WW Amazing Race - Game Over (Moles Win & Team Reebok Wins)

[cougarfreak]

I don't think Cougarfreak is a good vote, actually. His vote on day one is as solid as they come.

Thank you, I'm not as experienced as some of you guys, I am still learning. Kinda reading, and catching up.

[Danny]

vote chief rum

I'm not 100 percent sold on this vote, but its clear I am going to be a lead candidate, and right now I need a second candidate before this becomes a villager run off. Its risky since chief is not one of the people who has said their voting for me.

[Danny]

vote chief rum

I'm not 100 percent sold on this vote, but its clear I am going to be a lead candidate, and right now I need a second candidate before this becomes a villager run off. Its risky since chief is not one of the people who has said their voting for me.

[cougarfreak]

My gut says Danny, but I'd like to take a closer look at CR's history as well. He has been unusually defensive the last couple of days and he's just not as analytic or involved in this game as I've seen him be. Whether that's because he's a wolf trying not to draw attention or because of circumstance, I have no idea. Just get a very un-CR vibe from him in this game.

I don't feel ntn as a wolf as I've said before. He was about an hour away from being voted off day 1 until the MartinD reveal and I don't remember anyone putting anything forward to try and save him. Unless he's a roled wolf and MartinD was a sacrifice but nobody seemed to think that was remotely realistic.

Why are you thinking Danny, I'm trying to wrap my head around some of this.

[Chief Rum]

I don't think there is enough confidence in you as a candidate, Danny, that a runaway would develope. The tendency of the village is to provide at least two candidates, if for any reason, than to provide voting information for down the line.

That said, I understand selecting a target to try to get that second candidate going.

I am torn on you, because I see some of the things others have been saying about you. Plus, even though mau was faking his seer reveal, there is still some logic to suggest that, even in that situation, that he would choose to not "scan" you, his partner, so that you wouldn't draw unnecessary attention (this is in the hypothetical that the two of you were a wolf pair).

I have held off partly because you got the right read on me yesterday when Pass was gunning for me, and supported me there. That actually doesn't make a difference on whether or not you're a wolf, but it at least makes me hesitate.

[Danny]

[B][unvote chief/B]

I've tried to vote twice now, but I really should until I am home and can do some better analysis

[bhlloy]

Why are you thinking Danny, I'm trying to wrap my head around some of this.

All I have to go on is his day 1 vote with mauboy of CF, who ended up being the first NK. At that point I think there's a very good chance that the wolves had identified him as possible seer because of his comments about mauboys reveal (with DV a close second) and so that vote just looks really bad to me.

The second, very very tenuous reason is that I think there could have been a concerted wolf effort to sabotage DV and I in the race (using aggression points) and if so, it probably would have taken a wolf only team to pull it off. Danny is mauboy's teammate so it could make sense. But that's like 1% of my reason and the other 99% is the day 1 vote of CF.

It's hardly a cast iron reason to vote for somebody, but it's the only thing I have to go on right now that isn't completely based on a feeling about somebodies play or isn't a complete shot in the dark.

[Passacaglia]

Pass, you see me as overly defensive because I am annoyed trying to repeatedly point out a lack of logic in your own dogged pursuit of me, and your seeming unwillingness to consider the possibility I am a villager or that there might be better candidates. It's easy to get defensive in that situation.

I have presented the information on my votes for Day One. Anyone interested can feel free to fidn them to see what was going on with them.

I am looking forward to an actual logical argument to lynch me. ;)

My own *dogged pursuit*? Seriously? And my seeming unwillingness to consider the possibility that you're a villager? Are you playing the same game as me?

[Lathum]

Lathum, can you shed any light on your unblockable bonus (is that race or WW related) or would it not be beneficial to let the wolves know?

not sure what you mean here.

any ability I had was related to werewolf, I got nothing from the race for any incentives.

[Chief Rum]

My own *dogged pursuit*? Seriously? And my seeming unwillingness to consider the possibility that you're a villager? Are you playing the same game as me?

Do you just have a memory block on yesterday or something? Do you want me to re-post your posts for you?

[CrimsonFox]

1. Autumn - avoided Mau + NTN on D1
3. Passacaglia - non-factor on D1 (NTN vote creating 3 way tie)
4. mckerney - early vote on Mau
5. PackerFanatic - first vote on Mau, would wolves had had 2 of 3 first votes on him?
8. JAG
10. ntndeacon - forced into defensive D1
11. bhlloy - purportedly scanned by DV, early vote on Mau
12. cougarfreak - key vote on Mau
15. Danny - introduced NTN as candidate, don't think that NTN/Danny are likely to be wolves together
16. Chief Rum - Mau voted for him early D1, somewhat erratic D1 voting (on/off candidates)
17. hoopsguy - I know I'm a villager
19. GoldenEagle - purportedly scanned by DV

There's one thing I noticed about mckerney. The day after I was eaten/NKed, and spoke my piece against mauboy, mckerney dropped the first vote on mauboy, even announcing that fact. I don't think a wolf would try that move, but would rather hope that no one would listen to me instead of trying to start a run. So I think mckerney is safe.

[Passacaglia]

Hmm, maybe you should take a closer look at what was happening there.

I voted mau because of his following up with a second vote so quick (I forget who he voted, probably ntn). If you recall, he claimed he was preparing his vote post and then got interrupted at work and couldn't post his vote fro 45 minutes. By the time he did, it was right after someone else had voted the same guy. So it looked like a quick follow vote. It was Day One after all, not much is needed to put a guy on the block.

In any case, I started a vote post of my own. There was maybe one vote on mau at the time. By the time I finished my post, there was another mau vote, and then someone followed me with a mau vote. That was in a very quick stretch. I decided I didn't like that, and that's why I unvoted mau.

I later voted for ntn in a self-defense move; it was me, mau and ntn on the block at the time, and I was still skittish about voting mau, given the way that run had developed. ntn also had his vote on me. He and I agreed to take our votes off of one another because we both felt there were better candidates. At this point I went back to mauboy1, still in self-defense mode.

I stayed on mauboy1 until he did the seer hint-reveal. That was getting closer to when I was leaving for the day, and I wasn't going to leave my vote on the potential seer. So I unvoted mau and went to JAG, one of the few others with a vote, avoiding ntn because I had already told him I wouldn't vote for him that day. At the time it was looking like an ntn-mau head to head, and people were starting to jump off of mau with his "reveal".

I left for the day at that point (or at least until past deadline), and so I wasn't around for the MartinD stuff.

It was a Day One vote, and crazier than normal, with all the weird runs. I was prepared to lynch mau on Day One and would have if he didn't do the fake reveal.

Chief, I think this is the post with what you claim is evidence. If there's another post, you can feel free to let me know. Anyway, this does not seem like "evidence" to me, rather an attempt to explain away.

[Passacaglia]

Do you just have a memory block on yesterday or something? Do you want me to re-post your posts for you?

Do I want you to? Not particularly, it doesn't matter to me. But if it helps you, be my guest!

[Danny]

In response to bh, I voted crimson before mau did and before he reacted against mauboy. It wasn't as you described where I voted him after he reacted. The suspicion on me is fair, but most of it is because my partner happened to be a wolf who did all the crazy things he did. Mau did a nice job making sure I got suspicion after he died.

[Danny]

Oh and my voting record is crap ;)

[CrimsonFox]

In response to bh, I voted crimson before mau did and before he reacted against mauboy. It wasn't as you described where I voted him after he reacted. The suspicion on me is fair, but most of it is because my partner happened to be a wolf who did all the crazy things he did. Mau did a nice job making sure I got suspicion after he died.

What are partners for! :D

[hoopsguy]

I just don't have time to do the research project that I want to do right now, but I would put the following question out there to those with a little time and motivation ...

What do we learn if NTN is lynched as a wolf? As a villager?
What do we learn if Danny is lynched as a wolf? As a villager?

I'm torn between what my gut says (Danny) and where I think we learn the most info (NTN). So if someone wants to work through that exercise I would greatly appreciate it. Either way, I'll likely be dropping a vote when I get home from work and then be gone for the night.

[EagleFan]

As of post 1225:

Danny 1 - Autumn (1218)
Chief Rum 1 - Danny (1252)

[Danny]

Hoops, ill try and answer that without bias. I'd say we learn a large amount if ntn is a wolf and a fair amount if he is a villager. If I am a wolf we learn a moderate amount and if I'm a villager we learn almost nothing.

[Chief Rum]

Chief, I think this is the post with what you claim is evidence. If there's another post, you can feel free to let me know. Anyway, this does not seem like "evidence" to me, rather an attempt to explain away.

Do I claim "evidence" somewhere? In my post to which I think you are referring, I speak of "information", and this post indeed does qualify as that.

I don't have evidence to prove I am not a wolf other than what I myself know. Come to think of it, neither do you.

[CrimsonFox]

Vote Courgarfreak. This may change, but I want to apply some pressure here.

Whoa! I'm getting whiplash following all the people you're accusing.

[Chief Rum]

Do I want you to? Not particularly, it doesn't matter to me. But if it helps you, be my guest!

If it doesn't matter to you, why are you questioning my description of your pursuit of me as "dogged" and unwilling to consider I am a villager"? If you don't care, don't waste our time challenging my assertion.

[CrimsonFox]

I don't think Cougarfreak is a good vote, actually. His vote on day one is as solid as they come.

THe only reason I suspect Cougarfreak is his weird answers/explanations while voting, but that's more of a hunch, no vote tracking. Probably not something to deal with right now.

[CrimsonFox]

My own *dogged pursuit*? Seriously? And my seeming unwillingness to consider the possibility that you're a villager? Are you playing the same game as me?


I will say that you've been terribly strident about your beliefs in who is a wolf and it's like you're over HERE while the rest of us are over THERE in what we're talking about. This isn't a bad thing. I like it actually. It's kinda funny. Your argument to "search for the cunning" doesn't work for me though.

[JAG]

I just don't have time to do the research project that I want to do right now, but I would put the following question out there to those with a little time and motivation ...

What do we learn if NTN is lynched as a wolf? As a villager?
What do we learn if Danny is lynched as a wolf? As a villager?

I'm torn between what my gut says (Danny) and where I think we learn the most info (NTN). So if someone wants to work through that exercise I would greatly appreciate it. Either way, I'll likely be dropping a vote when I get home from work and then be gone for the night.

I can't fully answer this (shopping and writing currently), but if ntn is a wolf, it would change my thinking dramatically, for one Danny would be close to cleared in my mind as I can't see why a wolf would introduce another wolf D1 in that situation. Ive been operating under the assumption ntn=villager, so it would also reflect worse on Mau voters. I can't really sort the rest out now, but I stand by thinking Danny is a more likely wolf than ntn based on the D1 voting so I don't see myself switching to ntn.

[Chief Rum]

My question to voters who think ntn is a wolf, or aren't certain enough of him being a villager that they would stop him from being lynched:

If at one key point on Day One, mau, myself and ntn were tied up/close to even on votes (this happened) AND ntn is a wolf, and we already know that mau is a wolf, why did the following votes push ntn (the proposed wolf) up to save mau (known wolf), rather than push me up (in this scenario, unless you truly believe all three of mau, myself and ntn are wolves, you have to consider me a villager--hypothetically) as an alternative to mau?

That's what I want to know.

At one point, the three of us were either tied at 4 votes apiece, or maybe one of us had 5 votes. Regardless, we were clearly the three players under consideration at that point. We know mau is a wolf. Throwing out the unlikelihood that all three of us are wolves, if mau was a wolf and so was ntn, why is that at this point, ntn got more votes and was pushed up to go head to head with mau, rather than myself?

IMO, it's extremely unlikely ntn is a wolf, unless the wolves just completely dropped the ball there.

[Autumn]

I'm sorry I'm not able to be very active today. Work hasn't let me, and now my wife is out and I'm dealing with the kids.

[Passacaglia]

There were nine voters on mau at the peak, IIRC. Why am I the one of the nine you think is playing this this way? You in particular have targeted me above others in consideration, and willfully ignore evidence to the contrary. I don't know why that is, but I hope it's because you're a confused but stubborn villager, rather than someone more deceitful.

If I was waiting for the reveal, is there some reason why it was some time before I switched off of mau after his reveal? Or was I just away during that time, do you surmise? Like many it seems, I didn't really look that closely at mau's "reveal" post until hoops pointed it out. So why as a hypotehtical wolf am I choosing to "miss" that reveal I supposedly knew about before getting off of mau?

You're going out of your way to construct reasons to lynch me.

Chief, here's the evidence post I was talking about.

[Passacaglia]

If it doesn't matter to you, why are you questioning my description of your pursuit of me as "dogged" and unwilling to consider I am a villager"? If you don't care, don't waste our time challenging my assertion.

I meant that it doesn't matter to me if you repost my posts.

[Passacaglia]

I will say that you've been terribly strident about your beliefs in who is a wolf and it's like you're over HERE while the rest of us are over THERE in what we're talking about. This isn't a bad thing. I like it actually. It's kinda funny. Your argument to "search for the cunning" doesn't work for me though.

Really? I don't know how I'm giving off this vibe when I'm not at all sure myself who's a wolf. I don't think I've ever said "search for the cunning" though -- just that if you think someone is a wolf, it doesn't make sense to avoid voting for him just because he'd have to be the cunning.

[CrimsonFox]

Really? I don't know how I'm giving off this vibe when I'm not at all sure myself who's a wolf. I don't think I've ever said "search for the cunning" though -- just that if you think someone is a wolf, it doesn't make sense to avoid voting for him just because he'd have to be the cunning.


It makes less sense to vote for someone as a wolf with the only reason being that being the cunning is the only way they could be a wolf. Only a 5% chance anyone starting the game is the cunning.

Re: vibe. I don't know. But it seems that if we were all in a room together, you come across like you're shouting at whoever you're accusing. Granted that's sometimes a good tactic.

[Chief Rum]

Chief, here's the evidence post I was talking about.

So you're picking at one word in one post I made yesterday? Really?

You have yet to refute anything I have said.

[Chief Rum]

Re: vibe. I don't know. But it seems that if we were all in a room together, you come across like you're shouting at whoever you're accusing. Granted that's sometimes a good tactic.

Agreed, that's a good description of Pass's approach to me in this game. I don't know about shouting per say, but unflinchingly accusatory, yes. Far more than the "evidence" supports doing so, anyway.

For someone who is uncertain of who is a wolf, Pass, you certainly did lock in on me.

[Passacaglia]

It makes less sense to vote for someone as a wolf with the only reason being that being the cunning is the only way they could be a wolf. Only a 5% chance anyone starting the game is the cunning.

Re: vibe. I don't know. But it seems that if we were all in a room together, you come across like you're shouting at whoever you're accusing. Granted that's sometimes a good tactic.

Yeah, I understand the percentages, I just don't think it makes sense to ignore your own thoughts about the way things are now, just because they were unlikely initially.

Definitely funny about the vibe, since Danny and Autumn earlier accused me of being too mellow.

[Passacaglia]

So you're picking at one word in one post I made yesterday? Really?

You have yet to refute anything I have said.

Well, that is the one word you asked about, right? I said you claimed it was evidence, you said, "Do I claim 'evidence' somewhere" and I showed where you did.

[CrimsonFox]

Definitely funny about the vibe, since Danny and Autumn earlier accused me of being too mellow.

You can't please everybody . :D

(or anybody, for that matter)

[Chief Rum]

Well, that is the one word you asked about, right? I said you claimed it was evidence, you said, "Do I claim 'evidence' somewhere" and I showed where you did.

Okay, I see that, but it's still just one word in a lengthy post, and, really that's just asshat nitpicky. The first time you brought it up, you didn't even quote the right post! No one reading my posts are going to think I am offering up incontrovertible proof of villagerness. I don't have that (and as I noted, neither did you).

This is picky crap, Pass, and you're still not even trying to refute anything I am saying, just quibbling about word usage.

I'm done with it. You go on thinking what you want; it's clear you're not inclined to be open-minded about anything here. All we're doing is wasting time with posts like these, so this is the last one I am making on this matter.

If you want to get back into discussing actual arguments for or against my allegiance, let me know. If you're just going to pick out words in my posts, please just vote for me like you want to and otherwise leave me be.

[cougarfreak]

You know.........Pass seems like he's acting like a wolf to me. He's throwing all kinds of unfounded accusations at Chief. I'm going out on a limb here.

vote Pass

[Danny]

Pass' play has been bipolar so far this game. He played really mellow and then after Autumn and I questioned it, has been playing more like he did a couple games ago. I do wonder if it's forced based on our comments.

[Chief Rum]

You know.........Pass seems like he's acting like a wolf to me. He's throwing all kinds of unfounded accusations at Chief. I'm going out on a limb here.

vote Pass

Hmm, I have thought about that myself, but it's just not a wolf play. I don't really think Pass is a wolf. I think Pass is many things at the moment--but a wolf is not really one of them, at least not without more proof.

Unless he's playing some sort of double blind game ("best hiding place is in plain sight", etc.), it seems unlikely to me that Pass would play this out the way he has while being a wolf.

[Danny]

Oh and Crimson, by my count the only alive players I haven't voted for or pressured are Packer, bh, Autumn, Mckerney and goldeneagle.

[Danny]

I figure as long as I get those five in sometime before I die, then at the end of the game I can say I told you so about all of the wolves regardless of which of them are.

[ntndeacon]

One thing in Danny's defense... Right after mau made his play about being the village picture taker (whatever he called the role) Danny was the first to call him on it and vote for him. This gives him a little more leaway for me...so I am gonna go elsewhere. I have been looking at someone for a bit trying to see the reason for certain posts. So I will agree with cougar's latest vote and say...

Vote Pass

[hoopsguy]

This is likely to be my last check in before deadline - have family over this evening and I'm already getting heat for stepping away. I really wish I had more availability today as this feels like a fairly important day if there are five wolves - get the right lynch here and we would be taking control of the game. Miss it and we're looking at an uphill battle.

Anyway, my thoughts on D1 suggest that NTN = villager and that makes Danny (on top of gut) more likely to be a wolf in my mind. I think it is far from a perfect argument, but you rarely have perfect arguments for catching good players/wolves.

VOTE DANNY

[CrimsonFox]

Oh and Crimson, by my count the only alive players I haven't voted for or pressured are Packer, bh, Autumn, Mckerney and goldeneagle.


Thanks I'll make a note of that.

[CrimsonFox]

I figure as long as I get those five in sometime before I die, then at the end of the game I can say I told you so about all of the wolves regardless of which of them are.

Wow! You are a genius at this game being able to vote for all the wolves like that. :chickendance:

[GoldenEagle]

So basically we has a Pass/Chief pissing match and that is about all there is to analyze today.

I still think ntn is the best candidate and his willingness to hop on and through on Pass confirms that. What we have here is the classic '2nd vote' from a wolf. He is trying to build momentum on pass. I am not convinced he is a wolf, but i don't see how we can wrong at this point.

VOTE NTNDEACON

[CrimsonFox]

As of post 1297:

Danny 3 - Autumn (1218) JAG (1245) hoopsguy (1294)
Chief Rum 1 - Danny (1252 & 1253)
Passacaglia 2 - cougarfreak (1288) ntndeacon (1293)
ntndeacon 1 - GoldenEagle (1297)

Nice doublevote Danny. You must be twice as sure.

[Danny]

I actually tried to unvote him too, but didnt bold it

unvote chief
unvote chief

[EagleFan]

As of post 1299:

Danny 2 - Autumn (1218), hoopsguy (1294)
Passacaglia 2 - cougarfreak (1288), ntndeacon (1293)
ntndeacon 1 - GoldenEagle (1297)

[Danny]

EF, didnt JAG vote me

[CrimsonFox]

what about the 1245 vote by JAG?

[EagleFan]

As of post 1302:

Danny 3 - Autumn (1218), JAG (1245), hoopsguy (1294)
Passacaglia 2 - cougarfreak (1288), ntndeacon (1293)
ntndeacon 1 - GoldenEagle (1297)

[Passacaglia]

So Danny, we can vote for each other if you want, but there's also few enough votes on us that we can also together direct the vote somewhere else. What are your thoughts?

[CrimsonFox]

This reminds me of the ntn/Chief trade-off at the beginning of the game. :P
Come to think of it, that's the most I've ever heard ntn talk.

[Danny]

So Danny, we can vote for each other if you want, but there's also few enough votes on us that we can also together direct the vote somewhere else. What are your thoughts?

The issue I'm having is where to direct things though. We do learn a lot from ntn, but it's tough to believe two wolves would have been on the block day 1.

[Passacaglia]

One thing in Danny's defense... Right after mau made his play about being the village picture taker (whatever he called the role) Danny was the first to call him on it and vote for him. This gives him a little more leaway for me...so I am gonna go elsewhere. I have been looking at someone for a bit trying to see the reason for certain posts. So I will agree with cougar's latest vote and say...

Vote Pass

ntn, when you said you have been looking at someone and trying to see the reason for certain posts, are you trying to say that someone is me? Or are you looking at someone else, but voting with cougar for now?

[Danny]

My gut is most strongly towards Hoops at this point, but he's tough to judge as he has been as inactive as I've ever seen him.

[Danny]

fwiw though, with my early votes for cougar and cr, I wanted to see who might hop on and make a second vote to might help to establish a second villager. It is interesting that ntn was the one who finally did that and he wasn't around earlier when I made my votes as far as i know.

[Passacaglia]

The issue I'm having is where to direct things though. We do learn a lot from ntn, but it's tough to believe two wolves would have been on the block day 1.

What, is that a poor percentage play? :p

[Autumn]

Do we really only have six votes at this point? That's kind of crazy.

[mauchow]

How many votes are we missing yet?

LETS GO TEAM CELEBS! HIGH FIVE DANNY!! Time to make up some ground today!!!!!

[Danny]

As of post 210:

mauboy1 4 - PackerFanatic (169), bhlloy (181), MartinD (185), mckerney (187)
Chief Rum 4 - Lathum (170), mauboy1 (171), Zinto (205), ntndeacon (206)
ntndeacon 3 - Danny (193), The Jackal (194), hoopsguy (200)
JAG 1 - Autumn (164)
Autumn - JAG (178)


We have one known wolf on mau, one on cr, and none on ntn.

Again, there was some later switched that lead me to think ntn is a villager. There is me and Hoops on ntn uncleared at this point. I am voting Hoops

[Danny]

Vote Hoops

[cougarfreak]

Do we really only have six votes at this point? That's kind of crazy.

That's what I was thinking too...........there should be a whole lot more voting going on.

[Passacaglia]

Danny, out of all the people you mentioned, that's the only one that I would have followed you on.

VOTE HOOPSGUY

Going to work out, will be back before deadline.

[Danny]

Also to note from day 1, both CR and mau had key early votes on one another. That along with Martin already voting Mau lead me to think CR is not a good vote at this point. ntn also switched off CR when it was close to vote Mau, I dont think he does that if they are both wolves.

[EagleFan]

The teams are on their way to Dubai.

Most teams take the same routes though two teams stand out the most...

The Fembots and Team Five both do the best during the travel leg...

Lathum and The Jackal struggle the most; it seems that they took some not so helpful advice from Danny and mauboy1.

[Autumn]

Danny, with regard to your first point there, I've pointed out a few time sthat Martin and Chief voted Mau simultaneously, so that could have simply been a mistake by two wolves.

[mauchow]

What was the best travel route? Bangalore Airport?

[Passacaglia]

One more point, it's obvious the wolves watched closely to reactions to Mau's reveal and were targeting people they thought might be the seer. DV and Crimson were probably the two most not buying Mau's reveal.



But your last paragraph is dead on, and it gives me some ideas. I'm going to bed now, but this is a reminder to myself to look at that tomo.

Before I do go to work out, though, here's why I would follow you on hoops more than others. Your post here says a lot -- after Lathum revealed and didn't die, there were a lot of posts that seemed kind of mystified by the wolf kills, then once the seer died, those posts were taken back. I seem to remember you (Danny) and hoops as making the most vehement of those posts. It seemed fishy, like you guys were setting something up together. I like the fact that you guys are voting for each other today, though, since I suspect both of you. I hadn't mentioned it before now since I wanted to see what developed without me saying it, plus I didn't want CR to think I was backing down from his attacks on me. So Danny, you're still on my list, and I might end up voting for you (especially if there is self-defense as an incentive, obviously) -- but I do like the direction you're headed here.

[EagleFan]

The Fembots arethe first to arrive and head to the roadblock. It is like looking for a needle in the dessert...

They go to a dessert-like area and the chosen player, in this case hoopsguy, must use a map to attempt to find where to dig for the next clue....

hoops seems to be having trouble reading the map and dealing with the heat and she strips down to her underwear, receiving shocked looks from locals...

[Danny]

Danny, with regard to your first point there, I've pointed out a few time sthat Martin and Chief voted Mau simultaneously, so that could have simply been a mistake by two wolves.

This is true, but Mau also had vote #2 on Chief Rum, would they really both make what they believed to be second votes on each other as two wolves?

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[bhlloy]

I just have no idea where to go right now... it's going to be another stab in the dark I think. The runaway votes so far have really made it difficult to get any idea of history and the people whose day 1 was somewhat suspicious are either out or have plays since then that make me trust them

[PackerFanatic]

Haven't had much of a chance to read things today, truthfully, so my vote is fairly hit-and-run.

[Passacaglia]

Also to note from day 1, both CR and mau had key early votes on one another. That along with Martin already voting Mau lead me to think CR is not a good vote at this point. ntn also switched off CR when it was close to vote Mau, I dont think he does that if they are both wolves.

This is true, but Mau also had vote #2 on Chief Rum, would they really both make what they believed to be second votes on each other as two wolves?

You're making good points here. Probably not relevant for today's vote, but important later on.

[Autumn]

Well, we've already seen wolves voting each other day 1 pretty prominently, so I don't think we can discount the idea entirely, though it would typically be odd play.

[hoopsguy]

OK, done with family stuff for the night (earlier than expected) and I return to find that I have a couple of votes on me as well as being in my underwear. Hmmm, where did this game go wrong?

:)

[EagleFan]

CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle arrive next and CrimsonFox takes the roadblock. He picks up on the map quickly and cruises through the task. He sets the bar the highest and no other team comes close to finishing as quickly.

Team Eight, Team Reebok Ultra UnderArmour, arrives at the roadblock third and they struggle for the first time at a challenge. They are far from the worst team at the challenge but they show some frustration at their attempt and it causes a little turmoil between them.

The next teams to arrive are Team Four, Team Three and Team Two.

Team Six brings up the rear at the challenge, arriving last. They do get through the challengs quickly though which helps make up sonme time.

[hoopsguy]

OK, PackerFanatic - care to provide any reason at all for the vote on me?

And since there seems to be a fair amount of bargaining taking place between Danny and Pass (you guys won't look good for this if I do end up on the business end of the lynch) can I take part in this little game of patty-cake as well?

[Danny]

Also, while more a tongue in cheek argument, I'd have to believe a wolf-wolf team would be finishing better than at or neat last every leg :)

[EagleFan]

Team Fembot arives at the detour first, though Team Five is right on their heals. It seems that seeing hoops in her underwear has really spurred Team Five into a higher gear.

CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle try Navigate It while Team Fembot try Keep the Rhythm...

Both finish their roadblock quickly as Team Fembot shows they have the rhythm, leaving locals drooling over them.

They are on the way towards the pitstop...

[hoopsguy]

Our moderator really does seem to have me as the slut much more than Chief Rum ... I wonder why that is?

[EagleFan]

Teams Four and Three try to Navigate It.

The remaining teams all went with Keep the Rhythm...

Team Reebok Ultra UnderArmour stand out the most as they both pick up the dance well and move on to the pitstop quickly.

saldana and MartinD struggle with their dancing while Lathum and The Jackal struggle on the open water trying to navigate their craft through the course.

saldana and MartinD are yelling at each other most of the event. It seems that this rave may not be helping their relationship.

mauboy1 and Danny are both struggling with the dance as well. It seems they should not have listened to CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle with their earlier "can't miss" advice for the dancing challenge.

[CrimsonFox]

Thank you fembots for bouncing up and down. EF, you can call GoldenEagle and I "The Animals". :)

[GoldenEagle]

Suck it mauboy/Danny.

[CrimsonFox]

Or ColorAnimals for that matter :)

[mauchow]

Suck it mauboy/Danny.

lol! at least lathum and jackal are nowhere to be found, but yeah, that hurts my feelings man.

[Danny]

Suck it mauboy/Danny.

Yes, you used your aggression on a team that has no chance of winning, good one :p

[EagleFan]

We cut to the pitstop as we see Team Fembot and Team Five racing towards the destination. This may be the closest finish yet...

Then we see hoopsguy and Chief Rum enter the picture and leap onto the mat.

"Team Fembot you are the first team to arrive."

Chief Rum jumps into Phil's arms and surprises him with a kiss. Phil looks shocked, hoops looks jealous...

Then CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle arrive and we see CrimsonFox snapping a picture of hoops as he gets to the mat.

Team Five, youare the second team to arrive...

[mckerney]

Not sure about 3 hoops votes with little to no explanation, so

Vote Danny

[Danny]

Not sure about 3 hoops votes with little to no explanation, so

Vote Danny

I provided reasoning for my vote as did Pass. Packer did not, but there isn't any more explanation for me compared to Hoops.

[EagleFan]

Team Reebock finishes in 3rd.

Team Four finished in 4th.


We see the final three teams are relatively close, this could be a close finish for the three.

[CrimsonFox]

Yeah it would be good for everyone to finish voting before the deadline in 20 minutes :)

[GoldenEagle]

Anyone have a current vote count? It looks like I am going to need to move my vote off ntn. Although I am very confident he is a wolf at this point. If he is not, we gain some valuable information and can probably lynch pass tomorrow.

[EagleFan]

Danny and mauboy1 come into view... They look frustrated and tired but hang on to finish 5th...

[Chief Rum]

Heh...typical hardly mention hoops all day and then make a run while I went to go work out.

Look, I don't know hoops' allegiance. He may very well be a wolf. But just from the conversations I have had with him, he doesn't vibe like a wolf. I have seen a lot of mentions about him not being around as much and that being suspicious, but it's the truth that he's busy as heck at work. He's told me that in PMs, too, and hoops sn't the kind of guy to lie a out RL stuff to hide as a wolf. Like I said, he could very well be a wolf, but if the only reason some have is that he isn't around, u guys are barking up the wrong tree.

Plus, Pass has exhibited about as poor logical and argumentative skills in this game as I have ever seen in a player in a single game. If he took me to a sunrise and told me the sun exists, I am not sure I would buy it right now; that's how much cred he has. So following him onto hoops, I can't see the logic there.

As for the current other candidates, whatever his other qualities, I don't think Pass plays this way as a wolf. I have already pointed out how nutty it would be to see ntn as a wolf with the way Day 1 went. And I have had a good vibe from Danny all game. None of these choices really work for me, although Danny is very good as a wild hiding as a villager, and his actions, if not his words, have struck me as more suspicious than the other candidates.

It's just for vibe reasons, but my gut says to look closer at PF (who just did a driveby vote), cougar has seemed aittle off, and GE isn't as active as I recall him being.

[hoopsguy]

BTW, props to Chief Rum for putting together plans for today's winning leg - I didn't even have a chance to look at them until after the deadline today.

I'll be interested in picking EF's brain after the game about how different teams attacked this portion of the game. I'm surprised we are doing as well in this part given the varied challenges so far.

[mauchow]

Danny and mauboy1 come into view... They look frustrated and tired but hang on to finish 5th...

NO! NOT OUR ANKLES!!!

[EagleFan]

Lathum and The Jackal are still racing against saldana and MartinD...

It looks like a very close race but...

Lathum and The Jackal make it to the mat just minutes before saldana and MartinD are seen arguing as they get to the mat.

Lathum and The Jackal are 6th...


saldana and MartinD, you are the last team to arrive.

I am sorry to tell you but you have been eliminated from the race.

[EagleFan]

saldana is seen yelling at MartinD as they walk away from the camera. Before they even get out of the frae they are going their own way.

"You couldn't stop looking at Chief Rum saldana is heard screaming at MartinD!!!"

"I thought that was always your fantasy she is heard yelling back..."

[GoldenEagle]

Crimson Fox has been handling all of the Amazing Race stuff for our team. He has done an Amazing job.

[EagleFan]

saldana and MartinD are now both completely out of the game.

[hoopsguy]

The problem with the candidates you mention, Chief, is that
- GE is seer scanned (by proxy from teammate)
- Cougar put a pretty tough vote on Mauboy on Day 1
- PackerFanatic was the first vote on Mauboy on Day 1, and it just seems really messy for two of them to vote him among his first 3 votes

There are quite a few logical/analytical players left in the game - I'm not sure if that is because the wolves were seer-hunting (most likely) or are using them as cover because they have 1-2 of those type of players among their number (possible), but I don't think that today is a particularly good day to "take out the quiet one". I think it is a day to be bold, and try to take control of the game.

I just wish I had a little more time to have really been able to drive that idea throughout the thread today and seen how people reacted.

[hoopsguy]

Also, I really wish that the people who are villagers that are removed from the werewolf part of the game (but are cleared villagers) would take an active role in the conversations. We know that you don't have a werewolf agenda .... that your sole interest is catching wolves. That gives you a bully pulpit, to some extent. I'll certainly listen to you more than I will to players whose allegiances I question (unrevealed players).

I'm not sure how many of those guys remain, but my sense has been that people out of WW have somewhat lost interest in helping the rest of us catch wolves. Just because you don't have a vote doesn't mean you don't have a voice. Post away, help us win the game, and take credit for your contributions.

[EagleFan]

As of post 1356:

Danny 4 - Autumn (1218), JAG (1245), hoopsguy (1294), mckerney (1342)
hoopsguy 3 - Danny (1314), Passacaglia (1316), PackerFanatic (1324)
Passacaglia 2 - cougarfreak (1288), ntndeacon (1293)
ntndeacon 1 - GoldenEagle (1297)

[bhlloy]

For me, Pass has a questionable vote on day 1 and I'd like to see the voting tighten up a bit today. I'm certain ntn is villager after day 1, I don't see any way that he's up against mauboy if he's a wolf. For now

Vote Pass

[Passacaglia]

Also, I really wish that the people who are villagers that are removed from the werewolf part of the game (but are cleared villagers) would take an active role in the conversations. We know that you don't have a werewolf agenda .... that your sole interest is catching wolves. That gives you a bully pulpit, to some extent. I'll certainly listen to you more than I will to players whose allegiances I question (unrevealed players).

I'm not sure how many of those guys remain, but my sense has been that people out of WW have somewhat lost interest in helping the rest of us catch wolves. Just because you don't have a vote doesn't mean you don't have a voice. Post away, help us win the game, and take credit for your contributions.

Agreed on that -- big props to CrimsonFox for staying engaged in this game.

[Danny]

The problem with the candidates you mention, Chief, is that
- GE is seer scanned (by proxy from teammate)
- Cougar put a pretty tough vote on Mauboy on Day 1
- PackerFanatic was the first vote on Mauboy on Day 1, and it just seems really messy for two of them to vote him among his first 3 votes

There are quite a few logical/analytical players left in the game - I'm not sure if that is because the wolves were seer-hunting (most likely) or are using them as cover because they have 1-2 of those type of players among their number (possible), but I don't think that today is a particularly good day to "take out the quiet one". I think it is a day to be bold, and try to take control of the game.

I just wish I had a little more time to have really been able to drive that idea throughout the thread today and seen how people reacted.

FWIW, I agree with Hoops about being bold. And the fact that we can still post if lynched as a villager is more reason why going after a high profile player isn't necessarily a bad idea. Hopefully Hoops and I arent both villagers in this scenario though.

[CrimsonFox]

Yeah I was gonna say, I think this is the most I've ever talked in a game. THen again I suspect that it's because I don't have to worry anymore about being voted a wolf for making a joke. *glares at Jackal :) *

[GoldenEagle]

UNVOTE NTNDEACON

VOTE DANNY

[CrimsonFox]

Please for the love of God don't make this a tie vote.

[hoopsguy]

Yep, if I'm the lynch today I'll go all Obi Wan Kenobi for the remainder of the game :) Doesn't mean I want to get taken out today, but I will follow my own advice if my lynching does come to pass.

[Danny]

Why vote Pass there? That basically forces him to unvote hoops and vote me for self-defense. You might as well vote me there.

[GoldenEagle]

My vote had to go somewhere and I don't think we need a tie today. I had the gut feeling on Danny from the start, but it is so risky to do today. I really should have pushed harder for ntn earlier in the day.

[Passacaglia]

Why vote Pass there? That basically forces him to unvote hoops and vote me for self-defense. You might as well vote me there.

But wouldn't you then just do the same thing?

[Danny]

At least I used up my remaining energy today and can still help find a wolf tomorrow.

[Chief Rum]

I need to put a vote in, and it's too late to drum up a new candidate. I'm going with my gut--I don't think hoops is a wolf. And while I like Danny's play, he's the most suspicious of those on the block left, IMO. I don't think I would normally vote him, with what he's done so far, but we're down to two, really.

VOTE DANNY

[EagleFan]

As of post 1369:

Danny 6 - Autumn (1218), JAG (1245), hoopsguy (1294), mckerney (1342), GoldenEagle (1362), Chief Rum (1369)
hoopsguy 3 - Danny (1314), Passacaglia (1316), PackerFanatic (1324)
Passacaglia 3 - cougarfreak (1288), ntndeacon (1293), bhlloy (1358)

[Danny]

But wouldn't you then just do the same thing?

Yes, which basically helps Hoops become a non-candidate.

[Danny]

I have to say, if I was a wolf, there is no way I am up by 3 votes right now.

[EagleFan]

I'll post the race standings and next leg after sorting out the lynch and night orders.

[bhlloy]

Danny - not my intention, Pass is by far the least trustworthy of the 3 IMO.

[Danny]

I still get to contribute, but Jag might be a person to consider for tomorrow. He's really stayed out of things so far.

[hoopsguy]

I have to say, if I was a wolf, there is no way I am up by 3 votes right now.

I thought very hard about switching between you and Pass right here to put it back in play because of the vote movement. But in the end, I didn't have the courage to go against my original belief and I didn't think there was enough time left anyway.

Here's hoping I was right at the start of the day.

[EagleFan]

a minute until deadline

[CrimsonFox]

hoops I don't know about and Pass is , as you say, bipolar.

[Danny]

I thought very hard about switching between you and Pass right here to put it back in play because of the vote movement. But in the end, I didn't have the courage to go against my original belief and I didn't think there was enough time left anyway.

Here's hoping I was right at the start of the day.

Nope :p

[EagleFan]

deadline

[EagleFan]

As you recover from the stress of the day you start to ponder who may be a mole. Danny stands out to many and you begin to question him.

Soon he admits that he no longer cares much about the race. You have talked him out.

You find out that Danny was....


A vanilla villager

[hoopsguy]

Well, Danny - I welcome your thoughts the rest of the way and I'm sorry for my contributions towards a bad lynch today.

[mauchow]

But we were going to make the top 5 in the race so I could get another roll of film! Damn it.

[GoldenEagle]

Man. Another tough day. Tommorow the ratio will be presumably 7:3.

[EagleFan]

Later that day you see that bhlloy is wearing that familiar t-shirt. He has been talked out by the moles.

bhlloy was a vanilla villager.

[EagleFan]

bhlloy is completely out of the game.

[Passacaglia]

sheesh

[Danny]

Hmmm, interesting kill. We now know for sure that GE could only be the cunning wolf.

[Autumn]

Damn. Well, at least the wolves cleared up the bhlloy thing for us.

This has been a hard game to figure out, for some reason. I guess the easy reveals of the first two wolves, and some runaway votes, have helped but not given us much to go on. I'm quite unsure where to go next.

[hoopsguy]

Assuming I'm not the night-kill tomorrow, which I think is a very low probability given today's vote, I'm going to have a load of time to participate during Day 6. Hoping for a fun day with some good conversation. I think today's vote may be one that has some value as well - all in all, I feel fairly good about the group of voters on Pass today.

I'm guessing the wolves played very close to the vest today, given the outcome and the lack of votes heading into the final hour.

[CrimsonFox]

What I was thinking too Danny.

[hoopsguy]

Yep, color me surprised at taking out bhlloy with the night kill. I don't think the trust for him was exactly uniform.

[Danny]

Man. Another tough day. Tommorow the ratio will be presumably 7:3.

Which means we can likely only afford one more bad lynch.

[cougarfreak]

Well that sucks

[Danny]

This has been a hard game to figure out, for some reason. I guess the easy reveals of the first two wolves, and some runaway votes, have helped but not given us much to go on. I'm quite unsure where to go next.

Yes, this is huge. Generally you gain most of your useful information from lynching wolves in meaningful votes. While we have caught two wolves, neither gave us a whole lot to work with. About all we have is day 1.

[CrimsonFox]

I just realized that mau/Danny probably used ALL 5 of their aggression points on cougarfreak/packerfan :D

[EagleFan]

Race Standings
1st - Team Ten
2nd - Team Five (+0:05)
3rd - Team Eight (+1:40)
4th - Team Four (+2:50)
5th - Team Six (+5:15)
6th - Team Three (+5:25)

[Danny]

Yep, color me surprised at taking out bhlloy with the night kill. I don't think the trust for him was exactly uniform.

Based on what I saw, I'd actually say there's a decent chance none of the three vote getters were wolves. I have really avoided him so far, but I want to take a closer look at JAG. On day 1, he had two early votes from Autumn and I (now a confirmed villager) and no one else ever followed up on that and instead votes went toward CR and NTN to run against Mau.

[GoldenEagle]

Hmmm, interesting kill. We now know for sure that GE could only be the cunning wolf.

Wait...what? How does this mean that I could only be the cunning wolf? I am not sure why the wolves would take out a player that there is some question about. Taking out either me or bholly was a mistake. The only thing I can figure is that they are trying to frame me as the cunning wolf. I hope the village does not fall for that trap. If so, things are going to look pretty grim.

I have been on ntn for the last couple of days. Does that mean anything I am not sure. I have tried to stress that ntn was the safe lynch. But I am not sure we can go down that road tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

So, since we have a bunch of people around now - want to get started on the Day 6 conversation earlier rather than later?

My trust levels for Autumn, JAG, and Chief Rum are all on the decline at this point.

I won't be considering a vote for GE at this point - assuming 3 wolves left and he can only be cunning. Would be pretty damn lousy luck for us that the seer gets two scans, reveals to his partner (scan one) and the other scan is the cunning wolf. I'll take higher probability plays for Day 6, thank you.

I really want to understand the NTN stuff from Day 1, but I think we're past the point of "lynch him to learn about earlier days" ... today was the day to do that, if we were going to go that route.

I would add Pass to my list of candidates that I mistrust right now, probably right with Autumn + JAG. If/when I go on my post review session, those will be the guys I'm looking at the hardest initially.

[mauchow]

Oh, man we are WAY back.

[Passacaglia]

Wait...what? How does this mean that I could only be the cunning wolf? I am not sure why the wolves would take out a player that there is some question about. Taking out either me or bholly was a mistake. The only thing I can figure is that they are trying to frame me as the cunning wolf. I hope the village does not fall for that trap. If so, things are going to look pretty grim.

I have been on ntn for the last couple of days. Does that mean anything I am not sure. I have tried to stress that ntn was the safe lynch. But I am not sure we can go down that road tomorrow.

I think he means that the only wolf you could be is the cunning (i.e. bhlloy was not lying about the fact that you were scanned).

[Danny]

He also put a key second vote on me and was basically absent from any meaningful discussion. He also seemed to be setting me up for todays lynch yesterday before the results were revealed as if he know what the results would be. I really wish I would have looked at him more today earlier.

[CrimsonFox]

Wait...what? How does this mean that I could only be the cunning wolf? I am not sure why the wolves would take out a player that there is some question about. Taking out either me or bholly was a mistake. The only thing I can figure is that they are trying to frame me as the cunning wolf. I hope the village does not fall for that trap. If so, things are going to look pretty grim.

I have been on ntn for the last couple of days. Does that mean anything I am not sure. I have tried to stress that ntn was the safe lynch. But I am not sure we can go down that road tomorrow.

No, you misunderstand. He's saying that the only way you could be a wolf is if you are the cunning, not that the only thing you could be is the cunning wolf (as opposed to being a villager). Reason is because bhlloy said you were scanned as a villager by DV.

Your answer though is weird.

[Danny]

Wait...what? How does this mean that I could only be the cunning wolf? I am not sure why the wolves would take out a player that there is some question about. Taking out either me or bholly was a mistake. The only thing I can figure is that they are trying to frame me as the cunning wolf. I hope the village does not fall for that trap. If so, things are going to look pretty grim.

I have been on ntn for the last couple of days. Does that mean anything I am not sure. I have tried to stress that ntn was the safe lynch. But I am not sure we can go down that road tomorrow.

You're misreading it. I'm not saying you have to be the cunning wolf. I am saying you could only be the cunning wolf, meaning it's impossible you are one of the two other wolves. As Hoops said, it means lynching you is a bad percentage play and there is no way you should be getting votes.

[Danny]

Hoops, what page was the day 1 vote log you posted? I want to take a look at it again.

[GoldenEagle]

Ha. Ok. Apologies for the misunderstanding.

[JAG]

Bah. I need to take a fresh look at things for tomorrow, but sorry Danny. Feel free to toss some "I told you so's" my way since I've been on your case since yesterday.

[EagleFan]

When you are allowed to begin you will start in Dubai and travel to Jamaica. From there...

You have a clue to the Roadblock.
Who likes it spicy? Requires Eating.


You have a clue to the Detour.

Sink it: Sink 5 putts from set different distances. Requires physical and mental.
- Players alternate taking a shot.
- Continue from the same distance until making a putt then move to the next distance.
- If more than one team is at the same distance they must alternate between teams.

Scan It: Parasail along the shore and spot the next clue. Requires Mental.
- Both players must take at least one turn parasailing along the coast.
- Once they spot the location of the next clue and they have both gone up one time they may continue.

Pit Stop - Dunn's River Falls

[hoopsguy]

Hoops, what page was the day 1 vote log you posted? I want to take a look at it again.

Not sure, but I have it in Notepad so here it is again.


164 Autumn votes JAG 1-0
169 PF votes Mauboy 1-1 JAG/Mau
170 Lathum votes Rum 1-1-1 JAG/Mau/Rum
172 Mau votes Rum 2-1-1 Rum over JAG/Mau
175 Danny votes JAG 2-2-1 Rum/JAG over Mau
178 JAG votes Autumn 2-2-1-1 Rum/JAG over Mau/Autumn
181 bhl votes Mau 2-2-2-1 Rum/JAG/Mau over Autumn
* 182 MartinD (wolf) post about vote concentration early, usually more spread out *
185 MartinD votes Mau 3-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
186 Rum votes Mau 4-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
187 mck votes Mau 5-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
189 Rum unvotes Mau 4-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
193 Danny unvotes JAG, votes NTN 4-2-1-1-1 Mau over Rum over Autumn/JAG/NTN
194 Jackal votes NTN 4-2-2-1-1 Mau over Rum/NTN over Autumn/JAG
200 Hoops votes NTN 4-3-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
205 Zinto votes Chief 4-3-3-1-1 Mau over NTN/Rum over Autumn/JAG


Note #1 - MartinD is almost certainly not popular with his wolf teammates after sending the "wolf" PM to Saldana and putting a wolf out in front of votes.

Note #2 -Mau votes for Chief early (first to two votes)

Note #3 - Early votes on Mau = PF, bhl, Rum, mck (Rum pulls his fairly quickly)

Note #4 - Danny offers NTN as a new candidate, is followed by two villagers (Jackal + me, although I'm not revealed as one yet)

Note #5 - Zinto puts the vote on Chief instead of Mau or NTN, who are the two leaders. Says in #205 he wants 3 candidates.

206 NTN votes Chief 4-4-3-1-1 Mau/Rum over NTN over Autumn/JAG
212 Pass votes NTN 4-4-4-1-1 Mau/Rum/NTN over Autumn/JAG
213 Chief votes NTN 5-4-4-1-1 NTN over Mau/Rum over Autumn/JAG
219 Crimson votes Mau 5-5-4-1-1 NTN/Mau over Rum over Autumn/JAG
222 NTN unvotes Chief, votes Mau 6-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG

Note #6 - this looks good for NTN, in my mind. If he was a wolf with Mau then he would likely have held his vote in the 5-5-4 setup with hopes to get some movement on Chief. But instead he pushes Mau into lead and CR 3 back. Seems more villager survival instinct than conceding wolf in my mind, barring crazy 3 wolf run-off scenario (have to almost entirely discount getting this lucky).

224 - DV votes Mau. 7-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
226 - Cougar votes Mau 8-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
234 - Mau unvotes Chief, votes NTN 8-6-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
235 - GE votes NTN, 8-7-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
237 - Saldana votes NTN, 8-8-2-1-1 Mau/NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG


Note #7 - good thing Saldana + GE have some checks in the good book (Sal gave us wolf, GE seer scanned, based on 2nd hand info) with these votes

240 - Lathum unvotes Rum, votes NTN 9-8-1-1-1 NTN over Mau over Autumn/JAG/Rum
242 - Chief unvotes NTN, votes Mau 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/JAG/Rum

Note #8 - big swing vote here by Chief, assuming that NTN = villager. About 2 hours and 15 minutes to deadline here.

* 251 - Mauboy's "if only I could see the future" post with 1 hour 40 minutes until lynch deadline *
258 - Autumn unvotes JAG, votes Mau 10-8-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum
* 262 - I ask if people missed post #251, why no one is reacting to this. 1 hour 10 minutes until lynch deadline *
264 - NTN unvotes Mau, votes JAG 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG
277 - Danny unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-7-1-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG/Crimson
279 - Mau unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-6-2-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Crimson over Autumn/Rum/JAG
280 - Rum unvotes Mau, votes JAG 8-6-2-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Crimson/JAG over Autumn/Rum
290 - Autumn unvotes Mau 7-6-2-2-1-1- Mau over NTN over Crimson/JAG over Autumn/Rum
291 - Autumn votes JAG 7-6-3-2-1-1- Mau over NTN over JAG over Crimson over Autumn/Rum
301 - Saldana unvotes NTN, votes MartinD 7-5-3-2-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over JAG over Crimson over Autumn/Rum/MartinD
* 301 is the post where Saldana reveals that MartinD forwarded his PM with info on being a wolf. 25 minutes before deadline. *
304 - Danny changes vote to MartinD
305 - Autumn changes vote to MartinD
315 - mck changes vote to MartinD
318 - PF changes vote to MartinD
322 - DV changes vote to MartinD
327 - Cougar changes vote to MartinD
330 - Mau changes vote to MartinD
337 - NTN changes vote to MartinD
340 - Lathum changes vote to MartinD

[CrimsonFox]

Post 1249, Page 25 :)

Here are my impressions on people, which are almost entirely shaped by the Day 1 vote. It is important to note that if NTN was a wolf that would dramatically change the (relative) trust dynamics.

I would like to take some time to dig through yesterday's posts, but I'm out of time for right now. Don't know how much I'll be on between now and deadline, other than to drop a vote before heading out for the day.

1. Autumn - avoided Mau + NTN on D1
3. Passacaglia - non-factor on D1 (NTN vote creating 3 way tie)
4. mckerney - early vote on Mau
5. PackerFanatic - first vote on Mau, would wolves had had 2 of 3 first votes on him?
8. JAG
10. ntndeacon - forced into defensive D1
11. bhlloy - purportedly scanned by DV, early vote on Mau
12. cougarfreak - key vote on Mau
15. Danny - introduced NTN as candidate, don't think that NTN/Danny are likely to be wolves together
16. Chief Rum - Mau voted for him early D1, somewhat erratic D1 voting (on/off candidates)
17. hoopsguy - I know I'm a villager
19. GoldenEagle - purportedly scanned by DV

[GoldenEagle]

I think mckerney's vote is interesting as well. He placed the critical fourth vote on Danny, breaking a tie at the moment. No one has really mentioned him as a wolf at this point. I am not sure if he has even got any votes. I have never played in a game with him before, so I am not exactly sure of his style.

But I think based on this vote alone, we should bring him into the discussion.

[hoopsguy]

CF, one thing in the one you posted ... I forgot to double back and put in thoughts on JAG. But his D1 stuff wasn't great. Early vote on Autumn, never changed until Saldana thing came out if I'm reading that post history correctly.

I let myself be steered a bit by him because I enjoy playing with him so much when he is a villager. We almost always seem to be on the same wavelength in attacking the data, even if it is in a slightly different order. I'm guilty of the same with Chief Rum, probably moreso this time around because of being teammates this game and the success we are having in the race portion of the game.

[hoopsguy]

I think mckerney's vote is interesting as well. He placed the critical fourth vote on Danny, breaking a tie at the moment. No one has really mentioned him as a wolf at this point. I am not sure if he has even got any votes. I have never played in a game with him before, so I am not exactly sure of his style.

But I think based on this vote alone, we should bring him into the discussion.

For that vote to have meaning, you have to be making the assumption that either Pass or I are a wolf. Otherwise, the wolves didn't give a damn which person took the votes in what order. Other than trying to avoid too much attention when casting the votes.

[Danny]

Looking at the first 7 or so votes from day 1, I have to say JAG looks really bad as long as Autumn is a villager. With the votes 1-1-1, Mau voted CR over JAG. JAG voted Autumn when it was 2-1-1. At the times those with votes were Jag, Mau and CR. Maybe he votes CR if he's a wolf there, but maybe not if those with votes is 2/3 wolves. In that situation I could see a wolf trying to bring in another villager.

I thing I screwed up today by not looking more at that voting log and overlooking JAG. Especially when his posts yesterday focusing on me, seemed like he knew what the result of the lynch was going to be.

[JAG]

Based on what I saw, I'd actually say there's a decent chance none of the three vote getters were wolves. I have really avoided him so far, but I want to take a closer look at JAG. On day 1, he had two early votes from Autumn and I (now a confirmed villager) and no one else ever followed up on that and instead votes went toward CR and NTN to run against Mau.

That's fair, to be frank I deserve it for my part in this lynch.

Looking at the D1 stuff, here is where the block of voting was between me getting 2 and dropping back to 1:

175 Danny votes JAG 2-2-1 Rum/JAG over Mau
178 JAG votes Autumn 2-2-1-1 Rum/JAG over Mau/Autumn
181 bhl votes Mau 2-2-2-1 Rum/JAG/Mau over Autumn
* 182 MartinD (wolf) post about vote concentration early, usually more spread out *
185 MartinD votes Mau 3-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
186 Rum votes Mau 4-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
187 mck votes Mau 5-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
189 Rum unvotes Mau 4-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
193 Danny unvotes JAG, votes NTN 4-2-1-1-1 Mau over Rum over Autumn/JAG/NTN

The 185-186-187 votes were basically all at the same time, so after your second vote on me, there were really only bhlloy and the 3 votes at the same time, before you and CR came off mau and I. At that point there were two people with multiple votes and a couple people jumped on your vote on ntn which left three people with multiple votes and Autumn and I with 1 each. Since you as a confirmed villager are the one that came off me, I don't think it looks as bad as you may have originally thought without looking at it.

[GoldenEagle]

For that vote to have meaning, you have to be making the assumption that either Pass or I are a wolf. Otherwise, the wolves didn't give a damn which person took the votes in what order. Other than trying to avoid too much attention when casting the votes.

At this point, based on the math, that is a decent assumption. Mckerney did vote for mau on day 1. I believe he did this right before mau revealed as the fake seer. I am working under the assumption that the wolves knew mau was in trouble and it gave them spot to hide votes right before the fake reveal.

We really put the wolves up against in day 1. There has to be something helpful in there. We just need to dig it out.

[CrimsonFox]

CF, one thing in the one you posted ... I forgot to double back and put in thoughts on JAG. But his D1 stuff wasn't great. Early vote on Autumn, never changed until Saldana thing came out if I'm reading that post history correctly.

I let myself be steered a bit by him because I enjoy playing with him so much when he is a villager. We almost always seem to be on the same wavelength in attacking the data, even if it is in a slightly different order. I'm guilty of the same with Chief Rum, probably moreso this time around because of being teammates this game and the success we are having in the race portion of the game.

Regarding JAG, the few times I've played with him, he's very loud and talkative. Quiet now. Hardly remembered he was still playing. He's gone all ntn on us.

[The Jackal]

1) I get screwed by coincidence.
2) Lathum gets screwed by hidden mechanics.
3) Our team gets screwed by multiple straight days of having aggression used against us.

Whoo.

[Danny]

"* 182 MartinD (wolf) post about vote concentration early, usually more spread out *"

At the time the vote was 2-2-2-1 me/Chief/mau/Autumn. Shortly after his comment he pushed mau to 3 votes (trying to look good on a potential lynch target? Looking to make a late move to save him?) If we take his comment seriously that he was concerned about another candidate that had a vote on them at the time and wanted a new candidate, then I would look at Chief and Autumn, probably leaning more towards Autumn because mau put a second vote on Chief which seems a weird wolf move to make at that time. The only wolfy vibe this game I've had about Autumn is when he was trying to make sense of the D1 voting this morning and left me really confused with what he was saying (I can give him a break for not having caffeine in his system, or maybe it was my own lack). Other than that, he seems like someone who's been trying to figure things out. So I'm not 100% sure what to think just yet.

So after that there was a four vote run on mau, though really the three by Chief, mckerny, and MartinD were close together (the other one was over an hour beforehand). After the run on mau, Danny introduces ntn as a candidate. I find that worth some suspicion after the comment from Martin. Another couple hoops' thoughts here:

"222 NTN unvotes Chief, votes Mau 6-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG

Note #6 - this looks good for NTN, in my mind. If he was a wolf with Mau then he would likely have held his vote in the 5-5-4 setup with hopes to get some movement on Chief. But instead he pushes Mau into lead and CR 3 back. Seems more villager survival instinct than conceding wolf in my mind, barring crazy 3 wolf run-off scenario (have to almost entirely discount getting this lucky)."

Hard to argue with that.

"242 - Chief unvotes NTN, votes Mau 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/JAG/Rum

Note #8 - big swing vote here by Chief, assuming that NTN = villager. About 2 hours and 15 minutes to deadline here."

Also seems reasonable.

"258 - Autumn unvotes JAG, votes Mau 10-8-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum
* 262 - I ask if people missed post #251, why no one is reacting to this. 1 hour 10 minutes until lynch deadline *
264 - NTN unvotes Mau, votes JAG 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG
277 - Danny unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-7-1-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG/Crimson
279 - Mau unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-6-2-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Crimson over Autumn/Rum/JAG"

In my opinion, this sequence again looks suspicious for Danny. Assuming he didn't want to vote for the 'seer', with three other people out there with one vote to vote for (also assuming he wouldn't go with ntn because he wanted a second candidate), he picks another candidate that ends up being a wolf target (although I didn't look at the timing of this and CF's comments that may have led them to believe he was a seer, though mau was quick to jump on the vote after it happened) as they presumably hunted for the real seer.

So anyway, here we are 30 minutes from deadline, so this isn't really helpful for the vote today. How was Danny not a serious candidate for today again?

This is the post I am referring to. I got the impression he was setting me up for being a prime lynch candidate today. And this was posted 30 minutes before deadline when I was not a candidate at all and we had no idea whether Zinto was going to turn up wolf or not (I had a key vote on him). It was as if he knew Zinto would turn up villager and that I would be a good person to focus on for today.

In fairness to him though, his next post stated this was the only chance he had to post his thoughts.

[The Jackal]

I pointed out on day 2 that JAG looked suspicious if mau was a wolf because of what happened on day one. But I think everyone ignored me because almost everyone thought I was a wolf at the time. :)

[Danny]

I pointed out on day 2 that JAG looked suspicious if mau was a wolf because of what happened on day one. But I think everyone ignored me because almost everyone thought I was a wolf at the time. :)

Yeah I remember that now. JAG has been under the radar big time. Last night I was planning on looking at him for today, but again, I hardly noticed him and focused on other people.

[JAG]

Looking at the first 7 or so votes from day 1, I have to say JAG looks really bad as long as Autumn is a villager. With the votes 1-1-1, Mau voted CR over JAG. JAG voted Autumn when it was 2-1-1. At the times those with votes were Jag, Mau and CR. Maybe he votes CR if he's a wolf there, but maybe not if those with votes is 2/3 wolves. In that situation I could see a wolf trying to bring in another villager.

I thing I screwed up today by not looking more at that voting log and overlooking JAG. Especially when his posts yesterday focusing on me, seemed like he knew what the result of the lynch was going to be.

Well, I'll just say this about it. The main problem is it took me so long into the day to get to the analysis. I wanted to make my analysis based on what I was seeing with the data without influence of the voting at the time. I thought it pointed to you as the most likely candidate as a wolf. After that, I had to deal with the situation that was on-hand for the voting, as a vote for you would've been a complete waste. Looking at what I saw, I thought CR and ntn were low on the list of looking wolfy, so that left Zinto for me to go with.

[The Jackal]

It would make sense for JAG being the cunning or brutal, which are presumably both left, or at least one of them, since mau was just a regular wolf when the run was started on him away from JAG/CR/NTN, but I think NTN is just as good a person to look at. I'd have to go back and look and see who led the charges on mau now that we know more about people's allegiances.

[hoopsguy]

OK, back to the grind tomorrow. Need to get some sleep here tonight ... I'm clearly getting old calling it a night this early, but I'm tired.

[Danny]

Jackal, what worries me is that after I put up ntn on day 1, Mau was strong in jumping on that train. Would he do that as a wolf knowing he was going to be fake revealing? He had no idea Martin was going to make the mistake he did and if that didnt happen, when he fake revealed, the lynch would have swung to ntn.

[JAG]

Regarding JAG, the few times I've played with him, he's very loud and talkative. Quiet now. Hardly remembered he was still playing. He's gone all ntn on us.

I can't argue with that either, I've definitely contributed less than I would've liked to this point. I can only say that I've been a lot more busy out of the game than I was during the Vegas game as well as spending time trying to figure out a way to get to the bloody Falkland Islands (mckerney can relay my PM regarding that).

Anyway, I'm off for now.

[The Jackal]

Worries you meaning you're more trusting of NTN because of that?

[The Jackal]

I'm off to watch some tv and go to sleep, I'll try and check back in tomorrow to provide some outsider type insights. Glad to see that when I check in there's 1+ pages for me to catch up on, even if I'm bitter about the way the game's going! :)

[Danny]

Right now, I think the three people have the strongest evidence against them being a wolf are GoldenEagle, Chief Rum and NTN. Yes, it possible that on day 1 the wolves really went after eachother in hopes of setting themselves up for the future, but I think this had to put those two above the others in the game, for now.

[The Jackal]

Unless GE is the cunning I think he's in pretty good standing. He came out a couple of times and said he didn't think I was a wolf which might be part of the reason why DV scanned him (since DV said multiple times he was pretty sure that I was a wolf). Though if he was a wolf, he'd know definitively that I wasn't and be able to brush that aside. But he looks solid.

[CrimsonFox]

Jackal, what worries me is that after I put up ntn on day 1, Mau was strong in jumping on that train. Would he do that as a wolf knowing he was going to be fake revealing? He had no idea Martin was going to make the mistake he did and if that didnt happen, when he fake revealed, the lynch would have swung to ntn.

mau this game has been all loose cannon stuff. THere's been no plan of anything, he just says stuff, trying things he saw in the one other game he played. Doing the seer thing I do not believe was in tandem with the other wolves. Regarding the other wolves, I would think they more would have tried to distance themselves from him because of what he said/did.

However, would they actively put him up on the block if what he was saying/doing made them nervous? I can only see a pro making that kind of move. ANd even then I'm not sure.

[The Jackal]

FWIW CF, Mau isn't a rookie, he just hasn't played in a while. He played in a few games a couple years back.

[Danny]

The 7 players left are the following.

Hoops
Mckerney
Autumn
JAG
Packfanatic
CougarFreak
Passacaglia

Based on his reactions earlier, I don't have a bad read on Cougar. I also think the night kill of bh adds some trust to the other two Pass voters. I think Cougar is a poor vote right now.

I'd wager there were two wolves on me and one on Hoops today. Though it is possible Pass and Packer are both wolves who wanted to help make sure Hoops was a second candidate and not Pass.

I've also noticed Packer has been playing very tight lately which he tends to do as a wolf.

[Danny]

Actually, I take that back, Packer put the first vote on Mau. He's not the type to make that move as a wolf.

[Danny]

Right now the only three players without some evidence supporting them not being a wolf are JAG, Pass and Hoops. I think those are good choices to look for a wolf, though I would vote JAG if I had a vote.

[EagleFan]

As everyone sits around drinking you begin to sing...

Happy Birthday to you!
Happy Birthday to you!
Happy Birthday dear hoopsguy!
Happy Birthday to you!

[Autumn]

I haven't even had a chance to read this whole last page, just finished a project and have to get to bed. But I want to place a vote and get a fire under somebody. This is really just a placeholder, i hope to spend enough time in the morning to decide where to vote. But Mckerney is flying way under my radar, and I think we need to get more out of him if we're going to have anything to base votes on. I don't know at all if my analysis tomorrow will end up with me on him, but I don't want to just end up voting vocal players 'cause there's more to go on.

<b>VOTE MCKERNEY</b>

[EagleFan]

As of post 1438:

mckerney 1 - Autumn (1438)

[CrimsonFox]

Happy Birthday, Hot Hoops!

[ntndeacon]

Jackal, what worries me is that after I put up ntn on day 1, Mau was strong in jumping on that train. Would he do that as a wolf knowing he was going to be fake revealing? He had no idea Martin was going to make the mistake he did and if that didnt happen, when he fake revealed, the lynch would have swung to ntn.

And at the time I was for it too, which is why I went off mau. I had assumed that there was no way I was going to be saved by then even if a few did follow me on to JAG. at the time it was better me than a possible seer.

[ntndeacon]

Pass sorry I was unclear. yes you were the one I had mentioned to my partner as doing some thought provoking things.

[Passacaglia]

OK, back to the grind tomorrow. Need to get some sleep here tonight ... I'm clearly getting old calling it a night this early, but I'm tired.

I'm pretty sure I was already in bed when you posted this.

[Passacaglia]

Right now, I think the three people have the strongest evidence against them being a wolf are GoldenEagle, Chief Rum and NTN. Yes, it possible that on day 1 the wolves really went after eachother in hopes of setting themselves up for the future, but I think this had to put those two above the others in the game, for now.

Danny, now that I know you're good, can we talk about Chief? Is his goodness in your mind just based on the fact that he voted mau around the same time as Martin did (the first time he voted, that is), and the wolves wouldn't put two votes on the same wolf?

[JAG]

Alright, I have some time before work and then my time the rest of the day will be on and off. I understand I'll be under the microscope today, so I'm going to put out all my thoughts on the people left for the sake of transparency so people know where I stand on things. I am going to assume there are three wolves left worst-case scenario and so we're at 7-3, which means we can only afford one more bad lynch barring some unforeseen mechanic. Based on where I have people trusted (CR+ntn much higher than hoops+Pass), I am going to assume we had three villagers on the block D4 but possibly not D5. So taking a look at those left, most to least trusted:

CR: Odd voting on D1, bad vote on Danny D5 (I know, those in glass houses...), but his reasoning on ntn yesterday was sound and mau put vote #2 on him D1. That just seems way out there for a wolf on wolf move.

ntn: D1 his vote switch from CR (who I feel pretty sure about as good) to mau looks very good, and had a D5 vote on Pass. He's been quiet but what else is new? I can't see why I'd vote for him.

PF: Vote #1 on mau D1, again that seems pretty out there for a wolf on wolf move, had a vote on hoops D5. Otherwise has been quiet, but little reason to suspect him.

cougarfreak: Had a big vote on mau D1 and voted for Pass D5. Like PF, he's been pretty quiet and at this point I don't see myself looking here.

GE: His voting has been terrible (I don't like his crusade against ntn, the votes against ntn D1, D4, and D5 seem poorly reasoned, and the D5 switch to Danny looks bad also). However since we have confirmation he's scanned good, I don't see this as a good percentage play.

mckerney: Had a reasonably good vote on mau D1 though it looks better because of the number of people that jumped on him at the same time. The D5 vote on Danny brings him down as well as being way under the radar. He's been a good partner though.

hoops: His voting record is poor (ntn D1, known villagers D4+D5). On the other hand, he and CR have had, IMO, the most accurate breakdown of what's been going on thus far. I've never played with hoops as wolf and I know he's a good one, so the fact he isn't lower is mostly based on vibe and that we're mostly seeing things the same way.

Pass: The D1 vote isn't too hot, the D5 vote doesn't seem so bad though. His stuff with Chief yesterday was annoying and distracting, but also came across as Pass being Pass so I tried to ignore it. No great trust for him at the moment, I will say it seems unlikely both he and hoops would be wolves with Pass' willingness to jump on hoops yesterday.

Autumn: Assuming I'm not voting in self-defense, this is where I'm leaning for my vote today. His D1 will obviously look worse to me than anyone else, but I also don't like the switch to mau after he basically came out as 'seer', I don't understand it. I don't like that he's been trying to make a case for CR as wolf because of him taking back the vote on mau and leaving out the best evidence for CR being cleared in mau putting vote #2 on Chief. I haven't poured over his previous posts but I think he was making a case for ntn which I don't think is realistic. Now knowing that Danny is a villager, I don't like how he jumped on my idea of saying he thought Danny was most suspicious for most of the day D4 then gave a reason why he thought Danny was ok, and then immediately voted Danny D5. Honestly, the best thing I can say about Autumn thus far is that he didn't come out and vote me right away today when as a wolf, it would've seemed like the obvious set-up after the past couple days.

So that's where I stand with things. I think it's most likely we'll find 2 if not 3 wolves on the bottom four people I listed.

[Danny]

Danny, now that I know you're good, can we talk about Chief? Is his goodness in your mind just based on the fact that he voted mau around the same time as Martin did (the first time he voted, that is), and the wolves wouldn't put two votes on the same wolf?

And Mau voted him as well early on day 1, so wolves voting each other if he's a wolf. Not unheard of, but not the most likely either.

[hoopsguy]

General question for the group - is there any reason at all that people should be more concerned about the "race" than the game of "werewolf". If not, I would be interested in having some discussion around actions so far this game pertaining to the race. Doing so might help me with my evaluation on my partner Chief, as well as help crystallize some voting decisions.

[hoopsguy]

Dola - I'm willing to be pretty open about what our team has been doing (and we are in first) if others are willing to share some details as well. I'm hoping to evaluate relative performances and better understand why teams are in the position they are.

If there is some wolf reward for being in first in the race I have inadvertently been aiding and abetting the enemy.

I don't necessarily think this is happening, but I want to rule it out. In an abstract sense, I'm surprised to be alive with Chief Rum on Day 6 and could use some help convincing myself that this is a good thing (ie - we're both villagers and just haven't fallen atop wolf priorities so far).

[Autumn]

Autumn: Assuming I'm not voting in self-defense, this is where I'm leaning for my vote today. His D1 will obviously look worse to me than anyone else, but I also don't like the switch to mau after he basically came out as 'seer', I don't understand it. I don't like that he's been trying to make a case for CR as wolf because of him taking back the vote on mau and leaving out the best evidence for CR being cleared in mau putting vote #2 on Chief. I haven't poured over his previous posts but I think he was making a case for ntn which I don't think is realistic. Now knowing that Danny is a villager, I don't like how he jumped on my idea of saying he thought Danny was most suspicious for most of the day D4 then gave a reason why he thought Danny was ok, and then immediately voted Danny D5. Honestly, the best thing I can say about Autumn thus far is that he didn't come out and vote me right away today when as a wolf, it would've seemed like the obvious set-up after the past couple days.

Let me address these things. Number one, I haven't made a case for NTN at all, so I think you must be thinking of someone else. I don't see much in either direction for NTN, other than that we'd learn about the day 1 vote.

I'm not discounting the "best evidence" for Chief being a villager. We've already seen Martin put the 2nd or 3rd vote on Mauboy, so I don't know why Mauboy putting a vote on Chief should be evidence of anything. There is better evidence for Chief being a villager than that, including his last switch from NTN to Mauboy.

Lastly, as I explained at the time, I did not notice Mauboy's "I see the future" post at the time. If you go back you'll see that I asked Mauboy to give more information if he was going to hint at a role at the last minute. I was not inclined to vote my teammate just because Mauboy was making a last second desperation move. When Mauboy didn't give any more details I voted him. When Danny or somebody pointed out the seer comment I moved my vote. You can see all that back in the thread.

I don't remember what you said about Danny yesterday, but I voted Danny simply for my own reasons. I was getting an off vibe from him watching his posts over the last couple days. That combined with the fact that he had a questionable vote Day 1 was why I voted him. I was trying to go with my gut since there are a number of people with suspect votes and I'm really unsure where to go.

[hoopsguy]

One last dola - need to update an earlier statement.


If there is some wolf reward for being in first in the race I have inadvertently been aiding and abetting the enemy.

Should be a may have been instead of "have" ... I don't know where Chief falls, but paranoia is starting to kick in.

[Passacaglia]

General question for the group - is there any reason at all that people should be more concerned about the "race" than the game of "werewolf". If not, I would be interested in having some discussion around actions so far this game pertaining to the race. Doing so might help me with my evaluation on my partner Chief, as well as help crystallize some voting decisions.

Personally, I don't think so. But then again, I'm biased since Zinto and I were the first ones eliminated, and I haven't been paying attention to it since then.

[Autumn]

Dola - I'm willing to be pretty open about what our team has been doing (and we are in first) if others are willing to share some details as well. I'm hoping to evaluate relative performances and better understand why teams are in the position they are.

If there is some wolf reward for being in first in the race I have inadvertently been aiding and abetting the enemy.

I don't necessarily think this is happening, but I want to rule it out. In an abstract sense, I'm surprised to be alive with Chief Rum on Day 6 and could use some help convincing myself that this is a good thing (ie - we're both villagers and just haven't fallen atop wolf priorities so far).

I'll say, I'm torn here. I agree that there may be something to learn from the race portion - for instance what you suggest, the wolves would be more likely to keep their teammates alive (although their kills have been pretty obvious and clear so far, so that's another rationale).

I'm torn because I'd like to win the race ;-) And I do think revealing info on effort spent, and strategies, might skew the race.

That said I will say the only thing that I've regarded as a possible clue from my team (NTN and I), is that at one point NTN suggested using our aggression to aid another team. The reasoning being creating an alliance, and hoping the other team would help us. We didn't end up doing that, due to my wariness of why he might want to do it. But the team he suggested was Chief and Hoops. That's been part of why I've cast a wary eye on those two. If one turned out bad I would then question NTN. Other than that, I think we have been performing as I would expect given our strategy and effort and skills.

[JAG]

I don't mind sharing so long as my partner doesn't mind, I don't think the info will be all that earth-shattering though. Other than him being alive so late in the game and a D5 vote on Danny that at least three villagers participated in (I think I forgot to factor this in my post above as a negative FWIW), I'm not sure what evidence you're seeing that makes CR a good candidate for today though.

[Autumn]

And JAG, no, I didn't jump on a vote for you. You're certainly someone I'm considering but basically the only point of suspicion I have on you is that you've been quieter than I remember you as a villager. You usually have a small number of posts, but they are always packed with very concise analysis that is usually spot-on. When someone pointed out that you've been more under the radar, I nodded in agreement. But I've been busier than normal too, so it's not much to go on. I suppose the fact that the votes on you didn't go anywhere Day 1 is another point.

I'm mostly trying to look at the wolf decisions and decide whether I think they have a JAG/Hoops/Chief type member or if they are more under the radar folks. A wolf team of ntn/mckerney would be hard to catch, especially if we keep going after the more vocal folk. I was leaning towards less veteran players earlier in the game, when they didn't kill Lathum. But now knowing Mauboy was a wolf, I'm thinking that might have been a veteran move.

[Autumn]

I don't mind sharing so long as my partner doesn't mind, I don't think the info will be all that earth-shattering though. Other than him being alive so late in the game and a D5 vote on Danny that at least three villagers participated in (I think I forgot to factor this in my post above as a negative FWIW), I'm not sure what evidence you're seeing that makes CR a good candidate for today though.

I'm not sure Chief is who I would vote for today, but there's certainly more to vote on than that. He had several suspicious looking votes on Day 1, and moreover a lot of vote movement as Mauboy rose and fell among the vote total. Let's also not forget that Mauboy "scanned" him as part of his reveal. While I would expect a veteran wolf to scan someone who is good, most likely, I consider it very possible that Mauboy tried to "clear" a fellow wolf there.

[JAG]

Let me address these things. Number one, I haven't made a case for NTN at all, so I think you must be thinking of someone else. I don't see much in either direction for NTN, other than that we'd learn about the day 1 vote.

I'm not discounting the "best evidence" for Chief being a villager. We've already seen Martin put the 2nd or 3rd vote on Mauboy, so I don't know why Mauboy putting a vote on Chief should be evidence of anything. There is better evidence for Chief being a villager than that, including his last switch from NTN to Mauboy.

Lastly, as I explained at the time, I did not notice Mauboy's "I see the future" post at the time. If you go back you'll see that I asked Mauboy to give more information if he was going to hint at a role at the last minute. I was not inclined to vote my teammate just because Mauboy was making a last second desperation move. When Mauboy didn't give any more details I voted him. When Danny or somebody pointed out the seer comment I moved my vote. You can see all that back in the thread.

I don't remember what you said about Danny yesterday, but I voted Danny simply for my own reasons. I was getting an off vibe from him watching his posts over the last couple days. That combined with the fact that he had a questionable vote Day 1 was why I voted him. I was trying to go with my gut since there are a number of people with suspect votes and I'm really unsure where to go.

Well, I can't really go back and look, but I'll take your word re: ntn as it would be silly to lie about it and with the Mau reveal. Your post actually me feel a bit better about you as it seems like we see more eye-to-eye than I originally thought.

[hoopsguy]

I don't mind sharing so long as my partner doesn't mind, I don't think the info will be all that earth-shattering though. Other than him being alive so late in the game and a D5 vote on Danny that at least three villagers participated in (I think I forgot to factor this in my post above as a negative FWIW), I'm not sure what evidence you're seeing that makes CR a good candidate for today though.

Call it creeping paranoia that we are both alive on Day 6, when I've been fairly active defending him throughout.

I don't consider him my number one candidate by any means, but I'm increasingly interested in understanding our overall success when I don't think we've gone over-the-top with effort/aggression.

[hoopsguy]

I'll say, I'm torn here. I agree that there may be something to learn from the race portion - for instance what you suggest, the wolves would be more likely to keep their teammates alive (although their kills have been pretty obvious and clear so far, so that's another rationale).

I'm torn because I'd like to win the race ;-) And I do think revealing info on effort spent, and strategies, might skew the race.

That said I will say the only thing that I've regarded as a possible clue from my team (NTN and I), is that at one point NTN suggested using our aggression to aid another team. The reasoning being creating an alliance, and hoping the other team would help us. We didn't end up doing that, due to my wariness of why he might want to do it. But the team he suggested was Chief and Hoops. That's been part of why I've cast a wary eye on those two. If one turned out bad I would then question NTN. Other than that, I think we have been performing as I would expect given our strategy and effort and skills.

I'm coming at this from the standpoint of the team who is winning the race. But if I've got my choice, I would rather win at werewolf than at the race. And I want to try and suss out if there is werewolf-type information to be learned from the race.

I think our team has as much, if not more, to lose in disclosing info on the racing stuff up to this point. We're giving you info on what we have left in the tank to hold our lead, which should allow other teams to better target us in terms of catching up.

[JAG]

I'm not sure Chief is who I would vote for today, but there's certainly more to vote on than that. He had several suspicious looking votes on Day 1, and moreover a lot of vote movement as Mauboy rose and fell among the vote total. Let's also not forget that Mauboy "scanned" him as part of his reveal. While I would expect a veteran wolf to scan someone who is good, most likely, I consider it very possible that Mauboy tried to "clear" a fellow wolf there.

I don't put much into the 'scan' as evidence since it was going to eventually come out that Mau was a wolf. With the wolves knowing they were going to be down two wolves early on, it would be really risky to try and "clear" one that would in the long run look suspicious, not to mention the real seer would probably give consideration to scanning him. If anything, I would think Chief as wolf would never sign off on a plan like that, so I could only buy that if youre willing to think Mau acted on his own.

[Autumn]

I don't put much into the 'scan' as evidence since it was going to eventually come out that Mau was a wolf. With the wolves knowing they were going to be down two wolves early on, it would be really risky to try and "clear" one that would in the long run look suspicious, not to mention the real seer would probably give consideration to scanning him. If anything, I would think Chief as wolf would never sign off on a plan like that, so I could only buy that if youre willing to think Mau acted on his own.

I think given mau's reveals, it's very easy to think that he was acting on his own. I'm quite sure a veteran wolf would have encouraged him to handle that situation differently, both the intitial reveal, and the later paparazzi reveal. Given the Martin error, Mauboy's sloppy reveal, I'm willing to believe he may have slipped up and tried to get heat off of Chief, who had also been in the race day one.

I think I will go back and look at day 1 from the view point of 2 (or 3) wolves being in the race. I know we always discount this thought, but in the Vegas game there were 5 wolves on the block out of 6 candidates day three, so it's certainly a possibility here.

I'm doing this especially hearing Hoop's thoughts, because I've harbored some suspicions about their success.

[JAG]

I have to do some work, will not be participating for a but but will try and follow along and chime in later.

[Autumn]

I'm coming at this from the standpoint of the team who is winning the race. But if I've got my choice, I would rather win at werewolf than at the race. And I want to try and suss out if there is werewolf-type information to be learned from the race.

I think our team has as much, if not more, to lose in disclosing info on the racing stuff up to this point. We're giving you info on what we have left in the tank to hold our lead, which should allow other teams to better target us in terms of catching up.

If you think there's any chance there's something unexplained there, I think we should have it out, as I've been wondering that. Is there a particular event you did better at than expected? Do you think we should reveal total effort spent? I am willing to spill some beans from our team, if we can figure out how to approach this.

[EagleFan]

Important for Friday!!!

I just realized that I will not be able to run the leg/lynch votes for Friday. I have two other commitments tomorrow night.

The options are....


1) I can set the deadline for Saturday.

2) I can move the deadline to Sunday night (same deadline times but on Sunday).

3) It can be skipped and we resume on Monday.

[hoopsguy]

I would think the most fair options, given how people aren't here on weekends are either to have the deadline at regular Friday time (and process it whenever you can) or extend it to Monday at same time.

[Chief Rum]

hoops doubts cut both ways, of course. He is wondering why I am still alive; I could certainly ask the same thing of him.

In any case, I am fine with revealing race stuff, if that helps clear up wolf influence in the race. The problem is, I have not seen any indication that there is a connection between the two in this game. I think all we will discover is that hoops and I hit on the right formula slightly better than some others, and managed to get the lead, and that now whatever way we're doing it will be out in the open, and we'll lose that advantage. Ergo, no advantage for us in WW, a disadvantage for us in the race.

But I agree with hoops that the WW is more improtant, and if that info puts people's minds at ease, I am all for it.

As for why we're still alive, I think I am still alive because I have been under constant scrutiny the whole game. The wolves no doubt believe the village will finally just lynch me. I couldn't tell you why hoops is alive--until yesterday, he had next to no heat on him. Maybe his busy schedule has kept him from being a threat the wolves are concerned about right now.

[Chief Rum]

Keep in mind, BTW, we're only up 5 minutes in the race currently. Not like we're coasting to victory here.

[EagleFan]

I would think the most fair options, given how people aren't here on weekends are either to have the deadline at regular Friday time (and process it whenever you can) or extend it to Monday at same time.

Shoot, that was going to be my 4th option that I forgot. Keep the deadlines as they are and I will process everything when I am able to (which would probably be sometime early AM on Saturday at the earliest 1-2 AM EST, in that area at the earliest I would guess).

[Passacaglia]

I'm fine with any option.

[EagleFan]

dola:

If everyone is okay with that option I will go with that. The deadlines would remain the same tomorrow but will be processed when I am back and available to.

If there is enough support for a weekend deadline I would do that, with Sunday as my preference (if people want to be around for a known time when the writeup will occur).

I wanted to give the option though, so there is a known deadline for people to check in for.

[Chief Rum]

I am fine with any option as well, but I think the best way is the unlisted fourth option hoops suggested and which you have here.

As for weekend play, I am personally fine with that, but I know most others aren't, so it's probably best to just go to Monday after Friday night's deadline.

[GoldenEagle]

I am fine with whatever.

[GoldenEagle]

If you put a gun to my head right now and asked me who the three wolves left are, I would guess JAG, Mckerney, and ntn. But that is just my opinion. JAG seems to be really taking up for those two.

[hoopsguy]

OK, here is the first info on aggression/effort.

Assuming I'm running the numbers correctly, we have 5 remaining points of aggression and have used less than 10 total points of effort between the two of us.

[Danny]

vote jag

I know my vote doesn't count, but this is where I would be going.

[Chief Rum]

OK, here is the first info on aggression/effort.

Assuming I'm running the numbers correctly, we have 5 remaining points of aggression and have used less than 10 total points of effort between the two of us.

Without going back to look at my PMs (I still have all of them), I believe that is correct. I think with the ones we used yesterday, I got us even, at maybe 12 or 13 left? Somewhere around there.

[Danny]

And with the argument I created for jag last night, I think there is very little chance a wolf doesn't piggback on that and vote him if jag was a villager.

[Danny]

I also think that focusing on the race results / happenings (which we know very little about mechanically) in terms of the werewolf portion would be a mistake and could be a wolf tactic to distract from other things.

[Chief Rum]

If I were more interested in being funny than surviving, I would vote JAG now.

[JAG]

If you put a gun to my head right now and asked me who the three wolves left are, I would guess JAG, Mckerney, and ntn. But that is just my opinion. JAG seems to be really taking up for those two.

I won't argue the ntn thing as I put him up high in trust, but I'm taking up for mckerney, who I put 6th out of 9 players? That's misrepresenting what I posted. As for ntn, I've laid out my reasoning why I think he's ok, meanwhile you've voted him 3 of 5 days and I still don't understand what your case is against him. Can you please enlighten me?

[Chief Rum]

I won't argue the ntn thing as I put him up high in trust, but I'm taking up for mckerney, who I put 6th out of 9 players? That's misrepresenting what I posted. As for ntn, I've laid out my reasoning why I think he's ok, meanwhile you've voted him 3 of 5 days and I still don't understand what your case is against him. Can you please enlighten me?

:+1:

[Danny]

If I were more interested in being funny than surviving, I would vote JAG now.

Yes but now that I've said that, its ok ;)

[hoopsguy]

I also think that focusing on the race results / happenings (which we know very little about mechanically) in terms of the werewolf portion would be a mistake and could be a wolf tactic to distract from other things.

I'm just surprised that we've won (I think) three legs of this race, when they haven't all been tailor-made for our talents. We've planned well, but we haven't spent many points behind them.

I don't understand why other teams haven't been able to outperform us - I certainly don't think we have any uber-skills or great point distribution. It may end up being a distraction, but I'm not intending it as such.

[hoopsguy]

Gun to head right now, I think I would vote Passacaglia. If we were villager/villager/villager yesterday I just don't think we are going to end up winning this game. So I'm hoping there is something to pull from yesterday because trying to sift through Day 1 feels like a borderline futile exercise.

[Autumn]

I'm just surprised that we've won (I think) three legs of this race, when they haven't all been tailor-made for our talents. We've planned well, but we haven't spent many points behind them.

I don't understand why other teams haven't been able to outperform us - I certainly don't think we have any uber-skills or great point distribution. It may end up being a distraction, but I'm not intending it as such.

I'm really surprised to hear this. So you've spent 10 effort points between you and no aggression? So spending an average of 1 effort point each, each day? I can say that NTN and I have spent a great deal more than that. In addition we've been pretty darn well suited to almost all the Detours. So, yes, Hoops, color me surprised you're over an hour ahead of us.

[Danny]

I'm just surprised that we've won (I think) three legs of this race, when they haven't all been tailor-made for our talents. We've planned well, but we haven't spent many points behind them.

I don't understand why other teams haven't been able to outperform us - I certainly don't think we have any uber-skills or great point distribution. It may end up being a distraction, but I'm not intending it as such.

I think ef said early in the game there was a random / dice component. You guys probably have rolled well. And I know from my teams standpoint we had really bad planning / skills for the challenges the first couple days, so maybe your success is also helped by not screwing up and having a bad day or two. Its just whatever the reason, I doubt it has much if anything to do with the ww component, and this coming from someone with a known wolf partner

[hoopsguy]

I'm really surprised to hear this. So you've spent 10 effort points between you and no aggression? So spending an average of 1 effort point each, each day? I can say that NTN and I have spent a great deal more than that. In addition we've been pretty darn well suited to almost all the Detours. So, yes, Hoops, color me surprised you're over an hour ahead of us.

I feel like we've put together good/clear instructions on what to do each day, and been careful to avoid any logistics issues (understand airports, try to identify other transportation challenges) but not to the point where we should have been doing this well.

Anyway, if there is a suspicion that we're slowing down the WW conversation by talking about this I'll let it go. And be very curious to see if there was some linkage when the post-game comes around.

[Autumn]

Hoops, did you and Chief ever discuss aiding or interfering with any other teams with your aggression points?

[Danny]

Yeah for all we know someone winning a leg or something unlocked the day kill, but we have no way of even having a marginally good idea if that is true. Better left for fun discussion in the end game than using it to try and catch wolves

[Chief Rum]

Autumn, it's more like 14-16 effort points between the two of us.

I don't know how much it matters, but we have also sent EF meticulous instructions for each day, with detailed travel plans and preparations for the roadblock/detour, using our best guesses as to what those competitions will end up being.

As an example of the level of instruction we have provided, I even had us buy traditional Islamic female outfits, with head and face cover, prior to leaving India yesterday, so that we wouldn't be waylaid by fundamentalist Muslims upset at not covering ourselves up. Of course, this all went to naught when hoops inevotably stripped down to her underwear.

[Chief Rum]

Hoops, did you and Chief ever discuss aiding or interfering with any other teams with your aggression points?

Not hoops, but I am sure he'll back me upon this.

I think I was the only one who advocated using an aggression point, and it wasn't against another team, but in support of ourselves, a couple legs ago. hoops actually talked me out of it, saying we might need all of our points at the end.

[hoopsguy]

Hoops, did you and Chief ever discuss aiding or interfering with any other teams with your aggression points?

No, not at any point in time has that come up.

[hoopsguy]

No, not at any point in time has that come up.

Actually, Chief is right that he talked about using one to support ourselves - but we have not once talked about trying to impact the performance of other teams.

[Chief Rum]

Actually, Chief is right that he talked about using one to support ourselves - but we have not once talked about trying to impact the performance of other teams.

Yeah, actually, I must not have read the rules that close, because I didn't recall seeing you could use it on other teams and only realized it from what I read was happening to other teams in the rac ehere in thread. My pervasive impression of the aggression points has been that they are for our own use to aid us, not to hinder others.

[Danny]

In contrast to hoops, I provided as little instruction as possible the first couple days. It went like, fly here, I do this challenge, then mau does that challenge and then go here.

[Autumn]

Yeah for all we know someone winning a leg or something unlocked the day kill, but we have no way of even having a marginally good idea if that is true. Better left for fun discussion in the end game than using it to try and catch wolves

I see your point, but also think it's another avenue where we can get hints and suspicions, just like from in-thread chatter. If someone's got a suspicion I think it's best to talk about it here.

[Danny]

I stand by what I said, if JAG was a villager I think its very likely a wolf would have piggied back on my arguments as a now trusted villager and made an early vote that way. Not vote came

[hoopsguy]

Well, I also 100% know that I can trust Danny's reasons for wanting to dismiss the data so I'm willing to follow that rather than ruminating on it more.

I think we're screwed six ways to Sunday if it is a quiet pack of wolves remaining, or even if 2 of the wolves are low key players. We're going to likely have some kind of a reckoning today between me/Chief/Autumn/JAG/Pass before the day is done. I just don't see it going another direction, so I hope that there is a wolf or two among this group.

[Passacaglia]

And with the argument I created for jag last night, I think there is very little chance a wolf doesn't piggback on that and vote him if jag was a villager.

Can one piggyback on a vote that doesn't exist?

[EagleFan]

vote jag

I know my vote doesn't count, but this is where I would be going.

Not to be a prick but please no more bolded votes from players that are out of the WW portion of the game but still in the race... Thank you.

I skip over anything not bolded when looking at the votes so it doesn't matter to me if you say it just don't bold it please.

(trying to keep it as easy on myself as possible when trying to recalculate the votes later)

[Passacaglia]

If I were more interested in being funny than surviving, I would vote JAG now.

Sounds wolfish to me.