wolf) post about vote concentration early, usually more spread out *

This was one thing I noted when I read back. Just idle chatter by a wolf posing as villager, or did we have more than one wolf there and he was hoping to encourage more candidates? The fact that he didn't then add another one makes me think it was just chatter, but who knows.

[Autumn]

I've been trying to find it and can't, but I remember EF saying something like "There's a game-changing event coming today." I forget which day that was. But I am guessing that was the day the wolves unlocked their ability. Although at first I thought it was someone using their aggressive points on DV.

You're right, that was during last night's leg. I thought it meant someone had jumped up or down in the rankings. I haven't really gone back to see if that happened but didn't notice it in the writeup.

No one is fessing up to using aggression on DV, and Bhlloy didn't seem to think anything fish happened. So either it didn't, another team is wolf/wolf and did something, or bhlloy is a wolf and pulled something.

I don't think we'll figure this out, but it will be interesting after the game to see the mechanic.

[EagleFan]

As of post 1154:

Zinto 6 - Autumn (1061), bhlloy (1092), Danny (1121), Chief Rum (1135), mckerney (1141), hoopsguy (1146)
ntndeacon 4 - PackerFanatic (1021), GoldenEagle (1091), cougarfreak (1113), Zinto (1124)
Chief Rum 2 - Passacaglia (1042), saldana (1128)
bhlloy 1 - Lathum (1056)

[JAG]

Alright, I have some time to dive into hoops' lovely summary at last (thanks hoops).

[GoldenEagle]

At this point we need information. I think lynching ntn tells us more info than lynching zinto.

[saldana]

i hate having my vote be irrelevant

i think the odds of having 2 wolves on the block on day one are very very low
unvote chief
vote zinto

[Passacaglia]

Looks like the Chief thing isn't happening.

UNVOTE CHIEF RUM
VOTE NTNDEACON

[EagleFan]

Race Deadline

[EagleFan]

Finishing the rolls / calculations and will start ont he writeup shortly.

[EagleFan]

All of the teams are on their way. There is little that seperates the team as they make their way to Chennai.

The Pair of Amazing Nuts had a chance to dicsuss their strategy a bit and said that they plan on getting off the plane as quick as possible and cutting in front of whoever they needed to in order to get a taxi or ride to Pondicherry.

MartinD and saldana and Danny and mauboy1 all encouraged them to use that approach. They think it may help them win this race. PackerFanatic and cougarfreak felt like maybe they have made an ally in this race.

[EagleFan]

As the teams start filtering into Chennai what stands out is how aggressively PackerFanatic and cougarfreak push past people to hire a ride to Pondicherry.

They are off on their way to Pondicherry...

[EagleFan]

Meanwhile...

Back in Chennai the other teams head to the roadblock and continue their race...

[EagleFan]

Chief Rum and hoopsguy make the roadblock first. Chief Rum will perform. They have to take a lesson in how to drive in India and then navigate a motorcycle through the given route.

Chief Rum does surprisingly well.

While Chief begins the course two other teams arrive.

JAG and mckerney and CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle.

JAG and CrimsonFox chose to do the roadblck for their team and both seem to nail the course but they actually lose a little ground on Chief Rum and hoopsguy.

[Chief Rum]

Meanwhile...

Back in Chennai the other teams head to the roadblock and continue their race...

Lol

[CrimsonFox]

As the teams start filtering into Chennai what stands out is how aggressively PackerFanatic and cougarfreak push past people to hire a ride to Pondicherry.

They are off on their way to Pondicherry...

A Fast Forward?? Huh?!?

[EagleFan]

Lathum and The Jackal arrive next along with Autumn and ntndeacon.

Jackal and Autumn are the ones that perform the task. Autumn does well but Jackal struggles.

As they are almost done MartinD and saldana arrive. saldana tries his hand at the task and does a great job and makes up some time on the other teams. He drove it as if he was doing it all his life.

Danny and mauboy1 show up well behind the pack. They may be in trouble but Danny does a fine job though he almost ended up in an accident as a truck swerved right in front of him but he did a great job of saving it and staying on the bike.

[Chief Rum]

A Fast Forward?? Huh?!?

My guess is that they are going to need to come back to Chennai to do the roadblock.

[Passacaglia]

Good thing our team isn't around anymore -- I would wanted us to go to Madras.

[JAG]

"* 182 MartinD (wolf) post about vote concentration early, usually more spread out *"

At the time the vote was 2-2-2-1 me/Chief/mau/Autumn. Shortly after his comment he pushed mau to 3 votes (trying to look good on a potential lynch target? Looking to make a late move to save him?) If we take his comment seriously that he was concerned about another candidate that had a vote on them at the time and wanted a new candidate, then I would look at Chief and Autumn, probably leaning more towards Autumn because mau put a second vote on Chief which seems a weird wolf move to make at that time. The only wolfy vibe this game I've had about Autumn is when he was trying to make sense of the D1 voting this morning and left me really confused with what he was saying (I can give him a break for not having caffeine in his system, or maybe it was my own lack). Other than that, he seems like someone who's been trying to figure things out. So I'm not 100% sure what to think just yet.

So after that there was a four vote run on mau, though really the three by Chief, mckerny, and MartinD were close together (the other one was over an hour beforehand). After the run on mau, Danny introduces ntn as a candidate. I find that worth some suspicion after the comment from Martin. Another couple hoops' thoughts here:

"222 NTN unvotes Chief, votes Mau 6-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG

Note #6 - this looks good for NTN, in my mind. If he was a wolf with Mau then he would likely have held his vote in the 5-5-4 setup with hopes to get some movement on Chief. But instead he pushes Mau into lead and CR 3 back. Seems more villager survival instinct than conceding wolf in my mind, barring crazy 3 wolf run-off scenario (have to almost entirely discount getting this lucky)."

Hard to argue with that.

"242 - Chief unvotes NTN, votes Mau 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/JAG/Rum

Note #8 - big swing vote here by Chief, assuming that NTN = villager. About 2 hours and 15 minutes to deadline here."

Also seems reasonable.

"258 - Autumn unvotes JAG, votes Mau 10-8-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum
* 262 - I ask if people missed post #251, why no one is reacting to this. 1 hour 10 minutes until lynch deadline *
264 - NTN unvotes Mau, votes JAG 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG
277 - Danny unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-7-1-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG/Crimson
279 - Mau unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-6-2-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Crimson over Autumn/Rum/JAG"

In my opinion, this sequence again looks suspicious for Danny. Assuming he didn't want to vote for the 'seer', with three other people out there with one vote to vote for (also assuming he wouldn't go with ntn because he wanted a second candidate), he picks another candidate that ends up being a wolf target (although I didn't look at the timing of this and CF's comments that may have led them to believe he was a seer, though mau was quick to jump on the vote after it happened) as they presumably hunted for the real seer.

So anyway, here we are 30 minutes from deadline, so this isn't really helpful for the vote today. How was Danny not a serious candidate for today again?

[EagleFan]

Chief Rum and hoopsguy attempt to Sell It. They are at the busy Spencer Plaza and are being overshouted by the others in the maret. It seems that the guys are too busy hassling them and not letting them try to sell.

CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle arrive at the Plaza and are attempting to hawk their goods as well. They are having a little better luck but it is quite hectic.

JAG and mckerney enter the mix and add to the confusion. Last we see them it seems that they are getting in each other's way; though it does not seem to be on purpose.

[JAG]

I would rather vote Danny than Zinto, but the other options look more questionable to me, so:

Vote Zinto

[EagleFan]

Good thing our team isn't around anymore -- I would wanted us to go to Madras.

:)

[Autumn]

JAG, speaking for myself I know I didn't have a great deal of time once it came time to cast a vote. This evening every time I look over things I come up with Danny, for the reasons above. I think there was something I saw this morning that made me think he wasn't the best out of that list, I'll have to look back and see what it was.

[Autumn]

Oh I see - early in teh day Danny unvotes JAG who had my vote as well, and introduces NTN. Unless you are both wolves, JAG, I can't see why a wolf would bother doing this with Mauboy in the lead. His explanation at the time makes good sense, so that's the piece of evidence that's kept me from voting him today.

[EagleFan]

At the cricket field...

Autumn and ntndeacon; Lathum and The Jackal and Danny and mauboy1 decided to try their hands at that task.

Autumn and ntndeacon show their physical abilities off and master the bowl and the hit. Taking just two attempts to bowl a legal attempt and hitting the first "pitch" well beyond 10 meters.

Danny and mauboy1 struggled a little but Danny soon learned that hitting 10 meters didn't have to go foward and he could use the momentum of the pitch to help.

Lathum ad The Jackal struggle at first as their is confusion as they begin bowling to each other. Evendutlly they see that one was supposed to just bowl a legal attempt while the other would then have to face a club bowler for their attempt to hit.

[Danny]

JAG, why distract from the current run off now? You should have brought me up and voted for me earlier. Now it just looks like you know what the lynch result is going to be and you are starting to set up tomorrows lynch.

[EagleFan]

All the teams are off to Pondicherry for the long near 3 hour journey as they head towards the pitstop...

[EagleFan]

Chief Rum and hoopsguy dominated this leg and arrive at the mat.

Chief and hoops, you are the second team to arrive...

However...

[EagleFan]

The first team that arrived didn't count. Congratulations, you are the first to arrive again.

[Autumn]

lol

[JAG]

Oh I see - early in teh day Danny unvotes JAG who had my vote as well, and introduces NTN. Unless you are both wolves, JAG, I can't see why a wolf would bother doing this with Mauboy in the lead. His explanation at the time makes good sense, so that's the piece of evidence that's kept me from voting him today.

Well, I could see him thinking there was already a vote on me, so if he added another candidate to the mix with ntn, there was more potential for more villagers to get votes that mau wouldn't get voted up, or in the case that you or CR are wolves since I hadn't got much traction as a votee to that point. I don't think that's really a compelling argument to make me think he's not the best candidate I have to this point.

Have to put my oldest to bed, so not sure I'm going to be around for anything late.

[CrimsonFox]

:eek: :lol: :jawdrop:

[EagleFan]

The second team to arrive is CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle...

Third to arrive is Autumn and ntndeacon...

JAG and mckerney are the 4th team to arrive.

5th is The Jackal and Lathum as they seemed to have others pulling against them.

[CrimsonFox]

Awesome that so many people are around at deadline

[CrimsonFox]

:banana::party::funkychickendance:

Yeah baby!
The second team to arrive is CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle...

Third to arrive is Autumn and ntndeacon...

JAG and mckerney are the 4th team to arrive.

5th is The Jackal and Lathum as they seemed to have others pulling against them.

[JAG]

JAG, why distract from the current run off now? You should have brought me up and voted for me earlier. Now it just looks like you know what the lynch result is going to be and you are starting to set up tomorrows lynch.

Danny, this is the only time I've had today to try and actually think/analyze what's going on instead of reacting to random posts in between working.

Later all.

[EagleFan]

saldana and MartinD arrive in 6th...

Danny and mauboy1 arrive just after them in 7th...

Cue the sad music as we see PackerFanatic and cougarfreak still making their way though the tasks back in Chennai....


Eventually...


PackerFanatic and cougarfreak, you are the last team to arrive...


I am sorry to tell you that you have been eliminated from the race.

[EagleFan]

We see PackerFanatic and cougarfreak walking away fromt eh camera and talking...

Maybe those teams weren't being as helpful as we thought...

[Danny]

Danny, this is the only time I've had today to try and actually think/analyze what's going on instead of reacting to random posts in between working.

Later all.

If that's the case then ok. We'll see the result here. I think if Zinto is a wolf, I look pretty good. If he is not, I'm at the same place I was before and I expect we'll be continuing this discussion at some point.

[Danny]

Hah, Mau and I live to race another day! We just do enough to stay in the limelight. After all, we don't care about winning as long as we stay on tv.

[EagleFan]

As of post 1190:

Zinto 8 - Autumn (1061), bhlloy (1092), Danny (1121), Chief Rum (1135), mckerney (1141), hoopsguy (1146), saldana (1158), JAG (1173)
ntndeacon 5 - PackerFanatic (1021), GoldenEagle (1091), cougarfreak (1113), Zinto (1124), Passacaglia (1159)
bhlloy 1 - Lathum (1056)

[cougarfreak]

saldana and MartinD arrive in 6th...

Danny and mauboy1 arrive just after them in 7th...

Cue the sad music as we see PackerFanatic and cougarfreak still making their way though the tasks back in Chennai....


Eventually...


PackerFanatic and cougarfreak, you are the last team to arrive...


I am sorry to tell you that you have been eliminated from the race.

Well, crap.

[EagleFan]

Race Standings
1st - Team 10
2nd - Team 5 (+0:40)
3rd - Team 8 (+1:10)
4th - Team 4 (+1:50)
5th - Team 3 (+2:30)
6th - Team 2 (+3:45)
7th - Team 6 (+3:50)

[EagleFan]

deadline

[GoldenEagle]

Meh. I think we messed up today, but what do you do?

[EagleFan]

After a long leg of racing it is time to get down to business. There are moles to find.

You feel that Zinto must be one. After another long interogation you get what you want, a full confession.

He confesses to being an old man that wanted to win the race...

Zinto was a vanilla villager.

Zinto is now completely out of the game.

[mauchow]

We see PackerFanatic and cougarfreak walking away fromt eh camera and talking...

Maybe those teams weren't being as helpful as we thought...

That's hilarious. We live to fight another day, Danny. Now we're just 5 minutes behind Saldana and Martin. We can make up that time. HOpefully we'll finally get some challenges that suit our abilities.

[EagleFan]

Later that evening you notice that something is different. saldana is walking around in that familiar T-shirt with a very unamazing how on it. He has been talked out by the moles.

saldana was a vanilla villager

[Chief Rum]

Meh. I think we messed up today, but what do you do?

I suspect you're right, but only because Zinto's probably a villager, not that we chose the wrong guy of the top two candidates. I think it's pretty likely we have two villager here. Oh well, to make an omelette...

[Danny]

Bah

[Autumn]

Double damn.

[Zinto]

Good luck villagers:)

[Lathum]

I think bholly is the way to go today.

[Danny]

I think I'm going to be looking strongly at Hoopsguy today. I know his schedule has been tough, but he's really stayed out of things so far and he was on my list of early day 1 voters who were not part of the Mau run.

[Danny]

I think bholly is the way to go today.

Really, on the chance he is the cunning wolf? Not a good percentage play with 3 wolves still out there.

[Passacaglia]

He only needs to be one of the wolves, not all 3.

[EagleFan]

When you are allowed to begin you will start at Pondicherry and you will travel to Dubai. From there...

You have a clue to the Roadblock.
Who has a keen eye? Requires Mental


You have a clue to the Detour.

Keep the rhythm: Learn a traditional dance routine and perform. Requires physical and mental.
- Specific dance or the men and for the women
- Learn it quickly and perform well and you can be on your way in no time.
- Fail to pick it up quickly and you may be there for a long time.

Navigate it: Navigate a small boat through a set course. Requires Water and Mental.
- Select a boat to navigate though a set course.

Pit Stop - Dubai Mall

[Danny]

He only needs to be one of the wolves, not all 3.

But it's a poor percentage play. We have to find all of the wolves to win. If we find the other two and what's left is the cunning then ok, but it's a terrible play to go after someone who could only be the cunning at this point.

Also, on a non-strategy point, how crappy would it be if the seer was partnered up with the cunning.

One more point, it's obvious the wolves watched closely to reactions to Mau's reveal and were targeting people they thought might be the seer. DV and Crimson were probably the two most not buying Mau's reveal.

[Passacaglia]

But it's a poor percentage play. We have to find all of the wolves to win. If we find the other two and what's left is the cunning then ok, but it's a terrible play to go after someone who could only be the cunning at this point.

Also, on a non-strategy point, how crappy would it be if the seer was partnered up with the cunning.

One more point, it's obvious the wolves watched closely to reactions to Mau's reveal and were targeting people they thought might be the seer. DV and Crimson were probably the two most not buying Mau's reveal.

I think that plays into the cunning's hands, though. If you've got a read on a guy, and the cunning is in play, I think it'd be wrong not to follow that. We get the point, and a reminder that a guy has been scanned isn't always a bad thing (like how I forgot GE had been scanned earlier today), but sometimes you have to go with your thoughts rather than the numbers.

But your last paragraph is dead on, and it gives me some ideas. I'm going to bed now, but this is a reminder to myself to look at that tomo.

[EagleFan]

Leg Four In Pictures

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/2269/chennaiairport1.jpg
Chennai Airport

http://roadsafety.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/driving-in-india.jpg

http://helloji.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/driving-in-india_1.jpg

http://sifyimg.edgesuite.net/static.sify.com/content/media/image/jmorIJejfdb.jpg

http://www.indiantouristdestiny.com/images/spencer-plaza-view.jpg
Spencer Plaza

http://www.hindu.com/2005/11/12/images/2005111215810201.jpg

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_L2xQX5qyQlw/SxDrR4J2epI/AAAAAAAAeNY/ieECeq1RDaw/s1600/pondicherry-02.JPG

[hoopsguy]

I think I'm going to be looking strongly at Hoopsguy today. I know his schedule has been tough, but he's really stayed out of things so far and he was on my list of early day 1 voters who were not part of the Mau run.

I don't know how much action you'll be able to coax out of me. I'll participate in the thread where I can, but tomorrow I'll be visiting a client for the first time and don't even know if I'll have access to the site.

Anyway, if enough people think I'm the right play then it will be another bad day for the village.

If there are in-game reasons to suspect me, and I think I could come up with a couple if I was leading a charge, then go with those. But my participation in the thread is not a particularly good indicator of my allegiance, or at least I try exceedingly hard not to make that a "leak" in my game. I'm as active as I can be in every game I play, villager or wolf.

[bhlloy]

Really, on the chance he is the cunning wolf? Not a good percentage play with 3 wolves still out there.

If I'm the cunning then why did it take until night 3 to kill the seer? The wolves had a day kill in their pocket (in all likelyhood) as well remember. So under Lathum's scenario either DV didn't tell me about the scans until late on day 3 (which wouldn't make any sense, why scan me right away if you don't trust it) or I just decided not to kill the seer for a couple of days for the fun of it, and went after CF instead.

Out of the two of us I'd have thought there was more chance of GE being the cunning (which I don't believe either).

[saldana]

If I'm the cunning then why did it take until night 3 to kill the seer? The wolves had a day kill in their pocket (in all likelyhood) as well remember. So under Lathum's scenario either DV didn't tell me about the scans until late on day 3 (which wouldn't make any sense, why scan me right away if you don't trust it) or I just decided not to kill the seer for a couple of days for the fun of it, and went after CF instead.

Out of the two of us I'd have thought there was more chance of GE being the cunning (which I don't believe either).

i am willing to bet anything that the day kill didnt become usable until yesterday. they didnt have anything "in their pocket" or they would have taken it out and used it.

when you're a wolf, you dont hold killls back, even if all you achieve is confusion.

[PackerFanatic]

Really?? That is a pretty lame way to go out...we never specified to stay in Chennai, assuming the roadblock or whatever else would be in Pondicherry. *sigh*

[PackerFanatic]

Sorry cougar, guess I got over-zealous with the aggression, heh.

[Autumn]

I'm just going with a gut vote here. There are some voting reasons to bark up this tree, but to be honest it's mostly just a vibe.

<b>VOTE DANNY</b>

[Autumn]

If I'm the cunning then why did it take until night 3 to kill the seer? The wolves had a day kill in their pocket (in all likelyhood) as well remember. So under Lathum's scenario either DV didn't tell me about the scans until late on day 3 (which wouldn't make any sense, why scan me right away if you don't trust it) or I just decided not to kill the seer for a couple of days for the fun of it, and went after CF instead.

Out of the two of us I'd have thought there was more chance of GE being the cunning (which I don't believe either).

If the wolves had a day kill they would have used it on DV, no question, you don't risk letting him get another scan in. I'm sure they didn't get it until shortly before they used it.

And we have no proof, bhlloy, that Darth told you anything. You "revealed" that Darth told you he was the seer after his death. You might have found out the same way as everyone else.

I'm not voting Bhlloy right now because I think his reveal is fairly solid and doesn't have a lot of holes in it. I'm going to assume for now that it's true. The other wolf moves have not been airtight, it would be surprising if they pulled this out of their pocket suddenly.

[Danny]

I'm just going with a gut vote here. There are some voting reasons to bark up this tree, but to be honest it's mostly just a vibe.

<b>VOTE DANNY</b>

Eat a sandwich and then reconsider your vote :)

[Danny]

Vote Courgarfreak. This may change, but I want to apply some pressure here.

[ntndeacon]

I may have missed it being out most of yesterday, but do we know for sure this "benefit" for the wolves is a day kill? I thought I had seen where Eagle had talked about a couple of things that could be unlocked forthe wolves, not just one.

[Passacaglia]

I may have missed it being out most of yesterday, but do we know for sure this "benefit" for the wolves is a day kill? I thought I had seen where Eagle had talked about a couple of things that could be unlocked forthe wolves, not just one.

I think you did miss it -- Lathum was killed in the middle of the day yesterday.

[ntndeacon]

ahhh thanks Pass.

[hoopsguy]

Wow, very very slow start to the day.

I've got very limited access to the site today, but will at least throw a vote down before leaving for the day. Not sure if it matters, but if there are questions about activity level I expect tomorrow to be 10x better for me than today.

[EagleFan]

As of post 1225:

Danny 1 - Autumn (1218)

[Passacaglia]

EF, are you not counting Danny's vote? I think he has problems using bold on his phone, but he tried to vote for cougarfreak.

[Autumn]

I don't think Cougarfreak is a good vote, actually. His vote on day one is as solid as they come.

[Autumn]

Frankly, I think another place to vote is on the top team. Chief and Hoops being in first place could have something to do with having unlocked a wolf bonus. I"m not sold on either of them as wolves just based on voting records, but they're certainly on the list of suspects. The fact that they've also established such a lead, combined with the unknown wolf bonus mechanics, makes me suspicious.

[GoldenEagle]

I am not really sure where to go at this point. If we miss today, we are in trouble. They are 12 people left and we assume a 9:3 ratio. It is not a panic stage yet, but we need to make sure we get one today.

I still think ntn and Danny are the two best options. I will likely vote one of those two today. I got to get some work done this afternoon, so I will probably not be back until around the deadline.

[Chief Rum]

Frankly, I think another place to vote is on the top team. Chief and Hoops being in first place could have something to do with having unlocked a wolf bonus. I"m not sold on either of them as wolves just based on voting records, but they're certainly on the list of suspects. The fact that they've also established such a lead, combined with the unknown wolf bonus mechanics, makes me suspicious.

While I understand where you're coming from, I think you should think that one through.

We know that allegiances were rolled after teams were rolled, and that there is no connection between the two other than what random.org may provide. If you're suggesting that our success is possibly based on wolf mechanics being used, you're either saying that one of us is a wolf but somehow we're benefitting it without the non-wolf teammate knowing, or you're saying that, much less likely, we're both wolves and that EF designed mechanics for an all-wolf team he didn't even have set up in his rules and that was unlikely to happen in the first place, based on likely wolf numbers versus villagers.

You really have to leap through some hoops (pun intended) to reach this conclusion and actually believe it's likely, and even just accepting the possibility seems to be a serious stretch.

I know I and hoops will attract attention just because of our veteran status as WW players, even aside from our success in the race stage. But I think we need to be careful about trying to draw conclusions like these and going down roads that just lead us away from wolves. I know I am not a wolf, and you say you have seen indications of that for both of us. I don't get a wolf vibe from hoops either, whether here in thread or in PMs.

FWIW, although it's a bit metagamey, hoops ain't lying about being busy. I am busy, too. We actually share at best 2-3 PMs a day, and it has all been race stuff or telling each other we're too busy to do much race stuff ( ;) ); we haven't even discussed WW stuff. In fact, I'm a bit proud that we have managed to put together winning race strategies in the short times that we have had.

[EagleFan]

EF, are you not counting Danny's vote? I think he has problems using bold on his phone, but he tried to vote for cougarfreak.

only bold, don't want to open that potential can of worms...

[Danny]

Honestly, I mostly voted cougar to see what his response would be. I don't see him responding yet and there doesn't seem to be much support anyway, so ill likely end up "officially" voting elsewhere

[Autumn]

Chief, I'm suggesting that one of you could be a wolf, and that the wolves could benefit from things like winning a leg, or being in first place. It doesn't require much to jump to that conclusion though I admit there's nothing to base it on other than a guess. I feel quite sure that there are some relations between how/what the wolves do in the race and unlocking their kill.

If you guys had sterling records I wouldn't bother considering it, but given that you both are on my list of folks with votes that could be wolf-ish, I'm keeping it in mind.

[Danny]

Autumn, if you had to choose between hoops and cr at this point, who would you choose?
I'm not getting a wolfish feel from autumn despite his current vote on me.

[Chief Rum]

Chief, I'm suggesting that one of you could be a wolf, and that the wolves could benefit from things like winning a leg, or being in first place. It doesn't require much to jump to that conclusion though I admit there's nothing to base it on other than a guess. I feel quite sure that there are some relations between how/what the wolves do in the race and unlocking their kill.

If you guys had sterling records I wouldn't bother considering it, but given that you both are on my list of folks with votes that could be wolf-ish, I'm keeping it in mind.

Like I said, I understand you're thinking here, I just don't see how a wolf-villager team coukld be taking advanatge of wolf mechanics without the villager teammate knowing. And it's not like either hoops or I is a spring chicken. If that was going on with the other teammate, the villager among us would definitely notice. Since that hasn't happened, your only logical line of thinking would be to assume we're both wolves (odds are high against that) AND that EF has designed wolf mechanics for us to use in that situation (an odd design decision, if true, given "wolf teams" are very unlikely, based on numbers).

[Autumn]

Like I said, I understand you're thinking here, I just don't see how a wolf-villager team coukld be taking advanatge of wolf mechanics without the villager teammate knowing. And it's not like either hoops or I is a spring chicken. If that was going on with the other teammate, the villager among us would definitely notice. Since that hasn't happened, your only logical line of thinking would be to assume we're both wolves (odds are high against that) AND that EF has designed wolf mechanics for us to use in that situation (an odd design decision, if true, given "wolf teams" are very unlikely, based on numbers).

Why would the other teammate have to know anything? perhaps the mechanic simply rewards a wolf for achieving first place, to give a very simple example. The other teammate wouldn't have to know anything. Perhaps the wolves can help or sabotage a team behind the scenes, to give another example.

I do think each of us should be watching out for any signs of such things from our teammates, however. You're right, Chief, that we could detect something if the wolf was trying to urge us to put a ton of points on an event or something.

[Autumn]

Autumn, if you had to choose between hoops and cr at this point, who would you choose?
I'm not getting a wolfish feel from autumn despite his current vote on me.

I suppose I would go with Chief, simply because he has a lot of vote movement on day one that looks suspicious. Hoops I'd really have to go back and look more, he hasn't been as out in front.

[Passacaglia]

I'm getting a really defensive vibe from Chief the past couple days.

[Passacaglia]

Like I said, I understand you're thinking here, I just don't see how a wolf-villager team coukld be taking advanatge of wolf mechanics without the villager teammate knowing. And it's not like either hoops or I is a spring chicken. If that was going on with the other teammate, the villager among us would definitely notice. Since that hasn't happened, your only logical line of thinking would be to assume we're both wolves (odds are high against that) AND that EF has designed wolf mechanics for us to use in that situation (an odd design decision, if true, given "wolf teams" are very unlikely, based on numbers).

This makes no sense to me. I'm not really sold on Autumn's reasoning here, but I am with him in wondering how a villager teammate would have to know what his wolf teammate is up to. Maybe Danny and saldana can shed some light on that one, though.

[Autumn]

That said, I should say if I was going to vote one of them I would do more digging before I voted either way.

[hoopsguy]

Why would the other teammate have to know anything? perhaps the mechanic simply rewards a wolf for achieving first place, to give a very simple example. The other teammate wouldn't have to know anything. Perhaps the wolves can help or sabotage a team behind the scenes, to give another example.

I do think each of us should be watching out for any signs of such things from our teammates, however. You're right, Chief, that we could detect something if the wolf was trying to urge us to put a ton of points on an event or something.

Jumping in now, and I can't vouch for how EF would run the game but I can say that there is nothing in the PMs that we have received from EF that have given any indication of a separation between villager/wolf benefits from winning.

I've put at least as much time into putting together the race information as I have in the thread, which is probably leading to less participation in the thread. Only have so much time, and the research on how to optimize race stuff (travel, trying to create edges for what events may be) has sucked up some of my critical analysis of posts, vote histories, etc.

Anyway, got sidetracked there a bit. But I do want to emphasize that there is nothing in shared PMs that Chief and I have received (and I haven't been getting any non-shared PMs) that gives me reason to suspect CR any more or less than what we've seen in the thread we all share.

[hoopsguy]

At this point, if I had to lay down a vote it would probably go towards Danny. I've seen him dictate tempo a lot more as a villager than what I've seen this game. By comparison, his last wolf game he kept a very low profile. I'm worried that I'm seeing this because 1.) he indicated distrust in me last night and 2.) because I'm still annoyed at how little attention he got in his last wolf game. But that is where my gut says I should be voting right now.

I'm going to go through a quick player review and throw together what amounts to my "in the moment" trust list and see if that exercise helps me with my voting process today.

[Lathum]

Jumping in now, and I can't vouch for how EF would run the game but I can say that there is nothing in the PMs that we have received from EF that have given any indication of a separation between villager/wolf benefits from winning.
.

except them getting a bonus daytime kill

[JAG]

Vote Danny

To this point I don't see any reasoning that makes me feel different than I did last night when I thought Danny was the best chance to be a wolf of the remaining people.

Autumn, I'm not sure about your idea with the race mechanic. I know mckerney and I have been in first once and second twice and I can vouch for what hoops is saying in that I never received a PM from EF, either joint or individual. It seems like a wolf bonus like that could be rather unbalancing without villagers getting some kind of benefit. To this point we don't have any evidence that anything race-related has an impact on the WW game.

[JAG]

Lathum, can you shed any light on your unblockable bonus (is that race or WW related) or would it not be beneficial to let the wolves know?

[bhlloy]

My gut says Danny, but I'd like to take a closer look at CR's history as well. He has been unusually defensive the last couple of days and he's just not as analytic or involved in this game as I've seen him be. Whether that's because he's a wolf trying not to draw attention or because of circumstance, I have no idea. Just get a very un-CR vibe from him in this game.

I don't feel ntn as a wolf as I've said before. He was about an hour away from being voted off day 1 until the MartinD reveal and I don't remember anyone putting anything forward to try and save him. Unless he's a roled wolf and MartinD was a sacrifice but nobody seemed to think that was remotely realistic.

[hoopsguy]

except them getting a bonus daytime kill

I was talking about the PMs that I've been on with Chief. There certainly wasn't anything along those lines that I've seen.

There pretty much have to be separate PMs sent to the wolves, but I can tell you that on our time I've done a lot of the legwork on putting together the instructions for the first three days and Chief did almost everything yesterday. We've seen the effort listed in the PMs and that amount balances with what I got from EF's report (no changes in aggression/effort) that he sent last night.

So if I'm inadvertently propping up a wolf teammate, I'm doing it completely in the dark. I would expect, therefore, that other villagers would be working under similar circumstances. Is it possible? Yeah, absolutely. But I haven't felt a shifting hand from Chief Rum trying to get us to do anything way out of the ordinary to achieve results either ... just trying to provide clarification on this as a team who has had some success in the race so far.

[hoopsguy]

Here are my impressions on people, which are almost entirely shaped by the Day 1 vote. It is important to note that if NTN was a wolf that would dramatically change the (relative) trust dynamics.

I would like to take some time to dig through yesterday's posts, but I'm out of time for right now. Don't know how much I'll be on between now and deadline, other than to drop a vote before heading out for the day.

1. Autumn - avoided Mau + NTN on D1
3. Passacaglia - non-factor on D1 (NTN vote creating 3 way tie)
4. mckerney - early vote on Mau
5. PackerFanatic - first vote on Mau, would wolves had had 2 of 3 first votes on him?
8. JAG
10. ntndeacon - forced into defensive D1
11. bhlloy - purportedly scanned by DV, early vote on Mau
12. cougarfreak - key vote on Mau
15. Danny - introduced NTN as candidate, don't think that NTN/Danny are likely to be wolves together
16. Chief Rum - Mau voted for him early D1, somewhat erratic D1 voting (on/off candidates)
17. hoopsguy - I know I'm a villager
19. GoldenEagle - purportedly scanned by DV

[Chief Rum]

Pass, you see me as overly defensive because I am annoyed trying to repeatedly point out a lack of logic in your own dogged pursuit of me, and your seeming unwillingness to consider the possibility I am a villager or that there might be better candidates. It's easy to get defensive in that situation.

I have presented the information on my votes for Day One. Anyone interested can feel free to fidn them to see what was going on with them.

I am looking forward to an actual logical argument to lynch me. ;)